CFTC

Part 1: Washington-based lobbyist and former Rand Paul counsel Brian Darling returns to the show to discuss Trump's VP selection.

Part 2: Mick Bransfield, an expert on prediction market regulation, returns to discuss reports that PredictIt is pursuing a settlement with the CFTC.

0:57: Current market odds on Republican VP nominee
3:44: Pratik introduces Bransfield segment
4:37: Trump interview on his VP choice with Maria Bartiromo
8:28: Darling interview begins
10:00: Why Noem is the front-runner to be Trump's VP
11:49: Noem's history with Trump

15:15: Noem's alleged affair with Corey Lewandowski
16:26: Odds Trump will pick a woman running mate

17:26: The Republican Party's role in the VP selection

18:32: Trump's perspective on loyalty

21:45: Would Noem accept the VP nomination?

22:06: History of people rejecting offers to be VP
22:50: What price to pay for Noem yes shares

24:29: Why Haley is trading so high

31:42: Elise Stefanik's odds

33:57: Bransfield segment begins

39:03: Signs PredictIt will not pursue a constitutional challenge

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Prediction market enthusiast and effective altruist Nathan Young (@nathanpmyoung) joins the show to discuss the relation of prediction markets and AI. He also discusses Polymarket's market on whether an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August and explains why it's unlikely to happen.

Timestamps

0:00: Intro begins

4:00: Interview with Nathan begins. Nathan explains his full-time work in the forecasting industry

6:18: AI and effective altruism 

13:25: What exactly is AI and what are its capabilities?

30:49: Polymarket's AI Math Olympiad Prize market

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Four Part Episode

Part 1: Dr. Lucas (@talophex) on Biden's health

Part 2: The Winner (@thewinner2875) and Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) on whether Vivek Ramaswamy is worth buying as a hedge

Part 3: Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) on the CFTC's decision to reject Kalshi's election contracts

Part 4: Nathan Young (@nathanpyoung) on religion and prediction markets 

Timestamps

5:08: Interview with Lucas begins

6:39: Biden's cognitive decline

8:49: Biden's physical health

10:20: Biden's aneurysms

13:18: Biden's capacity to run a presidential campaign

15:19: Biden's risk of vaccine injury

18:45: How to trade on Biden's health on Polymarket

20:46: Segment on Ramaswamy begins

21:46: Ben Freeman on fading the online candidate

23:22: Segment on CFTC's Kalshi decision begins

24:21: Commissioner Mersinger's dissent

25:54: State laws on political betting

27:40: Why the CFTC is not main the adversary of political betting

28:14: Legality of the Iowa Electronic Markets

29:47: Kalshi's tried to find a shortcut

30:50: Excerpt of Chougule's speech on black markets

32:22: Segment with Nathan Young begins

32:37: How religion made Young interested in prediction markets

33:10: Forecasters were ahead of the curve on COVID

34:02: Similarities between the rationality and religious communities

38:05: Religious attitudes toward gambling in the UK

40:56: America's religious opposition to political betting

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Three-Part Episode

In Part I, Ben Freeman and SSG Title Belt Champion The Winner review the DeSantis-Newsom debate and discuss whether DeSantis can make a comeback.

In Part II, PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess offers lessons on what the political betting community can learn from how sports betting became mainstream.

In Part III, Mick Bransfield provides theories on why Kalshi pressed ahead with election contracts at the CFTC knowing it didn't have the votes.

Timestamps

4:30: Interview with Ben Freeman and The Winner begins
7:49: DeSantis's mannerisms
12:36: Is DeSantis deferring too much to advisors 
15:03: Missed opportunities in the DeSantis-Newsom debate
18:42: Market prices on DeSantis and Nikki Haley
25:13: Trump's legal problems
27:23: Can Haley get through the Republican primaries?
30:16: Interview with Friess begins
34:46: Pratik's view on legalizing political betting at the state level
37:19: Interview with Bransfield begins
43:12: Incentives created by Kalshi's investors

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Three-part episode:

(1) Dr. Lucas—the "surgeon general of prediction market Twitter"—joins to discuss Mitch McConnell's health. Why did he "freeze" in public multiple times? Did the Congressional physician cover up his actual condition?

(2) Rule3O3 discusses how large donors approach their political contributions

(3) Jonathan Zubkoff (@zubbybadger) sounds the alarm on the opposition of U.S. Senators to political betting

Timestamps

0:00: Introduction
5:01: Interview with Lucas begins
5:21: How political betting led to Lucas being swatted
8:07: How Lucas got into political betting
9:36: Improvements in political betting websites
10:13: Lucas's medical background
13:20: Polymarket's market on whether Mitch McConnell will resign by the end of the year
13:36: McConnell's freezing episodes
19:58: What is a seizure?
23:29: Did McConnell have a stroke?
24:02: Did the Congressional physician mislead the public about McConnell's condition?
26:41: The state of McConnell's health
29:59: Medications McConnell might be on right now
31:18: How the longshot could win on Polymarket
34:41: Segment with Rule3O3 begins
37:11: Segment with Jonathan Zubkoff begins

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3-Part Episode
— Keendawg returns to discuss why Andy Beshear, Kentucky's Democratic Governor, is favored for re-election, but why lottos on his Republican challenger might be a good bet

— Pratik reports on new evidence that Kalshi was behind the CFTC's enforcement action against Polymarket

— MagaVacuum explains how to gain a betting edge while traveling to campaign events

Timestamps

4:24: Interview with Keendawg begins

4:40: Keendawg's role in founding Star Spangled Gamblers 

7:14: Kentucky colonels

9:42: Who is Andy Beshear and why is he the favorite in the KY governor's race?

15:29: Who is Daniel Cameron?

18:20: Counties in Kentucky to watch

21:35: Why Andy Beshear won in 2019

22:14: Cameron's appeal

23:26: Background on KY politics

25:27: Partisan politics in KY

26:54: Lexington-Louisville rivalry

27:42: Davies County

28:47: Segment begins on Kalshi's role in Polymarket

30:18: Former CFTC official Maggie Sklar's comment to the CFTC against Kalshi

34:23: MAGAVacuum's research on communications and political prediction markets

36:00: How to gain an edge by traveling to campaign events

Show Notes
— Sklar's letter to CFTC https://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/ViewComment.aspx?id=72703&SearchText=sklar

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Follow Pratik Chougule on Twitter: @pjchougule

After another review with a 30-day public comment period, the CFTC rejected Kalshi's proposal to offer election contracts.

Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into the outpouring of public comments that led to the CFTC's decision.

0:00: Introduction begins

2:14: Kalshi's incentives and how they shape its strategy toward political betting regulation

3:46: Kalshi's policy on transparency

5:27: Kalshi's diverging incentives from the political betting community

7:42: How Pratik's assumptions on political betting regulation differ from those of Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour

13:03: Interview with Mick begins

15:18: Background on the latest 30-day comment period

16:40: Why the CFTC received a flood of comments

17:46: Were the anti-Kalshi comments AI-generated?

18:10: Public Citizen

20:57: Better Markets

21:55: Letter from Representatives John Sarbanes and Jamie Raskin

22:55: Center for American Progress

25:09: Are prediction markets becoming a partisan football?

31:11: Errors and poor analysis in the anti-Kalshi letters

33:41: Kalshi's response

46:40: Why Pratik lost confidence in Kalshi's regulatory approach

Links:

Mick Bransfield's website: https://mickbransfield.com/markets/

Coalition for Political Forecasting: http://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/

Coalition for Political Forecasting comment to CFTC: http://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/coalition-for-political-forecasting-response-to-cftcs-request-for-public-comments-on-questions-related-to-kalshis-self-certified-congressional-control-contracts/

Espresso Systems integrates the OP Stack. Aztec Network introduces privacy abstraction. The CFTC files charges against three DeFi protocols. And Synthetix extends OP incentives for perpetual traders.

Intro: Pratik's thoughts on the first Republican presidential debate

Part I: Pratik interviews PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess about his reporting on why political prediction markets missed the 2022 Senate races, and why the policymaking community is skeptical of political gambling.

Part II: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the circumstances in which Trump will attend a Republican debate

Timestamps

0:12: Pratik introduces the interview with Steve Friess

1:37: Pratik introduces segment with Zubby Badger on whether Trump will attend a debate

2:59: Political betting insights from the first Republican debate

10:32: Friess's interest in political gambling

13:55: Why betting markets missed the 2022 midterms

21:05: Policymaking community's skepticism of political gambling

39:17: Factors in whether Trump will show up to a Republican debate

Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into the Fifth Circuit's decision to grant PredictIt a preliminary injunction and what it means for traders as well as the broader political betting community. Bransfield and Chougule also speculate on why PredictIt still isn't rolling out new markets.

4:53: Summary of Fifth Circuit ruling
14:51: CFTC attorneys and their legal strategy against PredictIt
27:19: PredictIt hiring for a DCM
31:21: New markets at PredictIt?
34:20: SSG website down

Part I (3:46): Adrian Smith responds to CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam's concerns that election markets could turn the CFTC into an "election cop." 

Part II (27:01): Iabvek and Pratik side bet on whether Ron DeSantis will even win one county in the Republican primaries

Part III (36:37): Mick Bransfield discusses whether Kalshi "killed" PredictIt and/or Polymarket and how the FOIA process works at the CFTC

Part IV (40:53): Mailbag on Kalshi's recent debt ceiling market

Gaeten Dugas, Iabvek, and Pratik Chougule debate and place side bets on the question of when Ron DeSantis drop out of the race. 

In part II, Pratik addresses a mailbag question on the question of whether prediction markets and political gamblers have failed to disrupt the political discourse.

Timestamps:

5:25: PredictIt's victory at the Fifth Circuit
7:12: DeSantis's political future
41:47: Mailbag on prediction market traders who can't explain politics

The CFTC's review of Kalshi's election contracts has shown that policymakers in America have deep concerns about risk political betting poses to democracy.

UK-based political gambler and election compliance specialist Adrian Smith joins the show to discuss what lessons can be drawn from Britain's longstanding, liberal regulations on political betting.

In part 2, Atlantic Sentinel Nick Ottens returns to the show to discuss why Hungary won't leave the European Union.

Timestamps:

0:00: Pratik introduces the Adrian Smith interview
0:42: Pratik discusses the CFTC's review of Kalshi's election contracts
4:39: Pratik introduces the Nick Ottens interview
6:19: Pratik suggests submitting a comment to the CFTC
8:36: Adrian Smith's background
13:20: Market manipulation in UK political betting
23:51: Why Hungary is in the American political discourse
33:09: Why Hungary is unlikely to leave the EU

 

Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into Kalshi's latest attempt at the CFTC to offer election markets.  

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Twitter: @ssgamblers

— Gaeten Dugas and Pratik Chougule debate their side bet on whether Trump will show up to the first Republican debate in August

— Abhi and Pratik discuss whether PredictIt will offer new markets and how to trade on this question on Insight Prediction

— Atlantic Sentinel editor Nick Ottens explains how countries can leave the European Union and why the odds of Italy and Poland exiting are very low

— Pratik Chougule analyzes Victoria University's response to the CFTC.

— Gaeten Dugas explains why he's making the largest bet of his career on George Santos not resigning from Congress. 

— Zeus O'Dea considers why the right is losing educated voters across the western world and whether this reality is being priced in on betting markets.