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    Nigel Farage is standing. Are the Tories in deep trouble?

    enJune 04, 2024

    Podcast Summary

    • Farage's political comebackNigel Farage's unexpected return to politics as Reform UK leader could potentially siphon votes from the Conservative Party, posing a significant challenge for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak during the ongoing UK election campaign

      Nigel Farage's unexpected return to politics during the ongoing UK election campaign is a significant development, especially for the Conservative Party, which is already facing the possibility of losing hundreds of seats. Farage, a former leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), seized control of Reform UK and announced his intention to stand as a candidate in the Essex seaside town of Clacton. This unexpected move came after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak suffered a double blow, with Nigela Farage's announcement and a poll suggesting that the Tories could lose votes to Reform UK in some constituencies. This development is significant because Farage's return to the front line of politics could potentially siphon votes from the Conservatives, making it a crucial moment for the party as it navigates the election campaign.

    • Farage's Political PowerNigel Farage's popularity and recognition have increased, making him a potential contender for a parliament seat in Clacton on Sea, due to the Conservatives' low polling and Labour's large predicted margin of victory.

      Nigel Farage, the former leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), has a better chance than ever before to be elected as a Member of Parliament, specifically in Clacton on Sea, due to the current low polling for the Conservatives and the large margin that Labour is predicted to win the next election by. This election cycle, Farage's recognition and popularity have increased, especially among young people who have seen a different side of him on reality TV shows. During his campaigning in Skegness, the contrast between Farage's grand entrance with an entourage and the solitary arrival of the leader of Reform Party, Richard Theiss, was striking and indicative of Farage's political power within the party. Despite Farage's denial of standing for election, the political dynamics and his strong showing in Skegness suggested otherwise.

    • Farage's Political AmbitionsPublic demand and support influenced Nigel Farage's decision not to run for Parliament in Clacton on Sea, indicating his potential ongoing political ambitions.

      Nigel Farage, the former leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) and a prominent figure in the Brexit movement, was heavily encouraged to run for Parliament in the Clacton on Sea constituency due to strong polling results indicating a large victory margin. Despite initial hesitation and public statements about not having enough time due to commitments in America, Farage was reportedly influenced by the public demand and support he received during his visits to the area. Ultimately, he decided against running, citing his ability to make a greater impact through his current activities. However, the circumstances surrounding his potential candidacy and the strong public support he received suggest that his political ambitions may not be fully retired.

    • Farage's Impact on ElectionNigel Farage's decision to lead a new party could significantly impact the upcoming election, potentially delivering them an extra 5 points in the polls and helping them reach the 'tipping point' needed to win seats.

      Nigel Farage's decision to stand for parliament and lead his latest party could significantly impact the upcoming election, potentially delivering Reform an extra 5 points in the polls and helping them reach the "tipping point" needed to win seats through the first-past-the-post system. Despite not being too bothered about being an MP, Farage wants to dominate the conversation and lead a party, which requires him to be on the pitch. Recent polls show that Reform may not win any seats currently, but Farage's presence could change that equation. The Conservatives will likely feel the "Farage effect" as he tries to succeed where he has failed in the past.

    • Farage's BetrayalNigel Farage's unilateral decision to stand down the Brexit Party in Conservative seats during the 2019 election led to a deep sense of betrayal among senior figures, resulting in a firm commitment from the Brexit Party to never again form a deal with the Conservatives.

      Nigel Farage's decision to stand down the Brexit Party in every seat where the Conservatives were contesting in the 2019 general election, following Boris Johnson's election promise to "get Brexit done," came at a cost. This decision was made unilaterally by Farage and was met with significant opposition from senior figures within the Brexit Party. The betrayal felt by these individuals, who had dedicated years to the party, led to firm assurances from Farage's successor, Richard Tice, that the Brexit Party would never again form a deal with the Conservatives. This history makes a second deal between the two parties challenging, as Farage now feels a personal sense of betrayal and a need to establish an opposition voice against a potential Labour government. Additionally, the Conservatives were relatively buoyant during the 2019 election, but the promises made to Brexit voters, such as control of borders and reduced immigration numbers, have not been met, further fueling Farage's opposition.

    • Farage's Impact on UK ElectionNigel Farage's return to politics with the Reform Party could lead to significant losses for the Conservative Party, potentially resulting in a historic Labour majority.

      Nigel Farage's return to politics with his new Reform Party could lead to significant losses for the Conservative Party in the upcoming UK election. With Farage's history of success in Clacton and his ability to attract voters away from the Conservatives, the Tories could lose dozens of seats, potentially leading to a historic majority for Labour. The next four weeks of the campaign are expected to cause mayhem for Conservative MPs, with some already calling for Farage to be brought back into the fold if the Reform Party is successful. However, Farage may not be interested in joining the Conservatives but instead looking to take them over or merge parties for the next election in 2029.

    • Conservative Party stance on ECHR and immigrationThe Conservative Party is under pressure to take a harder stance on the European Convention on Human Rights and immigration due to competition from Nigel Farage's Brexit Party, but the impact of Farage's efforts on the election outcome is uncertain.

      The Conservative Party is facing internal pressure to harden its stance on the European Convention on Human Rights and immigration, as some MPs and figures within the party feel the need to compete with Nigel Farage's Brexit Party. Farage, who feels the Conservative Party no longer represents his values, is campaigning to win a seat in Clacton and potentially disrupt the Conservative Party's chances in the election. However, it remains to be seen whether his efforts will yield any significant results, as the Brexit Party's polling has been inconsistent in the past. Despite the uncertainty, Farage has expressed his intention to throw all his efforts into this campaign and potentially retire from politics if he fails to make an impact. The outcome of this election could significantly impact the political landscape, and it will be important to monitor the developments closely.

    • British Election Shifts, Starmer's EvolutionKeir Starmer's transformation from a 'Corbyn in a suit' to a distinct leader in the British election scene is gaining attention, with reactions reported in Clacton and discussed on podcasts like Phone A Friend.

      The British election scene has seen significant shifts, with Keir Starmer evolving from a leader compared to Jeremy Corbyn to a distinct figure in his own right. Constance Kampfner reports on the reactions to this news in Clacton, which you can find at times.com with a subscription. In a previous episode, Manveen Rana explored Starmer's transformation from the "Corbyn in a suit" moniker to his current leadership style. The production team behind the podcast includes Barranca de la Dier as producer, Kate Ford as executive producer, and Mau Lisetteobrito for sound design and theme tune. For a lighter take, tune in to Jesse Crookshank's Phone A Friend podcast. In this popular comedy show, Crookshank discusses the latest pop culture news with guests like Dan Levy and members of NSYNC, all while incorporating his own personal boy band singing jingles. New episodes drop Thursdays on various podcast platforms. Acast supports creators in launching, growing, and monetizing their podcasts, enabling content like Phone A Friend to reach audiences worldwide.

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