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Turkish delight: influencing the new Syria

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January 31, 2025

TLDR: Discussion on how specific countries might leverage Syria's stability, impact of Trump's policies on the economy, and remembrance of Italian hermit Padre Pio.

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In the latest episode of The Intelligence from The Economist, hosts Jason Palmer and Rosie Bloor discuss the intricacies of the geopolitical landscape in Syria following the downfall of Bashar al-Assad. This moment signifies potential changes for the region, particularly for Turkey, which has substantial stakes and ambitions in the unfolding scenario.

The Stakes for Turkey

Turkey, sharing a 900-kilometer border with Syria, stands to gain immensely from a stabilized neighbor. The Syrian civil war has had significant repercussions for Turkey, such as:

  • Terrorist Attacks from various factions including ISIS and the PKK (Kurdish militia).
  • The influx of over 3 million Syrian refugees, creating social and economic pressures within Turkey.

Turkey's Strategic Interests

The desire for a secure and stable Syria aligns with Turkey's broader goals:

  • Containing Kurdish Autonomy: Turkey aims to stifle Kurdish independence movements that threaten its territorial integrity.
  • Rebuilding Influence: Historically, Turkey had dominion over Syrian territories during the Ottoman Empire, and Erdogan's administration seeks to regain that influence.
  • Economic Benefits: Erdogan's administration is keen on reviving Syria’s economy through trade and rebuilding initiatives, demonstrated by:
    • Turkish Airlines resuming flights to Syria.
    • Turkish businesses rushing to invest in Syrian markets.

Military Presence and Regional Dynamics

Turkey's military involvement in Syria is already substantial, which involves:

  • Occupation of Northern Regions: Turkish troops and allied Syrian militias occupy areas in Syria, especially after military offensives against Kurdish groups.
  • Support for Syrian Governance: Turkey has offered to assist in drafting a new Syrian constitution and training a new national army.

In light of HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) gaining control in Northern Syria, Turkey’s strategy must balance support for local governance while maintaining its own influence. HTS doesn’t see itself merely as a proxy and seeks broader support from various entities, including Saudi Arabia and even potential engagements with Iran.

Competing Interests in Syria

Tensions in the region have escalated with different countries vying for control and influence in Syria:

  • Saudi Arabia's Involvement: Saudi Arabia is stepping in as a humanitarian and economic backer, looking to replace Iran as Syria's main oil supplier, thus increasing competition with Turkey.
  • Concerns Among Arab States: Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt are wary of Turkey's growing role in Syria, fearing it could disrupt regional dynamics and possibly clash with Israeli interests.

The Israeli Factor

Tensions between Turkey and Israel complicate Turkey’s position further. Turkey perceives Israel’s support for Kurdish factions as a direct threat, while Israel fears the rise of radical groups backed by Turkey. Here are some noteworthy points concerning this rivalry:

  • Regional Power Dynamics: Should Turkey gain a strong foothold in the new Syrian government, it may lead to a confrontation with Israeli interests in the region, particularly in relation to the Kurdish issue.
  • Potential Outcomes: The future of Syria's stability holds vast implications for Turkey. A flourishing Syria could yield advantages for Turkey, but any resurgence of chaos could result in economic and political fallout for its government.

Conclusion

The podcast episode underscores the complexities of the Syrian situation and Turkey's ambition to reshape its influence in the region. With a focus on rebuilding and establishing control, Turkey's actions will significantly shape Syria’s trajectory, impacting not only its borders but also its relationship with other regional powers. As the episode elucidates, the stakes for Turkey are far-reaching and critical for future geopolitical stability in the Middle East.

Listeners are left with a comprehensive understanding of the geopolitical shifts, the interplay of regional politics, and the enduring consequences of the Syrian civil war as its aftermath unfolds.

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