Logo
    Search

    E121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more

    enMarch 24, 2023

    Podcast Summary

    • Concerns and Doubts about the Federal Reserve's Monetary PolicyCritics express skepticism about the Fed's handling of inflation, raising doubts about their competence and urging for improved management of the economy.

      There are concerns about the Federal Reserve's handling of monetary policy. It is noted that the Fed was late to react to inflation, taking nine months to respond to a surprise inflation print in 2021. The conversation also highlights that there are doubts about whether the Fed knows what they're doing. Some participants express skepticism about the Fed's recent rate hike and raise questions about the possibility of a regime change. There is also a discussion on whether the Fed is adequately recognizing the stress and distress the economy is currently facing. Overall, the conversation points to criticism of the Fed's actions and calls for them to do a better job in managing inflation and the economy.

    • Differing Views on Inflation and Banking Crisis ManagementManaging inflation and addressing the banking crisis requires careful decision-making, considering factors such as unrealized losses, liquidity issues, and the need for a better understanding of the underlying problem.

      There is disagreement on the approach to dealing with inflation and the banking crisis. While the conventional view suggests raising interest rates until they are above inflation, David Sacks argues that this ignores the stress building up in the banking system due to unrealized losses. He believes that cutting rates or standing pat would have been the right decision. On the other hand, Jason Calacanis believes that a combination of quantitative tightening and easing is necessary to address the liquidity issue. He argues that the Fed should have raised rates to create short-term chaos and gain a better understanding of the underlying problem. The lack of clarity and signal in the Fed's decision can be damaging to the economy. Overall, the conversation highlights the complexity of managing inflation and the need for careful decision-making.

    • The Impact of Liquidity Crisis on Commercial Real Estate DebtThe liquidity crisis in banks is causing a credit crunch for commercial real estate developers, leading to underutilized buildings and vacant leases. The warning signs of this crisis should not be ignored.

      There are concerns regarding the liquidity crisis in banks and the impact it may have on commercial real estate debt. The decline in asset values at banks, combined with the decrease in available credit, is creating a credit crunch for commercial real estate developers. Banks, especially smaller ones, are experiencing a freeze and are hesitant to provide loans or refinance existing ones. This credit crunch is further exacerbated by the current state of banks' liquidity and their defensive posture. The situation is dire, as many buildings are underutilized due to remote work, and leases are becoming vacant. The market signals suggest a potential improvement, but the warning signs of a liquidity crisis and its impact on real estate should be taken seriously.

    • Risks and Challenges in the Commercial Real Estate Loan MarketThe commercial real estate loan market poses significant risks due to refinancing and potential losses, creating uncertainty for community banks and affecting individuals' ability to obtain loans or experience higher interest rates. The Federal Reserve must take decisive action to address these risks effectively.

      There is a significant risk in the commercial real estate loan market due to the large amount of refinancing and potential unrealized losses. Community banks, which hold most of these loan portfolios, are facing the challenge of uncertainty regarding the true value of these loans. Unlike securities like T-bills or mortgage bonds, there is no liquid marketplace to determine the extent of impairment in loan portfolios. Only when there are defaults and re-pricings in the market will the true exposure of these loans be known. This poses a more subtle and pernicious problem as commercial real estate is a dynamic market with various factors such as leases and sub leases influencing its value. The overbuild and potential oversupply of buildings add to the risk, affecting the market value of these assets. As a result, individuals may face difficulties in obtaining loans or experience higher interest rates, while bondholders may seek safer assets and abandon riskier ones. It highlights the complexity of the current economic situation and the need for decisive action from the Federal Reserve to address these risks effectively.

    • The Looming Crisis in the Commercial Real Estate MarketThe current economic downturn has caused vacant office spaces, decreased rental income, and potential defaults on debts, necessitating a solution involving cooperation between banks, real estate owners, and the Federal Reserve.

      The commercial real estate market is facing a looming crisis. With the current economic downturn, many office spaces are becoming vacant and there are no buyers for them. This leads to a decrease in rental income for real estate owners, making it difficult for them to meet their debt service obligations. As leases and loans roll, the value of the buildings and the rental rates have significantly decreased. This situation could result in real estate owners defaulting on their debts, leading the banks to own the buildings. However, due to the lack of buyers and liquidity in the market, the banks would have to sell the buildings at rock-bottom prices in auctions. This collapse in the commercial real estate market would also affect the tax base of cities. To prevent this scenario, it is suggested that the banks and real estate owners may need to come to some sort of agreement, backed by the Federal Reserve, to stabilize the market.

    • The Impact of Debt and Asset Values on the Current Economic SituationThe excessive use of debt to stimulate growth poses a significant risk, as declining asset values can amplify strain on the system. The government may provide financial support to maintain stability.

      The current economic situation revolves around the concept of debt and asset values. It is evident that the US government will continue printing money and creating programs to support asset values and prevent a detrimental economic ripple effect. However, the excessive use of debt to stimulate growth poses a significant risk. The decline in asset values can be amplified through leverage, leading to severe strain on the system. The need for continuous debt-driven growth, especially during recessions or natural asset price declines, is a matter of concern. To sustain stability, the government may provide financial support to real estate and banks. Ultimately, the conversation highlights the debate between modern monetary theory, which advocates for printing money, and the potential consequences it may entail.

    • Approach hyperinflation and the rise of Bitcoin to $1 million with caution and evaluate the credibility of claims.Rather than relying on dramatic predictions, it is more practical to understand the flow of dollars during economic stress, which tends to increase instead of decrease.

      While some individuals may believe in the potential for hyperinflation and the rise of Bitcoin to $1 million, it is important to approach such predictions with caution. While there are valid arguments for the possibility of increased money printing and further quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, the idea of hyperinflation and its impact on the US dollar is considered to be more speculative. It is crucial to evaluate the credibility of such claims, especially when individuals have significant personal investments in Bitcoin or a specific agenda. Rather than relying solely on dramatic predictions, it may be more practical to focus on understanding the flow of dollars in moments of economic stress, which tends to increase rather than decrease.

    • Potential Financial Crises and Uncertain OutcomesTiming and severity of potential financial crises remain uncertain, with concerns about devaluation of bonds, lending costs, rising government borrowing costs. Bitcoin may not be an effective refuge, leading investors to explore alternative risk mitigation strategies.

      There are potential financial crises looming on the horizon, but the timing and outcomes are uncertain. While there are concerns about the devaluation of long-dated bonds, increased lending costs, and rising government borrowing costs, it is difficult to predict when these crises will fully manifest. It is suggested that there may be three phases to this financial crisis: banking losses, a credit crunch and real estate crisis, and finally a government debt crisis. However, the exact timing and severity of these phases remain uncertain. Additionally, while Bitcoin is seen by some as a potential refuge from an inflationary crisis, its accessibility and usability may hinder its effectiveness. As a result, investors are exploring alternative avenues to mitigate risk and allocate capital.

    • Investing in Real Estate and Capital Equipment as a Hedge Against InflationInflationary risks can be mitigated by reallocating risk assets to industries tied to real estate and capital equipment, while also addressing government spending accountability to avoid an economic meltdown.

      There are companies that can benefit in an inflationary environment, particularly those tied to real estate and capital equipment. It is not solely about investing in Bitcoin for safety, but rather reallocating risk assets to areas that may be better guarded against inflationary shocks. A significant risk that is not being widely discussed is the debt ceiling vote due in June. If the Republican party takes a hard line and demands massive deficit cuts before approving an increase in the debt limit, it could lead to a default on US debt. It is essential for both parties to come together and address government spending accountability to avoid a meltdown in the economy. While there may be inflationary effects and asset value shocks, the possibility of hyperinflation like the Weimar Republic is unlikely due to the US dollar's reserve currency status.

    • The US Government's Coordinated Effort to Control the Crypto MarketThe US government is taking steps to regulate and restrict the crypto industry, potentially motivated by concerns over the banking system and a desire to limit alternatives to the US dollar.

      There appears to be a coordinated effort by the US government to crack down on crypto. Various government agencies and authorities have taken steps to regulate, restrict, and penalize the crypto industry. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has filed lawsuits, settled cases, and labeled crypto assets as securities. The Biden administration has proposed bills and made moves against crypto miners and Ethereum. Many believe that this crackdown is related to the banking system's stress and the inflationary crisis. Additionally, there are theories that the government wants to limit people's off-ramp options from the US dollar. While some see this as a coincidence or a reaction to public dissatisfaction, others believe there is a deliberate effort to hinder and control the crypto market.

    • Evaluating Bitcoin as a solution to the fragility of the banking system.Instead of relying on Bitcoin, addressing the systemic shocks and broken systems in the financial infrastructure should be prioritized to prevent moral hazards and ensure stability.

      While the fragility of the banking system is a legitimate concern, connecting it to Bitcoin as a solution may not be accurate. The value of Bitcoin has not significantly increased despite the financial system's challenges, suggesting that it may not be widely adopted as an off-ramp from the current financial infrastructure. Instead, it is important to focus on the systemic shocks building up in the system and addressing the broken systems of the financial infrastructure. Topics such as the debt ceiling problem and the commercial real estate crisis deserve more attention as they have broader implications for borrowing, starting businesses, and capitalizing risk assets. It is crucial to prioritize these issues and prevent moral hazards rather than getting caught up in Bitcoin-related discussions.

    • The Debate Over How Depositors Should Be Treated in a Banking CrisisThere is a disagreement between the old-fashioned perspective and the modern regulatory view on whether depositors should bear the responsibility for a bank's failure or if they should be fully insured to prevent moral hazard.

      There is a debate about how depositors should be treated in a banking crisis. One view is the old-fashioned perspective that if a bank goes under, depositors who exceed the FDIC amount should lose their money to create discipline on the banks. However, the modern regulatory view argues that depositors, even sophisticated ones, are not equipped to evaluate a bank's balance sheet and should not be held responsible for hidden toxic assets. The regulators believe that making depositors liable for such risks does not significantly increase moral hazard. Fully insuring deposits for small banks is being advocated to prevent money flowing only to the top four banks. The cost of ensuring depositors is manageable, and it raises questions about the adequacy of the FDIC fund and the true risk of depositing money in a bank. However, guaranteeing 100% of deposits could significantly impact the profitability and stock prices of banks.

    • Exploring Solutions and Risks in the Banking SystemThere are options like load balancing and vaults to address concerns surrounding bank deposits, while recognizing that banks function by loaning money and investing in assets that may fluctuate in value. An understanding of these risks is necessary for developing free market solutions.

      There are various options and solutions emerging in the free market to address the concerns surrounding bank deposits. One such solution mentioned is load balancing across multiple accounts, where accounts over $250k would be backstopped and insured. Additionally, there have been discussions about creating vaults where banks would hold money safely for a fee. It is important to understand the function of banks, which involves loaning money and investing in various assets that generate returns. While the value of these assets may fluctuate, it does not mean that there is no asset value at all. If a bank's buffer between asset value and deposits is exceeded, the bank may have negative equity, but depositors would still receive a portion of their deposits. Overall, the conversation highlights the need for a free market solution to address risks in the banking system.

    • Reevaluating the FDIC: Considerations for Backstopping Banks and Ensuring Stability.Reevaluating the FDIC coverage and considering factors such as company size and probability of losses can prevent bank runs, create stability, and adapt to technology-driven solutions.

      There is a need to reevaluate the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) and its role in backstopping banks. The discussion highlights the idea of raising the FDIC limit or creating a higher class of FDIC coverage based on the number of employees or deposits in a company. The conversation also emphasizes the importance of insurance underwriters assessing the probability and severity of potential losses, which would determine the rates set for insurance. The conversation suggests that insuring more deposits could actually lower the cost of insurance due to decreased likelihood of bank runs. Ultimately, the conversation highlights the need for the government to consider these factors in order to prevent bank runs, create stability, and adapt to technology-driven solutions.

    • Addressing the Disconnect: Aligning Consumer Expectations with Banking PracticesBanks should be transparent about their use of consumers' deposits and should share profits with all parties involved, ultimately creating a more trustworthy and consumer-oriented banking system.

      There is a disconnect between what consumers think they are getting from banks and what banks actually do with their money. Consumers expect a safe place to keep their money and basic banking services, while banks view deposits as unsecured loans that they can use to invest and generate profits. This mismatch of expectations leads to market failures in the banking system. The incentives within the banking system further exacerbate this issue, as bank management is rewarded for making profits from consumers' deposits without taking on the downside risk. Legislative changes are needed to protect consumers and ensure transparency within the banking system. Banks should be required to fully protect deposits and seek external investments for riskier activities, sharing the profits with all parties involved. By addressing these issues, the banking system can become more trustworthy and aligned with consumer expectations.

    • The Need for Greater Regulation and Oversight in Banking and Data AccessIt is crucial to implement stricter regulations in the banking industry and prevent excessive risk-taking, while also addressing bipartisan concerns about foreign access to American data and government surveillance.

      There is a need for greater regulation and oversight in the banking industry to prevent excessive risk-taking and potential fallout. The current system creates incentives for banks to gamble due to high leverage, which can have severe consequences for the economy. It is suggested that all banks should be classified as systemically important to ensure a more conservative risk posture. Additionally, the discussion around TikTok highlights the bipartisan concern about foreign access to American data and the need for divestiture or potential shutdown. However, there is also a call for equal outrage and bipartisan consensus regarding American government surveillance of its citizens.

    • Uncertainties and Challenges Surrounding the Future of TikTok in the United StatesThe US government may require TikTok to separate from its Chinese parent company, but a complete shutdown of TikTok is considered more probable due to difficulties in divestiture. This situation raises broader questions about international relations and game theory dynamics.

      There are several significant challenges and uncertainties surrounding the future of TikTok in the United States. It is suggested that the US government may mandate the separation of TikTok from its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, in order to address national security concerns. However, the idea of divestiture is deemed unrealistic due to difficulties in ensuring a clean separation and satisfying legislators. As a result, the possibility of TikTok being shut down altogether is considered more likely. The conversation also highlights the wider implications of this situation, including potential impacts on how other governments respond and the influence of the Chinese government in directing the fate of these businesses. Ultimately, this ongoing issue raises questions about game theory dynamics and reciprocity between the US and China.

    • Uncertainty and the Potential for Innovation and Growth in US-China RelationsDespite the uncertain future of US-China relations and potential tensions, the space industry offers hope for disruptive innovation and democratization of access to space, creating opportunities for startups and contributing to market growth.

      The future of US-China relations is uncertain, and the potential shutdown of certain Chinese companies could escalate tensions even further. While there is a possibility of these companies divesting and finding solutions, such as moving data centers and vetting code bases, the overall impact on the relationship between the two countries is significant. However, amid all this chaos, there is also positive news in the space industry. The successful launch of a 3D printed rocket by Relativity shows the potential for disruptive innovation and the democratization of access to space. This achievement not only brings down the cost of space flight but also opens up opportunities for startups to develop viable business models in the space industry. Additionally, advancements in low-cost energy sources may further contribute to the growth and vibrancy of this market. Ultimately, the impact of these space activities on humanity and the species remains to be seen, but there is a growing community of startups and increased attention from capital markets in this field.

    • The Potential of Renewable Energy and New Technologies in the Space Industry, and Dealing with Negativity on Social MediaLowering power prices through renewable energy or new technologies can reduce the cost of fuel and space programs, paving the way for private market products like space tourism. It is important to ignore negativity on social media when being influential.

      The cost of fuel and space programs can be reduced by lowering power prices through renewable energy or new technologies. This opens up opportunities for private market products in the space industry, such as space tourism or mining. The potential of rocket ships traveling from one location to another in a matter of minutes is seen as wild and exciting. Additionally, the conversation touches on the negative aspects of social media, where influential individuals like Jason Calacanis may face criticism and attacks. However, it is emphasized that such negativity should be ignored, as it is a common aspect of having a large following on social media.

    Recent Episodes from All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

    DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market

    DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market

    (0:00) Besties intros!

    (2:10) Responding to recent media coverage

    (17:58) DOJ/FTC strike deal to target Nvidia, OpenAI, and Microsoft

    (32:40) Meme stocks are back: Keith Gill aka Roaring Kitty resurfaces, disclosing nine figure position in GameStop

    (58:36) Citadel and BlackRock back TXSE to take on NYSE and Nasdaq

    (1:02:34) Apple to announce OpenAI iPhone deal at WWDC

    (1:09:07) Science Corner: Alarming ocean temps continue, what to expect for hurricane season

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQQhAg0mfF8

    https://x.com/vkhosla/status/1769529054955446533

    https://x.com/vkhosla/status/1796293773389127987

    https://x.com/shaunmmaguire/status/1796415146077954329

    https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1798100723617698097

    https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1798779830521000426

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/05/technology/nvidia-microsoft-openai-antitrust-doj-ftc.html

    https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ftc-opens-antitrust-probe-of-microsoft-ai-deal-29b5169a

    https://companiesmarketcap.com

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9cO3-MLHOM

    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/29/newsom-california-artifical-intelligence-regulations-00160519

    https://www.reddit.com/user/DeepFuckingValue

    https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/e-trade-considers-kicking-meme-stock-leader-keith-gill-off-platform-f2003ec4

    https://x.com/TheRoaringKitty/status/1789807772542067105

    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GME:NYSE

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-VO6dtFRes

    https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/keith-gills-gamestop-trades-pose-conundrum-for-market-cops-70cc5301

    https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/GME/gamestop/revenue

    https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/gamestop-burned-andrew-left-in-2021-hes-betting-against-the-stock-again-4377cecb

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/18/business/melvin-capital-gamestop-short.html

    https://www.instagram.com/tim.naki/reels

    https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/new-texas-stock-exchange-takes-aim-at-new-yorks-dominance-e3b4d9ba

    https://listingcenter.nasdaq.com/assets/Board%20Diversity%20Disclosure%20Five%20Things.pdf

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-05/why-is-apple-aapl-teaming-up-with-openai-both-companies-need-each-other

    https://x.com/leonsimons8/status/1793319395080520036

    Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?

    Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?

    (0:00) Bestie Intros: Jason's first show for his new production company

    (2:15) Why Sacks and Chamath are hosting a Trump fundraiser

    (18:40) House COVID investigation: findings, cover-up, what's next?

    (41:36) The Deep State Problem: unelected bureaucrats running three letter agencies for decades

    (53:04) Crypto Corner with Chamath

    (1:04:15) State of SaaS: Salesforce drops 20%, market teetering

    (1:20:10) Trump verdict: guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records

    (1:37:36) Are we seeing an AI correction?

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://oversight.house.gov/release/new-select-subcommittee-report-recommends-ecohealth-alliance-president-debarred-and-criminally-investigated-exposes-failures-in-nih-grant-procedures

    https://oversight.house.gov/release/hearing-wrap-up-nih-repeatedly-refutes-ecohealth-alliance-president-dr-peter-daszaks-testimony-tabak-testimony-reveals-federal-grant-procedures-in-need-of-serious-reform

    https://www.axios.com/2021/07/20/fauci-rand-paul-wuhan-institute

    https://oversight.house.gov/release/breaking-hhs-suspends-funding-and-proposes-formal-debarment-of-ecohealth-alliance-cites-evidence-from-covid-select-report

    https://oversight.house.gov/release/breaking-hhs-to-debar-dr-peter-daszak-president-of-ecohealth-alliance

    https://x.com/emilyakopp/status/1795482121739354552

    https://x.com/R_H_Ebright/status/1795454118594568312

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGxSlW0NrB4

    https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/dual-use-research/feds-lift-gain-function-research-pause-offer-guidance

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-flu-virus-risk-worth-taking/2011/12/30/gIQAM9sNRP_story.html

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3484390

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext

    https://oversight.house.gov/release/new-covid-select-memo-details-allegations-of-wrongdoing-and-illegal-activity-by-dr-faucis-senior-scientific-advisor

    https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-deficit

    https://x.com/KatherineEban

    https://x.com/emilyakopp

    https://www.semafor.com/article/05/28/2024/a-dying-empire-led-by-bad-people-poll-finds-young-voters-despairing-over-us-politics

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvQTXAgtA6s

    https://s23.q4cdn.com/574569502/files/doc_financials/2025/q1/CRM-Q1-FY25-Earnings-Press-Release-w-financials.pdf

    https://www.investors.com/news/economy/federal-reserve-core-pce-inflation-gdp-q1-jobless-claims-sp-500

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/05/30/nyregion/trump-trial-verdict

    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DELL:NYSE

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-30/us-gdp-grew-at-softer-pace-as-spending-inflation-marked-down

    Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls

    Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls

    (0:00) Bestie intros: Recapping "General AI Hospital"

    (2:46) Scarlett Johansson vs. OpenAI

    (14:37) OpenAI's novel off-boarding agreements, ex-employee equity problem, and safety team resignations

    (25:35) Nvidia crushes earnings again, but it faces a trillion-dollar problem

    (40:05) Understanding why economic sentiment is so negative among US citizens despite positive data

    (1:02:36) New study shows plastics in testicles

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://x.com/BobbyAllyn/status/1792679435701014908

    https://x.com/sama/status/1790075827666796666

    https://openai.com/index/how-the-voices-for-chatgpt-were-chosen

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/05/22/openai-scarlett-johansson-chatgpt-ai-voice

    https://x.com/SydSteyerhart/status/1792981291266138531

    https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/351132/openai-vested-equity-nda-sam-altman-documents-employees

    https://x.com/sama/status/1791936857594581428

    https://x.com/ilyasut/status/1790517455628198322

    https://x.com/janleike/status/1790603862132596961

    https://x.com/janleike/status/1791498184671605209

    https://openai.com/index/openai-announces-leadership-transition

    https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025

    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/INTC:NASDAQ

    https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/nvidia-2023-vs-cisco-1999-will-history-repeat

    https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/06/is-nvidia-doomed-to-be-the-next-cisco-what-investo

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/nvidia-and-the-cautionary-tale-of-cisco-systems.379022

    https://chamath.substack.com/p/2023-annual-letter

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2024/03/23/summers-inflation-reached-18-in-2022-using-the-governments-previous-formula

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/22/poll-economy-recession-biden

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCLACBW027SBOG

    https://x.com/KariLake/status/1792986501820850333

    https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2024/apr/how-big-mac-index-relates-overall-consumer-inflation

    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MCD:NYSE

    https://www.wsj.com/economy/gdp-and-the-dow-are-up-but-what-about-american-well-being-87f90e6d

    https://www.consumerreports.org/health/food-contaminants/the-plastic-chemicals-hiding-in-your-food-a7358224781

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2605.2007.00837.x

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12708228

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7559247

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21524797

    https://academic.oup.com/toxsci/advance-article/doi/10.1093/toxsci/kfae060/7673133

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6yuYkfNh-k

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYQjShJxCtM

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_4jrMwvZ2A

    GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?

    GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?

    (0:00) Bestie Intros: Recapping Phil Hellmuth's birthday weekend

    (7:38) OpenAI launches GPT-4o: better, faster, cheaper

    (29:40) Sacks demos Glue: How AI unlocked his Slack killer

    (40:12) Friedberg walks through his major breakthrough at Ohalo

    (1:01:35) Stanley Druckenmiller bets on Argentina and Javier Milei: strategy, roadmap for the US

    (1:13:54) Jason's bet on Athena, how AI will change company building

    (1:22:21) Google launches AI summaries in search

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://www.pokernews.com/news/2024/05/phil-hellmuth-60th-birthday-bash-las-vegas-45984.htm

    https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1790130703721521305

    https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1790089513387143469

    https://crfm.stanford.edu/helm/mmlu/v1.3.0/#

    https://www.businessinsider.com/inflection-implosion-chatgpt-stall-ai-consumer-chatbot-problem-2024-3

    https://www.opencompute.org

    https://glue.ai

    https://ragie.ai

    https://ohalo.com

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/07/cnbc-exclusive-cnbc-transcript-billionaire-investor-stanley-druckenmiller-speaks-with-cnbcs-squawk-box-today.html

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2024/03/23/summers-inflation-reached-18-in-2022-using-the-governments-previous-formula

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1378034932006592512

    https://www.athenawow.com/jcal

    https://calacanis.substack.com/p/startup-productivity-in-the-age-of

    https://blog.google/products/search/generative-ai-google-search-may-2024

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEzRZ35urlk

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG

    https://startuptalky.com/apple-failed-products

    In conversation with Sam Altman

    In conversation with Sam Altman

    (0:00) Welcoming Sam Altman to the show!

    (2:28) What's next for OpenAI: GPT-5, open-source, reasoning, what an AI-powered iPhone competitor could look like, and more

    (21:56) How advanced agents will change the way we interface with apps

    (33:01) Fair use, creator rights, why OpenAI has stayed away from the music industry

    (42:02) AI regulation, UBI in a post-AI world

    (52:23) Sam breaks down how he was fired and re-hired, why he has no equity, dealmaking on behalf of OpenAI, and how he organizes the company

    (1:05:33) Post-interview recap

    (1:10:38) All-In Summit announcements, college protests

    (1:19:06) Signs of innovation dying at Apple: iPad ad, Buffett sells 100M+ shares, what's next?

    (1:29:41) Google unveils AlphaFold 3.0

    Follow Sam:

    https://twitter.com/sama

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://twitter.com/EconomyApp/status/1622029832099082241

    https://sacra.com/c/openai

    https://twitter.com/tim_cook/status/1787864325258162239

    https://openai.com/index/introducing-the-model-spec

    https://twitter.com/SabriSun_Miller/status/1788298123434938738

    https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/bill-of-rights-transcript

    https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1788312545754825091

    https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/warren-buffett-just-sold-more-than-100-million-shares-of-apple-reason-why-is-eye-opening.html

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snbTCWL6rxo

    https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20240506PD216/apple-ev-startup-genai.html

    https://www.theonion.com/fuck-everything-were-doing-five-blades-1819584036

    https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-deepmind-isomorphic-alphafold-3-ai-model

    In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained

    In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained

    (0:00) Welcoming Sheryl Sandberg and remembering Dave Goldberg

    (11:10) What led Sheryl to get involved with "Screams Before Silence"; reaction to sexual violence on and after 10/7

    (28:18) Paths forward, documentary decisions, involvement of women in protests

    (53:03) Post-interview debrief

    (59:45) Science Corner: Open-source AI gene editing with OpenCRISPR-1

    Follow Sheryl:

    https://twitter.com/sherylsandberg

    Watch Screams Before Silence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAr9oGSXgak&rco=1

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://twitter.com/fakechamath

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAr9oGSXgak&rco=1

    https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/20/opinions/sheryl-sandberg-something-we-can-all-agree-on/index.html

    https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/03/1147477

    https://thegrayzone.com/2024/03/07/media-concocts-un-hamas-rape-report/amp/

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/29/world/middleeast/israel-hamas-sexual-violence-un.html

    https://github.com/Profluent-AI/OpenCRISPR

    Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax

    Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax

    (0:00) Bestie Intros: Reservation Tips!

    (5:20) Meta goes scorched earth in AI, why the stock was down despite beating on earnings

    (22:20) Tesla's roadmap, ranking the company's highest-upside bets outside of cars for the next 10 years

    (47:25) FTC bans noncompetes: impact on startups and company formation

    (1:00:33) Besties reminisce on their encounters with Steve Jobs

    (1:10:25) TikTok "divest-or-ban" bill is signed into law: Will China comply? What's it worth without the algorithm? Will a deal get done?

    (1:27:22) Biden's proposed capital gains hikes and a 25% wealth tax for those with $100M+ in assets

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://ai.meta.com/blog/meta-llama-3

    https://huggingface.co/meta-llama/Meta-Llama-3-8B

    https://about.fb.com/news/2024/04/introducing-our-open-mixed-reality-ecosystem

    https://about.fb.com/news/2024/04/meta-ai-assistant-built-with-llama-3

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/25/investing/meta-stock-plunges-ai-spending/index.html

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiMTRQXBol0

    https://twitter.com/AravSrinivas/status/1781099224169320500

    https://wow.groq.com/12-hours-later-groq-is-running-llama-3-instruct-8-70b-by-meta-ai-on-its-lpu-inference-enginge

    https://twitter.com/lauramaywendel/status/1782040453266710551

    https://twitter.com/naveengrao/status/1781491370114633816

    https://twitter.com/winglian/status/1783456379199484367

    https://www.meta.ai

    https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1780302197772952049

    https://electrek.co/2024/03/16/tesla-full-self-driving-beta-v12-finally-rolls-out

    https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-cuts-price-full-self-driving-software-by-third-8000-2024-04-21

    https://fortune.com/2024/04/15/elon-musk-tesla-cut-10-percent-global-workforce-14000-employees-slowing-ev-demand

    https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-take-shareholder-vote-shifting-incorporation-texas-musk-says-2024-02-01

    https://www.ft.com/content/46aac746-4a54-437f-a0b7-9b81b154c21d

    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TSLA:NASDAQ

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/24/tesla-stock-up-after-elon-musk-says-new-affordable-ev-models-coming.html

    https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux

    https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1776663647735218491

    https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/IR/TSLA-Q1-2024-Update.pdf

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/25/gdp-q1-2024-increased-at-a-1point6percent-rate.html

    https://palmetto.com

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pja_n8ThDsU

    https://www.fastcompany.com/90972171/cruise-suspends-driverless-vehicle-operations-in-san-francisco-after-dmv-revokes-permit

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1777496946263134414

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/03/technology/cruise-general-motors-self-driving-cars.html

    https://thehill.com/business/4615452-ftc-votes-to-ban-non-compete-agreements

    https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2024/04/ftc-announces-rule-banning-noncompetes

    https://www.techemails.com/p/steve-jobs-emails-adobes-ceo

    https://venturebeat.com/business/how-steve-jobs-felt-betrayed-by-eric-schmidt-over-googles-android

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWOt9Cjq2mw

    https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/24/24139036/biden-signs-tiktok-ban-bill-divest-foreign-aid-package

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/senate-returns-95b-foreign-aid-package-ukraine-israel/story?id=109506150

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/06/tiktok-parent-bytedance-offers-share-buyback-at-268-billion-valuation.html

    https://www.theinformation.com/articles/bytedance-exploring-scenarios-for-selling-tiktok-without-algorithm?rc=pxkrxo

    https://www.aclu.org/press-releases/senate-reauthorizes-and-expands-section-702-surveillance

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1783220583075111401

    https://www.wsj.com/tech/tiktok-ban-chinese-owners-bytedance-1a857a06

    https://x.com/MsMelChen/status/1783524423963697262

    https://x.com/Jason/status/1783556155924705388

    https://x.com/Jason/status/1783604248569360516

    https://www.atr.org/biden-calls-for-44-6-capital-gains-tax-rate-highest-capital-gains-tax-since-its-creation-in-1922

    https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/131/General-Explanations-FY2025.pdf

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-24/tax-on-rich-to-save-social-security-popular-with-swing-state-voters-poll

    https://balajis.com/p/all-it-takes-is-all-you-got

    https://twitter.com/maceskridge/status/1783290784311058788

    Google fires protestors, NPR chaos, Humane's AI Pin, Startup tax crisis, sports betting scandal

    Google fires protestors, NPR chaos, Humane's AI Pin, Startup tax crisis, sports betting scandal

    (0:00) Bestie Intros: Chamath recaps the Breakthrough Prize Ceremony, "High IQ foods"

    (9:49) All-In Summit update, Poker styles of Andrew Robl, Jason Koon, and Phil Hellmuth  

    (14:38) Google fires protestors

    (35:08) Chaos and culture wars at NPR

    (40:43) Humane's AI Pin: Marques Brownlee's review, the Ex-Apple issue, polarizing reactions

    (1:02:28) Startup tax crisis: How a recent provision upended R&D deductions

    (1:12:39) Sports betting scandal: NBA player Jontay Porter banned for life, explosion of sports betting in the US

    (1:23:33) How to get better at chess, childhood Bestie schemes

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://twitter.com/NoTechApartheid/status/1780278895058518468

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/google-workers-arrested-after-nine-hour-protest-in-google-cloud-ceos-office.html

    https://www.notechforapartheid.com

    https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/17/24133700/google-fires-28-employees-protest-israel-cloud-contract

    https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1779914595156808045

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-04-11/ty-article-magazine/.premium/saying-what-cant-be-said-israel-has-been-defeated-a-total-defeat/0000018e-cdab-dba9-a78e-efef6ba10000

    https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-wins-gaza-battles-but-risks-losing-the-war-c6a3823f

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/19/middleeast/eisenkot-netanyahu-israel-war-politics-gaza-intl/index.html

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-APSXZy9UI

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/02/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-aid-workers-killed.html

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-03-31/ty-article-magazine/.premium/israel-created-kill-zones-in-gaza-anyone-who-crosses-into-them-is-shot/0000018e-946c-d4de-afee-f46da9ee0000

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-12-15/ty-article/.premium/israeli-army-says-killed-three-hostages-mistakenly-identified-as-threat-in-northern-gaza/0000018c-6edd-dbd5-a39c-ffff08470000

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/06/world/middleeast/israel-idf-soldiers-war-social-media-video.html

    https://twitter.com/JustStop_Oil/status/1580883249228046336

    https://www.npr.org/2024/01/24/1226035539/npr-ceo-katherine-maher-wikimedia

    https://www.npr.org/about-npr/178659563/our-mission-and-vision

    https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust

    https://www.npr.org/sections/npr-extra/2024/04/12/1244456600/from-npr-president-and-ceo-katherine-maher-thoughts-on-our-mission-and-our-work

    https://twitter.com/realchrisrufo

    https://twitter.com/wokal_distance/status/1780695504210567335

    https://www.theinformation.com/articles/has-humane-created-the-next-iphone-or-the-next-google-glass

    https://humane.com

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TitZV6k8zfA

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xWXRk3yaSw

    https://www.amazon.com/Anxious-Generation-Rewiring-Childhood-Epidemic/dp/0593655036

    https://www.amazon.com/Nexus-Trilogy-Book-1-ebook/dp/B00TOZI7FM

    https://www.amazon.com/Bad-Therapy-Kids-Arent-Growing/dp/0593542924

    https://www.wsj.com/sports/basketball/jontay-porter-banned-gambling-5dd9c1a8

    https://nypost.com/2024/04/17/sports/how-jontay-porter-orchestrated-failed-nba-gambling-scandal

    https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2024/1/31/24054415/lebron-james-joins-draftkings-football-sports

    https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/39563784/sports-betting-industry-posts-record-11b-2023-revenue

    https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38386013/how-nba-new-rules-resting-stars-work

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2huVf1l4UE

    E174: Inflation stays hot, AI disclosure bill, Drone warfare, defense startups & more

    E174: Inflation stays hot, AI disclosure bill, Drone warfare, defense startups & more

    Register for the All-In Summit: https://summit.allinpodcast.co

    (0:00) Bestie Intros: J-Cal is out this week!

    (0:57) All-In Summit 2024 Announcement

    (3:10) Nvidia's market position, Collapse of Western cities, State of the cloud market

    (17:30) Inflation stays hotter than expected for the third straight month: chance of a HIKE instead of a cut?

    (45:41) AI disclosure bill: important step for creators or unnecessary?

    (1:06:27) Drone warfare: The future of war, Silicon Valley's defense decision

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://summit.allinpodcast.co

    https://youtu.be/FgUKIRnxrxw

    https://laist.com/news/kpcc-archive/election-2014-prop-47-reduces-drug-and-property-cr

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/san-francisco-election-progressives-18699100.php

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/cpi-inflation-march-2024-consumer-prices-rose-3point5percent-from-a-year-ago-in-march.html

    https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-cpi-736

    https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733

    https://twitter.com/LHSummers/status/1778093870271664291

    https://www.wsj.com/economy/inflation-march-cpi-report-interest-rate-239b7e5e

    https://twitter.com/LHSummers/status/1762607548828360798

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2024/03/23/summers-inflation-reached-18-in-2022using-the-governments-previous-formula

    https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1778098007625572487

    https://www.city-journal.org/article/lisa-d-cooks-careless-scholarship

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/08/biden-will-announce-details-of-new-student-loan-forgiveness-plan.html

    https://www.livemint.com/news/world/bidens-4-5-trillion-spending-plan-faces-deficit-test-11619956141365.html

    https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1778479545613439455

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/01/the-us-national-debt-is-rising-by-1-trillion-about-every-100-days.html

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

    https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1777017715846455470/photo/1

    https://schiff.house.gov/news/press-releases/rep-schiff-introduces-groundbreaking-bill-to-create-ai-transparency-between-creators-and-companies

    https://schiff.house.gov/imo/media/doc/the_generative_ai_copyright_disclosure_act.pdf

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/billie-eilish-nicki-minaj-200-artists-sign-letter-against-ai-music.html

    https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/6/24122915/openai-youtube-transcripts-gpt-4-training-data-google

    https://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/jury-reaches-verdict-ed-sheeran-copyright-infringement-case/story

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xG1vOxwgqJw

    https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1774074927437475862

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-produce-one-million-drones-next-year-zelenskiy-says-2023-12-19

    https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-seven-drones-every-one-ukraine-has-army-official-2023-12

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/world/europe/ukraine-drone-russia-jamming.html

    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/missile-drone-pentagon-houthi-attacks-iran-00132480

    https://www.saildrone.com

    https://govciomedia.com/dod-seeks-to-grow-partnerships-with-silicon-valley-startups

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1249871/share-of-the-global-lithium-ion-battery-manufacturing-capacity-by-country

    https://www.militaryaerospace.com/power/article/14072339/emp-high-power-electromagnetic-weapons-railguns-microwaves

    https://www.allencontrolsystems.com

    https://www.allencontrolsystems.com/bullfrog

    E173: Google buying HubSpot? FTX depositors not made whole, AI job fears, Ukraine joining NATO

    E173: Google buying HubSpot? FTX depositors not made whole, AI job fears, Ukraine joining NATO

    (0:00) Meet All-In's new CEO: Jon Haile!

    (7:13) FTX Correction: Depositors are not getting "made whole"

    (19:26) Trump Media updates

    (27:12) Google considering bid to acquire HubSpot: Price, relevancy, feasible with regulators? Should Google investors be worried or excited?

    (49:20) AI job loss fears go mainstream, potential for autonomous domestic robots in next five years

    (1:11:17) Blinken says Ukraine will join NATO: WW3 risk, election implications

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/27/sbf-team-argues-for-5-6-year-sentence-ftx-customers-to-get-money-back.html

    https://www.axios.com/2024/02/06/ftx-repay-customers-creditors-investors

    https://www.reuters.com/technology/ftx-gets-court-approval-sell-crypto-assets-2023-09-13

    https://www.reuters.com/technology/ftx-expects-us-reduce-bankruptcy-claim-3-billion-5-billion-2024-03-21

    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DJT:NASDAQ

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/djt-truth-social-trump-media-stock-price-earnings-4ad7c458

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/djt-truth-social-trump-media-stock-price-today-d2249f43

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/03/trump-media-es-family-trust-2022-loans

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/03/business/trump-media-insider-trading-guilty.html

    https://twitter.com/mtaibbi/status/1619029772977455105

    https://nypost.com/2023/01/28/left-wing-think-tank-responsible-for-fake-russia-stories

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/google-parent-alphabet-weighs-offer-hubspot-sources-say-2024-04-04

    https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/HUBS/hubspot/revenue

    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/HUBS:NYSE

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/266249/advertising-revenue-of-google

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mergers_and_acquisitions_by_Alphabet

    https://ir.hubspot.com/news/hubspot-reports-q4-and-full-year-2023-results

    https://twitter.com/thedailyshow/status/1774995166778020059

    https://www.klarna.com/international/press/klarna-ai-assistant-handles-two-thirds-of-customer-service-chats-in-its-first-month

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2014/12/30/a-historical-look-at-the-components-of-u-s-gdp-1929-to-2011

    https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1983/06/02/issue.html

    https://m.imdb.com/name/nm0001394/mediaviewer/rm2226878976

    https://twitter.com/lina_colucci/status/1775668500931268665

    https://twitter.com/tsarnick/status/1748923998052975099

    https://twitter.com/Figure_robot/status/1767913661253984474

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1746964887949934958

    https://www.geckorobotics.com/company/robots

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1775926842257813910

    https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-great-risk-front-line-collapse-war-russia

    https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-ukraine-western-troops-remarks

    https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-ukrainian-foreign-minister-dmytro-kuleba-before-their-meeting-10

    Related Episodes

    We grade Fed Chair Jerome Powell

    We grade Fed Chair Jerome Powell
    We're putting Fed Chair Jerome Powell in the hot seat. Without fear and without favor, our guests look at Powell's record on jobs, inflation and financial stability.

    For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.

    Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices

    NPR Privacy Policy

    The Triple Threat: Commercial Real Estate, Surging Asian Crude Demand, & Fed Tightening

    The Triple Threat: Commercial Real Estate, Surging Asian Crude Demand, & Fed Tightening

    Explore your CI Futures options: https://completeintel.com/futures

    In this episode, we’re joined by experts Dan McNamara, Tracy Shuchart, and Mackinley Ross to discuss three key themes: CRE vs WFH, Asian crude demand, and inflation vs earnings.

    Dan kicks off the discussion with the latest news of Salesforce leaving their headquarters in San Francisco, the largest employer in the city, and giving up 1 million square feet of office space. Other high-profile CRE issues in the city include two major banks – Union Bank and Wells Fargo – discounting their building sales by 52% and 67%, respectively. The cause seems to be Work From Home (WFH) and rising rates, with empty offices and rising rates forcing ZIRP-era prices down. Dan explores the drivers and impacts of this trend, how it could accelerate, and what other markets it could hit. He also examines the potential impact on local tax revenues and whether taxes on CRE are low compared to other revenue sources.

    Moving on to Asian crude demand, Tracy highlights the recent rally in crude prices and the focus on Asian crude demand. Refineries in the region are aggressively buying for June deliveries, and China’s imports are up. She delves into what’s driving this demand and whether Asian economies are really coming back that quickly.

    Finally, Mac talks about inflation vs earnings, with the recent headline CPI coming down slightly but core CPI going up. The Fed has said several times they watch core, not headline, so we don’t seem to have the makings of a Fed pause or a pivot yet. With positive bank earnings, does this reinforce the case for a 25 bps rise in May, and will we see talk of a June rise too?

    Key themes:
    1. CRE vs WFH
    2. Asian crude demand
    3. Inflation vs earnings

    This is the 61st episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

    Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
    Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
    Dan: https://twitter.com/danjmcnamara
    Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl


    Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/OFNJ9knoIiM

    Do The Math...BITCOIN is "The Way" with Greg Foss

    Do The Math...BITCOIN is "The Way" with Greg Foss

    Episode 62:

    On today's show I speak with Greg Foss, FREEDOM Maximalist, Co-Founder of Looking Glass Education & executive director of Validus Power Corp. Greg is focused on educating everyone on the potential of BITCOIN and how BITCOIN is a viable solution to FIAT currency debasement due to CB money printing. BITCOIN = Global Reserve Asset!

    • Background into Bitcoin - 30 years + in financial markets

    • Math is Universal Language

    • Do the Math - Bitcoin is Simple Math

    • Inelastic Supply of Bitcoin - 21M

    • Central Banks will Have to Continue Printing

    • Too much Governement Debt

    • Higher Debt at Higher Rates & Costs

    • Bitcoin = Global Reserve Asset

    • Bitcoin = Digital Energy 

    • Bitcoin = Insurance Policy Against FIAT Debasement

    • Banking Crisis

    • FIAT Will Collapse - Question is When? 

    • Current Valuation of Bitcoin based on World Assets 

    • ZERO Bitcoin is Worst Allocation!

    • Avoid Biases & Heuristics & Overthinking

    • SIMPLE MATH!

     

    Visit Greg's Looking Glass Site: https://lookingglasseducation.com/

    Contact Greg on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FossGregfoss

     

    ✨SUBSCRIBE to The RO Show Podcast!✨
    https://youtube.com/@theroshowpodcast

     

    ➡️CONNECT with ROSANNA PRESTIA & The RO Show⬅️


    ✨ONE SITE FOR ALL: https://sociatap.com/RosannaPrestia

    ✨YOUTUBE: https://youtube.com/@TheROShowPodcast

    ✨TWITTER: https://www.twitter.com/@rosannainvests

    ✨TWITTER: https://www.twitter.com/@theroshowpod

    ✨WEBSITE: https://www.rosannaprestia.com

     

    THINK Different with Rosanna
    ©️ 2022-2023

    Vance Leads Ryan, Fed Expects Stubborn Inflation, Gen. Hayden's Crazy Claim

    Vance Leads Ryan, Fed Expects Stubborn Inflation, Gen. Hayden's Crazy Claim
    Join Jim and Greg as they are glad to see a new poll showing the Ohio Senate race narrowly favoring the GOP. They also grimace as the Fed expects inflation to stay stubbornly high for awhile - even with persistent interest rate hikes. And they fire back at former NSA and CIA Director Gen. Michael Hayden for absurdly agreeing that Republicans in the U.S. are the most "nihilistic, dangerous, and contemptible group" recently seen anywhere in the world.

    Jahresrückblick 2022: Geldpolitik und Immobilien

    Jahresrückblick 2022: Geldpolitik und Immobilien
    In dieser Woche lässt das Team von Handelsblatt Today das Jahr Revue passieren und diskutiert sechs Themen, die dabei im Vordergrund standen. Noch im März, also nach dem russischen Angriff auf die Ukraine, hatte die Europäische Zentralbank für 2022 mit einer Inflationsrate von 5,1 Prozent gerechnet. Diese lag zu Jahresende jedoch bei 10 Prozent. Vor allem auch die hohen Energiepreise trieben die Rate nach oben. In der zweiten Folge des Handelsblatt-Today-Jahresrückblicks 2022 diskutieren die Hosts Lena Jesberg, Anis Micijevic und Ina Karabasz, ob die EZB früher hätte reagieren können und ob es für sie schwieriger ist zu reagieren als die amerikanische Notenbank Fed. Sie besprechen auch, ob die Inflation gekommen ist um zu bleiben und welche Auswirkungen das auf den Immobilienmarkt hat: Baukredite werden teurer, die Nachfrage sinkt und somit kommt es auch zu einer Trendwende bei der Preisentwicklung. Die Hosts erzählen, warum das allerdings nicht unbedingt bei Metropolregionen gilt und ob es für sie ein guter Zeitpunkt wäre, selber eine Immobilie zu kaufen. *** Exklusives Angebot für Handelsblatt Today-Hörer: Testen Sie Handelsblatt Premium 4 Wochen für 1 € und bleiben Sie immer informiert, was die Finanzmärkte bewegt. Mehr Informationen: www.handelsblatt.com/mehrfinanzen *** Wenn Sie Anmerkungen, Fragen, Kritik oder Lob zu dieser Folge haben, schreiben Sie uns gern per E-Mail: today@handelsblattgroup.com Ab sofort sind wir bei WhatsApp, Signal und Telegram über folgende Nummer erreichbar: 01523 – 80 99 427