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    TIP554: Mental Models for Successful Investing w/ John Jennings

    Don't rely solely on one person's opinion for stock market predictions. Diversify your investments and be aware of the potential outcomes that didn't happen when reflecting on past decisions.

    enMay 21, 2023

    About this Episode

    On today’s episode, Clay chats with John Jennings about his new book - The Uncertainty Solution.  John Jennings is President and Chief Strategist of St. Louis Trust & Family Office, which has $12 billion dollars in assets under management. He is also a member of the firm’s Management Committee, on its Board of Directors, and also serves on the Investment, Risk Management, and Trust Committees. John works closely with client families, advising them in all areas of wealth management. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro. 01:38 - Why humans are hard-wired to avoid uncertainty. 06:40 - Mental models we can use to invest more intelligently. 10:08 - How humans tend to react when faced with uncertainty. 16:56 - Why we are wired to quickly come to conclusions and tend to confuse correlation with causation. 27:17 - How the improbable is much more probable than we might expect. 32:13 - Why the economy is not directly correlated with the stock market. 47:51 - Where investing falls on Michael Maubbousin’s Skill vs Luck continuum. 1:00:53 - How behavior biases like loss aversion and overconfidence affect our investment decisions. 1:06:14 - How storytelling can trick us into making poor investment decisions. 1:10:13 - What base rates are and understanding base rates can help us make more intelligent decisions. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, and the other community members. John’s new book - The Uncertainty Solution. John’s website. John’s firm - St. Louis Trust & Family Office. Check out our newly released TIP Mastermind Community. Check out our recent episode covering the 2023 Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meeting or watch the video. Follow Clay on Twitter. NEW TO THE SHOW? Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.  SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: River Toyota Linkedin Marketing Solutions Fidelity Efani Shopify NDTCO Fundrise Wise NetSuite TurboTax Vacasa NerdWallet Babbel HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    🔑 Key Takeaways

    • Humans have a natural inclination to seek certainty and resolve uncertainty. As investors, we should recognize this tendency and use mental models to make smarter investment decisions. Enjoy a bit of uncertainty, but understand how to manage it wisely.
    • Mental models can help individuals make better decisions by providing a framework for understanding situations. Using Hanlan's Razor can prevent unnecessary negative emotions in response to uncertain or ambiguous situations.
    • Recognize and own your feelings of uncertainty, rely on true mental models, avoid cognitive closure, be comfortable with uncertainty, and know that having no explanation is okay.
    • In uncertain situations, avoid becoming overconfident in beliefs. Seek productive information, be open to different viewpoints, and recognize the world as fundamentally uncertain.
    • Avoid oversimplifying issues and assuming causation without evidence. Embrace the possibility of being wrong and seek out diverse perspectives to broaden understanding.
    • While research shows a potential link between strong female leadership and high performance, it's important to recognize that causality is not always clear. It's also essential to avoid overestimating coincidences as meaningful when investing.
    • Expect the unexpected and prepare for improbable scenarios by diversifying your portfolio. Don't assume the stock market reflects the economy - it's important to understand the difference. Don't read too much into patterns that may just be coincidence.
    • Understanding that the stock market and economy are not directly related can help investors make more informed decisions by managing their expectations and acknowledging that there is no surefire strategy for investing. Adaptability is key in an ever-changing landscape.
    • The stock market operates independently from the economy and it's important for investors to not use economic news as a guide for market trends. Instead, they should rebalance portfolios regularly and understand that the market is a complex system influenced by patterns and intelligent agents.
    • The stock market is a complex and adaptive system where past patterns do not necessarily work in the future. Investors can learn from past crises and great investors’ approaches to navigate uncertain times.
    • Don't rely solely on one person's opinion for stock market predictions. Diversify your investments and be aware of the potential outcomes that didn't happen when reflecting on past decisions.
    • Relying on expert predictions or following our own predictions can be hazardous in investing. It is essential to remain well-diversified, have a long-term approach, take calculated risks, and keep emotions in check in investing.
    • Investing in stocks is not a guarantee for success due to the role of luck and changing market conditions. Diversification, long-term investing, and avoiding reliance on past performance are essential for any investor.
    • Choosing a long-term investment manager with a lockup period can increase returns, while awareness of behavioral biases such as overconfidence and loss aversion is crucial for making wise investment decisions.
    • Despite being hardwired into us, biases such as loss aversion and storytelling bias can be detrimental to investment decisions. Being aware of these biases can prevent poor investment choices.
    • Stories play a crucial role in human interaction and intelligence evaluation. However, relying solely on stories can lead to overlooking base rates and probabilities. Understanding and researching base rates can help make better decisions.
    • Don't rely on stories or anecdotal evidence when making investment or medical decisions. Look at the base rate and research the facts before making informed choices. Being aware of storytelling bias can help you make better decisions.
    • Customize portfolios based on individual cash flow needs and risk tolerance, focus on disciplined rebalancing techniques for the long run, and approach IPOs with caution due to low success rates and potential incentives driving investment pitches.
    • When investing, focus on long-term timeframes and recognize the role of buyer and seller behavior. Have a humble approach to investing and avoid trying to outguess the market. Overconfidence can be detrimental to portfolio performance.

    📝 Podcast Summary

    Understanding the Human Motivation for Resolving Uncertainty and Investing Strategically

    Humans are hardwired to shy away from uncertainty. Our quest for certainty, to resolve uncertainty is a primary human motive. Recognizing patterns gives a survival advantage, and we become anxious when we can't recognize a pattern. Resolving uncertainty triggers our relaxation response and releases dopamine which feels good. Our relationship with uncertainty is not straightforward; we actually like a bit because we love how it feels when we resolve it. This is why some people like to gamble or watch movies without knowing the ending. As investors, we should recognize this natural human tendency and use mental models to invest more intelligently.

    Mental Models and the Benefits of Hanlan's Razor.

    Humans dislike uncertainty as it causes stress and psychological agony. This was shown in a study where volunteers were shocked randomly and were more stressed when they couldn't see a pattern to avoid the shocks. Mental models help create a framework for understanding how the world works in specific instances. Without the correct mental models, people can make bad decisions based on emotions or inaccurate information. A helpful mental model is Hanlan's Razor, which advises not to attribute malice to actions that can be explained by stupidity, carelessness, or sloth. Applying this model can prevent feelings of hurt or anger when emails go unanswered or meetings get canceled.

    How to Deal with Uncertainty like a Great Investor

    One of the best ways to deal with uncertainty is to recognize when you're feeling uncertain and to own it. This quest for certainty can drive a lot of our behavior, even if we don't realize it. Great investors have a lattice work of mental models that they fall back on that are true, and they know which ones to pull out when. And we can have opinions, but we shouldn't go all in. We need to recognize the need for cognitive closure when we feel uncertain, and avoid becoming hyper-vigilant where we look for answers. Instead, we should focus on being comfortable with uncertainty and realize that we don't always have to have an explanation.

    Overcoming Bias and Embracing Uncertainty.

    When faced with uncertainty, we tend to seize and freeze on the first explanation that fits our worldview and become information junkies, seeking dopamine hits from taking in more information. We also turn to experts for predictions and seek out groups that think like us, creating echo chambers. However, this behavior can be counterproductive when faced with unknowable situations. It's important to recognize that the world is fundamentally uncertain and to avoid becoming overconfident in our beliefs. Instead, we should strive to seek productive information and be open to other points of view to develop a well-rounded understanding of the situation.

    The dangers of jumping to conclusions and the importance of embracing uncertainty.

    Humans are prone to quickly jumping to conclusions that are too simplified or not true because of their dislike of uncertainty and the need for an explanation. Correlation does not equal causation, and there can be a common cause that explains the correlation. The example of children's academic performance and the number of books in their household showed that having books did not cause higher educational attainment; it was a symptom of the type of parents that bought books. It is essential to position ourselves for uncertainty and consider the possibility that we may be wrong. We should surround ourselves with diverse opinions and media, not just those that align with our beliefs.

    The Debate on Female-led Companies and Performance

    There is a debate about whether or not female-led companies have better performance. Although some research shows that there might be a causal link between strong female leadership and high performance, others suggest that the causality may be the opposite and it is a symptom. So far, there haven't been any longitudinal studies between companies to tease this out. It is also essential to understand as an investor that highly improbable scenarios are actually to be expected, and coincidences don't necessarily indicate a greater meaning in the world. This topic can be considered a buzzkill for some people who look at coincidences as a way to find more profound meaning in life.

    The Role of Coincidence in Investing

    The highly improbable happens all the time, and we as humans tend to be surprised almost every time it happens. Coincidences may occur more often than we think, and we should not read too much into patterns that are not grounded in anything other than randomness and chance. This mental model has implications for investing, as we should account for the improbable scenarios and diversify our portfolios to protect against unexpected events. The stock market is not the economy and its performance may not always reflect the state of the overall economy. Therefore, it is important to not make oversimplified assumptions about the stock market based on the state of the economy.

    The Uncorrelated Relationship between the Stock Market and Economy

    The stock market and the economy are uncorrelated, meaning that the stock market doesn't directly reflect what's happening in the economy. In fact, the stock market often predicts what the economy will do, but the economy doesn't predict what the stock market will do. This means that economic indicators like GDP growth, interest rates, and corporate earnings don't necessarily tell you what will happen in the stock market. As an investor, it's important to understand that there is no surefire strategy for investing because nothing always works. Investing is an ever-changing landscape and an investor's efforts to respond to the environment change it even further. Knowing this key mental model can help investors manage their expectations and make more informed decisions.

    The Disconnect between the Stock Market and the Economy

    The stock market and the economy are not synonymous, and bad news in the economy doesn't necessarily mean bad news for the stock market. Investors cannot use what's going on in the economy to inform what's going on in the stock market. The true value of a company is what the market says it is, meaning everyone else. The stock market operates similarly to a complex adaptive system with intelligent agents that learn from patterns. The GameStop scenario proves that the stock market can have real-world effects. It's important to note that even in a looming recession, investors shouldn't necessarily sell the stock market. Nobody can predict the bottom or the market's future movements, making it crucial to rebalance portfolios regularly.

    Understanding the Complexity and Uncertainty of the Stock Market

    The stock market is a complex and adaptive system where individual rational actions can lead to irrational outcomes system-wide, as seen in the toilet paper shortage during the pandemic. Attempts to model the stock market are difficult because patterns that have persisted in the past may not necessarily work in the future. The Great Financial Crisis was a crucial learning experience for investors to develop mental models and make good decisions. The economy and the stock market are not the same, and the stock market can rebound before the economy does. Learning from great investors and their approaches can help navigate uncertain times in the stock market.

    The importance of diversification and being aware of 'invisible histories' in stock market predictions.

    Even experts with all the information and research can make wrong predictions about the stock market. It is important to not completely rely on one person's opinion or prediction and to keep a level head. This experience shows the importance of diversification, as the hedge fund that moved mostly to cash and gold missed out on the stock market's significant growth from March 9th, 2009 to the end of 2022. It is also important to be aware of 'invisible histories,' things that could have happened but didn't, when reflecting on past events and decisions.

    Investing- More Luck than Skill

    Investing is more luck-based than skill-based, and following expert predictions or relying on our own predictions of the future can lead to costly mistakes. Michael Mauboussin's skill-luck continuum helps to determine where an activity falls on the spectrum of being skill-based or luck-based. Investing falls towards the luck end of the continuum, where skill matters but towards gambling. An amateur can beat a pro in investing, showing that it is not entirely a skill-based activity. Therefore, we should not invest solely based on predictions or expert opinions. It's crucial to have a well-diversified portfolio, a long-term outlook, and to take calculated risks while keeping emotions in check.

    Investing in Stocks: Skill vs Luck and the Myth of Consistency

    Investing in stocks is not just about skill but also hugely dependent on luck. It is difficult to consistently pick stocks that will do well in the future. Even the best investment managers go through periods of underperformance, which can drive away investors. Moreover, the market conditions are continually changing, so success in one decade may not translate into success in the next one. Therefore, it is essential to not read too much into an investment manager's performance, whether good or bad, and to avoid making investment decisions based solely on past performance. Instead, investors should diversify their portfolio, consider low-cost index funds, and invest for the long term to reduce the impact of short-term market fluctuations.

    The Impact of Investment Manager Strategy and Behavioral Biases on Returns

    Investment managers often change their strategy to avoid getting fired or to invest in a way similar to the market. The type of investment manager you choose impacts returns, and investing in a manager with a lockup period could increase returns over a long period by encouraging long-term investment decisions. Loss aversion and overconfidence are two common behavioral biases investors should be aware of, and they often work together. Overconfident investors tend to double down rather than lock in losses, which shows that they're being overconfident in their abilities. Being aware of these biases is important for making wise investment decisions, and it's human nature to succumb to them at times.

    How Biases Impact Decision Making in Modern Times

    Even with knowledge of biases, they are hardwired into us and difficult to overcome. These biases were evolved to aid in survival, but in modern times they can negatively impact decision making. Loss aversion, for example, served a purpose in a treacherous world, but now it doesn't make sense to give outsized focus and emotion to losses compared to gains in an abundant world. Additionally, storytelling bias is a lesser-known bias where people are drawn to a good story around an investment, which can lead to neglecting base rates. It's important to be aware of these biases to prevent being swayed into potentially poor investments.

    The Importance of Stories in the Turing Test and Human Interaction

    The Turing test measures whether a computer can trick a human into thinking they are interacting with another human. One of the biggest challenges with AI passing this test is that humans interact through storytelling, and we judge each other's intelligence based on the quality and relevance of our stories. Humans evolved to be storytellers because it provided a survival advantage in working in larger groups. As a result, humans pay outsized attention to stories, which can lead to overlooking base rates or statistical probabilities. Understanding and researching base rates can help make more informed decisions, such as whether to FedEx a passport or wait for it to be delivered safely in person.

    Overcoming the Storytelling Bias

    As investors, we should be careful not to fall prey to storytelling bias, which makes us rely on anecdotal evidence or stories instead of considering the base rate or the likelihood of something happening in the real world. Companies and even fellow investors sell stories, which can easily sway our decisions. Therefore, we must pay attention to the base rate and research the actual facts before making an informed decision. The same applies to medical decision-making and other contexts. We should not let negative or positive stories attached to the choices we have sway us, but rather look at what the base rate tells us about the likelihood of success. Being aware of this bias can help us make better decisions.

    Inflation and IPOs: How to Navigate Complex Investing Situations

    Inflation is a complex phenomenon with no clear cause and effect relationship with asset classes. Even during high inflationary periods, equities have performed well in the long run. Customizing portfolios based on individual cash flow needs and risk tolerance is key, with a focus on rebalancing rather than trying to predict short-term market behavior. Investing in IPOs may have a good story, but base rates for their success are low, and investors should be cautious of incentives driving investment managers and companies to pitch them. John Jennings advises against trying to outguess asset allocations and instead advocates for disciplined rebalancing techniques and investing for the long term.

    The Benefits of Static Asset Allocation and Humility in Investing

    Investors should focus on having a more static asset allocation and avoid trying to outguess the market. Other firms have tactical allocations that are right sometimes but wrong a lot, so it's better to have humility and realize that you're not going to be right all the time. Instead of worrying about short-term inflation and interest rates, it's better to focus on 20, 40, and 50 year timeframes. People tend to overestimate their knowledge and should have more humility and recognize the role that buyers and sellers play in the market. It's important to have a big healthy dose of humility and avoid taking overconfidence, which will hurt the portfolio more often than not.

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    TIP629: Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder's Meeting 2024 w/ Clay Finck and Kyle Grieve
    On today’s episode, Clay and Kyle give a recap of the 2024 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting and share their favorite clips from the Q&A session with Warren Buffett.  IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 02:14 - What Clay and Kyle did during the Berkshire weekend in Omaha. 12:57 - Clay and Kyle’s takeaways from the tribute to Charlie Munger at the Berkshire event. 21:43 - What Buffett would do with Munger if he had one more day with him. 38:29 - How Berkshire’s managers communicate with Warren, Greg, and Ajit. 51:52 - Who the primary capital allocator will be post-Buffett. 63:13 - How Buffett would invest if he were managing a smaller amount of capital. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Books Mentioned: The Psychology of Money. Related Episode: TIP628: The Inner Scorecard w/ Mohnish Pabrai | YouTube Video. Related Episode: TIP552: Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder's Meeting 2023 | YouTube Video. Follow Kyle on Twitter. Follow Clay on Twitter.  Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: River Toyota Fidelity Range Rover CI Financial Meyka AT&T Simon & Schuster NDTCO iFlex Stretch Studios Fundrise Yahoo! Finance Public USPS American Express Shopify HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

    BTC181: The US's Economic Hitman w/ John Perkins

    BTC181: The US's Economic Hitman w/ John Perkins
    John Perkins delves into his past as an economic hitman, explaining the mechanisms and impacts of his actions on global economies. He critiques the fiat system and its role in geopolitical strategies and debt creation. Perkins also explores the potential of Bitcoin and decentralized technologies to challenge established economic controls. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 01:37 - The role and responsibilities of an economic hitman. 23:01 - How the fiat monetary system facilitates economic manipulation and control. 27:44 - Specific tactics used to influence foreign policies and economies. 37:03 - The significant long-term impacts of these economic interventions on target countries. 41:47 - A simple explanation of the petro-dollar system and its global implications. 51:51 - The potential of Bitcoin and other decentralized technologies to disrupt traditional economic systems. 53:48 - Perkins’ personal journey and motivations for leaving his role and advocating for systemic change. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES John Perkin's Website. John’s newest book, Confessions of an Economic Hitman, 3rd Edition. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Check out our Bitcoin Fundamentals Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: River Toyota Fidelity Range Rover CI Financial Meyka AT&T Simon & Schuster NDTCO iFlex Stretch Studios Fundrise Yahoo! Finance Public USPS American Express Shopify Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

    TIP628: The Inner Scorecard w/ Mohnish Pabrai

    TIP628: The Inner Scorecard w/ Mohnish Pabrai
    On today’s show, Stig Brodersen talks with legend value investor Mohnish Pabrai. Since its inception in 1999, one dollar invested in the flagship fund would have turned into $12.51 vs. $4.72 for the S&P500. In the interview, Mohnish Pabrai discusses his approach to a congruent life.  Disclaimer: Stig Brodersen is invested in Pabrai Funds.  IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 10:14 - Which decisions Mohnish Pabrai made to improve his happiness. 15:06 - How to use the Buffett system to grade people. 26:02 - Why Mohnish likes to play bridge more than poker. 31:06 - Which principles Mohnish lives by. 38:58 - How Buffett and Mohnish (do not) take notes. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Mohnish Pabrai’s website. Learn more about Mohnish Pabrai’s Dakshana Foundation. Our interviews with Mohnish Pabrai about Masterclass Investing | YouTube Video. Our interviews with Mohnish Pabrai about investing in stocks | YouTube Video. Our interviews with Mohnish Pabrai about value investing and philanthropy | YouTube Video. Our interviews with Mohnish Pabrai about value investing | YouTube Video. Our interviews with Mohnish Pabrai about value investing in 2021 | YouTube Video. Our interview with William Green about Mohnish Pabrai and much more | YouTube Video. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: River Toyota CI Financial AT&T Yahoo! Finance Long Angle iFlex Stretch Studios Public American Express USPS NerdWallet HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

    TIP627: Best Quality Idea Q2 2024 w/ Clay Finck & Kyle Grieve

    TIP627: Best Quality Idea Q2 2024 w/ Clay Finck & Kyle Grieve
    On today’s episode, Clay and Kyle give an overview of their best quality stock idea for Q2 2024. This quarter, they discuss Lululemon. Lululemon is well-known in the world of quality investors, and the share price has recently declined by over 30%. Tune into today’s episode to hear Clay and Kyle’s thoughts on Lululemon’s business and what the prospective returns might look like going forward. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 09:09 - The competitive advantages of Lululemon. 21:53 - How Lululemon’s margins compare to their competitors. 33:24 - What will drive Lululemon’s future growth. 37:46 - How large Lululemon’s total addressable market is. 44:13 - Our assessment of the management team and balance sheet. 60:24 - Our thoughts on the valuation. 67:29 - Lululemon’s most important key performance indicators.  Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Books mentioned: The Story of Lululemon, 7 Powers Related Episode TIP604: Best Quality Idea Q1 2024 w/ Clay Finck & Kyle Grieve | YouTube Video. Related Episode: TIP587: Dino Polska: A Polish Compounder w/ Clay Finck & Kyle Grieve | YouTube Video. Follow Kyle on Twitter. Follow Clay on Twitter. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: River Toyota CI Financial AT&T Yahoo! Finance Long Angle iFlex Stretch Studios Public American Express USPS NerdWallet HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

    BTC180: The Current Challenges Bitcoin Faces w/ Max Hillebrand (Bitcoin Podcast)

    BTC180: The Current Challenges Bitcoin Faces w/ Max Hillebrand (Bitcoin Podcast)
    Dive deep into Bitcoin's evolution with expert Max Hillebrand. We unravel Mises' action axiom, Hoppe's private property origins, and Rothbard's economic theories. Discover Wasabi Wallet's role in privacy, the potential of Ocean mining, and strategies for Bitcoiners to enhance anonymity. Max also shares his take on Bitcoin's path to ossification and how institutions can shield assets against regulatory overreach. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 04:54 - The principles of Ludwig von Mises' economic dualism and the axiom of action. 06:23 - Hermann Hoppe's theory on private property as a natural emergence. 10:11 - The significance of Murray Rothbard's "Man, Economy, and State, with Power and Markets." 12:59 - An inside look at Bisq and the passion driving decentralized finance platforms. 27:29 - The role of covenants in Bitcoin and their potential to enhance transaction privacy. 34:26 - Innovations in Bitcoin mining pools and the impact of Ocean Bitcoin mining. 38:59 - Strategies beyond CoinJoin for improving privacy for Bitcoin transactions. 01:00:46 - How institutions can use Bitcoin technology to protect their financial sovereignty and self-custody assets. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Max Hillebrand on X (Twitter). Max's website with links to his projects. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Check out our Bitcoin Fundamentals Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: River Toyota CI Financial AT&T Yahoo! Finance Long Angle iFlex Stretch Studios Public American Express USPS NerdWallet Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

    RWH044: How To Beat The Market w/ Bryan Lawrence

    RWH044: How To Beat The Market w/ Bryan Lawrence
    In this episode, William Green chats with Bryan Lawrence, a highly successful hedge fund manager who runs an investment firm called Oakcliff Capital. Bryan almost never gives interviews, so this is a rare opportunity to hear him speak in depth about the advantages of a concentrated value strategy, how he finds new investments, what 6 questions he asks when analyzing any stock, what he’s learned from Buffett & Munger, & how to build a happy life. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 05:42 - What Bryan Lawrence learned from his hugely successful father. 16:30 - What Charlie Munger taught Bryan.  33:07 - How Shelby Cullom Davis turned $200,000 into $800 million. 39:14 - How Bryan has consciously built an investing edge. 43:25 - What he learned from meeting Warren Buffett. 47:15 - Why Bryan looks for three specific characteristics in any business. 59:18 - How to beat the market by making infrequent bets.  1:08:19 - Why he’s obsessed with identifying where he’s wrong. 1:10:17 - How he searches for new investment ideas. 1:14:32 - How he structures his day. 1:44:20 - How to think rationally about fossil fuels & climate change. 1:49:1 - How to build a happy life & great relationships. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Bryan Lawrence’s investment firm, Oakcliff Capital. Check out Poor Charlie’s Almanack. Dean Ornish & Anne Ornish's book Undo It. Robert Cialdini's book Influence. Alain de Boton's book The Consolations of Philosophy. Douglas Stone, Bruce Patton, & Sheila Heen's book Difficult Conversations. John Rothchild's book The Davis Dynasty. Vaclav Smil's book How the World Really Works. David Mackay's book Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air. Gillian Zoe Segal's book Getting There. William Green’s podcast interview with Chris Davis | YouTube Video William Green’s book, “Richer, Wiser, Happier” – read the reviews of this book. Follow William Green on X. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.  SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: River Toyota Meyka AT&T Vacasa Fidelity Monarch Money Yahoo! Finance Long Angle Public USPS American Express Shopify HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm