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    E151: WW3 risk, War with Iran?, 4.9% GDP, startup failures growing, new Speaker & more

    enOctober 27, 2023

    Podcast Summary

    • Addressing the Risk of a Major War in the Middle EastEnding the war in Ukraine is crucial to prevent further escalation and ensure stability in the region.

      There is a growing concern over the risk of a major war or catastrophe occurring in the Middle East. This concern was highlighted during a Twitter space discussion hosted by David Sacks, along with Vivek and Elon, where they discussed the need to prevent World War 3. The discussion centered around the potential chain reactions and unintended consequences that could arise from the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Elon particularly emphasized the importance of ending the war in Ukraine to avoid further escalation. It was noted that despite the counteroffensive efforts by Ukraine, they have not made significant progress in pushing back Russian forces. Therefore, the focus should be on working towards a ceasefire and resolution to prevent further destabilization in the region.

    • Risks and Scenarios in Ukraine and Middle East ConflictsResolving conflicts with Russia is crucial to avoid dangerous proxy wars, while being prepared for different scenarios in the Middle East and cautious of potential invasion desires in Iran.

      There is a risk of escalation and unintended consequences in the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. It was agreed upon in a Twitter space discussion that it is important to resolve the conflict with Russia and normalize relations, as a proxy war with Russia poses immense dangers. In terms of the Middle East conflict, three scenarios were discussed. Scenario 1 involves a successful Israeli military operation with deterrence towards Hezbollah and Iran. Scenario 2 depicts a tougher guerrilla fight, increased protests, and eventual ceasefire after a few months. Scenario 3 is the most concerning, where the conflict spirals out of control with Hezbollah, the West Bank, and Iran getting involved. It is important to be aware of these possibilities and the potential desire of some neocons to invade Iran.

    • The Wall Street Journal's Alleged Agenda: Inciting War with IranApproach news headlines critically, considering historical context and gathering sufficient evidence, to avoid escalating tensions and potentially walking into war.

      The Wall Street Journal has been accused of pushing an agenda to incite a war with Iran. This accusation stems from their publication of stories claiming Iran's involvement in certain incidents, despite those claims being refuted by Israeli and Washington officials. The Wall Street Journal's agenda is believed to reflect the interests of its owners and sources, and there are suspicions that they are being manipulated by the Military Global Complex and neocons. The historical context of US-Iran relations is important to consider, as older generations have witnessed regime changes and changing dynamics. It is crucial to approach news headlines critically, as believing and acting upon them without sufficient evidence can lead to escalating tensions and potentially walking into war.

    • The Media's Influence on Public Opinion and Political DecisionsIndividuals should critically assess media outlets, like the Wall Street Journal, to understand potential biases and agendas and make informed decisions about complex geopolitical issues.

      The media plays a significant role in shaping public opinion and potentially influencing political decisions. The discussion surrounding the Wall Street Journal's reporting on Iran highlights the potential bias and agenda-setting of media organizations. The editorial policy of the Wall Street Journal, as observed by the panel, leans towards a hawkish stance on Iran. This is evident in their opinion pieces and news coverage. The Journal's emphasis on deterring Iran through military actions raises questions about the objectivity and balance of their reporting. It is crucial for individuals to critically assess the news they consume, considering the potential motivations and agenda of media outlets. By doing so, they can make more informed decisions and have a balanced understanding of complex geopolitical issues.

    • Inaccurate and Biased Reporting on Ukraine and the Alarming Possibility of a Nuclear ConflictAccurate and unbiased reporting is crucial, especially in sensitive matters like international conflicts. Furthermore, it is important to prioritize diplomatic solutions and avoid actions that could lead to catastrophic consequences in escalating tensions between nuclear powers.

      Accurate and unbiased reporting is crucial, especially in sensitive matters like international conflicts. The conversation highlights the concern that the Wall Street Journal's reporting on Ukraine was highly inaccurate and biased, which can significantly impact public perception and decision-making. Additionally, the discussion raises the alarming possibility of a nuclear conflict, fueled by rising conventional wars and the scarcity of resources needed to sustain them. This serves as a reminder of the potential consequences and dangers associated with escalating tensions between nuclear powers. The need to prioritize diplomatic solutions and avoid actions that could lead to a catastrophic chain of events is emphasized.

    • The Concerns and Dangers of Nuclear WeaponsThe normalization of discussions about nuclear weapons, along with historical examples of respected individuals contemplating their use, raises questions about the limits of power and the potential risks in conflicts with formidable nations like Iran. Caution is essential in dealing with nuclear threats.

      There is a real concern about the potential use of nuclear weapons and the normalization of such discussions. The idea that rational people would never use these weapons is not entirely true, as historical examples show that even respected individuals and countries have contemplated their use. Additionally, the shifting morality surrounding the use of certain weapons based on tactical necessity raises questions about the limits of power and the willingness to compromise on principles. The United States' current inventory replacement times for key systems and the weakened industrial capacity further highlight the potential risks and vulnerabilities. The belief that the US is still the dominant global superpower may lead to dangerous miscalculations, especially in conflicts with nations like Iran that possess formidable capabilities and regional proxies. The threat of nuclear war and the destabilization of the Middle East should not be taken lightly, urging caution in making idle threats.

    • The Increasing Concern of Nuclear Weapons and the Role of Diplomacy in Maintaining PeaceWhile the risk of nuclear weapon use may be low in the short term, it becomes significant over time. Diplomatic efforts are essential in preventing further escalation and maintaining global peace.

      The proliferation of nuclear weapons poses a long-term and increasing concern. While the probability of nuclear weapon use may be low in any given period of time, over the course of many years, the risk becomes significant. The presence of tactical nuclear weapons in different forms of delivery further adds to this concern. The potential for danger arises when individuals or nations feel trapped with no way out, leading them to consider pressing the button and using nuclear weapons. However, the emotional impact and high stakes involved often serve as a deterrent, causing actual actions to be relatively deescalatory. Despite ongoing conflicts and simmering tensions, the hope lies in preventing further escalation through diplomacy and international efforts to maintain peace.

    • The delicate and dangerous conflict in the Middle East and doubts about diplomatic abilitiesAchieving a best-case scenario of degrading Hamas and maintaining peace would require skillful diplomacy, but doubts arise about the Biden administration's ability to manage the complex situation. Coordinated political decisions also raise concerns.

      The ongoing conflict in the Middle East remains a delicate and dangerous situation. While there is a chance for de-escalation, it is still unlikely due to Israel's determination to take action. The Israeli government feels compelled to respond to the attacks on their citizens and cannot afford to be seen as weak. However, the best-case scenario would involve a relatively short military operation that significantly degrades Hamas and their capabilities, followed by a ceasefire agreement before the situation spirals out of control. Achieving this outcome would require skillful diplomacy from the Biden administration, but there are doubts about their ability to manage such a complex situation. Additionally, the presence of certain senators in a meeting with Mohammed bin Salman raises concerns about coordinated political decisions.

    • The Troubling Uncertainty Surrounding Consumer Demand and Its Implications on Fintech and Start-Up EconomyThe current economic situation, characterized by unexpectedly high growth but concerns over consumer demand sustainability, is causing market confusion and leading to declines in leading fintech companies. This uncertainty is affecting start-up funding and requires careful navigation.

      The economy is experiencing strong growth, but there are concerns about the sustainability of consumer demand. The GDP has seen higher than expected growth, and inflation is somewhat under control. However, the markets are confounded by this situation, as they were anticipating a recession. The uncertainty has led to overreactions to small amounts of data, especially in the fintech sector, which relies heavily on capturing consumer demand. Many leading fintech companies have seen significant declines in their stocks. The underlying issue is the bet that consumer demand is shrinking, which could lead to a recession. This has implications for the overall market and the ability of companies, particularly in Silicon Valley, to go public. The decline in public comps and valuations is putting pressure on startups and their valuations, affecting the entire startup economy. Late-stage funding rounds have been delayed due to the uncertainty of when companies can go public. Convert or bridge rounds are becoming more common, where existing investors fund companies to extend their runway. The situation requires a cautious and strategic approach from investors and businesses alike.

    • Challenges faced by startups in a post-bubble marketStartups need to prioritize profitability and efficient growth to succeed in the current market conditions and secure further funding.

      The startup market is experiencing the consequences of an inflated bubble in 2021. Many startups raised massive funding rounds during this time and haven't had to raise additional capital for a few years. However, as these companies run out of cash and need to raise more funds, they are facing challenges. Some are burning too much money or lack the necessary numbers to justify another round, while others are unable to raise due to broken processes. This dynamic is expected to continue for the next 18 months as the market shifts towards prioritizing growth with unit economics and efficiency. Profitability is becoming a key factor, and startups that have found a path to profitability have more options available to them. Overall, this is a delayed reaction to the changing market conditions and the weeding out of companies that no longer meet the criteria for investment.

    • Shift towards profitability amid changing exit compsThe startup ecosystem must adapt to the valuation reset and prioritize generating extraordinary outcomes to sustain returns in a challenging investment climate.

      The startup ecosystem is shifting its focus towards profitability. The changing exit comps, as discussed by Jason Calacanis, David Sacks, and Chamath Palihapitiya, have made it difficult for investors to make good returns. The valuation levels are returning to pre-COVID levels, and even slightly below, due to the higher long-term rates. This means that the cost of capital and hurdle rates are higher, making it harder to make money when the money supply is shrinking. Many venture firms are likely to be shut down, leading to more consolidation and potential loss of investments. The industry needs to adapt to this valuation reset and focus on generating extraordinary outcomes to sustain returns.

    • The Impact of Top Performing Companies on Venture Returns and the Importance of Valuation and Entry Prices.The success of a few companies can greatly influence venture returns, but valuation and entry prices still play a crucial role. Managing exits and seeking liquidity opportunities are essential for effective portfolio management.

      Venture returns are heavily influenced by a handful of companies. While market metrics are often seen as a performance driver, they mainly impact the mid-tier of venture returns. The top quartile of returns, generated by companies like Uber, Slack, and SpaceX, can generate massive multiples, making the initial entry price less significant. However, it's crucial to note that the valuation framework and entry prices can significantly impact returns. Currently, there is a growing trend of people seeking liquidity by selling shares at lower prices. This indicates a potential market clearing price for these unicorns. To manage exits effectively, portfolios must be adjusted, and enterprises should actively seek liquidity opportunities. Additionally, the upcoming IPO of Stripe is expected to set a benchmark for valuations in the industry.

    • The stock market's disconnect from the economy and its potential impact on consumers.It is crucial for individuals and the government to be aware of their financial standing and avoid excessive spending, as the stock market's fluctuations can have consequences on their wealth and spending habits.

      The stock market seems to be experiencing a significant disconnect from the overall economy. While Main Street is showing signs of strength with robust GDP growth and employment numbers, Wall Street is struggling, particularly with the top tech stocks. The market is being propped up by a handful of companies, but even those are starting to decline. This disconnect could have consequences for the average consumer, as their wealth and spending habits may be impacted by market fluctuations. Additionally, the high levels of credit card debt and servicing costs are a cause for concern. It's essential for individuals and the government to pay attention to their balance sheets and not overlook the potential consequences of excessive spending.

    • Fragile Economy and Concerns of DownturnThe current economic situation is fragile, with concerns of a potential downturn, high consumer debt, geopolitical instability, and major banks facing losses. Transparency is crucial to avoid consequences in the technology and automotive industries.

      The current economic situation is fragile and there are concerns about its sustainability. Many commentators, including Bill Ackman, believe that the positive GDP numbers may be a peak and that a downturn could be on the horizon. This fragility is further exacerbated by geopolitical instability, upcoming elections, and potential chaos in the country. It is important to note the potential consequences of high levels of consumer debt, with many individuals potentially waking up to significant credit card bills that they may be unable to pay. The government may need to intervene, but there are concerns about the long-term implications, such as the inflation of financial assets. Additionally, major US banks are facing large unrealized losses, which could lead to further instability. Another point of concern is the recent revelation that Cruise, a self-driving car company, allegedly withheld footage of an accident, resulting in their permit suspension. This highlights the importance of transparency and the potential consequences of dishonesty in the technology and automotive industries.

    • Unforeseen Impacts of Hurricane Otis: Forecasting Failures and Unprecedented Weather PatternsLack of preparation and forecasting for rapidly intensifying storms, combined with abnormal sea surface temperatures, can lead to devastating consequences. Improved forecasting methods and emergency response systems are crucial in responding to unpredictable weather events.

      There were major failures in forecasting and preparing for Hurricane Otis in Mexico. The storm rapidly escalated from a tropical storm to a category 5 hurricane in just six hours, catching forecasters completely off guard. This unusual and unexpected event was not accounted for in any weather models or simulations, leading to the lack of warnings and preparation. The devastation caused by the hurricane was intensified by the abnormally high sea surface temperatures off the coast of Acapulco, reaching a scorching 88 degrees Fahrenheit. This extreme heat fueled the storm, causing it to extract even more energy from the ocean and resulting in increased wind speeds. The incident highlights the challenges faced in accurately predicting and responding to unpredictable weather events, emphasizing the need for more efficient forecasting methods and improved emergency response systems.

    • Rising ocean temperatures and increasing extreme weather events pose an economic threat to property insurance and reinsurance markets.The increased frequency of extreme weather events is leading to higher insurance rates, making it difficult for individuals to afford insurance and impacting the real estate market.

      The frequency of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, is increasing due to rising ocean temperatures. This increase in frequency poses a significant economic threat in terms of property insurance and reinsurance markets. When a catastrophic event occurs, reinsurance markets take a loss and subsequently raise rates. These increased rates trickle down to insurance policies, impacting consumers, property developers, and those with mortgages. As the cost of insurance doubles or triples, it becomes increasingly difficult for individuals to afford it, especially in high-risk coastal areas. This puts pressure on the real estate market, with homeowners forced to sell or stop insuring their properties. State actors, like Florida's underfunded reinsurance pool, may not be able to fully support and sustain these asset values.

    • Alarming consequences of climate change on coastal real estate valuesUrgent need for proactive measures to protect coastal communities and investments from the risks of climate change.

      The potential consequences of climate change on coastal real estate values are alarming. The reinsurance industry expresses concerns that these assets are overvalued and that the federal government may eventually have to step in to cover their insolvency. Without insurance, homeowners will be forced to sell their properties, revealing their true lower value. Additionally, rising oceans and the corrosive effects of the sea pose a significant threat to homes in areas like Malibu. As a result, these multimillion-dollar properties are at risk of deteriorating and collapsing into the water. This highlights the urgent need for proactive measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change and protect coastal communities and their investments.

    • The Changing Middle East: A Call for Engagement and UnderstandingAmericans and business leaders should engage with the Middle East to foster positive change, recognizing the shared desires for peace, prosperity, and personal freedoms among its people.

      The Middle East is undergoing rapid and significant changes, both politically and economically. Personal and economic freedoms have transformed, while the political system remains somewhat unchanged. Contrary to previous misconceptions, the people in this region are not much different from those in other countries. They share similar desires for peace, prosperity, and personal freedoms. It is crucial for Americans and business leaders to engage with this region, not only for their own benefit but also for the betterment of humanity and society as a whole. By building relationships and investing in companies, positive change can be achieved. This podcast has highlighted the importance of gaining firsthand knowledge and understanding before forming opinions about a particular region or country.

    • Mike Johnson: A Controversial Choice for the Republican PartyThe Republican Party's decision to select a relatively unknown and inexperienced candidate like Mike Johnson raises concerns about his extreme social conservatism, controversial views, and potential vulnerability to campaign ads. It also underscores the party's struggle in finding suitable candidates and maintaining a cohesive message.

      The Republican Party has chosen a relatively unknown and inexperienced candidate, Mike Johnson, as a representative, primarily because he is seen as a "nice guy." However, Johnson's extreme social conservatism and controversial views on abortion, gay marriage, entitlements, and election denial may prove problematic for the party. While some GOP members view him as sufficiently conservative, his lack of experience and potential vulnerability to campaign ads could weaken the party's position. Additionally, Johnson's support for critical race theory (CRT) as a systemic issue suggests a disconnect from the party's stance on cultural issues. This choice highlights the challenges faced by the Republicans in finding suitable candidates and maintaining a cohesive message.

    • Reflections on Republican hesitancy and the uncertain duration of the current situationRepublicans are cautious about returning to chaos, the duration of the current situation is uncertain, and negative media stories can influence public perception.

      In short, one big takeaway from the conversation is that the Republicans may be hesitant to go back into chaos after their recent experiences. The discussion speculates on the length of time the current situation will last, using the term "Scaramucci" as a unit of time. While there is uncertainty about the exact duration, it is likely to be longer than a few Scaramuccis. The conversation also touches on the portrayal of a political figure in the media, and how the drip of negative stories can change public perception. Additionally, there is mention of Trump's legal cases and the alleged deep state conspiracy, with a lighthearted comment on a particular incident during an election hearing.

    • Uncertainty, investigations, and potential implications in ongoing legal battlesAmidst the seriousness, finding solace in humor highlights the complex and unpredictable nature of the legal landscape.

      There is a sense of uncertainty surrounding the ongoing legal investigations involving prominent figures. The conversation highlighted the possibility of flipping lower-level individuals to gather more information and potentially implicate higher-level figures. However, it is questioned whether there was even a crime to begin with. The discussion also touched on the consequences that may arise if convicted, such as potential implications for the upcoming election. Amidst the uncertainty and seriousness of the situation, there was a moment of humor as the hosts referred to a previous incident involving a fart and joked about finding solace in laughter during these trying times. Ultimately, the takeaways suggest a complex and unpredictable legal landscape.

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    https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/gs-research/gen-ai-too-much-spend-too-little-benefit/report.pdf

    https://www.theinformation.com/articles/andreessen-horowitz-is-building-a-stash-of-more-than-20-000-gpus-to-win-ai-deals

    https://x.com/natfriedman/status/1668650915505803266

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13594307/french-election-candidates-drop-rn-le-pen-victory.html

    https://x.com/CilComLFC/status/1810110921383010563

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/10/opinion/joe-biden-democratic-nominee.html

    https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2024/07/11/what-obama-and-pelosi-are-doing-about-biden-00167520

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/disastrous-biden-campaign-fundraising-takes-major-hit-rcna161214

    https://x.com/greenfield64/status/1811199262350532767

    https://x.com/Olivianuzzi/status/1808924240529535352

    https://x.com/peterjhasson/status/1811052411584164210

    https://youtu.be/kOeARghNIaY

    https://www.semafor.com/article/07/07/2024/blitz-primary-could-open-up-democratic-race-if-biden-drops-out

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    (1:37) Economy: Regulation, taxes, tariffs, taming inflation, de-dollarization

    (12:02) Federal debt: growth, spend control, where to cut, role of energy, nuclear

    (20:22) Foreign policy: Ukraine/Russia

    (25:05) Foreign policy: Israel/Palestine

    (28:13) Abortion: Stance on a national ban

    (31:09) Foreign policy: China

    (32:33) COVID: Origins, Fauci relationship, deep state, bad deals

    (39:39) Border: Wall, immigration, H-1Bs, recruiting global talent

    (46:07) JFK Files: Full release, importance of transparency

    (48:06) Debate prediction

    (50:15) Post-interview debrief

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

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    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

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    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://x.com/tyler/status/1803872859938549920

    https://x.com/cameron/status/1803876953860247831

    https://x.com/LHSummers/status/1802097688269181436

    https://x.com/davidsacks/status/179888324567070746

    Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser

    Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser

    (0:00) Bestie intros: bringing up the energy!

    (8:48) Trump fundraiser recap

    (23:16) Elon's comp package approved by shareholders

    (40:12) Apple announces "Apple Intelligence" and ChatGPT deal at WWDC

    (50:17) OpenAI reportedly hits a $3.4B revenue run rate

    (1:05:26) Macro debate: State of the US economy?

    Follow Tim Naki:

    https://www.instagram.com/tim.naki

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://www.instagram.com/tim.naki

    https://x.com/eoghan/status/1799161733766062545

    https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1800979079472288145

    https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1797086962626494840

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1801084780035154058

    https://x.com/jhall/status/1795794521604718814

    https://fortune.com/2024/06/10/elon-musk-pay-package-tesla-lawyers-delaware-chancery-payout-stock-award-56-billion

    https://companiesmarketcap.com

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXeOiIDNNek

    https://x.com/chiefaioffice/status/1801022115426009309

    https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=%2Fg%2F11khcfz0y2&hl=en

    https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=%2Fg%2F11khcfz0y2&hl=en

    https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

    https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/jobs-report-may-2024

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003

    https://www.warren.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/2024.06.10%20Letter%20to%20Fed.%20re%20interest%20rates.pdf

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/07/jobs-report-may-2024-us-job-gains-totaled-272000-in-may.html

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL

    https://x.com/VinnyLingham/status/1801129023168454907

    https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1aw5bbb/world_economy_on_nvidias_shoulders

    https://www.instagram.com/stocktradingmemes/p/C3qer-sSfb0/?img_index=1

    https://x.com/jameslavish/status/1801248976911634648

    https://x.com/peterfenton/status/1801300735520608529

    DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market

    DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market

    (0:00) Besties intros!

    (2:10) Responding to recent media coverage

    (17:58) DOJ/FTC strike deal to target Nvidia, OpenAI, and Microsoft

    (32:40) Meme stocks are back: Keith Gill aka Roaring Kitty resurfaces, disclosing nine figure position in GameStop

    (58:36) Citadel and BlackRock back TXSE to take on NYSE and Nasdaq

    (1:02:34) Apple to announce OpenAI iPhone deal at WWDC

    (1:09:07) Science Corner: Alarming ocean temps continue, what to expect for hurricane season

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQQhAg0mfF8

    https://x.com/vkhosla/status/1769529054955446533

    https://x.com/vkhosla/status/1796293773389127987

    https://x.com/shaunmmaguire/status/1796415146077954329

    https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1798100723617698097

    https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1798779830521000426

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/05/technology/nvidia-microsoft-openai-antitrust-doj-ftc.html

    https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ftc-opens-antitrust-probe-of-microsoft-ai-deal-29b5169a

    https://companiesmarketcap.com

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9cO3-MLHOM

    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/29/newsom-california-artifical-intelligence-regulations-00160519

    https://www.reddit.com/user/DeepFuckingValue

    https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/e-trade-considers-kicking-meme-stock-leader-keith-gill-off-platform-f2003ec4

    https://x.com/TheRoaringKitty/status/1789807772542067105

    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GME:NYSE

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-VO6dtFRes

    https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/keith-gills-gamestop-trades-pose-conundrum-for-market-cops-70cc5301

    https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/GME/gamestop/revenue

    https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/gamestop-burned-andrew-left-in-2021-hes-betting-against-the-stock-again-4377cecb

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/18/business/melvin-capital-gamestop-short.html

    https://www.instagram.com/tim.naki/reels

    https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/new-texas-stock-exchange-takes-aim-at-new-yorks-dominance-e3b4d9ba

    https://listingcenter.nasdaq.com/assets/Board%20Diversity%20Disclosure%20Five%20Things.pdf

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-05/why-is-apple-aapl-teaming-up-with-openai-both-companies-need-each-other

    https://x.com/leonsimons8/status/1793319395080520036

    Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?

    Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?

    (0:00) Bestie Intros: Jason's first show for his new production company

    (2:15) Why Sacks and Chamath are hosting a Trump fundraiser

    (18:40) House COVID investigation: findings, cover-up, what's next?

    (41:36) The Deep State Problem: unelected bureaucrats running three letter agencies for decades

    (53:04) Crypto Corner with Chamath

    (1:04:15) State of SaaS: Salesforce drops 20%, market teetering

    (1:20:10) Trump verdict: guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records

    (1:37:36) Are we seeing an AI correction?

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://oversight.house.gov/release/new-select-subcommittee-report-recommends-ecohealth-alliance-president-debarred-and-criminally-investigated-exposes-failures-in-nih-grant-procedures

    https://oversight.house.gov/release/hearing-wrap-up-nih-repeatedly-refutes-ecohealth-alliance-president-dr-peter-daszaks-testimony-tabak-testimony-reveals-federal-grant-procedures-in-need-of-serious-reform

    https://www.axios.com/2021/07/20/fauci-rand-paul-wuhan-institute

    https://oversight.house.gov/release/breaking-hhs-suspends-funding-and-proposes-formal-debarment-of-ecohealth-alliance-cites-evidence-from-covid-select-report

    https://oversight.house.gov/release/breaking-hhs-to-debar-dr-peter-daszak-president-of-ecohealth-alliance

    https://x.com/emilyakopp/status/1795482121739354552

    https://x.com/R_H_Ebright/status/1795454118594568312

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGxSlW0NrB4

    https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/dual-use-research/feds-lift-gain-function-research-pause-offer-guidance

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-flu-virus-risk-worth-taking/2011/12/30/gIQAM9sNRP_story.html

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3484390

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext

    https://oversight.house.gov/release/new-covid-select-memo-details-allegations-of-wrongdoing-and-illegal-activity-by-dr-faucis-senior-scientific-advisor

    https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-deficit

    https://x.com/KatherineEban

    https://x.com/emilyakopp

    https://www.semafor.com/article/05/28/2024/a-dying-empire-led-by-bad-people-poll-finds-young-voters-despairing-over-us-politics

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvQTXAgtA6s

    https://s23.q4cdn.com/574569502/files/doc_financials/2025/q1/CRM-Q1-FY25-Earnings-Press-Release-w-financials.pdf

    https://www.investors.com/news/economy/federal-reserve-core-pce-inflation-gdp-q1-jobless-claims-sp-500

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/05/30/nyregion/trump-trial-verdict

    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DELL:NYSE

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-30/us-gdp-grew-at-softer-pace-as-spending-inflation-marked-down

    Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls

    Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls

    (0:00) Bestie intros: Recapping "General AI Hospital"

    (2:46) Scarlett Johansson vs. OpenAI

    (14:37) OpenAI's novel off-boarding agreements, ex-employee equity problem, and safety team resignations

    (25:35) Nvidia crushes earnings again, but it faces a trillion-dollar problem

    (40:05) Understanding why economic sentiment is so negative among US citizens despite positive data

    (1:02:36) New study shows plastics in testicles

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://x.com/BobbyAllyn/status/1792679435701014908

    https://x.com/sama/status/1790075827666796666

    https://openai.com/index/how-the-voices-for-chatgpt-were-chosen

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/05/22/openai-scarlett-johansson-chatgpt-ai-voice

    https://x.com/SydSteyerhart/status/1792981291266138531

    https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/351132/openai-vested-equity-nda-sam-altman-documents-employees

    https://x.com/sama/status/1791936857594581428

    https://x.com/ilyasut/status/1790517455628198322

    https://x.com/janleike/status/1790603862132596961

    https://x.com/janleike/status/1791498184671605209

    https://openai.com/index/openai-announces-leadership-transition

    https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025

    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/INTC:NASDAQ

    https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/nvidia-2023-vs-cisco-1999-will-history-repeat

    https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/06/is-nvidia-doomed-to-be-the-next-cisco-what-investo

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/nvidia-and-the-cautionary-tale-of-cisco-systems.379022

    https://chamath.substack.com/p/2023-annual-letter

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2024/03/23/summers-inflation-reached-18-in-2022-using-the-governments-previous-formula

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/22/poll-economy-recession-biden

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCLACBW027SBOG

    https://x.com/KariLake/status/1792986501820850333

    https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2024/apr/how-big-mac-index-relates-overall-consumer-inflation

    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MCD:NYSE

    https://www.wsj.com/economy/gdp-and-the-dow-are-up-but-what-about-american-well-being-87f90e6d

    https://www.consumerreports.org/health/food-contaminants/the-plastic-chemicals-hiding-in-your-food-a7358224781

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2605.2007.00837.x

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12708228

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7559247

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21524797

    https://academic.oup.com/toxsci/advance-article/doi/10.1093/toxsci/kfae060/7673133

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6yuYkfNh-k

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYQjShJxCtM

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_4jrMwvZ2A

    GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?

    GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?

    (0:00) Bestie Intros: Recapping Phil Hellmuth's birthday weekend

    (7:38) OpenAI launches GPT-4o: better, faster, cheaper

    (29:40) Sacks demos Glue: How AI unlocked his Slack killer

    (40:12) Friedberg walks through his major breakthrough at Ohalo

    (1:01:35) Stanley Druckenmiller bets on Argentina and Javier Milei: strategy, roadmap for the US

    (1:13:54) Jason's bet on Athena, how AI will change company building

    (1:22:21) Google launches AI summaries in search

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://www.pokernews.com/news/2024/05/phil-hellmuth-60th-birthday-bash-las-vegas-45984.htm

    https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1790130703721521305

    https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1790089513387143469

    https://crfm.stanford.edu/helm/mmlu/v1.3.0/#

    https://www.businessinsider.com/inflection-implosion-chatgpt-stall-ai-consumer-chatbot-problem-2024-3

    https://www.opencompute.org

    https://glue.ai

    https://ragie.ai

    https://ohalo.com

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/07/cnbc-exclusive-cnbc-transcript-billionaire-investor-stanley-druckenmiller-speaks-with-cnbcs-squawk-box-today.html

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2024/03/23/summers-inflation-reached-18-in-2022-using-the-governments-previous-formula

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1378034932006592512

    https://www.athenawow.com/jcal

    https://calacanis.substack.com/p/startup-productivity-in-the-age-of

    https://blog.google/products/search/generative-ai-google-search-may-2024

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEzRZ35urlk

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG

    https://startuptalky.com/apple-failed-products

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    ep122-2 啟示錄六1~17 第2,3印 紅馬,黑馬來了 galigongbible

    ep122-2 啟示錄六1~17 第2,3印 紅馬,黑馬來了 galigongbible
    🔳galigongbible最新單輯於台灣時間每週四下午6點整發佈 🔳節目奉獻連結 Donate by SoundOn || https://pay.soundon.fm/podcasts/b5160802-3786-4511-821f-01a05221c602 🔳社群平台 Line社群---https://reurl.cc/3Ng69O FaceBook---https://reurl.cc/8yd6VR Telegram--- https://t.me/galigongbible 🔳播送平台 MixerBox || https://www.mixerbox.com/podcast/1384900 Apple || https://reurl.cc/0OnVeo Google || https://reurl.cc/Xk9kM0 Spotify || https://reurl.cc/Xk3713 SoundOn || https://reurl.cc/OqLg1D Youtube || https://reurl.cc/oQMGlj 🔳前情提要 啟示錄四~五章,如同全國各地,文武百官到紫禁城聽皇上+慈禧公佈重大消息。 舊約六翼天使撒旦和米迦勒長時間在地上,四活物也升格為六翼天使 父(=霝上帝)右手拿著啟示錄交給羊(=道上帝)執行 🔳撒迦利亞當時應在以色列 ✅亞六1~8 (撒迦利亞=)我又舉目觀看,看見有四輛戰車從兩座銅山中間出來 第一輛戰車套著紅馬,第二輛套著黑馬, 第三輛套著白馬,第四輛套著有斑點的馬;這些馬都很雄壯。 於是我問那與我說話的天使:「我主啊,這些是什麼意思?」 天使回答我:「這些是天的四風(或譯:霝),是從侍立在"全地之主"面前出來的。」 套著黑馬的車出來,往北方之地去; 套著白馬的車出來,跟在它們後面(或譯:「往西方去」); 套著有斑點的馬的車出來,往南方之地去。(❓紅馬去哪兒?) 這些雄壯的馬出來,切望在"全地走遍各處”; 天使說:「你們去吧,只管在全地走遍各處。」它們就在「全地」走遍各處。 他又呼喚我,對我說:「你看,那些出來往北方之地去的,已經在北方之地使我心霝的忿怒平息下來。」 👉由上帝面前出來的4馬=4風=4霝,對全地帶來懲罰災害 👉走到哪裡,上帝就對那裡忿怒平息(=氣消一點)。 🔳啟示錄四~五章 👉四活物:獅,牛,人,鷹 ❓約翰當時在拔摩島呢?還是在啟四~五天上呢? 🔳強權小白來了 第六章 01 我看見,當羔羊揭開七印中一個印的時候, (約翰=)我就聽見"四活物"中一個活物聲音如雷, 說:「你來!」 02 (約翰=)我觀看, 看哪!有一匹白馬(+來了=小白來了), 那騎在它上面的(+騎士),拿著弓, 並有冠冕賜給他(=騎士)。 (騎士=)他得勝著出來,為要得勝利(=勝了又勝)。 👉弓:遠程打擊武器 👉冠冕:勝利,且要勝了又勝 ❓俄羅斯這個大壞蛋,打了烏克蘭,若是這風往北,白馬變白熊,俄羅斯? 想想,俄有贏到底嗎?1991/12/25 戈巴契夫辭職,隔天宣佈通過決議,維持69年的蘇聯解體成為15個獨立國家,白熊曾輸給小白。 ❓按✅亞六,若白馬(小白)不是往北,而是往西,在以色列,拔摩島西方,有何強權具有遠程打擊,勝了又勝? 希臘?義大利?法國?西班牙?葡萄牙?英國?美國?基本上,講了美國,應該就容不下其他國家;美國在1914年開始的ww1已成為歐洲大陸最好的後勤,借武器,借裝備,借人,借錢,而借了要不要還呢?要!1918年11月11日,在德軍向法國求和時ww1結束,戰後,各國於巴黎凡爾賽和約簽定時,有人發現戰敗國沒辦法支付巨大賠款,和約條件將造成戰敗國在短期內再次發動戰爭;為何會簽定不平等的條約呢?若引發戰爭能賺一次錢,就會想再引發戰爭賺第二次錢。(只要引發人不是我,我就不是壞人,了解?) 果不其然,約19年後,1937年ww2爆發,美國繼續成為歐洲大陸各國後勤,借東借西,要五毛給一塊,在1945年 ww2結束後,美國成為世界上最大債權國,不論戰勝或戰敗的歐洲國家都要還錢給美國,1948年開始,美國成為世界警察,管理世界制序,可以wikipedia查詢"美國軍事行動時間線”,只需要看1945至今天,你就可以知道美國有多忙了;並且你會發現,戰爭都是發生在別人家;包含剛才說的,美國深知在ww2戰後蘇聯是頭號敵人,在1960年代末期,冷戰時期聯中制蘇成為美國的重點,你就能想想,為何1970年代台美要斷交?就是美國為了和中國建交啊!直到1991/12/26 蘇聯終於解體,美國扳倒蘇聯。白馬並非北極熊,讓大家知道一下。 而白馬除了”美軍”之外,”美元”,另一個超限戰武器,若想了解全球金融演進史細節的朋友,推荐你看宋鴻兵”貨幣戰爭”1~4輯,很大本,或是有一本短一點的王伯達”美元圈套”,都有幫助。 今天並非講金融史,只能簡短截說,美國由ww2後最大債權國(人人要還他錢),成為最大債務國(他要還大家錢),1971年8月尼克森政府決定美元與黃金脫勾,失去擔保品黃金 的美元,使美元成為一張向世界開出的”信用借據",但大家都拿美國沒辦法耶,為何?因為世界上所有的原物料,金銀銅鐵鍚鉛鋁,石油黃豆小麥玉米,通通都和美元綁在一起。 按上輯所說,1947年死海昆蘭古卷出土,1948年老底嘉教會時期始,以色列復國,世界被殖民的各國家,乘ep119輯非拉鐵非-大航海時期的葡,西,英,荷,法,德因ww2焦頭爛額之際,在1945-1955年之間紛紛以民主自由為理由宣布脫離殖民,國家獨立,而美國進入ep120老底嘉-民主時期,自然成為民主國家頭號國家,在全世界的檯面上及檯面下推展民主,只要你不聽話,推行共產主義,美國就會透過美軍或政變把”民主”快遞到你家;能說美國不像手拿大弓,具有遠距攻擊能力的白馬嗎?我覺得很難。 推理:1990-1991波灣戰爭,真的是為中東的科威特復國嗎?想一想 推理:2022年俄烏戰爭最終結果會如何?烏克蘭會敗嗎?幫助烏克蘭的國家是為了民主正義,還是另有目的呢?不論俄羅斯是否想和談,而停戰後,最得利的國家"們"是誰?想一想 🔳帶著戰爭的小紅來了 03 當(羔羊=)他揭開第二印的時候, (約翰=)我聽見第二個活物說:「你來。」 04 且另外一匹火紅馬出來 (小紅來了), 地上的平安被給騎在(紅馬=)它上面的(=騎士)拿走 並且,有一把大劍(大短刀/匕首)賜給他(=騎士)。 使得(+地上的)他們會彼此殺害。 👉大:大範圍 👉劍:短刀,匕首。剌殺?戰爭? ❓按✅亞六 所言,黑馬往北,斑馬往南,若白馬往西,紅馬在東邊嗎? 👉以拔摩島,以色列區域為中心,東邊有中東(敘利亞,伊朗,伊拉克,阿富汗,中國,韓國,日本,台灣?) ❓能引起戰爭,是誰呢? 👉每匹馬都是一條影響力的線,例如白馬的金融影響力:由德國法蘭克福18-19世紀發跡的猶太金融家族-羅斯柴爾德,他們由德國,移動到英國,再移動到美國,如同金融控制權由歐洲流向美國。 剛才在白馬提到,1991/12/26蘇聯瓦解,聯中制蘇的任務也到一段落,然而,單一透過中國就能把強大的蘇聯瓦解嗎?當然不是,美國在1960~1980年代聯中制蘇,除了中國之外,還有中東國家,美國同時也提供伊拉克,伊朗,阿富汗武器,金援及訓練,對抗蘇聯;然而由1992年起,美國達到分解蘇聯目的,中東國家突然發現奶媽斷奶了,近30年的武器,金援就這樣斷了,自覺被利用達到目的被丟到一旁的中東國家有何感覺?當然生氣,過河拆橋嗎?中東國家能怎麼辦呢?在中東組織反過來壯大自己後,2001/09/11 911襲擊事件,成為中東國家報復美國的開端,而美國接著持續20年的中東反恐任務。 回到原點,約翰看著紅馬應往哪兒去呢?拔摩島或以色列東方有哪些勢力呢?你可以想一想。 以我主觀的論點,不敢對你說自己有多客觀,啟示錄中7信,7印,7號,7碗,如同連環計,一環接一環,接著繼續看黑馬。 🔳帶著通膨和糧食問題的小黑來了 05 當(羔羊=)他揭開第三印的時候, (約翰=)我聽見第三個活物說:「你來!」 (約翰=)我就觀看, 看哪!有一匹黑馬;(小黑來了) 那騎在它上面的(+騎士) 在他的手裡拿著天平。 06 (約翰=)我聽見如同有聲音在四活物中間說: 「一斗小麥一得拿利(=銀幣/一天工資), 三斗大麥一得拿利,油和酒不可糟蹋。」 👉天平:交易,商業行為 👉一斗:約一升;古時交易穀物訂制量器,方盒分半斤1斤或2斤 👉得拿利:羅馬幣別;1得拿利=1銀幣=一天工資 👉油/酒:農作物多產時所生的產物 ex 花生,小麥,人吃飽後才有的農作物加工品 綜合 天平,一斗,得拿利,油/酒,可知黑馬引發糧食交易問題,糧食最後要升到什麼程度呢?一天工資換一斗,你如果有興趣,可以換算一下,用一天工資買一升小麥,物價上升多少倍。👉這場災難就是糧食稀缺及漲價的問題 而這事件是怎麼開始呢?白馬時期美國在1971年脫離金本位後,每一張美元都成為向世界借款的信用借條,剛開始30年美國都很節制,直到2005-2006年美國本土引發房地美及房利美次貸風暴,美國為了自救 開啟印鈔,通過2008年雷曼兄弟 金融海嘯,直到2012年貨幣量化寬鬆結束,經過幾年貨幣緊縮,直到2019 covid 新冠病毒,美國為了自救,再次量化寬鬆;由2006到今天,你有沒有發現物價一直漲呢?或者應該反過來說,是貨幣價值不斷貶值,使我們看起來物價不斷上升。 若你有興趣,可以查一查烏克蘭對世界農產品出口所佔的比例,再加上各國「提供」武器給烏克蘭;你覺得俄烏戰爭打一年,歐美國家「提供」的槍支,飛彈,坦克,裝甲車都不用還嗎?這套遊戲像不像ww2時,美國不斷「提供」武器給歐洲各國?一模一樣的套路,只是對像不同而已。 不要覺得俄羅斯就是大壞蛋,你不去招惹人家,人家不會拿坦克大砲打你的;也要想想為何烏克蘭敢在俄羅斯面前這麼作?當然有歐美各國撐腰,才會這麼大膽。然而烏克蘭的結果為何?只能說被歐美各國給「殖民」了。因為烏克蘭以農產為主,一台飛機要多少小麥才換的完?烏克蘭自然還不出錢,若要能還錢,烏克蘭只能把農產品不斷漲價,最後結果,雖然農作物在烏克蘭生長,但要怎麼賣出去,是身後殖民主說的算。 反觀台灣,有人說今天的烏克蘭,明天的台灣,也可以這麼說,別認為美國說不怕怕,往前衝,覺得中國沒什麼好擔心,台灣人民就衝了;這事如同三國諸葛孔明唱空城記,司馬懿看了看,想了想:若今天我把孔明滅了,朝廷自然認為不需再養兵,自身失法利用價值,朝廷不用多久就會把司馬懿殺了,於是司馬懿將計就計,退兵;有時歷史可以成為借鏡,也難怪傳道書說,日光之下並無新事。 回到原點,約翰在拔摩島看到黑馬往北方走,拔摩島和以色列的北方有東歐,烏克蘭,俄羅斯,透過俄烏戰爭可知,影響世界的黑馬風暴正在展開。 以目前的推論,世界正走到黑馬,在黑馬之前講的如履薄冰,因為曾經發生的事不能亂講,但由黑馬之後,通通沒發生過,我想就算是耶穌也不攔住我了,哈哈哈,開玩笑的,還是會小心的講,必竟啟示錄不能亂講。 🔳帶著死亡的小灰來了 07 而當(羔羊=)他揭開第四印的時候, (約翰=)我聽見第四個活物的聲音說:「你來!」 08 然後(約翰=)我觀看, 看哪!一匹灰綠色的馬,坐在(灰綠有斑點馬=)它上面的(+騎士), 陰間(=死者之境)隨著他,(騎士=)他名字為死亡, 並且,權力賜給”他們” (4匹馬複合性災害?) 藉著刀劍、饑荒、死亡(=瘟疫),並且用地的野獸。 殺害在地上四分之一的人 👉目前世界約80億人,1/4的人數大約20億人消失;目前世界covid病例數近7億,死亡人數686萬,其他還有黑數,乘2倍,也在1400萬以內,所以covid不是灰馬,請放心。 👉前面的經文可知,白馬=貨幣與軍事強權,紅馬=戰爭,黑馬=糧食饑荒,及野獸一起造成複合性災害; 👉當中 地的"野獸"以希臘文對照中文解釋,可能是: 1,動物攻擊人類 2,很壞的人 3,人腦部病變 病毒入侵腦部,你會不會想到僵屍病毒?電影看多了,然而,若是含有hiv基因的covid繼續以呼吸道傳染方式,在充滿人類的城市培養皿繼續變異,你覺得未來有沒有機會呢?沒有要嚇你,只是說其可能性。 以中國為例,中國歷代起義革命都是人民吃不飽,若時間進入黑馬之後,在黑馬造成世界糧食不均,為了抗爭當權派,找個理由,發起戰爭,發生死亡,重新洗牌,是一種解方 。 即然紅馬和灰馬都引來戰爭,聖經中有沒有預言核戰呢?有! ✅亞五:全章=核飛彈,位置在示拿地,也就是巴比倫,今天位處兩河流域一帶 何時發射?不確定,紅馬沒發生,接著看看灰馬時期會不會按下按鈕吧! 🔳基督徒的大患難 09 當(羔羊=)他打開第五印的時候, (約翰=)我看見在祭壇底下, (是)那些因上帝的”道" (話?基督?) 和因他們所擁有的”見證", 被殺的人的霝魂 👉繼續傳福音的人 10 (+他們)大聲喊著說: 「聖潔真實的主啊,(+你)要等到幾時呢? (+難道)你不為我們 因地上的居民 所流的血 伸冤審判嗎? 11 於是有”白衣"被賜給他們每個人; 又有(聲音?使者?)對他們說, 他們要仍然安息片時(=片刻), 直到他們的僕人 同伴 和他們的弟兄被成全了, 就是那些也如同他們一樣即將被殺的(+的人全被殺了)。 ❓為何為福音見證的人都在祭壇下? ✅利九:殺牛羊的「血」,最終都在祭壇下 👉為福音見證的人都是祭壇上的祭物 ❓什麼是白衣資格? Ep118 ✅啟三:撒狄時期誰穿白衣?是否記得波西米亞的約翰.胡司?英國把聖經由原文翻譯成英文的丁道爾?是這些捍衛福音的人穿白衣。 Ep120 ✅啟三:老底嘉時期,基督:沒有白衣=無人捍衛福音 求神問卜: ✅啟二:士每拿時期異教徒為何要血祭基督徒? 別迦摩時期為何羅馬會以基督教為國教? ad98-117 圖拉真皇帝 為羅馬帝國頂盛時期,到ad300-400當執政者無法掌控國內各種問題時,自然就會求神問卜,ad385 狄奧多西諭令把基督教以外排除,自然見怪不怪 同樣,當白紅黑灰馬四風齊發,各國政府束手無策時,基督徒求神問卜自然會發生;以下只是猜測,當ai(大數據)告訴告大家,基督教/其他信仰是個迷信時,基督徒會被殺嗎? ❓要殺多少人才足夠? ✅羅十一:保羅的奧秘:外族人數全滿後,以色列家才會得救。 👉外族人多少人,只有天知道!反之,若外族人數沒滿,以色列家只會處在迷惑中 以色列不到最後不會得救,因為 ✅賽六:以賽亞封印,新約6作者提了8次,馬可只是彼得的代筆,可以合併;順便一提,新約只有8個作者,只有兩個作者沒提以賽亞封印,希伯來書+雅各書。 ✅何六:以色列要被擊打2天,第三天要再被醫治👉2天=2千年,由耶穌升天到今天,也差不多已2千年 ❓被殺的白衣人後來去哪兒? ✅啟七9~17:大患難領白袍的人在寶座前 🔳火山爆發的大地震 12 然後(約翰=)我看見 當(羔羊=)他揭開第六印的時候,發生「大地震」 且太陽成為好像黑色毛麻布(=麻衣)、滿月成為如同血(=顏色:紅), 13 天空的星辰墜落於地, 如同無花果樹被大風搖動丟下它未熟的果子一樣。 ❓是核彈嗎?(某馬來西亞牧師曾說過) 14 天就分開,好像書卷被捲起來; 每座山嶺海島都被挪移離開他們的地方。 15 地上的君王、大臣、將軍、 富人、有大能者,和一切為奴的、自主的, 都藏他們”自己"在洞穴和山的巖石裡 16 且(君王大臣為奴自主)他們對山和岩石說: 「你們要倒在(=撐在)我們上面 要隱藏我們 從坐寶座上者的臉 及 從羔羊的憤怒, 👉又是兩位,怎沒談到聖霝? 17 因為(寶座上+羔羊=)他們忿怒的大日到了, 而誰能站得住呢?」 「大地震」 👉每個印都有一個主角,第六印的主角是「大地震」;科普一下,每1級地震能量差10倍,但每2級地震能量差100倍,所以差3級能量差1000倍;6級以下地震在世界上已很常見,但6~7級或7級以上地震,就會上國際新聞。 1923/9/1 芮氏8.1級 關東大地震,約15萬人喪生。 1999/9/21 台灣 芮氏7.3級 約2400喪生, 2023/2/6 土耳其 芮氏7.8級 約4萬人喪生,還在增加中, 因敘利亞邊境政治戰爭因素,還有很多黑數無法統計,這次強震使土耳其國土移動 3m; 啟示錄第六印所形容的地震,連山和島都會移動(移動3m是小case),因為目前已有很多人正在預備這事,上至高官,下至平民,都為自己建造,於是他們對山和石頭說「倒在我們身上吧」,其實不是「壓死我們吧」,這話應校正為「撐在我們身上吧」成為保護,以躲避寶座上的及羔羊2位的怒氣。(看!聖霝又不見了!) 當大地震時,板塊位移伴隨大量火山噴發 (台灣"剛好"在太平洋火環帶上!),大量火山灰漸漸將天空如同書卷一樣遮蔽很長一段時間,因為還半透光,白天太陽看起來像黑毛布,夜裡的月亮因穿透變減低泛紅,夜裡星星光線較弱已完全看不到,而漫天的火山灰較重的顆粒由天空落下,如同大風吹過無花果樹,讓未熟的果子掉落地面。 所以,未熟的星星落在地上,不該是核彈。 🔳重點整理 一印:1948 ww2後成為世界最大債權國,白馬浮出檯面 二印:1991 白馬在蘇聯解體後種下紅馬,2001 911事件浮出檯面 三印:2006 白馬為自救種下黑馬,自2008後物價再沒回頭路,糧食分配不均愈趨嚴重 四印:2019 白馬種下灰馬,目前正在全球擴散,變種,直到白紅黑灰四風再次匯集,死亡到來 五印:因世界失控,基督徒求神問卜被打為邪教,發生如同士每拿時期大患難,殺到祭壇上的外族人數全滿,他們的霝魂都領了白袍,站立在上帝寶座前。 六印:大地震引發大規模火山爆發,一望無際漫天火山灰,為自己預備藏身洞穴的人能躲過寶座的及羔羊的怒氣,但,卻不是最好的選擇。 如果你對 白紅黑灰馬,大患難,大地震 有何想法或看法,歡迎由 apple podcast/line群/fb 留言給我,盡力回覆你們喔! 🔳如果你覺得喜歡這個節目,請在apple podcast給予5星好評 🔳這輯對你有幫助,請分享給一個可能需要的朋友! 🔳想繼續聽到優質節目,節目需要你的禱告,轉發,與奉獻,非常感謝! 🔳galigongbible最新單輯於台灣時間每週四下午6點整發佈

    Rose Gottemoeller on the Future of Arms Control

    Rose Gottemoeller on the Future of Arms Control

    Russian state TV aired a chilling propaganda video showing nuclear destruction in the United Kingdom this week, echoing bluster from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on nuclear escalation over Ukraine. Former US Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Rose Gottemoeller, who negotiated the New START treaty with Russia, joins Deep Dish to explain how Russia’s actions have altered conversations on arms control and why it’s still critical for the United States and Russia to work together to prevent nuclear war.   

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    EPISODE 279 ISRAEL... THE CATALYST TRIGGERING WORLD WAR THREE? WILL CHINA TAIWAN RUSSIA IRAN TURKEY SYRIA SAUDI ARABIA EUROPE AND THE USA? WILL THE USA GET SUCKED IN TO WW3?

    EPISODE 279 ISRAEL... THE CATALYST TRIGGERING WORLD WAR THREE? WILL CHINA TAIWAN RUSSIA IRAN TURKEY SYRIA SAUDI ARABIA EUROPE AND THE USA? WILL THE USA  GET SUCKED IN TO WW3?

    In this 'EPISODE 279 ISRAEL... THE CATALYST TRIGGERING WORLD WAR THREE? WILL CHINA TAIWAN RUSSIA IRAN TURKEY SYRIA SAUDI ARABIA EUROPE AND THE USA BE INVOLVED? WILL THE USA  GET SUCKED IN TO WW3?' Author and host Elbert Hardy of itellwhy.com, shows how the world views this and contrasts how the Bible puts it in both the Old Testament and the New Testament.

    Go to itellwhy.com to read Elbert's books free of charge, no Ads and no requests for money or Email addresses. You can watch faith building YouTube Links to Videos and the listen to Elbert's Life of Christ Audio Book in 30 minute Episodes arranged and read by the author straight from the Bible, but rearranged in logical harmony of the Gospels, Revelation and other scriptures. All FREE of charge in the public interest.