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    E120: Banking crisis and the great VC reset

    Startups should prioritize enhancing financial expertise and avoiding conflicts of interest in managing funds. Reforms in regulations and involvement of venture capitalists without conflicts can lead to better management and long-term success.

    enMarch 17, 2023

    About this Episode

    (0:00) Bestie intro!

    (1:35) Recapping the events of the past week

    (5:39) Understanding the banking crisis

    (32:55) Solving the global debt problem, righting the ship

    (54:20) VC market update: Founders Fund splits its eighth fund in two, Sequoia's reported returns, YC cuts its growth-stage team

    (1:08:36) Science corner: Superconductors

    (1:24:56) DeSantis update, Ukraine spending run rate, bestie wrap!

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://linktr.ee/calacanis

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow the pod:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565388-svb-financial-blow-up-risk

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/easy-loans-great-service-why-silicon-valley-loved-silicon-valley-bank-6b3f203e

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-silicon-valley-bank-bailout-chorus-yellen-treasury-fed-fdic-deposit-limit-dodd-frank-run-cc80761e

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-16/credit-suisse-got-its-lifeline-now-it-needs-to-win-back-clients

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-15/credit-suisse-top-shareholder-rules-out-more-assistance-to-bank-lf9gfhbr

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/16/world/france-pension-vote#france-pension-vote

    https://www.politico.eu/article/police-fire-dutch-farmer-protest-nitrogen-emission-cut

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-64968795

    https://www.treasurydirect.gov

    https://www.axios.com/2023/03/03/founders-fund-slashes-vc-peter-thiel

    https://www.axios.com/2023/03/15/stripe-50-billion

    https://www.businessinsider.com/sequoia-capital-venture-capital-returns-university-of-california-2023-3

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/tiger-global-writes-down-venture-funds-bets-by-33-in-2022-3f9f6ade

    https://techcrunch.com/2023/03/13/y-combinator-cuts-nearly-20-of-staff-scales-back-growth-stage-investments

    https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1633570102326202368

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05742-0

    https://youtu.be/4lE8QWtrEvQ

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/03/desantis-ukraine-pro-russia-position-gop-presidential-nomination/673392

    🔑 Key Takeaways

    • Jason Calacanis prioritizes transparent communication and recognizes the need to adapt his style as his audience grows, while highlighting the importance of informing and alarming when necessary.
    • The current banking crisis was primarily caused by poor risk management and preexisting issues within the banks themselves, not by venture capitalists or depositors. Additionally, inflation and excessive spending during the COVID pandemic have influenced the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates.
    • Timely monitoring and addressing of issues in loan portfolios is crucial in the highly regulated banking industry, and government intervention and stimulus measures must consider the long-term consequences.
    • The Covid-induced economic shutdown has resulted in increased debt and challenges in sustaining the economy, with different parties sharing the blame. The global impact continues to be felt, and recovery measures are still underway.
    • The current banking system structure has negatively affected regional banks, leading to a lack of confidence and unequal distribution of funds. Reexamining regulations, focusing on risk management, and holding VCs accountable are crucial for restoring trust in the regional banking system.
    • Private markets, specifically venture capitalists, need to address the lack of disclosure and transparency, particularly when it comes to conflicts of interest with banks. Scrutinizing banking practices is crucial in avoiding potential failures and risks to the American banking system.
    • It is crucial to address the significant funding gap in top banks, as measures taken by the Fed only delay the problem. Implementing transparency and regularly marking holdings to market value could help mitigate risks and prevent further cracks in the financial system.
    • Implementing higher tax rates, focusing on productivity gains through technology and automation, and bifurcating banks into vaults and traditional banks can address financial system challenges while meeting consumer needs for secure payment solutions.
    • Consumers and small businesses should not be blamed or burdened for the failures of the banking system. Regulators and experts should take responsibility for assessing risks and protecting depositors.
    • Implementing real-time laws written in code could lead to a secure and transparent banking system that benefits consumers and supports economic growth and home affordability.
    • Exploring alternatives like money market funds and insured cash sweeps can help mitigate risks and protect deposits, highlighting the need for different strategies in preventing potential financial issues.
    • Startups should prioritize enhancing financial expertise and avoiding conflicts of interest in managing funds. Reforms in regulations and involvement of venture capitalists without conflicts can lead to better management and long-term success.
    • Despite current difficulties, there is reason for optimism in the venture capital industry, with corrected valuations, exciting AI innovation, and future vintages of investments expected to improve. Emphasize the importance of focusing on long-term strategies and a brighter future ahead.
    • Despite market decline, investors can capitalize on discounted stocks and align with product-driven, customer-centric founders for long-term success and attracting investment.
    • Superconductors have the ability to allow electricity to flow with no resistance, leading to more efficient energy transmission, reduced power consumption, frictionless transportation, and infinite battery storage with minimal energy loss.
    • The recent claim of achieving room temperature superconductivity, if proven true, could transform industries, making renewable energy more affordable and enhancing computing power efficiency.
    • Entrepreneurs must be aware of the variations in tech transfer deals and navigate the differences to ensure fair compensation and successful commercialization of technology. Private market participants play a vital role in scaling and funding projects.
    • Quantum modeling has the potential to unlock new superconducting materials, leading to exponential improvements in energy efficiency and computing power. Prioritizing research and development is crucial for transformative breakthroughs in technology.
    • It is crucial for the next administration to prioritize fiscal responsibility, effectively manage the budget, and leverage technological advancements to ensure responsible financial management and maximize potential benefits.

    📝 Podcast Summary

    Embracing Candid Communication in a Growing Audience

    Jason Calacanis stands by his mode of operating in the world, which is to always be candid and tell the truth. He acknowledges that the recent attention and tweeting from the podcast's besties have caused some confusion and misinformation. He expresses concern about the unprecedented situation of bank runs and the impact on the banking system. He emphasizes the importance of informing people and sounding the alarm when necessary. He also recognizes the need to adjust his communication style now that the podcast has gained a larger audience. Despite this, he firmly believes in his transparency and jokes as part of his messaging.

    The Banking Crisis: Causes, Consequences, and Misconceptions

    There is a growing banking crisis caused by a rapid increase in interest rates. This crisis has already led to the failure of several major banks, with hundreds of billions of dollars in deposits at risk. The blame for this crisis does not lie with venture capitalists or depositors, but rather with the banks themselves, due to their poor risk management and preexisting issues. It is important to note that the discussion about the crisis did not occur until after the banks had already started failing and the Federal Reserve had intervened. Therefore, any accusations of spreading panic or scapegoating are unfounded and not based on factual accuracy. Furthermore, the conversation highlights how inflation and excessive spending due to the COVID pandemic have played a significant role in the Fed's decision to raise interest rates.

    Examining the Role of Supervisory Failure and Regulatory Oversight in Bank Issues

    Supervisory failure and regulatory oversight have played a significant role in the issues faced by banks like Credit Suisse and First Republic. There has been a failure to monitor and address issues such as duration mismatching and potential losses in loan portfolios in a timely manner. The highly regulated nature of the banking industry calls for real-time monitoring and reporting of assets, liabilities, and risks. Additionally, the conversation highlights the ripple effects of shutting down the global economy and the need to address the consequences of government intervention and stimulus measures. The blame cannot be placed solely on the banks, but also on the lack of preemptive actions and regulatory measures.

    The Global Economy's Struggle and Ongoing Recovery Efforts Amidst Covid-19

    The global economy faced a massive blow when it shut down due to Covid, causing significant economic loss. The subsequent attempts to stimulate and recover from this blow have led to an increase in debt and created challenges in keeping the economy afloat. Various parties can be seen as having a share of the blame, including bank management for poor risk management, the Fed for a rapid rate tightening cycle, the Biden administration for increased spending and the denial of inflation's transitory nature, and the D Reg in 2018. However, it is difficult to pinpoint one party as solely responsible. The repercussions of this economic catastrophe are still being felt globally, and efforts to address it are ongoing.

    The Unintended Consequences of the Two-Tier Banking System and the Need for Regulatory Reform

    The structure of the banking system, specifically the two-tier system with systemically important banks and regional banks, has had unintended consequences for the regional banks. While the lighter regulation initially seemed appropriate for smaller banks, it has now led to a lack of confidence in them, causing money to flow towards the systemically important banks. To address this, it is important to reexamine the regulations and create a regulatory regime that instills confidence in the regional banking system. Additionally, while critics have blamed "wokeness" or ESG distractions for the crisis, it is clear that the banks' focus on these issues should not have come at the expense of risk management. Furthermore, there is a need to hold VCs accountable for their role in directing companies and depositing funds in certain banks, especially when there is a conflict of interest due to their relationships with the banks.

    Lack of Disclosure and Transparency in Private Markets: A Closer Look at Venture Capitalists and Banking Practices

    There is a lack of disclosure and transparency in private markets, particularly among venture capitalists. There are concerns about conflict of interest when VCs have investments in certain banks and direct startups to use those banks without disclosure. However, it is emphasized that not all VCs engage in these practices. The conversation also highlights the need for more scrutiny and examination of banking practices, especially in light of recent bank failures. The Federal Reserve's creation of a buyer of last resort facility is discussed, which allows banks to exchange their underwater assets for loans valued at a dollar. This program could potentially expose the American banking system to a minimum of $2 trillion in loans.

    Potential Financial Challenges and Risks for Top Four Banks

    There are significant financial challenges that lie ahead for the top four banks. The gap in funds needed to backstop these banks appears to be around 1,000,000,000,002 trillion. In order to repay this amount within one year, interest rates would need to be cut drastically, causing assets to inflate and potentially leading to another crisis down the road. It's important to note that the current measures taken by the Fed only delay the problem rather than solving it. Looking towards the future, suggestions include implementing a real-time dashboard that provides transparency on bank holdings and having a disclosure statement that marks holdings to market value regularly. Additionally, the underfunding of pension liabilities poses a major challenge, as many workers are expecting retirement benefits that are not adequately funded. This issue could lead to further cracks in the financial system.

    Possible Solutions to Address Challenges in the Financial System

    There are several ways to address the challenges faced by the financial system. One possible solution is to implement significantly higher tax rates in the United States to bridge the tension gap between productivity, capital markets, and demands from people. Another potential approach is to focus on extraordinary productivity gains through technology, AI automation, and the availability of cheaper energy. This could lead to a significant increase in productivity, enabling the economy to grow fast enough to meet liability obligations and overcome the debt bubble. Additionally, it is suggested that banks should be bifurcated into bank vaults and banks, with consumers having the option to use a bank vault service that solely focuses on safeguarding deposits, rather than allowing banks to use the money for other purposes. Ultimately, consumers desire a service provider that offers secure payment solutions and fulfills their specific needs.

    Protecting Consumers and Small Businesses from Banking System Failures

    Consumers and small businesses should not be held responsible for the failures of the banking system. David Sacks argues that when individuals open a checking account, they should not be seen as making a risky investment decision but rather as engaging a simple service. He believes that it is the responsibility of regulators, like the feds and Moody's, to evaluate the financial stability of banks and protect depositors. Blaming depositors for the shortcomings of the system is unjust, especially when experts and regulators also fail to identify risks. While there may always be some degree of risk in entrusting capital to others, consumers and small businesses should not bear the brunt of the consequences when the system fails.

    The Potential for Real-Time Laws to Transform the Banking Industry

    There is a need for a secure and transparent banking system that balances the role of banks as lenders and the protection of consumer money. While customers expect banks to use their deposits for lending, they are often unaware of their role as investors in mortgages. The current banking model, with its physical infrastructure and profit-driven approach, creates limitations in providing a completely safe and cost-effective solution. However, the conversation highlights the potential for regulators to enforce real-time laws that are written in code, allowing for greater transparency and oversight in the banking industry. This could lead to a more efficient and consumer-friendly system that supports economic growth and home affordability.

    Risks and Costs of Mortgage Packaging for Banks and Alternatives to Consider

    There are potential risks and costs associated with packaging and selling mortgages as a way to generate liquidity for banks. When banks sell parts of their loan portfolio, they may take a loss or pay a fee. Additionally, there is a concern that this practice could take a significant amount of cash out of the system, which is used to fuel purchasing through loans. The conversation suggests exploring alternative options like money market funds, where cash can be used to make investments and earn interest. There is also a discussion about mitigating risks through insured cash sweeps and potentially revising the FDIC limit to better protect deposits. Ultimately, the conversation highlights the importance of considering different strategies to prevent potential financial issues.

    The Need for Better Management and Regulation in Startup Treasuries

    The management of treasuries in the startup world needs to be more sophisticated and regulated. Both Jason Calacanis and David Friedberg express their concerns about the lack of financial expertise and conflict of interest in managing startup funds. They discuss the need for multiple brokerage accounts and the involvement of venture capitalists who do not have conflicts with banks. The conversation also highlights the challenges faced by venture capitalists in putting large funds to work due to uncertain valuations. This discussion points towards a need for regulatory changes and a reset in the venture capital landscape to ensure better management and long-term success for startups.

    Challenges and Optimism in the Venture Capital Industry

    The venture capital industry is going through a challenging period with many necessary resets and restructuring. However, despite the current difficulties, there are reasons for optimism. Valuations have corrected to some extent, and there is an exciting wave of AI innovation happening, offering new investment opportunities. While it may not feel great to be a VC at the moment, future vintages of VC investments are expected to be better. It is important for investors to separate themselves from emotions and focus on long-term strategies. The industry is going through a necessary process of working through past excesses and rewriting strategies from first principles. Overall, despite the difficulties, there is hope for a brighter future in venture capital.

    Investing in a Market Reset: Opportunities for Value and Growth

    Even though the market may be experiencing a reset and a decline in asset prices, it does not mean that the fundamental value of businesses has changed. In fact, it presents a great opportunity for investors to buy stocks at a significant discount and participate in the creation of real business value. While the past few years may have been filled with theatrics and inflated valuations, there is now a shift towards building MVPs and focusing on product-driven, customer-centric founders. This presents a reminiscent atmosphere of the early 2010s, where genuine progress and hard work stood out in the ecosystem. Therefore, for product-led and mission-driven CEOs, this is an advantageous time to attract investment and stand out in the market.

    The potential of superconducting materials to revolutionize industries and solve critical challenges in energy transmission, transportation, computing, and battery storage.

    Superconducting materials have the potential to revolutionize various industries and solve critical challenges in energy transmission, transportation, computing, and battery storage. Unlike regular conductors, superconductors allow electricity to flow with absolutely no resistance, resulting in no loss of power. This means more efficient energy transmission, reduced power consumption in microprocessors, and the ability to create frictionless transportation systems. Superconductors also have the potential to provide infinite battery storage, with minimal energy loss compared to chemical systems. While the current method of generating superconducting materials involves extreme cold temperatures, advancements have been made in developing ceramic superconductors that can function at higher temperatures, making their widespread industrial application more feasible.

    Potential Revolution: The Discovery of Room Temperature Superconductivity and Its Implications

    The discovery of a material that can superconduct at room temperature could revolutionize various industries. Superconductors have the potential to enable maglev trains, infinite battery storage, and superconducting microprocessors. Physicists and material scientists have spent years searching for materials that exhibit superconductivity at room temperature, but so far, no industrially viable solutions have been found. However, a recent paper by Rona Diaz claims to have achieved room temperature superconductivity using a unique metal and hydrogen gas. While Diaz's previous claims have been controversial and retracted, if his findings can be replicated and proven true, it could lead to significant advances. This discovery has the potential to transform industries such as transmission lines, battery storage, and computing, making renewable energy more affordable and increasing computing power efficiency. While the scientific community remains divided on the validity of Diaz's claims, room temperature superconductivity holds the promise of being a game-changing technology.

    Understanding the Complexities of Tech Transfer Deals

    Tech transfer deals between universities and entrepreneurs can vary significantly in terms of terms and conditions. Some universities have sophisticated tech transfer offices that follow standardized deals and royalty percentages, while others may lack the necessary expertise. Additionally, certain universities may have deep relationships with specific VCs and investors, potentially leading to non-transparent processes and favoritism. On the other hand, some universities may undervalue their intellectual property and give away rights without proper compensation. It is crucial for entrepreneurs to navigate these differences and understand the market-based approach necessary to commercialize technology. While fundamental research supported by academic institutions and governments is important, scaling and funding of projects should primarily come from private market participants.

    Quantum Computing: A Key to Advancements in Superconducting Research

    There is hope for advancements in superconducting research through the use of quantum computing. While superconductors have always been a promising concept, the physics behind them remains largely unknown. Quantum modeling could help bridge this gap and enable the discovery of new superconducting materials. The potential impact of such advancements is significant, with the potential for exponential improvements in energy efficiency and computing power. Additionally, the conversation touches on the wastefulness of past financial expenditures on wars and the importance of reconsidering the allocation of resources. Overall, the discussion highlights the potential for transformative breakthroughs in technology and the need to prioritize research and development in key areas.

    The Importance of Fiscal Responsibility and Technological Advancements in Financial Management

    Fiscal responsibility and controlling the balance sheet should be a priority for the next administration. The participants discuss the importance of paying down the debt to prevent inflation and emphasize the need for a president who can manage the budget effectively. They also mention the benefits of superconductors for AI, energy storage, and energy costs, highlighting the intersection of technology and finance. While some participants express their expertise in software investment, they all acknowledge the significance of maintaining fiscal discipline. Additionally, they engage in light-hearted banter about future events and personal experiences. Overall, this conversation emphasizes the importance of responsible financial management and the potential of technological advancements.

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    Follow on X:

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    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://www.pokernews.com/news/2024/05/phil-hellmuth-60th-birthday-bash-las-vegas-45984.htm

    https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1790130703721521305

    https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1790089513387143469

    https://crfm.stanford.edu/helm/mmlu/v1.3.0/#

    https://www.businessinsider.com/inflection-implosion-chatgpt-stall-ai-consumer-chatbot-problem-2024-3

    https://www.opencompute.org

    https://glue.ai

    https://ragie.ai

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    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/07/cnbc-exclusive-cnbc-transcript-billionaire-investor-stanley-druckenmiller-speaks-with-cnbcs-squawk-box-today.html

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2024/03/23/summers-inflation-reached-18-in-2022-using-the-governments-previous-formula

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1378034932006592512

    https://www.athenawow.com/jcal

    https://calacanis.substack.com/p/startup-productivity-in-the-age-of

    https://blog.google/products/search/generative-ai-google-search-may-2024

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    https://twitter.com/sama

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    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

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    Follow on LinkedIn:

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    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

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    Referenced in the show:

    https://twitter.com/EconomyApp/status/1622029832099082241

    https://sacra.com/c/openai

    https://twitter.com/tim_cook/status/1787864325258162239

    https://openai.com/index/introducing-the-model-spec

    https://twitter.com/SabriSun_Miller/status/1788298123434938738

    https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/bill-of-rights-transcript

    https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1788312545754825091

    https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/warren-buffett-just-sold-more-than-100-million-shares-of-apple-reason-why-is-eye-opening.html

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snbTCWL6rxo

    https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20240506PD216/apple-ev-startup-genai.html

    https://www.theonion.com/fuck-everything-were-doing-five-blades-1819584036

    https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-deepmind-isomorphic-alphafold-3-ai-model

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    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

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    Referenced in the show:

    https://twitter.com/fakechamath

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAr9oGSXgak&rco=1

    https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/20/opinions/sheryl-sandberg-something-we-can-all-agree-on/index.html

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    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/29/world/middleeast/israel-hamas-sexual-violence-un.html

    https://github.com/Profluent-AI/OpenCRISPR

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    https://wow.groq.com/12-hours-later-groq-is-running-llama-3-instruct-8-70b-by-meta-ai-on-its-lpu-inference-enginge

    https://twitter.com/lauramaywendel/status/1782040453266710551

    https://twitter.com/naveengrao/status/1781491370114633816

    https://twitter.com/winglian/status/1783456379199484367

    https://www.meta.ai

    https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1780302197772952049

    https://electrek.co/2024/03/16/tesla-full-self-driving-beta-v12-finally-rolls-out

    https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-cuts-price-full-self-driving-software-by-third-8000-2024-04-21

    https://fortune.com/2024/04/15/elon-musk-tesla-cut-10-percent-global-workforce-14000-employees-slowing-ev-demand

    https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-take-shareholder-vote-shifting-incorporation-texas-musk-says-2024-02-01

    https://www.ft.com/content/46aac746-4a54-437f-a0b7-9b81b154c21d

    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TSLA:NASDAQ

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/24/tesla-stock-up-after-elon-musk-says-new-affordable-ev-models-coming.html

    https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux

    https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1776663647735218491

    https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/IR/TSLA-Q1-2024-Update.pdf

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/25/gdp-q1-2024-increased-at-a-1point6percent-rate.html

    https://palmetto.com

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pja_n8ThDsU

    https://www.fastcompany.com/90972171/cruise-suspends-driverless-vehicle-operations-in-san-francisco-after-dmv-revokes-permit

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1777496946263134414

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/03/technology/cruise-general-motors-self-driving-cars.html

    https://thehill.com/business/4615452-ftc-votes-to-ban-non-compete-agreements

    https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2024/04/ftc-announces-rule-banning-noncompetes

    https://www.techemails.com/p/steve-jobs-emails-adobes-ceo

    https://venturebeat.com/business/how-steve-jobs-felt-betrayed-by-eric-schmidt-over-googles-android

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWOt9Cjq2mw

    https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/24/24139036/biden-signs-tiktok-ban-bill-divest-foreign-aid-package

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/senate-returns-95b-foreign-aid-package-ukraine-israel/story?id=109506150

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/06/tiktok-parent-bytedance-offers-share-buyback-at-268-billion-valuation.html

    https://www.theinformation.com/articles/bytedance-exploring-scenarios-for-selling-tiktok-without-algorithm?rc=pxkrxo

    https://www.aclu.org/press-releases/senate-reauthorizes-and-expands-section-702-surveillance

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1783220583075111401

    https://www.wsj.com/tech/tiktok-ban-chinese-owners-bytedance-1a857a06

    https://x.com/MsMelChen/status/1783524423963697262

    https://x.com/Jason/status/1783556155924705388

    https://x.com/Jason/status/1783604248569360516

    https://www.atr.org/biden-calls-for-44-6-capital-gains-tax-rate-highest-capital-gains-tax-since-its-creation-in-1922

    https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/131/General-Explanations-FY2025.pdf

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-24/tax-on-rich-to-save-social-security-popular-with-swing-state-voters-poll

    https://balajis.com/p/all-it-takes-is-all-you-got

    https://twitter.com/maceskridge/status/1783290784311058788

    Google fires protestors, NPR chaos, Humane's AI Pin, Startup tax crisis, sports betting scandal

    Google fires protestors, NPR chaos, Humane's AI Pin, Startup tax crisis, sports betting scandal

    (0:00) Bestie Intros: Chamath recaps the Breakthrough Prize Ceremony, "High IQ foods"

    (9:49) All-In Summit update, Poker styles of Andrew Robl, Jason Koon, and Phil Hellmuth  

    (14:38) Google fires protestors

    (35:08) Chaos and culture wars at NPR

    (40:43) Humane's AI Pin: Marques Brownlee's review, the Ex-Apple issue, polarizing reactions

    (1:02:28) Startup tax crisis: How a recent provision upended R&D deductions

    (1:12:39) Sports betting scandal: NBA player Jontay Porter banned for life, explosion of sports betting in the US

    (1:23:33) How to get better at chess, childhood Bestie schemes

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://twitter.com/NoTechApartheid/status/1780278895058518468

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/google-workers-arrested-after-nine-hour-protest-in-google-cloud-ceos-office.html

    https://www.notechforapartheid.com

    https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/17/24133700/google-fires-28-employees-protest-israel-cloud-contract

    https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1779914595156808045

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-04-11/ty-article-magazine/.premium/saying-what-cant-be-said-israel-has-been-defeated-a-total-defeat/0000018e-cdab-dba9-a78e-efef6ba10000

    https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-wins-gaza-battles-but-risks-losing-the-war-c6a3823f

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/19/middleeast/eisenkot-netanyahu-israel-war-politics-gaza-intl/index.html

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-APSXZy9UI

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/02/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-aid-workers-killed.html

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-03-31/ty-article-magazine/.premium/israel-created-kill-zones-in-gaza-anyone-who-crosses-into-them-is-shot/0000018e-946c-d4de-afee-f46da9ee0000

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-12-15/ty-article/.premium/israeli-army-says-killed-three-hostages-mistakenly-identified-as-threat-in-northern-gaza/0000018c-6edd-dbd5-a39c-ffff08470000

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/06/world/middleeast/israel-idf-soldiers-war-social-media-video.html

    https://twitter.com/JustStop_Oil/status/1580883249228046336

    https://www.npr.org/2024/01/24/1226035539/npr-ceo-katherine-maher-wikimedia

    https://www.npr.org/about-npr/178659563/our-mission-and-vision

    https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust

    https://www.npr.org/sections/npr-extra/2024/04/12/1244456600/from-npr-president-and-ceo-katherine-maher-thoughts-on-our-mission-and-our-work

    https://twitter.com/realchrisrufo

    https://twitter.com/wokal_distance/status/1780695504210567335

    https://www.theinformation.com/articles/has-humane-created-the-next-iphone-or-the-next-google-glass

    https://humane.com

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TitZV6k8zfA

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xWXRk3yaSw

    https://www.amazon.com/Anxious-Generation-Rewiring-Childhood-Epidemic/dp/0593655036

    https://www.amazon.com/Nexus-Trilogy-Book-1-ebook/dp/B00TOZI7FM

    https://www.amazon.com/Bad-Therapy-Kids-Arent-Growing/dp/0593542924

    https://www.wsj.com/sports/basketball/jontay-porter-banned-gambling-5dd9c1a8

    https://nypost.com/2024/04/17/sports/how-jontay-porter-orchestrated-failed-nba-gambling-scandal

    https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2024/1/31/24054415/lebron-james-joins-draftkings-football-sports

    https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/39563784/sports-betting-industry-posts-record-11b-2023-revenue

    https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38386013/how-nba-new-rules-resting-stars-work

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2huVf1l4UE

    E174: Inflation stays hot, AI disclosure bill, Drone warfare, defense startups & more

    E174: Inflation stays hot, AI disclosure bill, Drone warfare, defense startups & more

    Register for the All-In Summit: https://summit.allinpodcast.co

    (0:00) Bestie Intros: J-Cal is out this week!

    (0:57) All-In Summit 2024 Announcement

    (3:10) Nvidia's market position, Collapse of Western cities, State of the cloud market

    (17:30) Inflation stays hotter than expected for the third straight month: chance of a HIKE instead of a cut?

    (45:41) AI disclosure bill: important step for creators or unnecessary?

    (1:06:27) Drone warfare: The future of war, Silicon Valley's defense decision

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://summit.allinpodcast.co

    https://youtu.be/FgUKIRnxrxw

    https://laist.com/news/kpcc-archive/election-2014-prop-47-reduces-drug-and-property-cr

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/san-francisco-election-progressives-18699100.php

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/cpi-inflation-march-2024-consumer-prices-rose-3point5percent-from-a-year-ago-in-march.html

    https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-cpi-736

    https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733

    https://twitter.com/LHSummers/status/1778093870271664291

    https://www.wsj.com/economy/inflation-march-cpi-report-interest-rate-239b7e5e

    https://twitter.com/LHSummers/status/1762607548828360798

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2024/03/23/summers-inflation-reached-18-in-2022using-the-governments-previous-formula

    https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1778098007625572487

    https://www.city-journal.org/article/lisa-d-cooks-careless-scholarship

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/08/biden-will-announce-details-of-new-student-loan-forgiveness-plan.html

    https://www.livemint.com/news/world/bidens-4-5-trillion-spending-plan-faces-deficit-test-11619956141365.html

    https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1778479545613439455

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/01/the-us-national-debt-is-rising-by-1-trillion-about-every-100-days.html

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

    https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1777017715846455470/photo/1

    https://schiff.house.gov/news/press-releases/rep-schiff-introduces-groundbreaking-bill-to-create-ai-transparency-between-creators-and-companies

    https://schiff.house.gov/imo/media/doc/the_generative_ai_copyright_disclosure_act.pdf

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/billie-eilish-nicki-minaj-200-artists-sign-letter-against-ai-music.html

    https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/6/24122915/openai-youtube-transcripts-gpt-4-training-data-google

    https://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/jury-reaches-verdict-ed-sheeran-copyright-infringement-case/story

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xG1vOxwgqJw

    https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1774074927437475862

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-produce-one-million-drones-next-year-zelenskiy-says-2023-12-19

    https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-seven-drones-every-one-ukraine-has-army-official-2023-12

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/world/europe/ukraine-drone-russia-jamming.html

    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/missile-drone-pentagon-houthi-attacks-iran-00132480

    https://www.saildrone.com

    https://govciomedia.com/dod-seeks-to-grow-partnerships-with-silicon-valley-startups

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1249871/share-of-the-global-lithium-ion-battery-manufacturing-capacity-by-country

    https://www.militaryaerospace.com/power/article/14072339/emp-high-power-electromagnetic-weapons-railguns-microwaves

    https://www.allencontrolsystems.com

    https://www.allencontrolsystems.com/bullfrog

    E173: Google buying HubSpot? FTX depositors not made whole, AI job fears, Ukraine joining NATO

    E173: Google buying HubSpot? FTX depositors not made whole, AI job fears, Ukraine joining NATO

    (0:00) Meet All-In's new CEO: Jon Haile!

    (7:13) FTX Correction: Depositors are not getting "made whole"

    (19:26) Trump Media updates

    (27:12) Google considering bid to acquire HubSpot: Price, relevancy, feasible with regulators? Should Google investors be worried or excited?

    (49:20) AI job loss fears go mainstream, potential for autonomous domestic robots in next five years

    (1:11:17) Blinken says Ukraine will join NATO: WW3 risk, election implications

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/27/sbf-team-argues-for-5-6-year-sentence-ftx-customers-to-get-money-back.html

    https://www.axios.com/2024/02/06/ftx-repay-customers-creditors-investors

    https://www.reuters.com/technology/ftx-gets-court-approval-sell-crypto-assets-2023-09-13

    https://www.reuters.com/technology/ftx-expects-us-reduce-bankruptcy-claim-3-billion-5-billion-2024-03-21

    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DJT:NASDAQ

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/djt-truth-social-trump-media-stock-price-earnings-4ad7c458

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/djt-truth-social-trump-media-stock-price-today-d2249f43

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/03/trump-media-es-family-trust-2022-loans

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/03/business/trump-media-insider-trading-guilty.html

    https://twitter.com/mtaibbi/status/1619029772977455105

    https://nypost.com/2023/01/28/left-wing-think-tank-responsible-for-fake-russia-stories

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/google-parent-alphabet-weighs-offer-hubspot-sources-say-2024-04-04

    https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/HUBS/hubspot/revenue

    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/HUBS:NYSE

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/266249/advertising-revenue-of-google

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mergers_and_acquisitions_by_Alphabet

    https://ir.hubspot.com/news/hubspot-reports-q4-and-full-year-2023-results

    https://twitter.com/thedailyshow/status/1774995166778020059

    https://www.klarna.com/international/press/klarna-ai-assistant-handles-two-thirds-of-customer-service-chats-in-its-first-month

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2014/12/30/a-historical-look-at-the-components-of-u-s-gdp-1929-to-2011

    https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1983/06/02/issue.html

    https://m.imdb.com/name/nm0001394/mediaviewer/rm2226878976

    https://twitter.com/lina_colucci/status/1775668500931268665

    https://twitter.com/tsarnick/status/1748923998052975099

    https://twitter.com/Figure_robot/status/1767913661253984474

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1746964887949934958

    https://www.geckorobotics.com/company/robots

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1775926842257813910

    https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-great-risk-front-line-collapse-war-russia

    https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-ukraine-western-troops-remarks

    https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-ukrainian-foreign-minister-dmytro-kuleba-before-their-meeting-10

    E172: SBF gets 25 years, Trump's meme stock, RFK Jr picks VP, Biden's 2025 budget & more

    E172: SBF gets 25 years, Trump's meme stock, RFK Jr picks VP, Biden's 2025 budget & more

    (0:00) Bestie Intros: Late night poker snacks!

    (2:33) SBF sentenced to 25 years

    (16:41) Trump's meme SPAC: modern trading card, protest vote, or something else?

    (34:59) RFK Jr. selects Nicole Shanahan as VP

    (47:46) Biden's budget plan for 2025: how to confront America's existential crisis?

    (1:11:59) Science Corner: Why the price of cocoa has skyrocketed!

    (1:16:41) Movie talk and wrap!

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://www.reuters.com/technology/sam-bankman-fried-be-sentenced-multi-billion-dollar-ftx-fraud-2024-03-28

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/25/ftx-estate-sells-majority-stake-in-startup-anthropic-for-884-million.html

    https://coingeek.com/ftx-founder-sam-bankman-fried-sentenced-to-25-years-in-prison

    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DJT:NASDAQ

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1849635/000119312524036093/d408563ds4a.htm

    https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-121

    https://apnews.com/article/trump-media-gamestop-truth-social-meme-stock-666e62b4f3f788bd6276764056bc7c0d

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/18/business/melvin-capital-gamestop-short.html

    https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lau37c/we_can_stay_retarded_longer_than_you_can_stay

    https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/rfk-jr-to-name-nicole-shanahan-as-running-mate-for-presidential-bid-4b9a698e

    https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1773147897439436939

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/01/the-us-national-debt-is-rising-by-1-trillion-about-every-100-days.html

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bidens-2024-us-government-budget-is-also-campaign-pitch-2024-03-11

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/budget_fy2025.pdf

    https://manhattan.institute/article/the-limits-of-taxing-the-rich

    https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/09_effects_income_tax_changes_economic_growth_gale_sawick.pdf

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYONGDA188S

    https://www.oecd.org/tax/revenue-statistics-united-states.pdf

    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/inflation-chart-tracks-price-changes-us-goods-services

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USGOVT

    https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/investor-relations/larry-fink-annual-chairmans-letter

    https://www.kakaoplattform.ch/about-cocoa/cocoa-facts-and-figures

    https://www.movieposters.com/products/daliland-mpw-138836

    https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1773234188663054751

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1773240336292393144

    E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more

    E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more

    (0:00) Bestie Intros: Don't spoil Dune 2!

    (0:55) DOJ drops antitrust suit on Apple

    (23:36) Apple reportedly in talks with Google and OpenAI to power AI features on iPhone

    (32:17) NAR settlement: how it impacts residential real estate going forward

    (44:30) Microsoft's "Shadow Acquihire" of Inflection AI

    (48:43) How the besties would deploy $40B in AI as a sovereign wealth fund

    (1:01:57) Reddit IPO: is risk-on back?

    (1:07:17) Science Corner(s): Universe expansion, first pig kidney transplant in human, Neuralink

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow the pod:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.njd.544402/gov.uscourts.njd.544402.1.0_3.pdf

    https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-apple-monopolizing-smartphone-markets

    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-18/apple-in-talks-to-license-google-gemini-for-iphone-ios-18-generative-ai-tools

    https://www.macrumors.com/2023/10/11/google-pays-apple-billions-default-search

    https://venturebeat.com/ai/apple-releases-mgie-a-revolutionary-ai-model-for-instruction-based-image-editing

    https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1769751534940918234

    https://nypost.com/2024/02/26/business/google-to-relaunch-woke-gemini-ai-image-tool-in-few-weeks

    https://twitter.com/Patworx/status/1760189582870536408

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNv9PRDIhes

    https://www.nbcnews.com/business/real-estate/national-association-realtors-settlement-changes-rcna143634

    https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/realtors-settlement-change-buy-sell-homes-da45eb23

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-19/inflection-ai-plans-pivot-after-most-employees-go-to-microsoft

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-19/microsoft-hires-deepmind-co-founder-suleyman-to-run-consumer-ai

    https://inflection.ai/inflection-ai-announces-1-3-billion-of-funding

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/19/business/saudi-arabia-investment-artificial-intelligence.html

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/21/reddit-ipo-rddt-starts-trading-on-nyse.html

    https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-officials-still-see-three-cuts-this-year-0b039532

    https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/americas-office-fire-sale-has-barely-begun-0c8d376f

    https://www.foxweather.com/earth-space/nasa-webb-telescope-hubble-observations-universe-expansion-rate-question

    https://www.massgeneral.org/news/press-release/worlds-first-genetically-edited-pig-kidney-transplant-into-living-recipient

    https://twitter.com/neuralink/status/1770563939413496146

    E170: Tech's Vibe Shift, TikTok ban debate, Vertical AI boom, Florida bans lab-grown meat & more

    E170: Tech's Vibe Shift, TikTok ban debate, Vertical AI boom, Florida bans lab-grown meat & more

    (0:00) Bestie Intros!

    (1:02) Friedberg's newest family members

    (7:13) Tech's vibe shift: More candidness, less PR-speak from top CEOs

    (22:47) OpenAI CTO slips up on training data: did OpenAI train Sora on YouTube videos?

    (28:58) Vertical AI startups flourishing: Cognition launches Devin, what will this do to startups?

    (40:38) TikTok debate: Is the new bill to ban or force a sale of TikTok fair or potentially overreaching due to its vagueness?

    (1:22:10) Florida on the verge of banning lab-grown meat

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow the pod:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://twitter.com/RachaelRad/status/1767612555063955891

    https://twitter.com/iamtomnash/status/1768135725403226256

    https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1752749485070156025

    https://futurism.com/video-openai-cto-sora-training-data

    https://twitter.com/tsarnick/status/1768021821595726254

    https://www.harvey.ai

    https://www.abridge.com

    https://www.taxgpt.com

    https://sierra.ai

    https://twitter.com/cognition_labs/status/1767548763134964000

    https://twitter.com/heyBarsee/status/1767934812315062646

    https://sourcegraph.com/cody

    https://techcrunch.com/2023/06/27/vertical-ai-the-next-logical-iteration-of-vertical-saas

    https://vator.tv/news/2018-02-05-when-paypal-was-young-the-early-years

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/03/13/tiktok-ban-passes-house-vote

    https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/tiktok-bill-ban-house-vote-af4d0800

    https://rollcall.com/2024/03/14/schumer-signals-slower-pace-on-tiktok-measure-in-the-senate

    https://twitter.com/rabois/status/1768107160662421772

    https://www.linkedin.com/posts/vivekgramaswamy_were-literally-addicted-to-china-they-push-activity-7060229302633521152-k0g3

    https://time.com/6900348/tiktok-ban-donald-trump-congress

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-13/who-is-jeff-yass-15-billion-tiktok-fortune-at-stake-as-ban-passes-house-vote

    https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/7521/text

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_foreign_adversaries

    https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1753878721163882676

    https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1985-09-04-mn-23112-story.html

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/22/technology/byte-dance-tik-tok-internal-investigation.html

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/14/tiktok-ban-china-would-block-sale-of-short-video-app.html

    https://www.fastcompany.com/91056837/ron-desantis-and-the-florida-legislature-turn-their-anti-woke-agenda-on-lab-grown-meat

    https://standingstonefarms.com/pages/microbial-rennet-what-is-it-and-how-important-is-it

    https://twitter.com/Teslaconomics/status/1768395010507182252

    https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1768267464062943676

    https://twitter.com/Andercot/status/1768328460622299424