uncertainty

original episode notes and transcript here: 

https://future.a16z.com/podcasts/innovating-in-bets/

Longtime podcast showrunner (2014-2022), primary host, and editor Sonal Chokshi shares three best-of episodes as she shifts gears and the show goes on hiatus until relaunched with a new host. 

The second of these three special rerun episodes is a conversation that originally took place spring/summer 2019, pre-pandemic (ah, that we could remember that time!) – between a16z co-founder Marc Andreessen and Sonal interviewing author, consultant/advisor, and former pro poker player Annie Duke, on one of her first few appearances with us. It’s a conversation quite unlike her other conversations, and one in a series of special joint interviews Marc and Sonal did. So there's a lot of high-speed talking, but the three cover a broad range of topics relevant to both businesses and individuals: on skill vs luck, on outcomes vs process, on asking the right questions, on how to communicate in probabilities within an organization or team, and, on how NOT making a decision is also a decision and why that matters. 

Be sure to also check out this feed for the followup conversation with Annie, Jeff Jordan, and Sonal on the specifics of HOW to Decide as well -- the practical and organizational implementations. (Because the a16z Podcast became an early go-to for book authors to release their books, Annie agreed to share her next book with us first.) But overall, these evergreen episodes are really all about INNOVATION, which is another signature theme in defining the identity of the a16z Podcast…

Do we really know the age of the universe? On this episode, Neil deGrasse Tyson and comic co-host Paul Mecurio answer astrophysics questions about the big bang, gravitational waves, and the speed of light with astrophysicist Hakeem Oluseyi. 

NOTE: StarTalk+ Patrons can watch or listen to this entire episode commercial-free.

Thanks to our Patrons Samuel Case, Daniel, Nicole Hensley, Larry Nixon, NaOnak Apophis, Erik Maynard, Carrie Beougher, Michael Aguilar, Shakhan, and Alexander Newhouse for supporting us this week.

Image Credit: NASA/CXC/Univ. of Potsdam/L. Oskinova et al.

It seems like investors are especially obsessed with the psychology of decision making -- high stakes, after all -- but all kinds of decisions, whether in life or business -- like dating, product management, what to eat or watch on Netflix -- are an "investment portfolio" of decisions... even if you sometimes feel like you're making one big decision at a time (like, say, marriage or what product to develop next or who to hire).

Obviously, not all decisions are equal; in fact, sometimes we don't even have to spend any time deciding. So how do we know which decisions to apply a robust decision process too, which ones not to? What are the strategies, mindsets, tools to help us decide? How can we operationalize a good decision process and decision hygiene into our teams and organizations? After all, we're tribal creatures -- our opinions are infectious (for better and for worse) -- so how do we convey vs. convince, and not necessarily agree but inform to decide? Especially given common pitfalls (resulting, hindsight bias, etc.), and "the paradox of experience", including even (and more so) winning vs. losing.

Decision expert (and leading poker player) Annie Duke comes back on the a16z Podcast -- after our first conversation with her for Thinking in Bets, which focused mainly on WHY our decision making gets so frustrated -- to talk about her new book, which picks up where the last left off, on HOW to Decide: Simple Tools for Better Choices. In conversation with a16z managing partner Jeff Jordan (and former CEO of OpenTable and former GM of eBay among other things) -- so, from all sides of investing, operating, life -- Annie shares tips for decision makers of all kinds making decisions under uncertainty... really, all of us.

The views expressed here are those of the individual AH Capital Management, L.L.C. (“a16z”) personnel quoted and are not the views of a16z or its affiliates. Certain information contained in here has been obtained from third-party sources, including from portfolio companies of funds managed by a16z. While taken from sources believed to be reliable, a16z has not independently verified such information and makes no representations about the enduring accuracy of the information or its appropriateness for a given situation. In addition, this content may include third-party advertisements; a16z has not reviewed such advertisements and does not endorse any advertising content contained therein.

This content is provided for informational purposes only, and should not be relied upon as legal, business, investment, or tax advice. You should consult your own advisers as to those matters. References to any securities or digital assets are for illustrative purposes only, and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Furthermore, this content is not directed at nor intended for use by any investors or prospective investors, and may not under any circumstances be relied upon when making a decision to invest in any fund managed by a16z. (An offering to invest in an a16z fund will be made only by the private placement memorandum, subscription agreement, and other relevant documentation of any such fund and should be read in their entirety.) Any investments or portfolio companies mentioned, referred to, or described are not representative of all investments in vehicles managed by a16z, and there can be no assurance that the investments will be profitable or that other investments made in the future will have similar characteristics or results. A list of investments made by funds managed by Andreessen Horowitz (excluding investments for which the issuer has not provided permission for a16z to disclose publicly as well as unannounced investments in publicly traded digital assets) is available at https://a16z.com/investments/.

Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Please see https://a16z.com/disclosures for additional important information.