This podcast is brought to you by Australia's LGBTQIA Plus Community Media Organisation, Joy. Keep Joy on air by becoming a member, a subscriber or donate. Head to joy.org.au. Joy, a diverse sound for a diverse community. From Joy, 94.9, this is Saturday Magazine.
And today we come to you absolutely live from the Victorian Pride Centre in Melbourne in this joy's 31st year. This is your Saturday magazine, Joy 94.9's longest-running news, current affairs and comments show. Since 1996, I'm Macke, my co-host is the Balkan bombshell, Nevinna Spirozka, Paul's on panel,
Uh, our production assistant Tom is on the front desk and our podcast to James is listening in. Good morning, Nevin. And now let's get the show right on the road because we actually have online.
who's about to flee the country. John Judas, accomplished journalist commentator, author. He's been in Australia for the last few weeks, sharing his views and his opinions, not always specifically about the US elections, but he's most recently written an opinion piece in the New York Times. Good morning, John.
Good morning to you. Just first off, I just quickly before we get into the politics of it, you've been in Australia a few weeks. What's the highlight of your visit to Australia? Well, I was here four weeks doing election commentary and my wife and I have taken the last week as a kind of vacation and we went to Tasmania and I'd say the visit to the Museum of the Old and New was our highlight.
Were there any particular paces that took your interest, Joan? The one about Burke and Will's and being buggered by a dog. No, I liked it. I liked that. I liked a lot of it. I thought, I mean, what I liked about it in particular was the juxtaposition of ancient stuff with modern stuff, because it made me see the brilliance of the Egyptian door and, you know,
Nigerian relic or antique that I, that I wouldn't see if I went to the British Museum or something. It would just seem all like the same. So yes, that was, that was, I think that was really the highlight. Well, I suppose a bit of a segue, John, in politics, they say the scene doesn't change only the actors. Donald Trump has won a convincing victory. He won the popular vote. They've won the House. They've won the Senate.
He won the Electoral College. A word that I find difficult with in talking about Donald Trump is that he is legitimately the president. The coalition that he's built, you've written a little bit about this. The coalition that he's built, is that coalition going to last? Or is it going to go the way of the Barack Obama coalition which basically deserted Harris?
Well, we'll have to see. I've constantly underestimated Trump over the years, except during the original primary one, I did think he was going to win. His fervent supporters constitute maybe 20 to 25% of the electorate.
Let's say 20% more people who didn't like Kamala Harris or were traditional Republicans or had other grievances. The problem I see with Trump governing now is that he's really equated his most fervent supporters, his make America great again supporters with the electorate itself and with the majority who elected him.
and that you know that's a very dangerous and wrong presumption and you're seeing it already in the rejection of math gates is as this attorney general i mean his picks have been pretty much uh... you know all off a limb i mean they've been kind of loony i mean i think you have
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. the guy who doesn't want kids vaccinated. As well as the guy who's secretary of defense, as well as Tulsi Gabbard. It's a pretty nutty collection, but I think
It again results from his seeing himself that the people who went to his rallies and shouted, build the wall or lock it up now represent a majority in America. And they believe me, they don't.
John, your article is called, Trump called his win, a historic realignment of US politics, we have our doubts, in which you express skepticism about Trump's claim about this historic realignment in American politics. Could you please elaborate on what specific policies or political dynamics you believe are necessary for such a realignment to be truly sustainable?
Well, I don't think that we're going to have a realignment of that kind in America. I mean, what we have is not something that's necessarily permanent, but we have the coalitions themselves changing.
uh so that many many members of uh what what that we call the working class which pollsters identify as people who haven't graduated from college but that's you know that's again a rough approximation have gone over to the republican party and many
college graduates and particularly people with postgraduate degrees have gone over to the Democrats. But the two sides are pretty equal and they've exchanged power now for, you know, since almost 1992, you could say, or even 1988.
And I don't see any signs that that itself is going to change and you're going to see something like a permanent long-term Trump coalition happening. And to see why, I mean, the first thing I'd say is what I just said, that Trump himself, how he appears to want to govern.
The second thing is that the coalitions in America are very heterogeneous. Let's say something like tariffs or electric cars, his biggest financial supporter is Elon Musk and he's on the other side of both those issues.
Treasury Department, it looks like he's going to appoint somebody who also was skeptical of some of his own trade, trade policies. So you're going to get these kind of same kind of conflicts that you saw in the first Trump term. I mean, the main difference I think is going to, it looks like he's going to have fringy people who are going to really create a wreak havoc.
You know, it's something like, again, someone like Robert F. Kennedy and people who think climate change is a hoax and things like that. And that's not the majority view of the American electorate.
there's a good chance that in 2020 what is it now 2026 we'll see a rebound of the democrats and maybe even in 2028 a democratic president but again that coalition also is pretty unstable so yes you mentioned there 2026 which is the midterms and
Lots of presidents have had nasty frights in those midterms. I'm interested the Supreme Court. You know, there are rumors or perhaps hopes that the Supreme Court justice with the motorhome, what's his name? Clarence Thomas. Clarence Thomas, yeah. That he might step down or that perhaps one other
So Trump potentially is going to have the opportunity in the next four years to appoint one or perhaps two Supreme Court justices, which is going to further increase the conservative majority there, and also the oversight of governance by the judicial branch. How does that concern you, John?
Well, that concerns me, but you have to recognize that the two most conservative justices on the Supreme Court were not appointed by Trump. Samuel, Alito, and Clarence Thomas. And the people that Trump did appoint are not great, but again, they've shown some spine in terms of
election cases and things like that. So I don't know. I don't know how that's going to come out. I mean, there's a kind of right-wing principled position or center-right principled position that he might appeal to. So I'm not sure. I don't think those two people stepping down will necessarily change the composition of the court.
Our guest, Dean Smith, is actually would like to ask you a question, John. So be careful. He's a politician that's bound to have multiple meanings. I was good morning to you, John, and I'm very, very interesting to hear your description. The thing that I always like to draw attention to is the compulsory
voting nature of Australian politics compared to the voluntary voting nature of American politics. And what you can tell us about the participation rate at this particular election, which I understand to be at about 63%, which is I think about the same as the 2020 poll.
Right. You know, and I trade your system for ours any day of the week. I mean, we have states that have same day registration for voting, like Oregon, where they get a pretty high turnout. But, you know, with some of the states, it's a kind of even leftover from the 19th century. It's more difficult to register to vote. It's not that easy. And so,
I'm not surprised, again, that our percentages hover around the low 60s. So these two elections have had higher turnout than some of the previous. John, am I writing thinking you were present in Australia for the election result?
Yes, there was. And what is your perception and reflection about the fact that many Australians seem to be publicly identifying as Trumpian or MAGA and really aligning themselves with that particular political movement? How does that feel as an outsider seeing that politic reflected to your home country?
Well, I'm not sure what to say to that. I mean, I was a guest of the Center for Independent Studies. And some of the people in the audience were in favor of Trump. But the discussion was so much more civil than it is in the United States. I mean, the degree of anger and polarization in America is pretty scary.
And I can't, you know, I've been going to hotels and stuff like that. So what can I, what do I know about Australian politics? But from my experience, it's not that you just don't have the boiling point that we've reached and I hope you never will. Do you think, John, that
You know the participation of people voting in America and the difficulty in people registering to vote in a lot of states. In Australia we have one system which basically is the same in each state and territory and federally. We don't have
a different electoral system in every county, in every city. Do you think that's ever going to change in America or is there a vested interest in keeping the system perhaps a little bit broken?
No, I don't think it's ever going to change because the system itself was born out of a compromise between small states and big states in the 1780s and in order to change it You would have to convince a lot of small states to give up some of the power they have because of our electoral system So I doubt whether that's ever going to happen
Dean's got another question for you, I think. One of the narratives that I've been quite drawn to is this idea that American voters were rejecting the status quo, that the economy was top of mind, they were looking for significant change and just a big rejection of
of the status quo? How relevant or powerful is that narrative? And I'm sure you might have heard it in your readings. Well, you know, I thought on domestic policy Biden was very good. But that's my perception. On foreign policy, I had my doubts. But he was always a good political insider. But he is not a good political
the outsider. His public presence was very weak. And I think that allowed the opposition to paint some of his failures as larger than they might otherwise have loomed.
immigration, really his, you know, his polling, his approval rates started to go down with the botched Afghan withdrawal, his first year. That's when you all of a sudden start the lines between approval and disapproval for us. So, again, that's part of it. Also this, something that I don't fully understand is the continued effect of the COVID pandemic on Americans and on our
our politics. Unfortunately, John, we're out of time and I know you've got a lot planned for today. I really want to thank you for taking the time to talk to us. I'm so glad you enjoyed your time in Australia. You're always welcome to speak with our listeners on Saturday magazine and I hope we get to do so in the near future.
My pleasure. Great to be here. Thank you very much, John. You have a great day, John. Save travels. You are on Saturday magazine, Joy 94.9 with Macca and Nevena. Dean Smith, Senator for Western Australia for the Coalition is in the studio. Stay with us. There's more.
Thanks for listening to another Joy podcast brought to you by Australia's LGBTQIA Plus Community Media Organisation. Joy, help keep joy on air. Head to joy.org.au. Joy, a diverse sound for a diverse community.
