AI Can't Beat the Math Nerds (Yet)

Saul Munn is one of the world's leading experts on building the forecasting community. He is the Co-Founder of Optic Forecasting and the Lead Organizer of the Manifest conference.

In Part 1, Saul joins the show to discuss which communities comprise the emerging forecasting community.

In Part 2, Brian Darling, former counsel to Senator Rand Paul, returns to assess the Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn's odds of becoming Trump's VP pick.

In Part 3, Nathan Young returns to the show to advise on how to short AI hype in betting markets.

0:00: Pratik introduces the segment with Saul Munn
1:24: Saul's disclaimer on conflicts of interest

1:56: Manifest Conference 2024
3:26: Intro for Brian Darling segment on the GOP VP nominee market
4:16: How to trade on the GOP VP nomination
5:08: Intro to interview with Nathan Young
9:03: Interview with Saul begins
9:26: The importance of community in the political betting space
11:00: Optic forecasting clubs
12:44: How Saul became interested in the forecasting community
13:25: Manifest Conference
13:46: Diversity in the forecasting community
14:32: Who is in the broader forecasting community?
14:56: Destiny's role in the forecasting community
16:57: The types of people who are interested in forecasting
19:44: Differences between Washington politics and the forecasting community
20:40: Differences between the political betting community and the forecasting community
21:18: Communities interested in forecasting
21:47: Communities that could be interested in forecasting
24:34: Why some communities resist forecasting
28:20: Segment with Brian Darling begins
28:27: Kim Reynolds's VP odds
29:06: Marsha Blackburn's VP odds
30:05: Swing state VP contenders
31:26: Segment with Nathan Young begins
31:59: Taxing bad predictions
33:46: Shorting AI enthusiasm in political betting markets
34:47: Irrational pricing in Time Person of the Year markets 

40:12: Hedge funds and AI

Part 1: Washington-based lobbyist and former Rand Paul counsel Brian Darling returns to the show to discuss Trump's VP selection.

Part 2: Mick Bransfield, an expert on prediction market regulation, returns to discuss reports that PredictIt is pursuing a settlement with the CFTC.

0:57: Current market odds on Republican VP nominee
3:44: Pratik introduces Bransfield segment
4:37: Trump interview on his VP choice with Maria Bartiromo
8:28: Darling interview begins
10:00: Why Noem is the front-runner to be Trump's VP
11:49: Noem's history with Trump

15:15: Noem's alleged affair with Corey Lewandowski
16:26: Odds Trump will pick a woman running mate

17:26: The Republican Party's role in the VP selection

18:32: Trump's perspective on loyalty

21:45: Would Noem accept the VP nomination?

22:06: History of people rejecting offers to be VP
22:50: What price to pay for Noem yes shares

24:29: Why Haley is trading so high

31:42: Elise Stefanik's odds

33:57: Bransfield segment begins

39:03: Signs PredictIt will not pursue a constitutional challenge

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Dr. Lucas (@Talophex) returns for a deep dive into Donald Trump's health and how it should inform a bet on whether he'll be elected president.

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0:00: Pratik introduces the episode
1:17: Discoloration of Trump's hand and Trump's alleged body odor
4:17: Interview begins
5:46: Trump's coronary artery disease
6:32: Trump's physique
10:12: Trump's psychology
11:05: Note from Trump's doctor
13:38: Why hasn't Trump had a serious heart condition?
15:06: Trump's genetics
17:46: Is weight protective in old age?
21:00: Trump's cognitive decline
25:29: Trump's OCD
27:00: Trump's purpose in life
29:48: How Trump's legal issues could impact his health
35:00: How to trade on Trump's health
39:52: What to look for to assess Trump's health

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While Trump appears to hold a commanding lead heading in the Iowa caucuses, second place remains uncertain.

Ben Freeman challenges The Winner for the SSG title belt on the question of who will perform better in the Iowa caucuses: Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley.

Plus, Pratik Chougule explains the nomination process for the 2024 Golden Modelos.

0:00: Pratik introduces the Iowa caucuses segment

1:38: Pratik explains the nomination process for the 2024 Golden Modelos for Excellence in Political Gambling

4:15: SSG members' only private briefing on Taiwan elections

7:36: Segment on Iowa caucuses begins

8:15: What are SSG title belt challenges

9:20: Ben Freeman on why DeSantis is underpriced for second place in Iowa

12:20: The Winner on why DeSantis isn't likely to place second

13:38: Negotiating the belt challenge

14:10: Pratik's view on why DeSantis has the edge

15:30: Haley's feminism

17:07: Populism and wave politics

18:14: What is Haley's message?

28:30: Haley's lack of endorsements

37:30: Democratic presidential primary

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Prediction market enthusiast and effective altruist Nathan Young (@nathanpmyoung) joins the show to discuss the relation of prediction markets and AI. He also discusses Polymarket's market on whether an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August and explains why it's unlikely to happen.

Timestamps

0:00: Intro begins

4:00: Interview with Nathan begins. Nathan explains his full-time work in the forecasting industry

6:18: AI and effective altruism 

13:25: What exactly is AI and what are its capabilities?

30:49: Polymarket's AI Math Olympiad Prize market

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Four Part Episode

Part 1: Dr. Lucas (@talophex) on Biden's health

Part 2: The Winner (@thewinner2875) and Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) on whether Vivek Ramaswamy is worth buying as a hedge

Part 3: Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) on the CFTC's decision to reject Kalshi's election contracts

Part 4: Nathan Young (@nathanpyoung) on religion and prediction markets 

Timestamps

5:08: Interview with Lucas begins

6:39: Biden's cognitive decline

8:49: Biden's physical health

10:20: Biden's aneurysms

13:18: Biden's capacity to run a presidential campaign

15:19: Biden's risk of vaccine injury

18:45: How to trade on Biden's health on Polymarket

20:46: Segment on Ramaswamy begins

21:46: Ben Freeman on fading the online candidate

23:22: Segment on CFTC's Kalshi decision begins

24:21: Commissioner Mersinger's dissent

25:54: State laws on political betting

27:40: Why the CFTC is not main the adversary of political betting

28:14: Legality of the Iowa Electronic Markets

29:47: Kalshi's tried to find a shortcut

30:50: Excerpt of Chougule's speech on black markets

32:22: Segment with Nathan Young begins

32:37: How religion made Young interested in prediction markets

33:10: Forecasters were ahead of the curve on COVID

34:02: Similarities between the rationality and religious communities

38:05: Religious attitudes toward gambling in the UK

40:56: America's religious opposition to political betting

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Three-Part Episode

In Part I, Ben Freeman and SSG Title Belt Champion The Winner review the DeSantis-Newsom debate and discuss whether DeSantis can make a comeback.

In Part II, PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess offers lessons on what the political betting community can learn from how sports betting became mainstream.

In Part III, Mick Bransfield provides theories on why Kalshi pressed ahead with election contracts at the CFTC knowing it didn't have the votes.

Timestamps

4:30: Interview with Ben Freeman and The Winner begins
7:49: DeSantis's mannerisms
12:36: Is DeSantis deferring too much to advisors 
15:03: Missed opportunities in the DeSantis-Newsom debate
18:42: Market prices on DeSantis and Nikki Haley
25:13: Trump's legal problems
27:23: Can Haley get through the Republican primaries?
30:16: Interview with Friess begins
34:46: Pratik's view on legalizing political betting at the state level
37:19: Interview with Bransfield begins
43:12: Incentives created by Kalshi's investors

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Three-part episode:

(1) Dr. Lucas—the "surgeon general of prediction market Twitter"—joins to discuss Mitch McConnell's health. Why did he "freeze" in public multiple times? Did the Congressional physician cover up his actual condition?

(2) Rule3O3 discusses how large donors approach their political contributions

(3) Jonathan Zubkoff (@zubbybadger) sounds the alarm on the opposition of U.S. Senators to political betting

Timestamps

0:00: Introduction
5:01: Interview with Lucas begins
5:21: How political betting led to Lucas being swatted
8:07: How Lucas got into political betting
9:36: Improvements in political betting websites
10:13: Lucas's medical background
13:20: Polymarket's market on whether Mitch McConnell will resign by the end of the year
13:36: McConnell's freezing episodes
19:58: What is a seizure?
23:29: Did McConnell have a stroke?
24:02: Did the Congressional physician mislead the public about McConnell's condition?
26:41: The state of McConnell's health
29:59: Medications McConnell might be on right now
31:18: How the longshot could win on Polymarket
34:41: Segment with Rule3O3 begins
37:11: Segment with Jonathan Zubkoff begins

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Colombia-based trader Ian Bezek (@irbezek) returns to the show to offer some final thoughts on the close and uncertain presidential race in Argentina.

1:32: Ian's thoughts on the final debate between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa
2:10: Ian's advice on Polymarket's margin market
5:20: Interview begins
6:06: Massa's backround
7:43: Massa's political baggage
8:45: Questions about Massa's alleged drug addiction
9:56: Market volatility since the eve of the first round of elections
11:39: Why did polls miss on the first round?
12:49: Milei's shortcomings
14:34: Summary of first round results
15:38: Why so much market volatility?
18:29: How much of Patricia Bullrich's support will go to Milei?
19:57: Argentina's economy
25:41: Milei's extremist statements
27:54: How foreign investors are seeing the election
29:19: Massa overperformed the polls
32:25: Polling
34:52: Ian's predictions and advice
35:50: Pratik's argument for buying Massa
39:18: Stock prices of Milei's former employer
40:58: Implications of a Milei victory for political betting
42:27: Recent elections in South America

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Eurasia expert Kristofer Harrison makes the case for why the odds of an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan are much higher than the market price on Polymarket.

3:54: Interview with Harrison begins

5:06: Do hedge funds use political betting insights?

7:10: Background on Armenia and Azerbaijan

7:56: Why there are tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan

12:15: Russia's role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict

14:29: Domestic politics in Armenia

15:18: Evidence that Azerbaijan is serious about invading

17:44: Why hasn't Azerbaijan already invaded Armenia?

18:43: Balance of power between Azerbaijan and Armenia

20:37: Have Russia and/orTurkey greenlighted an invasion?

22:08: Will the West stop a war?

24:12: Odds of an invasion

27:24: Influence of the weather in Nagorno-Karabach

29:57: How rogue is Aliyev?

33:43: Religion in Azerbaijan

35:05: How much does Azerbaijan care about international investment?

36:55: How keep up with news related to the Azerbaijan-Armenia market

38:44: Will Putin still be in power by the end of the year?

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