Logo
    Search

    Paul Bloxham: HSBC Chief Economist on whether the OCR will be hiked further than 75 basis points

    enJanuary 24, 2023

    About this Episode

    The Reserve Bank is set to make their next OCR announcement in a month, and predictions say it'll make a 75 basis point hike.

    This will take the OCR to 5 percent, but economists are wondering if that will be the ceiling for rate hikes. 

    HSBC Chief Economist Paul Bloxham speculates that this upcoming rate hike may be the last one we're faced with for a while because the economy is already starting to slow down.

    "The economy's already weakening, the housing market's already weakening substantially, we've got very clear weakness in business confidence and consumer confidence. We think the next cab off the rank is for the labour market to show clearer signs of weakening as well." 

    LISTEN ABOVE

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Recent Episodes from Best of Business

    Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on his new business industry guide BBQ Economics

    Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on his new business industry guide BBQ Economics

    Veteran business journalist Liam Dann aims to educate readers about business, money and the economy in his new guide- 'BBQ Economics'.

    The book is designed to answer challenging financial questions in a familiar, entertaining and Kiwi-specific way.

    Liam Dann says he's noticed business news felt 'sectioned-off' with all the jargon and language- and he hopes to break down the barriers.

    "The debate around interest rates and inflation- people are very engaged and sometimes there are barriers around the language, and I hope that I'm helping to translate some of that stuff for people."

    LISTEN ABOVE

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Francesca Rudkin: Hopefully this is a wake-up call for media

    Francesca Rudkin: Hopefully this is a wake-up call for media

    The upheaval within the television industry continued this week, with TVNZ announcing cuts to its news and current affairs department on Friday. It’s not just news bulletins proposed to be cut, but also flagship shows such as Sunday and Fair Go.

    It’s a devastating time for those involved, and another brutal hit to the industry on top of the shock announcement of Newshub’s proposed demise last week.

    I’ve been involved in the media for 28 years, and for 26 years colleagues with more experience have been telling me the industry would soon be unrecognisable.

    Admittedly, a lot has changed in those 28 years, especially in television. There have been too many restructures, strategy shifts and changes to programming priorities to list; but amazingly the demise of traditional free-to-air commercial television never quite came the way it had been prophesised. Until now.

    I’m amazed at both how long it took - it’s hung in well all things considered – and at the industry’s defiance; which is why I’m a bit taken aback that the hit has finally come.

    But here’s the thing. The challenges facing media, and in particular television, have been known for decades. We have known there aren’t enough advertising dollars to support the number of media outlets. We have known that in the digital era, eyeballs are moving to smaller screens. We have known that digital simply can’t be monetised like TV. We have known it’s all changed.

    I was never in the heart of all the action, but I can remember over a decade ago there were conversations between TV3 and TVNZ about sharing news resources. These conversations didn’t just start a few weeks ago.

    There were conversations about news bulletins, and how many we needed, there were conversations about to compete against streaming services and the need to offer digital streaming services as quickly as possible.

    So, has everything moved too slow? Did we hold on to a good thing for too long just because we could and not because we should? It’s been an impossible balancing act, media know they need to be where the audience is growing on digital, they also know that they’ll made less money as their audiences get there. And harder still, the money from television enables the investment in digital services.

    Restructures are hugely unsentimental beasts driven by the bottom line - they do not reflect the talent, work ethic or personality of those impacted. And it is concerning to see the journalists and shows that both hold our politicians and others to account and which reflect our unique place in the world have been the target of cuts.

    But any business owner will tell you that if your business is not in a solid position when a recession hits then you’re already on the back foot, making the fight to survive harder.

    I can only hope, now that the blinkers are off and the brutal state of the media industry has been revealed, that the conversations about the industry’s future leads to action. No more sitting on our hands as advertiser dollars head overseas to Meta, Google and fair payment is made in exchange for content. Let’s speed up collaboration between state owned media – maybe with less consultants this time - and we see a more aggressive transition to being competitive in this new landscape.

    A strong fourth estate makes for a strong democracy, and a vibrant, cohesive country. It’s worth fighting for.

    LISTEN ABOVE

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Jamie Mackay: The Country host on the petition to keep the live animal exports ban in place

    Jamie Mackay: The Country host on the petition to keep the live animal exports ban in place

    A petition urging the Government to keep the ban on live animal exports in place is gaining traction.

    Despite the Government promising to repeal the ban during the election, over 13,000 people have signed.

    The Country's Jamie Mackay says this is a polarising topic that's divided New Zealand's farming community.

    LISTEN ABOVE

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on his new book BBQ Economics

    Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on his new book BBQ Economics

    Financial journalism veteran Liam Dann aims to guide New Zealanders through the business world using familiar Kiwi terms.

    BBQ Economics examines everything from interest rates, to economic conditions to the price of cheese- and it's out in bookstores this week.

    Liam Dann himself explains the purpose of this book here today.

    LISTEN ABOVE

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Jill Brinsdon: brand strategist explains the mysterious takeover of Temu

    Jill Brinsdon: brand strategist explains the mysterious takeover of Temu

    Chinese e-commerce firm Temu has been taking the world of online retail by storm.

    The retailer's 'shop like a billionaire' campaign reflects their too-good-to-be true prices and deals promoted to consumers on social media- and beyond.

    Brand strategist Jill Brinsdon says Temu's targeting bargain hunters, and they seem determined to sweep the competition. 

    "It's quite a classic strategy, Chemist Warehouse has come to New Zealand and done a similar thing. You have to have big pockets, then you come in and you're the loss-leader- and you clean up the market."

    LISTEN ABOVE

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Glenn Starr: Ventus Energy CEO hopes fast-tracked consents will lead to more windfarms and cheaper electricity

    Glenn Starr: Ventus Energy CEO hopes fast-tracked consents will lead to more windfarms and cheaper electricity

    There's hope that the Government's plan to fast-track consents will speed up the production of independently created windfarms- eventually leading to cheaper electricity.

    The new regime gives ministers the final say to sign off on initiatives it considers to be of regional or national significance.

    Ventus Energy CEO Glenn Starr says shorter consenting timeframes will allow the company to compete with other generator retailers. 

    "As an independent, it's difficult to keep everything running smoothly through the consent procuress and development process."

    LISTEN ABOVE

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Murray Olds: Australian correspondent on the Reserve Bank of Australia potentially going too hard to reduce inflation

    Murray Olds: Australian correspondent on the Reserve Bank of Australia potentially going too hard to reduce inflation

    There's growing concern Australia's Reserve Bank may have gone too far to reduce inflation.

    The RBA infamously pushed the Official Cash Rate up 13 times in a row, and some economists are concerned Australia's economy may suffer as a result.

    Australian correspondent Murray Olds says decreased spending has shrunk economic growth in the last three months of 2023.

    LISTEN ABOVE

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Troy Clarry: Hospitality New Zealand Accommodation Chair welcomes proposed changes to emergency housing

    Troy Clarry: Hospitality New Zealand Accommodation Chair welcomes proposed changes to emergency housing

    The motel sector is welcoming the Government's new priority one emergency housing policies.

    Families with children living in emergency motels are being pushed to the front of the queue for a state house.

    It's also introducing a new verification system to crack down on who can access emergency motel accommodation to begin with.

    Hospitality New Zealand Accommodation Chair Troy Clarry says most moteliers want to get back to traditional motel business.

    "The reliance on MSD income for moteliers has decreased, and you've only got a few operators who are not traditional moteliers, who are still in it for the business."

    LISTEN ABOVE

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Shane Jones: Minister for Regional Economic Development on the Government's fast-track approval scheme

    Shane Jones: Minister for Regional Economic Development on the Government's fast-track approval scheme

    The Government has promised bigger projects will be built faster and more cost-effectively under their fast-track approval scheme.

    This legislation, which would give power to ministers to sign-off consents for major infrastructure projects, has passed its first reading in the House.

    Minister for Regional Economic Development Shane Jones says a 'long-term pipeline' of projects will encourage investors.

    "We need to build a pipeline of projects, to show both ourselves and people overseas that if you want to invest in New Zealand, there's a long-term pipeline of both private and public sector projects."

    LISTEN ABOVE

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Helen Clark: Former Prime Minister disapproves of trimming down TVNZ news show

    Helen Clark: Former Prime Minister disapproves of trimming down TVNZ news show

    Former Prime Minister Helen Clark says trimming TVNZ's flagship news show in half would be tragic.

    TVNZ has confirmed it is proposing to cut up to 68 roles.

    Our newsroom understands about 35 are news roles.

    It comes a week after Warner Brothers Discovery announced a proposal to scrap Newshub.

    Clark says we'd barely get 14 minutes of news, then sport and the weather, and that just wouldn't cover it.

    "You wouldn't carry much of a newsroom to fill a bulletin that literally would be 14 or 15 minutes worth of news- so I think that would be a sad day."

    LISTEN ABOVE

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.