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    Russia threatens to strike Nato trainers in Ukraine & understanding the Kremlin’s geopolitical strategy in Africa and Central Asia

    enJune 04, 2024

    Podcast Summary

    • Mint Mobile price drop, Ukrainian conflictMint Mobile lowers unlimited plan price to $15/month for new customers amidst ongoing Ukrainian conflict and inflation, while Russia continues to supply natural gas to Europe via Ukraine, causing significant fees and potential political tension

      Despite ongoing conflict and inflation, Mint Mobile is reducing the price of its unlimited plan to $15 a month for new customers. Meanwhile in the world news, there have been recent reports of Russian strikes causing injuries and damage in Ukraine, with power cuts expected throughout the country. The Institute for the Study of War reports that Ukrainian forces may have destroyed a Russian air defense battery in Belgorod Oblast. Russia continues to supply natural gas to Europe via Ukraine, with fees amounting to a significant portion of Ukrainian GDP. The upcoming Swiss peace talks on the war have seen the White House expressing the potential impact China could have, with China previously declining to attend without Russian participation. Russia has dismissed the talks as absurd without its involvement. Amidst these developments, France has reportedly been in talks with Ukraine about sending military instructors, but Putin's press secretary has stated that any instructors training Ukrainian troops have no immunity.

    • Baltic region tensionsRussia's actions in the Baltic region, driven by imperialist ambitions and legacy goals, have raised concerns about potential future military incursions or land grabs, while the Baltic States, wary of Russian revanchist tendencies, have experienced cyber attacks and historical tensions over Russian minorities, despite NATO protection.

      While Germany has provided weapons to Ukraine, there is skepticism about their practical impact due to their limited relevance to deep strikes or attacks on Russian territory. Meanwhile, Russia's actions in the Baltic region, such as border probing and remapping efforts, have raised concerns about potential future military incursions or land grabs, driven by Putin's imperialist ambitions and legacy goals. The Baltic States, former Soviet republics within the EU and NATO, have long been wary of Russian revanchist tendencies and have experienced cyber attacks and historical tensions over Russian minorities. Despite the NATO umbrella, there is a concern that Putin may push boundaries to test what he can get away with.

    • Russian aggression in Baltic regionRussian actions in the Narva River and military activity near Baltic countries borders have raised concerns among NATO members and Finland about potential Russian aggression, and Putin might challenge territorial integrity of Baltic States to test NATO's Article 5 commitment.

      The disappearance of Russian buoys in the Narva River between Estonia and Russia, and Russian military activity near the borders of Baltic countries, has raised concerns among NATO members and Finland about potential Russian aggression. The theory is that Putin might try to challenge the territorial integrity of these countries to demonstrate that NATO's Article 5 is not worth the paper it's written on. The Baltic States and Finland want their Western allies to take their concerns seriously but not to panic. They are monitoring the situation closely and believe Russia may be trying to keep everyone guessing with unexpected actions. The Finnish government has downplayed the situation, but the Estonian ambassador has emphasized the seriousness of the situation and the potential for Russia to undermine political and social consensus in support of Ukraine. A Swedish general has also suggested that Putin may have his eyes on the Swedish island of Gotland as a strategic move in the event of a Russian attack on the Baltics.

    • US involvement in Ukraine attacksAmerican approval for Ukraine to use US weapons against Russian targets in the Kharkiv region could significantly escalate the conflict, with potential targets including military concentrations, air bases, and command nodes. However, the scope is currently limited to defensive actions due to deconfliction concerns and escalation risks.

      The author, Roland, discussed the potential impact of the US authorizing cross-border attacks from Ukraine into Russia using American weapons. This author had previously written about possible Ukrainian targets and the significance of such strikes, focusing on the Kharkiv region. Prior to this announcement, many European countries had already given their approval for Ukraine to use their weapons in this manner. However, the crucial factor is the American involvement, as they provide essential technology such as HIMARS, Atacams, and air defenses. The Americans have the power to grant permission for these weapons to be used against Russian targets, making their involvement a game-changer. The predicted targets include concentrations of troops, air bases, and command nodes in the Kharkiv region. However, due to deconfliction concerns and potential escalation risks, the scope of these attacks is currently limited to defensive actions in the Kharkiv region and does not include long-range strikes into "mainland" Russia.

    • US intervention in Ukraine, Russian tax increasesThe US allows Ukraine to use Western weapons against Russian forces in a tactical intervention, while Putin plans to impose the largest tax rises on Russians since the 1990s, which could lead to social unrest

      The United States' decision to allow Ukraine to use Western weapons within Ukrainian territory against Russian forces is seen as a tactical intervention rather than a significant escalation of the conflict. This unspoken rule of the game has been in place for most of the fighting along the front line in occupied Ukrainian territory. The Americans have clarified that this change only applies to the Battle of Kharkiv and does not allow for long-range strikes against Russian infrastructure or cities. The Kremlin is likely to understand this signal, and it's unlikely to have a dramatic impact on the course of the war. In Russia, Vladimir Putin is planning to impose the largest tax rises on Russians since the 1990s as part of a wider effort to address the country's economic challenges. Putin's popularity rose in part due to his efforts to bring order to the Russian state, including tax reforms, after he came to power in 1999. However, the tax system remains complex, and Putin has introduced small adjustments to the flat tax rate over the years. The proposed tax increases are expected to affect both individuals and businesses and could lead to social unrest.

    • Russian TaxesRussian government announces new taxes affecting middle and upper class, aiming to raise £26bn annually from 2026, as part of larger strategy to support military efforts and maintain control.

      Russian President Vladimir Putin's government recently announced new tax bands, which will primarily affect middle and upper-class Russians, aiming to raise around £26 billion annually starting from 2026. Putin had previously campaigned for a progressive tax system during his election, but this new tax regime is seen as a significant increase for most Russians. This move comes as Russia shifts its economy towards supporting its military efforts in Ukraine and abroad, with military spending accounting for 7% of its GDP and a third of its government spending. The Russian government's actions are part of a larger strategy to impose Putin's mentality on the Russian people and to maintain control, as any dissent is met with severe consequences. Additionally, Russia is expanding its geopolitical influence in Africa by potentially establishing a military base in Sudan, which would give it more influence over the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. These actions reflect Putin's determination to project Russian power and maintain control in various regions, despite international criticism and economic challenges.

    • Russia-Central Asia relationsPutin's assertiveness on the global stage led to a warmer welcome in Uzbekistan compared to Cameron, while Zelensky's surprise appearance at Shangri La Dialogue failed to yield a meeting with China's defense minister, underscoring Russia-China collaboration and Zelensky's search for Asia's support for a peace summit.

      Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent state visit to Central Asia, particularly in Uzbekistan, was markedly different from the reception given to British Prime Minister David Cameron just a year ago. Putin was welcomed with a red carpet treatment, including a signing ceremony for a new nuclear power station, and this change in reception can be attributed to Putin's increased confidence and assertiveness on the global stage, following Russia's military actions in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise appearance at the Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore, where he had several bilateral meetings but did not meet with Chinese Defense Minister Dong Zhong, which could be seen as a snub given the close ties between Putin and Xi Jinping. The growing Russia-China collaboration on the global stage is a cause of concern for Zelensky, who is seeking Asia's backing for the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland. Overall, these developments highlight the shifting geopolitical landscape in Central Asia and the Indo-Pacific region.

    • Ukraine Peace SummitPresident Zelensky called for a peace summit amid ongoing war in Ukraine, but attendance from key countries like US and China is uncertain, and China is criticized for allegedly supporting Russia militarily while providing economic aid.

      Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a strong appeal for diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine during the Munich Security Conference, urging leaders from around the world to attend a peace summit in Switzerland. However, not all countries have confirmed their attendance, including the US and China. Zelensky publicly criticized China for not supporting the peace initiative and for allegedly providing military support to Russia, which Beijing denies. China has claimed neutrality in the conflict but has been providing an economic lifeline to Russia, which is subject to international sanctions. Germany's decision to allow the use of German weapons inside Russian territory was described as not an escalation by Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The war's outcome is closely watched by countries in Russia's near abroad, who adjust their policies based on the war's direction. The delivery of Taurus missiles to Ukraine, which some see as a potential escalation, is unlikely to happen.

    • Ukraine conflict strategyDespite efforts by European governments and the White House, a clear strategy for ending the Ukraine conflict or achieving victory remains elusive, allowing Russian influence to expand in the region

      Despite various actions taken by European governments and the White House in response to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, there seems to be a lack of a clear strategy for ending the war or achieving victory. This reactive approach, without a defined plan, has been noticeable since the beginning of the conflict. Additionally, Russian influence continues to expand in the region, as seen in Georgia's proposed ban on LGB propaganda and the withdrawal of Saudi Arabia from peace talks. These developments serve as reminders of the ongoing challenges and complexities in the situation.

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    Article Referenced:


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    Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jY2UD11kbmE



    Subscribe to The Telegraph: telegraph.co.uk/ukrainethelatest

    Email: ukrainepod@telegraph.co.uk



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    Chalke Valley History Festival: 

    https://www.chalkefestival.com/


    Scarborough Fair 29th 

    https://scarboroughfair.uk/performances/ukraine-the-latest-live/


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    Subscribe to The Telegraph: telegraph.co.uk/ukrainethelatest

    Email: ukrainepod@telegraph.co.uk



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    Ukraine: The Latest
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    Russia accused of beheading Ukrainian soldiers & Kim Jong Un signs ‘groundbreaking’ security pact with Vladimir Putin

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    David Knowles (Host). @DJKnowles on X

    Dom Nicholls (Associate Editor, Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

    Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

    Jimmy Rushton (Security Analyst). @JimmySecUK on X.


    You can read Jimmy's Substack here:

    https://jamesrushton.substack.com/


    Articles Referenced:


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    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/18/haunting-pictures-emaciated-ukrainian-prisoners-of-war/


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    Niall Ferguson: 'We’re All Soviets Now' (The Free Press)

    https://www.thefp.com/p/were-all-soviets-now


    To hear Francis on The Daily T, listen here:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/podcasts/


    Upcoming events:


    Chalke Valley History Festival: 

    https://www.chalkefestival.com/


    Scarborough Fair 29th 

    https://scarboroughfair.uk/performances/ukraine-the-latest-live/


    ==


    Subscribe to The Telegraph: telegraph.co.uk/ukrainethelatest

    Email: ukrainepod@telegraph.co.uk



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    Contributors:

    David Knowles (Host). @DJKnowles on X

    Dom Nicholls (Associate Editor, Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

    Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

    Andrew Todos from Zorya Londonsk, Ukrainian football expert. @zoryalondonsk on Twitter.


    To hear Francis on The Daily T, listen here:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/podcasts/


    Ukrainian Football video:

    https://x.com/uafukraine/status/1801319839153459390


    Telegraph report on Romania 3:0 Ukraine

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    Upcoming Events:


    Chalke Valley History Festival: 

    https://www.chalkefestival.com/


    Scarborough Fair (29th June): 

    https://scarboroughfair.uk/performances/ukraine-the-latest-live/


    Subscribe to The Telegraph: telegraph.co.uk/ukrainethelatest

    Email: ukrainepod@telegraph.co.uk



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    David Knowles (Host). @DJKnowles on X

    Dom Nicholls (Associate Editor, Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

    Joe Barnes (Brussels Correspondant). @Barnes_Joe on X.



    Hear 'Ukraine: The Latest' Live at the Chalke Valley History Festival:

    Tickets are available for our two talks on Thursday 27th June.

    https://programme.chalkefestival.com/talks-and-addons?date=2024-06-27


    Hear 'Ukraine: The Latest' live from Scarborough

    https://scarboroughfair.uk/performances/ukraine-the-latest-live/



    Subscribe to The Telegraph: telegraph.co.uk/ukrainethelatest

    Email: ukrainepod@telegraph.co.uk



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    Chalke Valley History Festival: 

    https://www.chalkefestival.com/



    Subscribe to The Telegraph: telegraph.co.uk/ukrainethelatest

    Email: ukrainepod@telegraph.co.uk


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    Ukraine: The Latest
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    Day 833.

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    Contributors:

    Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

    Dom Nicholls (Associate Editor, Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

    Liliane Bivings (Business Editor, Kyiv Independent). @LilianeBivings on X.


    Articles Referenced:


    'Putin has missed his chance to crush Ukraine' (Francis Dearnley in The Telegraph)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/11/putin-has-missed-his-chance-to-crush-ukraine/


    'Worst-case scenario in Ukraine’s energy system ‘very close to realistic,’ largest private energy company says' (Liliane Bivings in The Kyiv Independent)

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    'Russia lists abducted Ukrainian children on adoption sites' (Financial Times)

    https://www.ft.com/content/2d0013d2-a407-449f-b1e2-3d14fe65188f



    Subscribe to The Telegraph: telegraph.co.uk/ukrainethelatest

    Email: ukrainepod@telegraph.co.uk


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    Ukraine: The Latest
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    Contributors:

    Dom Nicholls (Associate Editor, Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

    Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.


    Articles Referenced:


    Ukraine Focus (which Francis was a guest of):

    To learn more about their work delivering ambulances to Ukraine, visit:

    https://ukrainefocus.org/ 



    'What if Putin Wins?' Essay Series:

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    'The West may not survive a Putin victory' (Francis Dearnley)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/04/west-may-not-survive-putin-victory/


    'China will take the mantle of world superpower from the US' (Matthew Henderson)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/03/china-biggest-beneficiary-russian-victory/


    'With Ukraine’s resources, Putin would be unstoppable' (Liliane Bivings)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/02/with-ukraines-resources-putin-would-be-invincible/


    'Putin's next conquests are already in his sights' (Dr Ivana Stradner)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/01/putins-next-conquests-are-already-in-his-sights/


    'Europe's fascist future awaits' (Dr Thomas Clausen)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/30/europes-fascist-future-awaits-if-putin-wins-in-ukraine/


    'Putin’s plot to destroy Nato is reaching its devastating climax' (Aliona Hlivco)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/29/putin-plot-to-destroy-nato-reaching-its-climax/


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    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/31/europe-see-the-worst-genocide-since-holocaust/



    Subscribe to The Telegraph: telegraph.co.uk/ukrainethelatest

    Email: ukrainepod@telegraph.co.uk



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    Ukraine: The Latest
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    Ukraine strikes Russia’s most advanced stealth fighter jet for first time & Ukraine's victory strategy

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    Day 831.

    Today, we bring you the latest military updates from the front lines, discuss the results and implications of the european elections, we speak to analyst Mykola Bielieskov on the lack of public discussion about Ukraine’s future strategy and what that might look like, and we hear from Foreign Correspondent Ben Farmer on Friday about his reports from the east of Ukraine.


    Contributors:

    David Knowles (Head of Audio Development). @djknowles22 on X.

    Dom Nicholls (Associate Editor, Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

    Joe Barnes (Brussels Correspondent). @Barnes_Joe on X.

    With thanks to Mykola Bielieskov (Research Fellow at National Institute for Strategic Studies under UA President & Senior Analyst at Come Back Alive Foundation) @MBielieskov in Z. And Ben Farmer (Foreign Correspondent). @benfarmerDT on X.


    Articles Referenced:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/10/european-elections-what-happens-now-macron-le-pen/


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/07/france-to-send-mirage-jets-to-ukraine-but-are-they-worth-it/


    https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/05/29/what-is-ukraines-victory-strategy-we-need-to-discuss-it-now/?w345


    Subscribe to The Telegraph: telegraph.co.uk/ukrainethelatest

    Email: ukrainepod@telegraph.co.uk



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    Ukraine: The Latest
    enJune 10, 2024