Squawk Box Europe Express

Inflation in the U.S. unexpectedly ticks higher in February, potentially lengthening the Fed’s path back to lower rates. However, U.S. and European equities hit new highs as investors stick with their June Fed rate cut predictions. In politics, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have both won enough primary delegates to become their parties’ presumptive nominees in November’s presidential election, according to NBC News. In Japan, major companies commit to fully meet union demands for pay hikes, strengthening speculation the Bank of Japan could exit negative rates next week. Boeing suffers a plethora of quality control problems with its top clients complaining of delivery delays, cancelled flights as well as hiring freezes at the U.S. plane maker.    

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Former U.S. President slams both China and the EU, telling our colleagues Stateside that America is being taken advantage of economically. JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon urges the Federal Reserve to act cautiously on rate cuts, arguing that a U.S. recession is still a possibility as President Biden unveils his budget for 2025, which proposes higher taxes, spending and debt. BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda has dampened optimism about the state of the Japanese economy ahead of a key meeting which could see the central bank raise rates out of negative territory for the first time since 2016 as the 10-year JGB reaches a three-month high. Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi is to launch its first ever EV, helping to push shares up on the Hang Seng. GOP House leaders move against social media giant TikTok with a bill that could require its parent company ByteDance to either sell the platform or be liable to a fine in the U.S. 

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The Nikkei tumbles, posting its worst day in the more than a year on speculation the BoJ will finally raise rates, helping the yen while hurting exports. In China, sticker prices rise for the first time since lates summer but manufacturing price deflation continues to drag. New Delhi agrees to signs a $100bn free trade deal with the European EFTA bloc, ahead of a spring general election. And in energy news, Saudi Aramco sees FY profit fall by up to 25 per cent but its still manages to posts its second-highest net income ever while increasing its dividend. 

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There’s a new record high for the S&P 500 index – its 16th this year. In a testimony to the Senate, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank was gaining the confidence it needs to cut rates. In Frankfurt, the ECB keeps rates on hold but signals a mid-year cut with President Christine Lagarde calling for more data by June. President Biden lashes out at former President Donald Trump during his third State of the Union address. Biden called on Congress to stand up to Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Humanitarian assistance to Gaza and the southern border crisis were also featured high on the agenda. Danish drug maker Novo Nordisk overtakes Tesla in market cap valuation, unveiling new trial data as well as plans to sell WeGovy in China.  

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U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterates to the House Financial Services Committee that the central bank is not yet ready to begin slashing interest rates. Powell said he required more data to be confident inflation would continue falling before dialling back on restrictive policy. Chinese trade numbers beat expectations for the first two months of 2024. Foreign Minster Wang Yi has hit out at ‘lengthening’ U.S. economic restrictions on his country. In Frankfurt, the ECB is expected to keep rates on hold for a fourth consecutive month while in the UK, Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt cuts National Insurance contributions by a further 2 per cent.  

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Former U.S. President Donald Trump dominates the GOP Super Tuesday races. NBC News projects he has won almost all of the 15 states voting in the primary contest. Wall Street stumbles for a second straight day with tech stocks weighing. The Dow is down ahead of Federal reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony on Capitol Hill. We are live in Westminster ahead of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s UK budget later today. Personal tax cuts set to top the agenda. And in IPO news, Swiss-American dermatology company Galderma plans to list in Zurich, aiming to raise $2.3bn. 

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We are live in Beijing at China’s annual parliamentary session where the country has set a growth target of ‘around 5 per cent’ for 2024. Premier Li Qiang has sought to diffuse economic tensions but warned of a tricky path ahead. Tesla sees Chinese sales fall to the their lowest level since December 2022, with increased domestic competition as well as a slowdown in demand weighing on the EV maker. Brussels has slapped Apple with a €1.8bn fine for alleged abuse of its market position within the music-streaming space. And in the U.S., the Supreme Court has ruled that individual states cannot remove former President Donald Trump from the ballot for his alleged involvement in the January 6th 2021 storming of the U.S. Capitol. Delegates in 15 states are due to vote for presidential nominees this Super Tuesday.  

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China hosts its annual legislative sessions with an aim to deepening economic reform. Beijing is grappling with the four issues of deflation, demographics, debt and de-risking. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 hits the 40,000-point level for the first time on the back of strong tech stock performance. Stateside, the Nasdaq, Dow and S&P 500 also hit fresh highs. Hamas delegates are in Egypt hoping to negotiate a Ramadan truce in Gaza. U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris calls out Israel over the humanitarian situation in the territory. Saudi Arabia has decided to extend its voluntary oil supply cut until the end of Q2. Russia performs its own cuts as Opec+ nations attempt to steady the market.  

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The recent optimism around A.I. helps push the Nasdaq to its first record high in more than 2 years. The Dow and S&P 500 also mark their best start to the year since 2019. Consumer prices Stateside are their slowest rate of increase in six years, raising hopes of a June rate cut. In banking news, shares of NY Community Bancorp plunge by 20 per cent in extended trade on the news that the lender has removed its CEO due to internal control matters. Chinese manufacturing activity is down for a fifth-straight month ahead of next week’s annual legislative meetings where broader policy moves may be on the agenda.  

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U.S. markets are set to notch their fourth monthly gain but investors turn wary on tech stocks ahead of today’s inflation data. There is a tentative deal on Capitol Hill as lawmakers scramble to avert a government shutdown. Long-serving Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell has announced he will be stepping down from his position after the U.S. election this November. Chinese equities rebound sharply despite recent volatility with the Shanghai Composite is now on track for its best month since November 2022. In tech news, Apple has teased it will be making a major A.I.-related funding announcement later this year. And luxury Italian fashion house Moncler posts a 17 per cent revenue spike due to a strong performance in China.  

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Global markets toe the line ahead of key inflation data coming out of the U.S. The recent troubles experienced by Boeing have sent U.S. durable goods orders to their steepest monthly fall since April 2020. In U.S. politics, President Biden wins the Democratic primary in Michigan while former President Donald Trump easily notches his fifth state victory ahead of Super Tuesday. Following President Macron’s comments about potential NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine, Western leaders push back but speaking to CNBC, former Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko urges unity and strength in the face of Putin’s aggression in his country. In tech news, Apple reportedly ditches plans for its EV to instead focus on its generative A.I. unit. We have continuing coverage from the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona where Honor enters the high-end smart phone space with its first foldable flip phone. Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins tells CNBC that A.I.’s impact will soon become very visible and transformative. 

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JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has played down suggestions that the U.S. economy may still enjoy a soft landing, saying investor optimism is mis-placed. With A.I. dominating the agenda at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, we hear from Microsoft President Brad Smith who says the new technology is transformative and here to stay. In Japan, January inflation slowed which affected the BoJ’s 2 per cent target and supported the case for the central bank to end negative interest rates in the coming months. Chinese fast fashion company Shein has signalled it may list in London rather than on Wall Street following increased SEC concerns about the firm in the U.S. In Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron hosts Western leaders, pledging to support Ukraine and also not ruling out the possibility of European boots on the ground.

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We are live at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona where A.I. is dominating the agenda. Deutsche Telekom CEO Tim Höttges tells CNBC that Europe is lagging in the digital world. Berkshire Hathaway posts a record 28 per cent jump in Q4 earnings bringing the company’s cash pile to $167bn but CEO Warren Buffett warns that a repeat performance in coming years is not guaranteed. Donald Trump comfortably defeats Nikki Haley in the GOP primary in her home state of South Carolina to cement his lead as the Republican presidential nominee frontrunner. Haley, however, has vowed to fight on. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drags into a third year as a U.S. Congressional impasse continues to hold up military aid for the country.  

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Chip maker Nvidia adds $277bn to its market cap in one session, smashing the previous added value record high and prompting stock market highs across three continents. Asia-focused bank Standard Chartered posts an 18 per cent surge in FY pre-tax profit. It is due to offer a $1bn share buy-back and a large increase to its dividend. Reddit may list in New York in the next few weeks, becoming Wall Street’s first social media IPO since Pinterest in 2019. And the U.S. government is preparing 500 new sanctions against Moscow following the death of opposition activist Alexei Navalny in prison last week. President Joe Biden has met with his family on the eve of the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  

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Nvidia shares pop in after-hours trade after the chip giant posted a 265 per cent surge in Q4 revenue. CEO Jensen Huang tells CNBC that conditions are ideal to grow the company. As a result the chip sector rallies, pushing Japan’s Nikkei to levels not seen since 1989. The Fed urges caution in cutting rates too early. BofA CEO Brian Moynihan says the central bank should not repeat mistakes of the past. And in autos news, Mercedes-Benz is to launch a share buy-back worth $3bn ahead of results later this morning. 

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HSBC shares dip in Hong Kong despite the lender posting a record FY profit. The result was marred by a write-down on its share of Chinese bank BOCOM. HSBC CEO Noel Quinn tells CNBC he is still upbeat on the country’s economy. Chinese indices claw back earlier losses after the market regulator said it would increase supervision while the Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses crack down on a key quant fund. Wall Street suffers a second day of losses after chip giant Nvidia records its worst session since October. The company’s earnings are due later today. And in retail news, French supermarket giant Carrefour announces a 55% dividend hike after seeing record cash flow of €1.6 bn.   

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The PBOC makes its biggest ever cut to the country’s benchmark mortgage rate as authorities look to shore up the beleaguered Chinese property sector. In banking news, Capital One strikes a $35bn deal to snap up credit card issuer Discover Financial – the largest acquisition so far this year. German industrial giant Bayer slashes its dividend by 95 per cent to the lowest legal level in a bid to drastically cut costs and alleviate its debt situation. The world largest listed mining company, BHP also reduces its dividend payout following a plunge in H1 net profit as commodity pricing remains rocky. And we are live at the Singapore Air Show where China prepares to unveil its first home-grown passenger aircraft. IATA director-general Willie Walsh tells CNBC the aviation sector is still seeing examples of supply chain concerns.  

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We are live at the Munich Security Conference where the death of Alexei Navalny on Friday and dwindling Ukrainian military supplies against Russia have dominated discussions over the weekend. We hear from NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg who says he does not believe a potential Trump administration would abandon the alliance. Russian forces re-take the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka – its first major victory in 9 months. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy says his country is awaiting more military aid from the West. Chinese indices are relatively flat following the week-long Lunar New Year festivities but data shows holiday spending topping pre-pandemic era levels. And in tech news, Apple is to be hit with a €500m anti-trust fine from the EU as part of an investigation whether it restricted apps from providing users with information about cheaper music-streaming subscriptions.

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The S&P 500 achieves a fresh record high for the eleventh time this year – this as U.S. consumer spending in January falls more than expected in what could be an early warning sign for the American economy. In Japan, the Nikkei moves close to levels not seen since 1989. Crypto exchange Coinbase sees shares surge more than 14 per cent in extended trade. CFO Alesia Haas told our colleagues Stateside that Bitcoin ETFs are behind the company’s first quarterly profit in 2 years. And we are live in Bavaria where U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris ahead of the Munich Security Conference where she will work to assure European allies that Washington will honour its NATO commitments. 

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