Treasurys Don't Always Fall When The Fed Cuts

For this nerdy episode of The Rate Guy podcast you can thank Nathan from Dallas for inspiring JP to fall down a jobs rabbit hole! We'll talk BLS, BEA, birth/death adjustment and dissect the overstated strength of the current job market challenging the "red hot" labor market narrative. We will also touch on what you may be overlooking when it comes to inflation. (hint, it's something we haven't seen since the financial crisis)

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On this episode of the Rate Guy we discuss the crazy email sent out to super users by the BLS, what we saw from the 10T last week and of course, much to J Mo's joy, inflation. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy you'll get some knowledge dropped on you about leap year date quirk and how it creates data challenges, a fun fact about Warren Buffet, and what everyone is keeping their eye on...inflation.  We discuss how January data is always hot and suggest pumping the breaks on the sky is falling outlook until we see more data. 

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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the inflation report from last week and what it means for Fed monetary policy and if inflation is accelerating. We also touch on how the latest data influenced the interest rate universe. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we explore the Fed's "Lower But Slower" strategy amid declining inflation and mixed signals from Fed officials on rate cuts. We discuss the drop in Core PCE inflation to 2.9% and its impact on anticipated rate reductions, contrasting with market predictions. Tune in as we navigate the cautious monetary policy landscape, analyze financial indicators, and assess the implications of tightening banking standards and global disinflation trends.

To read more or to see graphs check out the Pensford Newsletter :  https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/houston-we-have-a-liquidity-problem

On this episode of The Rate Guy we draw an interesting parallel between the challenges of parenting and the Federal Reserve's decision to end the Bank Term Funding Program. We analyze the latest inflation data, discuss what to expect at this week's FOMC meeting and the rationale behind what the Fed might do next.

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP stays on brand taking jabs at the NFL's latest dramas, with a special nod to the Cowboys' decisions that bring him so much joy.

We analyze the latest on treasury rates, Fed-speak, and what consumer sentiment reports reveal about inflation expectations. We also take a look at potential inflation scenarios and what they may mean for our economy.

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the odds of the Fed cutting in March, take a closer look at the 10 Year Treasury's ups and downs, and break down how the Bank Term Funding Program might play out. 

Happy 2024! On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about last week's jobs reports and the impact that is going to have on Fed policy this year, a few fun facts around jobs reports, like how many we need to add each month to keep pace with population growth and we explain a possible reason for the consistent monthly revisions that we're seeing.