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    RWH047: Investing In The Era of Climate Change w/ Bruce Usher

    enJuly 07, 2024

    Podcast Summary

    • Climate Change Investments$150 to $200 trillion investment needed for low carbon future, solar to be biggest electricity source by mid 2030s, notable leaders invest in clean energy, risks and opportunities for investors

      We're witnessing a historic transition from a fossil fuel-dependent global economy to a low carbon future, with enormous implications for investors. The Boston Consulting Group estimates that $150 to $200 trillion of investment will be needed over the next three decades to finance this transition. Climate change poses significant risks, but also presents lucrative opportunities, with innovations in clean, sustainable energy sources like solar and wind power leading the way. Notable business leaders like Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Ray Dalio, and Warren Buffett are already investing heavily in these areas. The shift towards renewable energy is expected to make solar the single biggest source of electricity on the planet by the mid 2030s. As a result, understanding both the risks and opportunities of climate change is crucial for investors in this new era.

    • Physical risks of climate changePeople are becoming more aware of the physical risks of climate change and are motivated to take action, including investing in climate solutions and adapting to extreme weather events.

      The physical risks of climate change are becoming increasingly apparent, and this is driving a significant shift in capital markets towards climate solutions. As we experience more extreme weather events, people are becoming more aware of the urgency of the situation and the need to adapt and invest accordingly. This trend is expected to continue for the next several decades as the world decarbonizes its economy. While there is a lot of capital moving in this direction, there is a lack of investment in developing and emerging economies, which poses a unique challenge. The first trend identified in this shift is the manifestation of physical risks – as people begin to feel the effects of climate change, they are becoming more motivated to take action. This can include everything from moving people away from flood-prone areas to investing in renewable energy and electric vehicles. It's important for individuals and businesses to start thinking about how they can protect themselves from the physical risks of climate change, as well as the transition risks that come with changing markets and business models. Ultimately, the key takeaway is that climate change is no longer a problem for the future – it's happening now, and we need to be prepared.

    • Climate risks and technological innovationsClimate change poses risks to individuals and communities, but technological innovations in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and energy storage are driving the transition to a low-carbon economy, making them increasingly competitive and scalable. However, some technologies like green hydrogen and carbon capture are not yet competitive and require cost reductions to be viable.

      Climate change poses significant risks to individuals and communities, including the inability to obtain insurance or mortgages for homes in high-risk areas, potential collapse of community tax bases, and the need for decarbonization to address the issue. Technological innovation, specifically in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and energy storage, is a major trend driving the transition to a low-carbon economy, making these solutions increasingly competitive and scalable. While renewable technologies are already competitive and at scale, other technologies like green hydrogen and carbon capture are not yet competitive and require significant cost reductions to be viable in the long term. It's important to understand the current state of these technologies and their potential impact on the economy and the environment.

    • Renewable energy intermittencyAddressing renewable energy intermittency requires balancing the power grid, using energy storage, and overcoming regulatory and logistical hurdles to build necessary infrastructure

      The transition to renewable energy sources like wind and solar power is complex and involves managing intermittency, but it's not as simple as some criticisms suggest. The power grid is already a complex system that requires balancing supply and demand, and renewable energy sources add to that complexity. However, there are solutions to address the intermittency issue, such as energy storage in electric vehicles and other technologies. The bigger challenge, according to the speaker, is the regulatory and logistical hurdles to building the necessary infrastructure, like transmission lines, to connect renewable energy sources to the grid.

    • Creating substitutes for fossil fuelsCreating alternatives to fossil fuels and pressuring companies through product development is a more effective approach to reducing reliance on them than moral or financial arguments like divestment.

      While we are heavily dependent on fossil fuels and the transition to renewable energy is necessary, it's not effective to approach the issue through moral or financial arguments like divestment. Instead, creating substitutes for fossil fuels and pressuring companies through product development is the key to reducing reliance on them. Additionally, individual investors can align their investments with their values by choosing not to invest in companies whose practices don't align with them, even if it doesn't directly impact emissions reduction. The quote "if it's wrong to wreck the climate, then it's wrong to profit from that wreckage" by Bill McKibben resonates with this perspective, emphasizing the importance of personal values in investment decisions. However, it's important to remember that divestment alone won't solve the problem of climate change.

    • Climate change solutionsYounger generations are driving demand for sustainable business practices, leading companies to make ambitious pledges to reduce carbon emissions and adopt more sustainable business models to attract talent and consumers. However, not all pledges are sincere or measurable, and companies face challenges in decarbonizing certain industries.

      Evolving social norms are driving a massive shift in capital towards climate change solutions, and companies are responding to this trend in various ways. Younger generations, in particular, are recognizing the importance of addressing climate change, leading to increased demand for sustainable business practices. As a result, companies are making ambitious pledges to reduce their carbon emissions, invest in renewable energy, and adopt more sustainable business models to attract top talent and consumers. However, not all of these pledges are sincere or measurable, leading to concerns about greenwashing. Companies face complex challenges in decarbonizing certain industries, and some may exaggerate their plans or make assumptions that later prove to be incorrect. Regardless, the pressure to act on climate change is real, and companies that fail to adapt risk being left behind.

    • ESG factors in investmentsIncorporating ESG factors into investment analysis can help investors better understand and manage risks and identify opportunities for long-term value creation

      Considering Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors when analyzing investments is a smart and practical approach in today's complex economy. Companies' intangible values, such as brand and reputation, can be significantly impacted by these factors, and ignoring them could lead to potential risks and missed opportunities. ESG is not about moving capital to solve climate change or taking money away from certain industries, but rather about investors being more informed and making smarter decisions. The misconceptions and politicization of ESG can overshadow its importance, but its relevance to business, the economy, and society continues to grow. For instance, a company's negative social impact, such as Coca-Cola's water use and carbon emissions, can have significant costs that may not be fully reflected in its market cap. Ultimately, incorporating ESG factors into investment analysis can help investors better understand and manage risks and identify opportunities for long-term value creation.

    • Climate change investmentClimate change presents risks to asset values and investors should consider ESG strategies or thematic funds focused on renewable energy, electric vehicles, and climate solutions to minimize risk and benefit from the shift towards low carbon.

      Climate change is no longer a distant concern for investors, but a present reality that needs to be factored into investment decisions. Asset values are starting to be impacted by climate risks, and failure to consider these factors could lead to stranded assets. However, there are ways for investors to protect themselves and benefit from the shift towards low carbon. This includes investing in funds that follow ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) strategies or thematic funds focused on renewable energy, electric vehicles, and climate solutions. These funds can help minimize risk while still providing market exposure. It's important for investors to avoid being swayed by marketing pitches and to focus on reducing exposure to high-pollution companies without sacrificing market performance. Additionally, there are ETFs that track broad market indices without fossil fuels, providing a market-like investment while avoiding the worst polluters. Ultimately, investing in a low-carbon future is not only a moral imperative but also a smart financial decision.

    • Investor StrategiesInvestors employ various strategies, including market-matching, thematic, and impact-first investments, each with unique risks and potential rewards.

      Investors have different strategies when it comes to putting their money into the market. The first strategy is to invest in companies that are expected to perform roughly in line with the market, providing stability and protection against potential turbulence. The second strategy is thematic investing, where investors bet on specific trends or industries, such as climate solutions, with the potential for higher returns and greater impact. The third strategy, impact first, is for high net worth individuals, who can afford to take on higher risk and longer time frames to invest in groundbreaking, high-risk companies that could potentially revolutionize industries and make a significant impact on climate change. Bill Gates and other billionaires have demonstrated the potential for substantial financial returns and world-changing impact through their investments in this area. However, it's important to note that these investments come with significant risks and require sophisticated resources and expertise.

    • Investing in decarbonization businessesConsider clear government policy support, focus on appealing products, and prioritize strong business fundamentals when investing in decarbonization businesses. For consumers, focus on renewable energy and electric vehicles for significant impact.

      When it comes to investing in businesses focused on reducing carbon emissions, it's essential to consider various factors beyond just the decarbonization aspect. Look for clear government policy support, but ensure the business can thrive without it. Be cautious about assumptions around changing consumer behavior and focus on products that make the transition to sustainability more appealing, not radically different. Lastly, prioritize strong business fundamentals, such as solid management teams, cash flows, and profitability, as the foundation for success. For consumers, the most significant impact can be made through sourcing electricity from renewable sources and considering electric vehicles when it's time for a new car. Tesla currently has a significant lead in the market, but competition is increasing from both established and international car companies.

    • Electric Vehicle Market CompetitionDespite intensifying competition, the transition to renewable energy is inevitable and governments are taking action to drive this change, presenting both risks and opportunities for companies and individuals.

      The competition in the electric vehicle market is intensifying, particularly in China, making it increasingly challenging for companies like Tesla to maintain their dominance. However, despite the challenges, the decarbonization of the economy is inevitable, and governments are starting to take action to drive this transition. The Inflation Reduction Act in the US is an example of economic and industrial policy aimed at making the US a leader in the transition to renewable energy. While there are risks and uncertainties associated with government policy and the transition to a decarbonized economy, it's important for individuals and organizations to stay informed and adaptable to navigate these changes. The key to overcoming biases and thinking clearly about complex environmental issues is to stay informed, seek out diverse perspectives, and approach the topic with an open and curious mindset.

    • Climate change as an economic problemSeparating emotional and ethical aspects from economic realities can lead to effective climate change solutions. Climate change is an economic problem requiring cost understanding, reduction, and business context.

      Climate change is not just an environmental issue, but also an economic problem that requires a practical and objective approach. According to Bruce Asha, separating the emotional and ethical aspects of environmental issues from the economic realities of climate change can lead to more effective solutions. He emphasizes that climate change is an economic problem that requires understanding costs, finding ways to reduce them, and dealing with it in a business context. Asha also argues that climate change should not be a political issue and that debating its existence is a waste of time. Instead, focusing on practical solutions and prioritizing resources can help address the issue effectively. By shifting the conversation from the emotional realm to the more objective business perspective, we can make progress towards finding sustainable solutions for the future.

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    TIP641: Improve Decision Making with Mental Models w/ Clay Finck & Kyle Grieve

    TIP641: Improve Decision Making with Mental Models w/ Clay Finck & Kyle Grieve
    On today’s episode, Kyle Grieve and Clay Finck continue their conversation on Investing: The Last Liberal Art by Robert Hagstrom. We discuss details on why using the right explanation for a business is so important to a good investment thesis, simple ways to improve your reading to get more out of the books and content that you consume, how to use simple mathematical concepts to improve your decision making in real-time, how to understand better System I and System II thinking and how it directly applies to investing, some of the latest mental models Kyle has learned from interviewing recent guests, and a whole lot more! IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 03:34 - How to use the proper explanations in your analysis to determine the right comparable best. 06:18 - Why Tesla is so misunderstood. 10:33 - Why the economics of Dino Polska make it an invalid comparison to other grocers. 12:02 - The power of narratives in investing and how we can guard ourselves from getting overly optimistic. 17:43 - How to optimize reading for learning. 40:18 - How to use Bayes theorem to tip odds in your favour and change your position sizing. 45:45 - Why value and prices become disconnected, and how human psychology plays into this. 50:20 - Why intuition (system I thinking) is so difficult to rely on in the stock market. 01:09:22 - How to make thinking in mental models a habit. 01:14:59 - Some of the latest mental models Kyle has learned from interviewing some of his latest guests. And so much more! Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Buy Investing: The Last Liberal Art here. Buy The Great Mental Models here. Learn more about Mental Models here. Buy Poor Charlie’s Almanck here. Buy More Than You Know here Follow Clay on Twitter and LinkedIn. Follow Kyle on Twitter and LinkedIn Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: River Toyota Sun Life The Bitcoin Way Meyka Sound Advisory Industrious Range Rover iFlex Stretch Studios Briggs & Riley Public American Express USPS Shopify HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

    TIP640: Investing: The Last Liberal Art w/ Clay Finck & Kyle Grieve

    TIP640: Investing: The Last Liberal Art w/ Clay Finck & Kyle Grieve
    On today’s episode, Clay and Kyle dive into Robert Hagstrom’s book — Investing: The Last Liberal Art. Charlie Munger is famous for popularizing the use of mental models and pulling key ideas from related fields and implementing them to the world of investing. In today’s episode, that’s exactly what we do, starting with the fields of physics, biology, sociology, and psychology. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 01:27 - How learning new mental models can help us be better investors. 10:49 - Concepts in physics that we can carry over to investing. 25:35 - Lessons we can learn from evolution and complex adaptive systems. 42:00 - What leads to a stock oscillating above and below the intrinsic value. 54:15 - The primary psychological biases as lead to investment mistakes. 01:05:43 - Why Lumine’s incentive structure is a structure worth studying. And so much more! Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Buy Investing: The Last Liberal Art here. Read Seeking Winners blog here. Buy What I Learned about Investing from Darwin here. Buy The Uncertainty Solution here. Learn more about Charlie Munger’s speech here. Learn more about Mental Models here. Read Li Lu’s write-up on value investing in China here. Buy Poor Charlie’s Almanck here. Follow Clay on Twitter and LinkedIn. Follow Kyle on Twitter and LinkedIn. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: River Toyota Sun Life The Bitcoin Way Meyka Sound Advisory Industrious Range Rover iFlex Stretch Studios Briggs & Riley Public American Express USPS Shopify HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

    BTC188: Claude Shannon and Information Theory with Jimmy Soni (Bitcoin Podcast)

    BTC188: Claude Shannon and Information Theory with Jimmy Soni (Bitcoin Podcast)
    In this episode of the Bitcoin Fundamentals Podcast, Jimmy Soni, author of "A Mind at Play" and "The Founders," joins us to discuss the life and work of Claude Shannon. We explore Shannon's groundbreaking contributions to information theory, including the concept of entropy and its importance in data transmission. Jimmy explains how Shannon's work laid the foundation for many of the technologies we take for granted today, including Bitcoin and blockchain technology. We also touch on stories from "The Founders," highlighting the tech pioneers and their innovative contributions. Join us for an in-depth discussion on information theory, Bitcoin, and the history of technology. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 02:06 - The life and work of Claude Shannon, the father of information theory. 07:10 - The foundational role of Shannon's work in modern technology. 20:31 - The relevance of information theory to Bitcoin and blockchain. 20:52 - Stories from Jimmy Soni's book "The Founders" about tech pioneers. 28:58 - How Shannon's concept of entropy relates to data transmission. 32:52 - Insights into the problem-solving approaches of early tech innovators. 40:42 - How Bitcoin investors can apply Shannon's principles to their strategies. 55:16 - The impact of Shannon's interdisciplinary approach on his innovations. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Jimmy’s book, A Mind at Play. Jimmy’s Book, The Founders. Jimmy's X (Twitter Account) Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Check out our Bitcoin Fundamentals Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: River Toyota Sun Life The Bitcoin Way Meyka Sound Advisory Industrious Range Rover iFlex Stretch Studios Briggs & Riley Public American Express USPS Shopify Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm