investing

We try to separate the falling knives from the buying opportunities. (00:21) Jim Gillies and Dylan Lewis discuss: - NYCB’s credit downgrade, material weaknesses, and current struggles. - Stitch Fix’s latest earnings, and whether the clothing company could be a turnaround play. - Why Jim likes the prospects for beat-up fintech company PROG holdings. (14:46) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp talk about trends in travel and tips if you’re trying to avoid the crowds and fees next time you step on a plane. Companies discussed: NYCB, SFIX, PROG Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Jim Gillies, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rich Guy Gavin asks, "Is the 15-year mortgage worth it?" Plus, given how few people can afford them nowadays, Katie and Henah chat through if the 15-year mortgage is dead. We run the numbers, the factors to consider, and some workarounds to make the 30-year mortgage more appealing. Welcome back to #RichGirlRoundup, Money with Katie's weekly segment where Katie and MWK's Executive Producer Henah answer your burning money questions. Each month, we'll put out a call for questions on her Instagram (@moneywithkatie). New episodes every week. Reminder: This is not financial advice; we are not certified financial professionals—please do your own due diligence. Transcript, show resources, production credits, and more can be found at: https://moneywithkatie.com/rgr-15-year-mortgage. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Simple Path to Wealth by JL Collins is financial independence canon. The premise boils down to elegant simplicity: Spend 50% of your income and invest the other 50% in one specific index fund, VTSAX. We ask the Godfather of FI about it all—covering everything from his reliance on VTSAX and the American economy, to managing market crashes, to the debate over homeownership. Reminder: This is not financial advice; please talk to a certified financial professional and do your own due diligence. Transcripts, show notes, production credits, and more can be found at: https://moneywithkatie.com/simple-path-to-wealth-jl-collins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Motley Fool CEO and co-founder Tom Gardner caught up with longtime Fool Contributor Brian Stoffel to talk through Tom’s fervent belief that AI is the next internet, but better. In this segment from a recent episode of our premium podcast, Stock Advisor Roundtable, Brian and Tom also discuss: The future of fraud detection. How to succeed at thinking clearly. The amorality of big tech companies. To gain access to all episodes of “Stock Advisor Roundtable” and get two stock picks each month, become a Motley Fool Stock Advisor member here: www.fool.com/signup If you’re already a Stock Advisor member, check out other episodes of Stock Advisor Roundtable here. Tickers discussed: NVDA, TSLA, ABNB, SQ, NOW, EQT, META, KNSA Host: Brian Stoffel Guest: Tom Gardner Producer: Mary Long Engineer: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This Week in Startups is brought to you by…

OpenPhone. Create business phone numbers for you and your team that work through an app on your smartphone or desktop. TWiST listeners can get an extra 20% off any plan for your first 6 months at openphone.com/twist

DevSquad. Most dev agencies only offer developers. Why? Because product management is hard. Get an entire product team for the cost of one US developer plus 10% off at http://devsquad.com/twist.

Squarespace. Turn your idea into a new website! Go to Squarespace.com/TWIST for a free trial. When you’re ready to launch, use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain.

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Today’s show:

Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner, and Jason Calacanis join David Weisburd to discuss the market downturn's impact on startups, including shutdowns and shifting investment strategies (1:29). They also debate the AI boom (54:50), chatbots' future potential and hype (1:01:11), and which tech giants may perform best or worst in 2024 (1:20:32).

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Timestamps:

(0:00) David Weisburd hosts Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner, & Jason Calacanis to discuss the state of tech markets

(1:29) Startup shutdowns in 2023 vs dotcom crash

(3:52) Perspective on current market from Bill Gurley

(7:52) Brad's outlook on startup shutdowns continuing in 2024

(11:48) OpenPhone - Get 20% off your first six months at https://openphone.com/twist

(13:16) Different investor perspectives based on investment stage

(16:47) Altimeter's recent investing activity

(25:32) DevSquad - Get an entire product team for the cost of one US developer plus 10% off at http://devsquad.com/twist

(26:30) Reflecting on past IPOs and paths to building businesses for growth

(36:40) Squarespace - Use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain at https://Squarespace.com/twist

(38:07) State of Series B/C deals in 2023 vs 2021 peak

(42:42) Why now is a great time to start a company

(47:17) Jason's theories for success in venture

(49:42) Abundance of technical talent in Silicon Valley and impact of AI on company size and competition

(54:50) AI investments in 2024

(1:01:11) Launguage models raising large rounds quickly and the potential for LLMs to hit a ceiling soon

(1:05:18) The best case for Meta being a leader in AI and Apple's position

(1:08:55) Importance of voice recognition for AI interfaces, challenges of enabling transactions via AI, and consumers choosing services via AI

(1:20:32) Picks for best and worst performing tech giants in 2024

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LINKS:

Unicorn Investors article: https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/top-unicorn-investors-eoy-2023/

Bill Gurley's Above the Crowd article: https://abovethecrowd.com/2011/05/24/all-revenue-is-not-created-equal-the-keys-to-the-10x-revenue-club/

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Follow David

X: https://twitter.com/DWeisburd

David's Podcast: https://limitedpartnerpodcast.com/

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Follow Brad

X: https://twitter.com/altcap

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Follow Bill

X: https://twitter.com/bgurley

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Follow Jason:

X: https://twitter.com/jason

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jason

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis

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Great 2023 interviews: Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland

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Check out Jason’s suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanis

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Follow TWiST:

Substack: https://twistartups.substack.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/TWiStartups

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/thisweekin

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Subscribe to the Founder University Podcast: https://www.founder.university/podcast

Apple will have to halt sales of its latest Watch products this week due to patent disputes… unless the president’s office decides to step in. (00:21) Tim Beyers and Dylan Lewis discuss: - Why you might not be able to buy the Apple Watch soon in the U.S. - Comcast’s data breach affecting 30+ million customers. - Fedex’s latest results and why they might be better than the market thinks. (16:39) Mary Long caught up with Kristy Akullian, Senior Member of the iShares investment strategy team at Blackrock. for a look at her team's 2024 outlook and one country to keep an eye on. Companies discussed: AAPL, MASI, CMCSA, FDX Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Tim Beyers, Mary Long, Kristy Akullian Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

When you have about $150 billion in cash on hand, you’re never out of position for making a decision. Shane Parrish is the founder of Farnam Street, the host of “The Knowledge Project” podcast, and the author of “Clear Thinking: Turning Ordinary Moments Into Extraordinary Results.” Mary Long caught up with Parrish to discuss: - Decision making lessons from Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Daniel Kahneman. - How to create rules to become a more disciplined investor. - Tips for writing an investment thesis. Tickers discussed: BRK.A, BRK.B Host: Mary Long Guest: Shane Parrish Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This Week in Startups is brought to you by…

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Coda. A new doc that brings words, tables and teams together. All your valuable data, plans, objectives, and strategies in one place. Go to https://coda.io/twist to get a $1,000 credit!

Miro. Working remotely doesn’t mean you need to feel disconnected from your team. Miro is an online whiteboard that brings teams together - anytime, anywhere. Go to https://miro.com/startups to sign up for a FREE account with unlimited team members.

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Today’s show:

Zach Coelius joins Jason to discuss the phases of early-stage startups (2:01), break down the state of VC (13:17), answer live questions from the audience (22:36), and much more!

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Time stamps:

(0:00) Zach Coelius joins Jason

(2:01) The three phases of early-stage startups

(10:00) Fount - Get $500 off an executive health coach at https://fount.bio/twist

(11:31) Advantages that Builder/Founder startups possess

(13:17) The state of VC: The LP and GP relationship, post-ZIRP, and startup soft landings

(21:10) Coda - Get a $1,000 startup credit at https://coda.io/twist

(22:36) Question: How do you describe PMF in the simplest terms possible

(29:20) Question: How hard is it for first-time founders to raise pre-seed?

(39:46) Miro - Sign up for a free account at https://miro.com/startups

(41:11) Question: I will be in the Bay Area for two weeks… any advice on how to efficiently meet VCs to pitch my startup?

(45:56) Question: What are attributes of companies that are getting funded today? More stable and breakeven? Different industries? What is working today?

(54:49) Breaking news: Caroline Ellison, CEO of Alameda Research testifies for first time today in SBF’s trial

(1:01:49) Cruise robotaxi fleet deployed in San Francisco

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Follow Zach: https://twitter.com/zachcoelius

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Read LAUNCH Fund 4 Deal Memo: https://www.launch.co/four

Apply for Funding: https://www.launch.co/apply

Buy ANGEL: https://www.angelthebook.com

Great recent interviews: Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland, PrayingForExits, Jenny Lefcourt

Check out Jason’s suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanis

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Follow Jason:

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jason

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jason

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis

*

Follow TWiST:

Substack: https://twistartups.substack.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/TWiStartups

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/thisweekin

*

Subscribe to the Founder University Podcast: https://www.founder.university/podcast

The shiniest thing in Las Vegas is also a publicly traded company. (00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Nick Sciple discuss: - How consumer spending held up as the economy cooled. - Credit card companies benefiting from a shift toward experiences. - The business behind the dramatic new venue, Sphere. Plus, (9:41) Robert Brokamp interviews Roger Young, CFP and Thought Leadership Director at T. Rowe Price about the company’s research on retirement spending. Companies mentioned: LYV, ABNB, MSGS, SPHR, TROW Hosts:Ricky Mulvey, Robert Brokamp Guests: Nick Sciple, Roger Young Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Blue Angels are an elite team of U.S. Naval pilots who maneuver $40 million planes at hundreds of miles per hour while flying mere inches from each other. What’s it like to be in the cockpit? Ricky Mulvey caught up with John “GUCCI” Foley, a former lead solo pilot for the Blue Angels, a keynote speaker, and the author of “Fearless Success.” They discuss: How to find your centerpoint – in airshows and investing What it’s like to sit on a multi-million-dollar sell option And the importance of being “glad to be here” Host: Ricky Mulvey Guest: John Foley Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

“The essence of investing is not maximizing returns, but rather maximizing odds of success.” William Bernstein is a financial theorist, neurologist, and the best-selling author of “The Four Pillars of Investing: Lessons for Building a Winning Portfolio,” now in its second edition. Motley Fool Senior Advisor Robert Brokamp caught up with Bernstein to discuss: - Why a 2% real return is “quite spectacular” - The math and Shakespeare of investing - Why value stocks may have fallen out of fashion - What the history of the stock market reveals about modern bubbles Host: Robert Brokamp Guest: William Bernstein Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The market’s had a surprisingly strong 2023, but investors might be eying easy low-risk yields elsewhere. Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss: - (00:21) How some investors might be tempted to move out of stocks given the yields elsewhere - (9:41) The latest with Disney – its standoff with Charter, plans to take full ownership of Hulu, and what investors should make of its lost decade - (19:11) NYC’s “de facto ban” for Airbnb, what it means for the company and says about the state of housing and short-term rentals. (31:44) Jason and Matt break down two stocks on their radar: Hershey and Masimo. Stocks discussed: DIS, NFLX, ABNB, UBER Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Matt Argersinger, Jason Moser Engineer: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The outlook for major retailers depends a lot on whether their core customers are feeling the pinch. (00:38) Jason Moser and Bill Mann discuss: - Troubling signs on consumer savings rates dropping and more people dipping into their 401ks. - How the consumer crunch is affecting retailers like Dollar General, Big Lots, Five Below and Chewy.. - Why Lululemon is bucking the trend, and Salesforce is cruising despite tighter budgets in enterprise software too. (19:06) Certified Financial Planner Matt Frankel talks about how student loan borrowers can prepare for payments to begin again in October and the new programs in place to help borrowers. - You can find the Department of Education’s website and resources here. - And here’s the White House’s fact sheet on the SAVE plan (30:34) Jason and Bill break down two stocks on their radar: TakeTwo Interactive and Samsara. Stocks discussed: DG, BIG, FIVE, CHWY, LULU, CRM, TTWO, IOT Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Bill MAnn, Jason Moser Engineer: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This Week in Startups is presented by:

Squarespace. Turn your idea into a new website! Go to Squarespace.com/TWIST for a free trial. When you’re ready to launch, use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain.

LinkedIn Marketing. To redeem a $100 LinkedIn ad credit and launch your first campaign, go to linkedin.com/thisweekinstartups

Fin can’t burn its mouth on hot pizza. Or wave at someone who wasn’t waving at them. Fin can resolve half of your customer support tickets instantly before they reach your team. Meet Fin. A breakthrough AI bot by Intercom – ready to join your support team today. Visit https://intercom.com/fin

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Today’s show:

Nick joins Jason, who breaks down a report that Shein has confidentially registered for a US IPO (1:24). This leads to a discussion about Shein’s alleged unethical labor practices and voting with your dollar (11:22), Shein’s influencer stunt that backfired, DWAC’s insider trading debacle (47:25), and self-driving vehicle footage being used as evidence in criminal cases (33:27).

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Time stamps:

(0:00) Nick joins Jason for a full news show

(1:24) Shein confidentially registers for a US IPO

(9:54) Squarespace - Use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain at https://Squarespace.com/TWIST

(11:22) Shein’s alleged labor practices and voting with your dollar

(31:58) LinkedIn Marketing - Get a $100 LinkedIn ad credit at https://linkedin.com/thisweekinstartups

(33:27) Shein’s TikTok "factory washing" campaign

(40:37) Fin - Try Fin, Intercom's new AI customer support chatbot, at https://intercom.com/fin

(41:21) Jason’s advice for Dani Carbonari

(47:25) Trump’s return to Twitter + Trump SPAC insider trading debacle

(57:03) Police forces using autonomous vehicle footage to prosecute suspects

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Read LAUNCH Fund 4 Deal Memo: https://www.launch.co/four

Apply for Funding: https://www.launch.co/apply

Buy ANGEL: https://www.angelthebook.com

Great recent interviews: Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland, PrayingForExits, Jenny Lefcourt

Check out Jason’s suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanis

*

Follow Jason:

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jason

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jason

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis

*

Follow TWiST:

Substack: https://twistartups.substack.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/TWiStartups

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/thisweekin

*

Subscribe to the Founder University Podcast: https://www.founder.university/podcast

This Week in Startups is presented by:

iConnections is a platform to connect and meet with elite capital allocators through their online platform and bespoke events. The first 25 VC funds to sign up for iConnections Miami 2024 event in January of next year will receive a 20% discount! Head to iConnections.io/twist to sign up today!

Crowdbotics. Great ideas can change the world, and Crowdbotics is the fastest way to turn those ideas into code. Get a free scoping session for your next big app idea at crowdbotics.com/twist.

Vanta. Compliance and security shouldn't be a deal-breaker for startups to win new business. Vanta makes it easy for companies to get a SOC 2 report fast. TWiST listeners can get $1,000 off for a limited time at vanta.com/twist.

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Today’s show:

First, StoneAlgo CEO Devin Jones joins Jason for a jam session on scaling his startup, which is building “Zillow for diamonds” (4:38). Then, Mar Hershenson gives a presentation on “The Art of Picking.” (38:19)

Mar’s talk was recorded live at LAUNCH Angel Summit.

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Follow StoneAlgo: https://twitter.com/stonealgo

Follow Mar: https://twitter.com/MarHershenson

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Time stamps:

(0:00) Cold intros DO work!

(1:30) Jason explains what LAUNCH looks for in startup investments

(4:38) Jason intros StoneAlgo CEO Devin Jones, who breaks down his startup: “Zillow for Diamonds”

(14:27) iConnections - Get 20% off iConnections Miami 2024 event at http://iconnections.io/twist

(15:58) Bootstrapping StoneAlgo as a side project, never underestimating categories, understanding the diamond market

(26:10) Crowdbotics - Get a free scoping session for your next big app idea at crowdbotics.com/twist

(27:37) Capital efficiency, frugality, how Devin scored an investment off of a cold email

(37:13) Vanta - Get $1000 off your SOC 2 at https://vanta.com/twist

(38:19) Pear VC’s Mar Hershenson gives a talk on “The Art of Picking” live from LAUNCH Angel Summit

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Read LAUNCH Fund 4 Deal Memo: https://www.launch.co/four

Apply for Funding: https://www.launch.co/apply

Buy ANGEL: https://www.angelthebook.com

Great recent interviews: Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland, PrayingForExits, Jenny Lefcourt

Check out Jason’s suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanis

*

Follow Jason:

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jason

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jason

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis

*

Follow TWiST:

Substack: https://twistartups.substack.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/TWiStartups

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/thisweekin

*

Subscribe to the Founder University Podcast: https://www.founder.university/podcast

DraftKings wants to consolidate the sports betting market, but it still has a long road to profitability. (00:14) Ricky Mulvey and Nick Sciple discuss:-PayPal selling off more than $40 billion of buy now, pay later loans. -The payment processor's capital allocation strategy. -The DraftKings bid to buy a rival operator. -Why sports betting companies have a customer stickiness problem. Plus, (12:20) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp answer listener questions about 401(k)s, investing, and cash management. Companies/tickers mentioned: PYPL, KKR, AFRM, DKNG, TQQQ "Women Power Rule Breakers - A Sparks Conversation" event registration https://fool.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_BbdTqNGmQXKbWOx_zlb7bw#/registration Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Nick Sciple, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp Engineers: Tim Sparks, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

George Soros, the legendary investor, philanthropist and right-wing target, is handing control of his $25 billion empire to his fourth child—Alexander Soros, a former party boy and self-described center-left thinker. WSJ’s Gregory Zuckerman on how Alex Soros plans to deploy his family’s vast fortune. Further Reading: - George Soros Hands Control to His 37-Year-Old Son - The Soros Era Is Over on Wall Street Interested in other succession stories? Listen to: - The World's Richest Person Is Planning for Succession - Scholastic's Succession Drama Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Carl Icahn gets what he was after as Illumina’s CEO steps down but what does this mean for the company’s potential big acquisition? (00:21) Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss: - If Illumina’s CEO’s exit will impact the company’s moves to acquire Grail. - Carl Icahn’s history of activist investing. - Thoma Bravo’s success in buying companies and repackaging them for sale. (14:37) Ricky Mulvey interviews Anjay Nagpal, host of the podcast “Brokers, Bagmen, and Moles” about the curious history of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and its ramifications on today’s investing universe. Companies discussed: ILMN, IEP, NDAQ, MSFT, ATVI Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Jason Moser, Ricky Mulvey, Anjay Nagpal Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Low Earth orbit now has some real estate problems. Deidre Woollard caught up with Ashlee Vance, author of “When the Heavens Went on Sale: The Misfits and Geniuses Racing to Put Space Within Reach.” They discuss: - The new business opportunity in clearing space junk - How a self-taught engineer created a commercially successful rocket company - The massive trade-offs that space companies make by going public Companies discussed: RKLB, SPCE Host: Deidre Woollard Guest: Ashlee Vance Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The graphics processing maker became $200 billion more valuable in a single day. (00:21) Jim Gillies and Ricky Mulvey discuss: - Nvidia’s blockbuster quarter and valuation questions to consider. - The history of tech cycles and lessons for investors. - If Best Buy needs sales growth to reward shareholders. Plus, (16:21) Tim Beyers and Meilin Quinn interview Digital Ocean CEO Yancey Spruill about how the cloud service provider differentiates itself from competitors like Microsoft and Amazon. Companies discussed: NVDA, BBY, QCOM, CSCO, INTC, MSFT, DOCN, AMZN Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Jim Gillies, Yancey Spruill, Meilin Quinn, Tim Beyers Engineers: Dan Boyd, Heather Horton Stock Advisor Roundtable podcast: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0RhY5qYNv1l2AyS4g8LV1d?si=ded6d6d1cdda46cb Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices