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    The Slide Toward War in Lebanon

    enSeptember 25, 2024
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    The Daily

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    • Conflict EscalationA drastic escalation in the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict has led to significant civilian casualties in Lebanon, with increased airstrikes and attacks raising fears of a larger war.

      In recent days, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalated dramatically, marking one of the deadliest periods in Lebanon's history. After Israel targeted Hezbollah with airstrikes and assassinations, civilian casualties surged, causing panic and forcing thousands to flee. The situation became critical as previously confined skirmishes expanded into widespread violence, raising concerns about an all-out war. Political pressure in Israel has grown as civilians there sought safety from incoming attacks. The shift from limited border skirmishes to major assaults in Beirut sparked fears of further retaliatory actions from Hezbollah, indicating a perilous turning point in the long-standing region's conflict. The past week’s events, including high-profile attacks and extensive Israeli airstrikes, intersected with rising civilian casualties, driving home the fragility of peace in a volatile area.

    • Escalating ConflictIsrael is intensifying its attacks on Hezbollah due to perceived threats, with historical roots tracing back to the 1980s invasion of Lebanon and the formation of Hezbollah as a resistance group against Israeli military presence.

      Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have escalated recently, with Israel launching significant attacks on Hezbollah due to fears of its military capabilities. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu warned Lebanese civilians to evacuate areas near Hezbollah operations. This conflict roots back to an Israeli invasion of Lebanon in the 1980s, which led to Hezbollah's formation as a resistance group. Over time, Hezbollah gained strength, culminating in a major victory when Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000. As Israel now focuses on this longstanding threat, the situation might lead to further military actions, raising concerns over the safety of Lebanese civilians caught in the crossfire.

    • Hezbollah's RiseHezbollah's conflict with Israel escalated in 2006, leading to a devastating war. Though Lebanon suffered greatly, Hezbollah emerged strong, becoming a powerful political and military force that operates largely independently, challenging Israel's dominance and influencing Lebanese society.

      Hezbollah's actions against Israel mark a significant chapter in the ongoing conflict between these two adversaries. Following a provocative cross-border raid in 2006, a brutal war ensued, resulting in thousands of casualties. Despite Lebanon's devastation, Hezbollah emerged from the conflict with increased strength and status, portraying itself as a victor. They solidified their role in Lebanese society and politics, operating independently and providing services to their base. This has caused them to evolve into a powerful force within Lebanon, largely outside the control of the weak central government, while continuing their military ambitions against Israel.

    • Hezbollah's TransformationHezbollah rose to prominence in the Arab world after the 2006 war but damaged its reputation by intervening in regional conflicts, causing harm to fellow Arabs, while Lebanon faced a severe economic crisis.

      Hezbollah's performance in the 2006 war against Israel shaped its image as a powerful resistance force across the Arab world, gaining popularity and influence in the region. However, as they expanded their involvement in conflicts like Syria, their actions began to tarnish that image, as they were seen killing fellow Arabs. This shift in focus, coupled with the economic collapse in Lebanon, revealed challenges within Hezbollah. While initially viewed as heroes standing against Israel, their broader military engagements and the subsequent humanitarian impact led to a decline in their regional standing, highlighting the complex nature of their influence and the repercussions of their actions on their domestic reputation.

    • Hezbollah's StrugglesLebanon's electricity crisis has fueled discontent against Hezbollah and its allies, leading to protests. While trying to support Hamas following escalating conflicts with Israel, Hezbollah faces criticism and decreased support as many Lebanese question their involvement in this ongoing violence.

      Lebanon is facing a severe electricity crisis, causing widespread outrage toward the political leaders, including Hezbollah, who many blame for the country’s failures. Protests began in 2019, pushing to remove the corrupt ruling class. With recent conflicts between Hamas and Israel, Hezbollah has attempted to support Hamas but is struggling. They are responding with some attacks, but their effectiveness is questioned. Many in Lebanon are frustrated, feeling trapped in a war not of their making. Support for Hezbollah is waning both locally and regionally, as people are more concerned about the devastation brought on by their conflicts rather than mourning Hezbollah's losses. As a result, there’s anxiety about what the ongoing violence and potential escalation could mean for Lebanon's safety and stability.

    • Hezbollah's ChallengesHezbollah has been severely weakened by recent Israeli attacks, losing key leaders and struggling to respond. However, it's still premature to assume Israel has achieved its goal of incapacitating the organization, especially considering Hezbollah's access to resources in Lebanon and ongoing international diplomatic efforts.

      Hezbollah is currently facing significant challenges after recent attacks that have weakened its leadership and organizational structure. Key leaders have been lost, and the group seems to be struggling to respond to Israeli military actions. Arguments have been made suggesting that Israel could potentially achieve its goal of incapacitating Hezbollah, but it's still uncertain. In contrast to Hamas, which is trapped in Gaza, Hezbollah has more access to resources and logistics in Lebanon, which complicates efforts to fully eliminate the group. While significant damage has been inflicted, it's too early to declare Hezbollah's defeat. Meanwhile, international efforts continue, with President Biden emphasizing the need for diplomatic solutions while recognizing the complexities of the situation in the Middle East, including the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Overall, while Hezbollah is damaged, its fate and Israel's success in neutralizing the threat it poses remain unclear.

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