The LatinNews Podcast

The combination of a weak state and strong criminal forces has led to a near-doubling of homicides each year in Ecuador since 2020 and the nation's murder rate for 2023 was around 40 per 100,000 people, making it the highest in Ecuador's history and therefore one of the most violent in Latin America. 

In this episode of The LatinNews Podcast, we ask Ivan Briscoe, Program Director for Latin America and the Caribbean at Crisis Group and Glaeldys Gonzalez Calanche, a Fellow at Crisis Group, are President Noboa's new measures working for Ecuador? 

We cover details leading up to the crisis in Ecuador, the main players behind the violence, President Noboa's actions and the issue of forthcoming presidential elections. 

On The LatinNews Podcast this week, we ask Dr Jacqueline Jimenez Polanco, Associate Professor of Sociology at the Bronx Community College of the City University of New York, to what can we attribute the success of the anti-corruption and anti-impunity politics in the Dominican Republic? 

With elections on the horizon for May 2024, will the victor continue in the same vein of combating official corruption, addressing tensions with Haiti and protecting the country's all-important tourism revenue? We explore these topics and the historical background to current politics in the Dominican Republic. 

Dr Jimenez Polanco is the author of numerous books and articles including, "Dominican Politics in the 21st Century: Continuity and Change," "Divagaciones II, An Anthology by Dominican Lesbian, Bisexual and Queer Women," and the forthcoming, "Dominican American Politics: Immigrants, Activists and Politicians." 

On The LatinNews Podcast this week, we speak to Martin Weinstein, Emeritus Professor of Political Science at William Paterson University in New Jersey and author of dozens of books on Uruguay, his opinions on the upcoming presidential elections in Uruguay in October 2024. 

Uruguay is unlikely to lose its reputation as the "Switzerland of Latin America," however there are challenges ahead for the successful candidate in the elections, be they from the leftist Frente Amplio or right-of-centre Partido Nacional. These include the issues of security and narco-trafficking, continued tensions with Mercosur and an urgent need to reform the primary and secondary education systems. 

Tune in for this far-reaching conversation on the LatinNews podcast. 

On this episode of The LatinNews Podcast, we ask Rosemary Joyce, Distinguished Professor of Anthropology at the University of California, Berkeley, how governable is Honduras considering the challenges facing the country and President Xiomara Castro? 

In reality, Hondurans can point to the 2009 coup against President Zelaya (current President Xiomara Castro's husband) as a pivotal moment of seismic proportions and consequences in Honduras' political landscape. After that moment, the country endured 12 years or three presidential terms of mismanagement under President Porfirio Lobo (now charged by the US with having taken bribes from narco-trafficking organizations) and President Juan Orlando Hernández, who has been extradited to the US on corruption charges. 

How can President Castro govern a country and address the three main issues affecting the Central American nation? 1. Corruption, 2. Improving the Economy, 3. Safety and Security. We look at these issues and address the current state of Honduras. 

On the first LatinNews podcast episode for 2024, we welcome back Jon Farmer, Editor in Chief of Latin News to provide us with an in-depth look at Argentina's President Javier Milei, his election, his domestic policies, plans for the troubled economy, foreign policies and the relationship with the IMF. 

Milei was voted in as an indictment of the political class in Argentina, but can he pull off the economic miracle required to turn the country around, for how long can the people survive his austerity measures and finally is there a possibility that he may not see out his term? 

On the final episode of The LatinNews Podcast for 2023, we ask Ronald Alfaro-Redondo, a researcher in Political Science at the University of Costa Rica and at the State of the Nation Program, how Costa Rican President Rodrigo Chaves can build on popular discontent with the country's long-established political elites? 

Alfaro-Redondo leads us through a complex weave of issues facing President Chaves, not least regarding the political class in Costa Rica but also, the rise of populism in the region, his approval ratings, press attacks, the future of the welfare state and the presence of drugs gangs in Costa Rica affecting the nation's security. 

The illicit drug business continues to be profitable, violent and deeply embedded in the economies and political systems in Latin America and so, on the LatinNews podcast this week, we discuss the eight main headlines as explained in a new report written by Andrew Thompson, a journalist and political risk analyst covering the region. 

Thompson describes new factors in the drugs trade, including the evolution of the opioids market in the United States, the Chinese and Mexican role in the fentanyl supply chain, potential signs of weakness in the Colombian cocaine market, the importance of the triple frontier region between Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay and the crisis in the region's prison systems. 

The post-war era of growth has been replaced by a much more uncertain, nationalistic and dangerous world and nowhere is this more evident when it comes to the current trend of repositioning in the global supply chain network which therefore directly affects Panama and the Panama Canal. 

On The LatinNews Podcast this week, we ask Andrew Thomas PhD, Professor of International Business at the College of Business at the University of Akron and author of "The Canal of Panama and Globalization: Growth and Challenges in the 21st Century," can Panama effectively respond to issues such as climate change and extended drought, supply chain security, population growth and global events such as the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East?

On The LatinNews Podcast this week, we look at the regime of President Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua and discuss his likely successor and how the country arrived at this aggravated stage of repression. 

Dr Manuel Orozco, a Nicaraguan political scientist at the Inter American Dialogue, joins us to discuss how the regime has further dismantled democratic institutions and pursued a policy of systemic repression in behaviour akin to that of a "Tropical Taliban." 

In recent years more than 12 per cent of Nicaragua's population has left the country, nine out of ten citizens are in opposition to the regime, yet the culture of fear pervades. We ask for how long Ortega can hold on to power, how he manages to do so and who is the likely successor? 

Weaponizing social media with his own brand of populist authoritarianism, promoting cryptocurrency and imprisoning 70 thousand of his countrymen in order to pacify El Salvador's gang warfare, we ask, who is the real Nayib Bukele? 

Manuel Melendez-Sanchez, a PhD candidate in political science at Harvard University, joins us on the LatinNews podcast to discuss, not only Bukele's security policy - admired by some and abhorred by others - , but also his economic policy and concentration of power in El Salvador. 

Is El Salvador really the safest country in Latin America as President Bukele often claims?

On The LatinNews Podcast this week, we look at what could go wrong with the administration of Guyana's oil wealth and whether such a tremendous windfall will be used to transform the economic and political landscape in the country. 

Incredibly, Guyana is set to quadruple its GDP by 2025, the same year as the next elections, so will the estimated 40 per cent of the population that lives in poverty see anything of this income? 

Anand Persaud, the Editor in Chief of the Starbroek News in Georgetown, Guyana discusses the possibilities, from a concentration of political power, corruption, the Dutch disease and ethnic polarization and how all of these issues come into play.

Debates on spiraling violence and the future of extractive industries dominate Ecuador's elections.

On The LatinNews Podcast this week, we ask Carmen Martínez Novo, Professor at the University of Florida's Center for Latin American Studies: where do Ecuador's presidential candidates stand on the issue of extractive industries and national security? 

Bringing an expertise in indigenous rights and politics in Ecuador, Martínez Novo discusses the current spiral of violence in this electoral cycle in the country, the powerful and influential indigenous role in elections and the priorities of both presidential hopefuls, Luisa González and Daniel Noboa. 

Will the "correista" candidate González pursue an aggressive pro-extractives policy, or will the outwardly business-minded Noboa combine a pro-extractives policy with pragmatic environmentalism, and how will either address Ecuador's rapidly deteriorating security situation?

One thing is winning a presidential election and another is actually governing. President Gustavo Petro's approval ratings continue to fall, his coalition no longer has a majority, there are local elections ahead in Colombia in October and things do not look good. 

This week on The LatinNews Podcast, we ask Jenny Pearce, Research Professor at the Latin America and Caribbean Centre at the London School of Economics, how can President Petro face up to the barrage of challenges hurled at him by a strengthening opposition and at the same time commit to his "government of change" in the coming three years of his presidency?

Show Notes:

• Gustavo Petro’s background

• Fighting drug-related criminal gangs

• Corruption allegations

• Where to from here for Colombia?

Jenny Pearce is a political scientist who specialises in Latin America. She works with anthropological and participatory research methodologies on social change, violence, security, power and participation in the region and beyond. She considers herself a peace scholar, committed to theoretical development of the field of peace, power and violence as well as empirical study.

She has conducted fieldwork since the 1970s in Uruguay, El Salvador, Guatemala, Colombia, Mexico, Chile, Brazil, and Venezuela. Professor Pearce has also developed a body of work around participation and exclusion in the global North, bringing learning from Latin America (South North learning) to the realities of urban conflict and tensions in the de-industrialised north of England.

On Episode 10 of The LatinNews Podcast, we ask Jo-Marie Burt, professor of political science and Latin American studies at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University about Guatemala's presidential elections. 

Guatemalans will vote on 20 August in the second round of the presidential elections in which establishment candidate Sandra Torres is pitted against outsider Bernardo Arevalo. We discuss the complex tangle of Guatemala's political landscape, the symbolic significance of Arevalo's surprise success in the first round and how the corporate authoritarian elites might swing the elections to their favoured candidate. 

Show Notes:

• Pact of the Corrupt

• Corporate Authoritarian System

• Backgrounds of Bernardo Arevalo & Sandra Torres

• Guatamalan illicit trade

Jo-Marie Burt is associate professor of political science and Latin American studies at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. At Mason, she has served as director of Latin American studies, co-director of the Center for Global Studies, and associate chair for undergraduate studies. She is an affiliate faculty in global affairs, Latin American studies, conflict analysis and resolution, and women and gender studies. Burt is also a senior fellow at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), a leading human rights research and advocacy organization.

On The LatinNews Podcast this week, we ask Renata Segura, Deputy Director for Latin America and the Caribbean at the International Crisis Group and Diego Da Rín, Haiti expert at International Crisis Group, what is going on in Haiti?

The prolongation of a series of corrupt governments has created an untenable situation consisting of three crises, economic, security and humanitarian. 

How can the cycle be broken to provide for the people of Haiti?

Show Notes:

• The current situation in Haiti?

• The Haitian humanitarian crisis

• Assassination of President Jovenel Moïse

• Criminal militant groups

Renata Segura started her career as a reporter on Colombian TV and a nationally-distributed magazine, before working at the Jesuit-led NGO CINEP in Bogotá. She got her Ph.D. in political science from the New School for Social Research in New York in 2007. Between 2002 and 2019, Renata worked at the Conflict Prevention and Peace Forum, a program of the Social Science Research Council.

Diego Da Rin is a social science researcher, journalist and consultant on Latin America and Caribbean for the International Crisis Group.

On Episode 8 of The LatinNews Podcast we ask Ana Milagros Parra, political scientist and consultant based in Caracas, for her insights from on the ground in Venezuela where doubts abound about whether there will be primary elections in the short term in 2023 and how President Nicolás Maduro’s government is manipulating the political landscape to ensure total victory in 2024. 

Tune in for this and reflections on the mass migration from the country and the deep permeation of illegal armed groups from Colombia into illegal mining in Venezuela.

Show Notes:

• Upcoming elections

• Former interim president Juan Guaidó

• Illegal mining in Venezuela

• The ELN and illegal military groups

Ana Milagros Parra is a Venezuelan political scientist. She has worked both as a researcher and interviewer in human rights organizations, later specializing in political risk analysis. Ana Milagros obtained her degree in political science at Rafael Urdaneta University and has been head of political analysis in the strategic risk analysis department at IURISCORP, a corporate legal consulting firm. She has been quoted in media such as El Mundo, elDiario.es, El Pitazo, Runrunes, Caraota Digital, Newsy, and Diario de Cuba, among others.

On November 5, 2019 she headed the conference "International Sanctions: Assertive Recommendations to the Entrepreneur's Environment", held at Impact Hub Caracas, together with Rafael Álvarez Loscher. On January 24, 2020 she led the conference "2020: The year of evolution of business models in hostile scenarios" at the offices of IURISCORP, again with Loscher.

On Episode 7 of The LatinNews Podcast, we ask Diego Von Vacano, Professor of Political Science at Texas A&M University: "How can Bolivia industrialize its Lithium reserves?" Can Bolivia position itself as the world leader for lithium extraction with a coherent and transparent policy and where do China, Russia and the USA fit into this puzzle? President Luis Arce would like to boost development in Bolivia - reaching out to the IDB, World Bank and others - but a political paranoia brought on by strong criticism from the outspoken former president Evo Morales is unsettling the political landscape. Tune in for this and more.

Show Notes: 

• How is the law limiting development?

• Will Evo Morales run for election in 2025?

• US/Bolivia Relations

• Foreign investment in Bolivia

Dr. Diego von Vacano is the author of The Color of Citizenship: Race, Modernity and Latin American/Hispanic Political Thought (Oxford University Press, 2012) and The Art of Power: Machiavelli, Nietzsche and the Making of Aesthetic Political Theory (Lexington Books, 2006). He is Associate Professor of Political Science at Texas A&M University. He has been a Visiting Professor and Presidential Fellow at Yale University.

He received his doctorate in Politics from Princeton University in 2003, where he played for Princeton United FC. He received his master’s degree in public policy from Harvard University. He also studied in the College of Social Studies at Wesleyan University.

On Episode 6 of The LatinNews Podcast, Pamela K Starr, Professor of International Relations at USC, Los Angeles, joins us to discuss President Lopez Obrador's legacy in Mexico. We look at the defining features of his tenure, the increase in the role of the military, resource nationalism, political polarization, threats to journalists and an assault on autonomous institutions such as the electoral authority. Additionally, we discuss Lopez Obrador's chosen successor for the 2024 elections: Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo. 

Show Notes:

• The Morena Party

• Lopez Obrador’s most likely successor

• Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)

• The Fourth Transformation

Pamela Starr is a professor of the practice of international relations and public diplomacy, a senior advisor at Monarch Global Strategies, and a global fellow at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

Prior to USC, Starr was the senior analyst responsible for Mexico at the Eurasia Group, one of the world's leading global political risk advisory and consulting firms, and a professor at the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM) in Mexico City.

Starr has briefed American and Mexican officials on the bilateral relationship, including former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, former Mexican Foreign Minister Jose Antonio Meade, as well as ambassadors, diplomats, intelligence officials, legislators, and staffers from both countries. She has testified before the U.S. Congress and is an active speaker and author.

Starr has been quoted in over 50 newspapers, news magazines, and wire services in the United States, Mexico, Canada, Europe, and Asia including The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, and the Financial Times. She has opinion articles in over a dozen outlets.

Described as "hapless and stolid but hardworking" by Dr Emily Morris, President Diaz-Canel was re-elected to his post in April 2023 as life for ordinary Cubans remains increasingly difficult. On this episode of The LatinNews Podcast, Dr Morris discusses the political and economic effects of the nation's dual currency system and its end, if there are any possibilities of meaningful political reform there on the horizon and finally, the overwhelming sense of despair being felt by the Cuban population.

Show Notes:

• What is the dual-currency system?

• Impact of the dual-currency on the economy

• 2021 Cuban Protests

• Cuban foreign policy

Dr Emily Morris is a Research Fellow at University College London’s Institute of the Americas (UCLIA). For 13 years she worked for the Economist Intelligence Unit, where she was a Senior Editor/Economist covering the economies of Latin America, and in 2011 she completed her doctoral thesis on Cuban economic policy and outcomes since 1990. As well as lecturing Masters level students, she is now doing consultancy work on Cuban and Latin American economics.

Dr Morris's current research includes studies of Cuban macroeconomic management and performance, climate change mitigation and transport strategies, and emerging currents in Latin American Political Economy. She is lead researcher for a collaboration project between UCL and the Cuban ministry of transport, helping to formulate an environmentally, economically and socially sustainable transport strategy for the city of Havana.

Dr Morris lectures in the Political Economy of Development in Latin America, Latin American Economics, and Economic and Social Transformation in Cuba.

Ten years ago she wrote an article for LatinNews, covering Cuba's dual-currency system. On the latest episode of The LatinNews Podcast she joins Richard McColl to discuss current developments in Cuba.

Andrew Nickson, Honourary Reader in Public Management and Latin American Studies at the University of Birmingham and expert in Paraguay's politics joins The LatinNews Podcast  on Episode 4 to provide an overview of the recent elections and some of the serious dilemmas facing the Colorado Party's president-elect Santiago Peña. 

On the home-front, can Peña combat the rampant corruption, drug-related violence, poor education levels and increase trust in government institutions - including accusations of fraud in the recent elections? And internationally, how will his government negotiate the terms of energy sales from the Itaipu dam with Brazil, continue to recognise Taiwan, snubbing China, and move the Paraguayan embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem without angering key trade partners in the Arab world? 

The outlook for one of the most unequal countries in the Americas, in terms of income and wealth, isn't positive.

Show Notes:

• Overview of the elections in Paraguay

• The origins of President-elect Santiago Pena

• Horacio Cartes' influence in Paraguay

• The re-negotiation of the Itaipu dam

Andrew Nickson has four decades' experience of teaching, research and consultancy on public administration reform, local governance, decentralization and urban water supply. He has a particular interest in Sierra Leone, Nepal and Paraguay, countries where he has had long-term work assignments. He is currently lead trainer on ‘Decentralised Governance and Peacebuilding’ and ‘Acting Locally: Citizen Participation for Resilient Institutions’ for the Turin-based United Nations System Staff College (UNSSC), delivered both through distance learning and face-to-face courses. He writes regularly for the Economist Intelligence Unit, Oxford Analytica and HIS Markit.