Contrasting Perspectives: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump represent differing views on climate change that could shape global actions. Additionally, Alex Bellos highlights how easy it is to go wrong with assumptions in puzzles, urging listeners to think critically about reasoning and perspectives.
The podcast features contrasting views on climate change from Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, affecting global climate actions as one of them leads the significant fossil fuel producer. Additionally, the conversation shifts to a fun puzzle presented by Alex Bellos, highlighting how our assumptions can mislead us. For instance, in a scenario involving Jack, Anne, and George, many think there’s not enough information to determine if a married person is looking at an unmarried one. Surprisingly, the majority answer incorrectly, showing how easily we can make errors in reasoning. This illustrates the joy and complexity of puzzles while encouraging us to tackle challenges with new perspectives, reinforcing the idea that even simple questions can involve tricky thought processes. Emphasizing critical thinking, the podcast promotes engaging with numbers, presents diverse global viewpoints, and plays with the whimsical nature of puzzles, encouraging learning from mistakes.
Cognitive Reflection: Puzzles can mislead us into hasty conclusions, showcasing the need for careful reasoning. Both Anne and the ages of Aaron and Betsy demonstrate how critical thinking is essential to solving problems correctly, rather than relying on gut reactions or assumptions.
Puzzles often challenge our assumptions, leading us to overlook simple truths. In the case of Anne, Jack, and George, the marital status of Anne is irrelevant to determining if a married person is looking at another married person. The reasoning is straightforward: regardless of Anne’s status, the relationship holds true. This illustrates how our quick, intuitive thinking can mislead us, especially in seemingly simple problems. Another example with Aaron and Betsy shows how jumping to conclusions can lead to mistakes. People tend to calculate quickly without fully analyzing the information given. Taking a moment to rethink can reveal the correct solution, emphasizing the importance of careful thought and reflection rather than rushing to conclusions. Understanding these puzzles not only improves our problem-solving skills but also highlights human cognitive patterns in tackling challenges.
Cognitive Bias: Simple math problems can confuse even educated people. The bat and ball puzzle shows that many get the answer wrong. This indicates that education doesn't always ensure clear thinking, and highlights why misinformation can still mislead individuals. Critical thinking skills are crucial.
Many people struggle with simple math problems, like the bat and ball puzzle where a bat costs $100 more than a ball that together cost $110. Even when the correct answer, $5 for the ball, is provided, some still get it wrong. This shows that education level doesn’t guarantee correct reasoning and highlights how cognitive biases affect decision-making. Various studies have explored why people make such mistakes, particularly in situations involving misleading information. This insight is valuable for understanding how misinformation can spread, illustrating that critical thinking is not always a given, regardless of academic background. Behavioural scientists, like Shane Frederick, have been investigating these errors to better understand how our thought processes work and why even highly educated individuals can fall prey to basic misconceptions. It emphasizes the need for enhancing our reasoning skills to combat misinformation.
Critical Thinking: Cognitive reflection skills are better predictors of spotting fake news than education or IQ. Taking time to think critically improves decision-making, as shown by puzzles like the hen and egg problem, which reveals how our first instinct can sometimes be misleading.
Research suggests that better education or higher IQ does not necessarily guarantee the ability to spot fake news. Instead, a person's cognitive reflection ability is more closely linked to their success in discerning truth from falsehoods. Taking a moment to reflect and think critically, rather than reacting emotionally, can help anyone understand and solve problems like how eggs are produced by hens. For example, the riddle about hens and eggs reveals that two hens can lay two eggs in just one day, contrary to the intuitive but incorrect answer many might give. This indicates that the ability to overcome partisan thinking and to be more logical can improve our judgment in discerning what's real versus what's fake.
Puzzles and Perspectives: Solving puzzles can be challenging but rewarding, like calculating that six hens together will lay 24 eggs in six days, or exploring how different political leaders can influence climate change. Collaboration and critical thinking are key to finding answers and addressing complex global issues.
Solving puzzles can be tricky but also rewarding. For example, the conversation shows how to figure out how many eggs six hens can lay in six days. Each hen lays an egg every one and a half days. After some calculations, it turns out that all six hens together will lay a total of 24 eggs, which is two dozen. It's great to see collaboration and thinking through challenges as a group can lead to finding the right answers. This kind of problem-solving can be applied to different situations in life, encouraging careful thinking and calculations. Moreover, such discussions often connect to larger topics, like the debate over climate change. Different opinions from leaders like Kamala Harris and Donald Trump reflect broader issues that impact the environment and global policies. Their perspectives could shape the future of climate action significantly, showing how diverse thoughts can lead to important decisions.
The puzzles you’re meant to get wrong
More or Less: Behind the Stats
970 Episodes
Recent Episodes from More or Less: Behind the Stats
The puzzles you’re meant to get wrong
Why do some puzzles make us immediately leap to the wrong conclusion?
That’s the subject of Alex Bellos’ new book Think Twice, which has page after page of questions designed to deceive.
Alex sets Tim Harford some of his favourite puzzles.
Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison and Janet Staples Sound mix: Donald MacDonald Editor: Richard Vadon
Could the winter fuel cut cost more than it saves?
The government is encouraging pensioners to claim pension credit in order to remain eligible for winter fuel payments. Will people sign up - and might that end up costing the exchequer more than it saves?
The Office for National Statistics has downgraded the status of a new statistic aiming to measure how many people are transgender. What went wrong?
Cancer appears to be on the rise in people under 50. But are more people dying?
And try your hand at a puzzle you’re likely to get wrong.
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Natasha Fernandes and Bethan Ashmead-Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon
Do 85% of the world’s population practice a religion?
We don’t usually do god on More or Less, but one listener got in touch to ask us to investigate a stat used by an Anglican priest on a BBC radio programme.
Speaking on the “Thought for the Day” slot, Reverend Lucy Winkett said that around 85% of the world's population practice a religion.
Is this true? We speak to Conrad Hackett, from the Pew Research Center, and the person whose research is the source for the claim.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Natasha Fernandes Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon
How do you count millionaires?
Can we be sure that thousands of millionaires are leaving the UK? How much do asylum seekers cost the state? Who will win a geeky bet on private school pupil numbers? What does a string quartet teach us about the woes of the National Health Service?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Caroline Bayley, Natasha Fernandes and Bethan Ashmead-Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon
Nate Silver: Do risk-takers run the world?
Big stakes poker player and elections analyst Nate Silver is no stranger to a calculated risk.
In his new book, On The Edge, he makes the case that people willing to take massive calculated risks are winning in the modern economy.
Tim Harford talks to Nate about the mindset that’s driving hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and silicon valley investors.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon
How long does it take to turn around an oil tanker?
Do illegal migrants receive more in benefits than pensioners? Was Energy Secretary Ed Miliband right to celebrate a “record breaking” renewable energy auction? Is one divided by zero infinity? Why don’t we spend more on evidence that government spending works? And how long does it actually take to turn around an oil tanker?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Natasha Fernandes, Bethan Ashmead-Latham and Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon
Who pays when trade wars heat up?
Donald Trump wants new tariffs on goods coming into the US, describing them as a tax on other countries. The Democrats are no stranger to trade tariffs themselves, with Joe Biden having added them to numerous goods coming into the US from China.
We talk to Erica York from the Tax Foundation about how tariffs work and who ends up paying for them.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Kate Lamble and Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Steve Greenwood Editor: Richard Vadon
Exclusions, black holes and dividing by zero
Do half of children in Wales have special educational needs? Are permanent exclusions at the highest ever level in England? Labour are talking about a £22bn black hole. Is that a new black hole in the finances? Are there more Ghanaian nurses in the UK than in Ghana? Can you divide one by zero?
Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Kate Lamble and Nathan Gower Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Andy Fell Editor: Richard Vadon
Where have Cuba’s people gone?
The Cuban government has announced that their population has fallen by 10% in two years – just days after a demographer on the Caribbean island suggested an even bigger fall.
But which is the right number, and why are so many people leaving?
We speak to Dr Emily Morris from University College London and Dr Jorge Duany from the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University.
Presenter: Kate Lamble Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sue Maillot Editor: Richard Vadon
Do we eat a credit card's worth of microplastic each week?
The claim we all swallow 5.5 grams of microplastic each week – the same as the weight of a credit card – has been repeated by charities, newspapers and the World Economic Forum.
But when you understand how this number was calculated, and the range of possible answers for the amount of plastic you eat, you might not want to repeat it yourself.
Professor Jamie Woodward from the University of Manchester explains what’s what.
Presenter: Kate Lamble Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Researcher: Ajai Singh Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon