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    Smoking and driving get earnings applause

    Philip Morris International shows strength in internal combustion engines amid GM's struggle, but faces weakness in China. Discussion also includes IMF's outlook on global growth.

    1
    enOctober 22, 2024
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    This episode of Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch delves into the significant earnings reports from two unlikely sectors – tobacco and automobiles – whose results defied expectations and garnered notable attention. Host Kim Khan navigates through the key highlights of the episode, summarizing vital information and insights on companies including Philip Morris International (PMI) and General Motors (GM), economic forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and emerging trends in retail.

    Key Earnings Highlights

    Philip Morris International (PMI)

    • Revenue Growth: PMI reported a 8.4% year-over-year increase in revenue, totaling $9.91 billion. On an organic basis, the increase was even more impressive at 11.6%.
    • Earnings Per Share (EPS): The EPS of $1.91 surpassed consensus expectations significantly, showing growth from $1.67 a year ago.
    • CEO Insights: CEO Yasek Ultrück attributed the positive performance to broad momentum across all regions, including higher sales in emerging markets and strong demand for their non-combustible products, such as ZYN.
    • Future Outlook: PMI raised its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to between $6.45 and $6.51, indicating optimism backed by anticipated 9.5% organic revenue growth.

    General Motors (GM)

    • Strong Internal Combustion Performance: GM's earnings were buoyed by a robust internal combustion engine (ICE) segment, which constitutes over 80% of its US market share, effectively countering struggles faced in China, where market shares dipped.
    • Financial Adjustments: Despite losing $137 million in the Chinese market due to inventory issues and aggressive incentive pricing, GM increased its profit forecast for 2024 to between $14 billion and $15 billion.
    • Cash Flow Improvement: The projected automotive free cash flow was also revised upwards, now expected at around $12.5 billion to $13.5 billion.

    Economic Insights from the IMF

    • Global Growth Outlook: The IMF has lowered its 2025 global growth forecast, while maintaining the 2024 outlook at 3.2%.
    • Challenges Ahead: Analysts expressed concern over potential economic pitfalls stemming from geopolitical tensions and trade protectionism that could exacerbate market volatility and inefficiencies.
    • Notable growth revisions were made for countries such as Brazil, Spain, Russia, and the UK, while Mexico and Japan saw downgrades.

    Retail Innovations: Walmart's Prescription Delivery

    • Service Launch: Walmart announced a new prescription delivery service, which aims to offer deliveries within 30 minutes for Walmart Plus members. This service is set to cover 49 states by January and will integrate prescriptions with grocery orders, responding to consumer preferences.
    • Customer Feedback: In feedback, 55% of Walmart customers indicated the desire for integrated grocery and pharmacy services, indicating a shift towards more convenient retail solutions.

    Market Sentiment and Predictions

    • Goldman Sachs Insights: Goldman Sachs analysts predict a more favorable landscape for income investors than currently reflected in market pricing, projecting an S&P 500 dividend per share (DPS) of $80 by 2025. This suggests a growth trend in dividends which is encouraging for potential investors.
    • Investment Strategy: Analyst David Causton emphasized the importance of looking at dividend yields and growth stocks, spotlighting names in their forecast such as eBay, Molson Coors, and IBM.

    Conclusion

    The episode encapsulates a unique moment where traditional sectors like tobacco and automobiles show resilience and potential for growth amidst a constantly evolving economic landscape. The insights on PMI and GM highlight a complex interplay between domestic performance and international challenges, while the IMF's outlook underscores the wider economic uncertainties. Furthermore, Walmart’s innovative approach to retail illustrates how adapting to consumer needs remains vital in today’s market. Overall, this episode serves as an essential resource for understanding current market dynamics and investment opportunities.

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