market cycles

✨ DEBRIEF | Ryan & David unpacking the episode:
https://www.bankless.com/debrief-the-raoul-pal-interview 

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Bankless Nation, we’re having none-other than Raoul Pal, a frequent guest on this show, who needs no introduction.

Expect to understand debasement, how to navigate the different crypto seasons, and Raoul’s secular thesis. Besides his key learnings, Raoul also gives a peak into his portfolio and shares some hot takes on the current state of AI.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
6:35 SEC Suing Uniswap?
9:57 US Regulation Handbrakes
19:48 State of the Bull Market
29:45 Navigating Interest Rates
35:40 Understanding Debasement
47:25 Crypto Adoption
57:11 Crypto Summer
1:03:12 The L1 Race
1:07:17 The Role of ETFs
1:13:37 The Next Winter
1:17:52 Crypto Skeptics
1:22:15 The Secular Thesis
1:26:20 Raoul’s Portfolio
1:30:47 Real Vision
1:33:01 The State of AI
1:36:31 Closing & Disclaimers

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RESOURCES

Raoul Pal
https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI  

Real Vision Festival of Learning
https://www.realvision.com/festival-of-learning 

Raoul Pal The Journey Man
https://www.youtube.com/@RaoulPalTJM 

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Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.

Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets.

See our investment disclosures here:
https://www.bankless.com/disclosures  

Welcome back to Bankless, Morgan Housel. Morgan has written "The Psychology of Money", and most recently "Same As Ever" which discuss the dynamics and psychology around money and markets.

In this episode Morgan drops lesson after lesson that you can apply to your own investing strategies and life broadly. It's a masterclass that is sure to have you reflecting on the decisions you make as we enter what may possibly be the next bull market. 

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✨ DEBRIEF | Ryan & David unpacking the episode:
https://www.bankless.com/debrief-morgan-housel 

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🏹 Airdrop Hunter is HERE, join your first HUNT today
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🌎 Linea DeFi Voyage
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🔗 CELO | CEL2 COMING SOON
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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
6:49 History Always Repeats
11:44 Can We Break The Cycle?
16:49 THE BEAR MARKET
21:20 Psychology Of Investing
26:45 The Value Of Hard Things
29:26 Attaching Identity To Ideas
36:52 Markets Have Memory
42:23 The Key To Being Happy
47:27 Competing Against Yourself
55:32 Our Relationship With Money
58:51 The Power Of Incentives
1:04:48 Don't Try Too Hard
1:11:19 Investing Strategies
1:15:09 The Value of Imperfection
1:20:43 Optimism and Pessimism
1:24:41 Crypto's Barbell Thesis
1:27:53 Good Things Happen Slow, Bad Things Happen Fast
1:33:27 Final Bit Of Advice

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RESOURCES

Book: https://www.morganhousel.com/ 

Morgan: https://twitter.com/morganhousel 

Morgan Last on Bankless: https://youtu.be/9VflkmluTVQ 

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Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:
https://www.bankless.com/disclosures⁠  

In theory, the Federal Reserve operates by tightening the supply of credit. Or at least making it more close. Yet so far, despite the rate hikes, the economy has remained resilient. And credit spreads have remained surprisingly tight. So what's going on? Where are the risks? Why are some pockets of the credit markets showing weakness, while others are rock solid? On this episode of the podcast, which was recorded live at the Future Proof conference in Huntington Beach, California, we speak with Wayne Dahl, a managing director and investment risk officer at Oaktree Capital Management, to get a broader lay of the land.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We welcome back Founder and CEO of Binance, CZ for his second appearance on Bankless. Last time CZ was on, Terra Luna hadn’t collapsed yet and FTX was still competing with Binance. A lot has changed. 

In today’s episode, we cover it all. Here were some of the questions we discussed:
1) How can we tell what’s real vs. FUD with Binance?
2) What Happened with FTX from CZ’s perspective? 
3) The difference between the current bear market vs. previous ones
4) Community questions from Justin Drake & Degen Spartan

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✨ DEBRIEF | Unpacking the episode: 
https://www.bankless.com/debrief-cz 

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🪂Airdrop Alpha is waiting for you on Bankless 🪂
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🛞MANTLE | MODULAR LAYER 2 NETWORK
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TIMESTAMPS: 

0:00 Intro
6:54 How’s CZ 2023?
8:35 Why is Binance a FUD Magnet? 
10:52 FTX & Ledger
16:57 Binance Transparency
26:40 Current Mood of Crypto
29:35 Another Cycle? 
30:58 Binance’s Bear Market Strategy 
36:44 Crypto’s Biggest Opportunity 
39:48 Why Crypto Is Good for the World
42:06 The Exchange Wars
48:49 Best Regulation Jurisdictions 
51:48 Justin Drake Question
54:00 Will Binance Buy a Bank?
56:30 BNB Chain Rollup on Ethereum?
59:13 CZ’s Thoughts on Twitter Post-Elon
1:00:36 CZ’s Bear Market Advice
1:04:46 Closing & Disclaimers 

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RESOURCES:

CZ
https://twitter.com/cz_binance 

CZ’s 1st Bankless Appearance
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lldGpGsUcWw&ab_channel=Bankless  

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Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.

Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here:
https://www.bankless.com/disclosures 

Merryn Somerset Webb and Bloomberg Wealth senior reporter and author of the daily Money Distilled newsletter John Stepek are reunited to give listeners a taste of what is to come on Merryn Talks Money. They talk investment tools for inflationary times, strategies for managing savings and share their outlooks for the global economy. New episodes start every Friday starting December 9th. From Bloomberg Podcasts.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this episode of Bankless, we welcome back DCinvestor and Eric Conner to share their multicycle bear market war stories. But that’s not all!

They also unpack why they keep on deciding to stay every cycle, what’s different about this cycle vs. previous cycles, the role leverage and macro conditions have played, and their hard-hitting, gigabrain advice for first-time cyclers and multicyclers alike.

Survive and advance, anon. We’re going to make it.

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📣 NOTIONAL | Real DeFi Yield
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Topics Covered:

0:00 Intro
4:03 Being a Multicycle Vet
11:31 Market Phases
19:12 Credit to Staying
26:03 High Conviction High Loss
32:37 Regulator Fear
41:31 Lessons From This Cycle
49:00 Leverage
56:34 Macro Conditions
1:30:50 The Merge vs. Macro
1:09:00 Advice for Newcomers

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Resources:

DCinvestor
https://twitter.com/iamDCinvestor 

Eric Conner
https://twitter.com/econoar 

Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation
https://www.amazon.com/Devil-Take-Hindmost-Financial-Speculation/dp/0452281806 

-----
Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.

Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here:
https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/bankless-disclosures 

Is the property market about to crash?

When the market starts to get heated, people get excited. There are those who take action and make money, but others get really nervous.   

What happens when we reach the top of the market? Is it a good time to buy? 

In this episode Rob & Rob are going to cover just that! And they’re sharing some interesting examples of what the numbers look like when you invest at the top of the market. 

So, is it wise to invest at the peak? 

Tune in to find out. 

In the news 

This week’s news story is from The Guardian and the headline reads ‘HSBC offers sub-1% mortgage as interest rate war intensifies’. 

So, if you’ve got a 40% deposit, are a residential buyer and got a good credit history and you want a two-year fixed with HSBC, then you’re in luck because you can now get a mortgage for under 1%. 

The last time they offered a rate this low was five years ago, and HSBC aren’t the only ones. It seems a number of lenders are battling it out for the lowest interest rates. 

So, it’s certainly the time to be re-mortgaging or moving house right now. 

Hub Extra 

This week’s Hub Extra comes from Rob D and whilst it won’t help you decide when to buy your next property, it is a great piece of entertainment.  

It’s a TV show called ‘Ted Lasso’ on Apple TV and it’s a comedy about an American football coach who gets hired to manage a British premier league team even though he has no experience what-so-ever.  

It’s quite a daft programme, but Rob D thinks it’s really funny and worth the watch if you need an unwind over the weekend.  

Let’s get social 

We’d love to hear what you think of this week’s Property Podcast over on Facebook, Twitter or Instagram. You might even have a topic you’d like us to cover in the future - if so, pop us a message on social and we’ll see what we can do. 

Make sure you’ve liked and subscribed to our YouTube channel where we upload new content every week!  

If that wasn’t enough, you can also join our friendly property community on the Property Hub forum. 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It goes without saying that 2020 was a year like no other when it comes to the markets. A historic crash, and then a raging recovery, all set against the backdrop of a pandemic and deeply depressed economy. One implication of this is that trading strategies based on historic rules and patterns didn't perform particularly well in this environment. On this episode, we speak with Corey Hoffstein, a fund manager at Newfound Research, which employs trend following and momentum signals in its trading. He talks about what worked and didn't last year and what that says about overall market structure.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Wouldn’t it be great to know what the future holds? Today’s episode of The Property Podcast is a very ambitious one. But we’re tackling it head on!

2020 is still fresh and new, but today Rob & Rob give the insights we need to make sure we have a successful 7 years ahead of us. 

A few weeks ago, The Robs talked about how to make the most of the next decade. And this week, they’re squishing the decade and bringing that timeframe forward. 

So what can you expect to learn from this podcast episode? Here’s just a few sneak peeks:

1. What are you doing now to position yourself for the future?
2. Where are we in the 18-year property cycle? 
3. Why is 7 years really important? 

Also, not to spoil you! But The Robs believe we’re entering a new phase of the 18-year cycle… so listen to find out what actions you need to take NOW!

Also in today’s episode, find out what's caught our attention in the news this week? 

The HS2 project seems to be getting the green light! Expensive, yes! But we can all agree the impact that it’ll have will be incredible. It’ll certainly impact the major cities immensely and improve connectivity throughout the country. We know it’s a case of love it or hate it, but it looks like it’s going ahead nevertheless. 

Speaking of trains… Liverpool is finally getting a £500m investment for the railway services which is massively needed. But guess what? The trains will allow 50% more passengers. This is certainly an investment that will make a big difference to the city! 

And in this week’s Hub Extra, we have a podcast recommendation from Tim Ferris.

Pre warning, it’s a 2-hour long podcast, but we promise it’s worth it! Tim Ferris has done an interview with Sam Zell, who’s a billionaire. Notably he created one of the biggest real estate investment trusts in the world. We love this podcast because he has so much perspective and he wants to share his knowledge.  

It’s just a little podcast (besides this one) that we think could benefit investors! Not only do we just hear about Sam’s successes, he dives into talks of the future of markets and the role of interest rates, because they barely get talked about. This is a must listen to!

We’d love to hear what you think of this week’s Property Podcast over on Facebook, Twitter or Instagram. You might even have a topic you’d like us to cover in the future - if so, pop us a message on social and we’ll see what we can do.

Make sure you’ve liked and subscribed to our YouTube channel where we upload new content every week!

If that wasn’t enough, you can also join our friendly property community on the Property Hub forum.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's time for another question in this week’s edition of ‘Ask Rob & Rob’, Lauren asks Rob & Rob... a follow up question from last Thursday's Property Podcast - Does Property Double Every 10 Years? ASK YOUR OWN QUESTION TO ROB & ROB!

Don't be shy! All you need to do is leave a message with your name and whatever's on your mind.

Just pick up the phone and call 013 808 00035 (normal UK call rates apply).

Or if you prefer, click here to leave a recording via your computer instead.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a good chance that if you were a boy in the early 90s that you were a collector of baseball cards. For a few years, the baseball card industry went from being a niche collectible to a massive industry. It was, for a brief period, a legitimate bubble. On this week's Odd Lots podcast we talk to Dave Jamieson, the author of Mint Condition: How Baseball Cards Became an American Obsession. Among the topics we discussed include the role that pricing guides had in exacerbating the boom, the way that supply massively expanded to meet the raging demand, and how baseball cards have always been a gateway to various vices.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We never claim to be the greatest investors in the world, but one thing's for sure – we're a lot better than we used to be. This week we share five specific things we've done that have helped us to get better results.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.