Running the numbers on deportation, interest rates and math
en-us
January 31, 2025
TLDR: Discussion on why US 8th grade math scores haven't recovered, whether ICE has resources for promised deportations, and the path of interest rates in the Trump economy.

In this episode of the Indicator from Planet Money, hosts Waylon Wong and Darien Woods, alongside their guest Amanda Ronchick, dive into a range of current economic indicators, focusing on the interplay between deportation costs, recent changes in interest rates, and the troubling state of American math education.
Key Discussion Topics
1. Status of American Math Proficiency
- Critical Insights: Only 28% of American eighth graders achieved math proficiency as per the Department of Education’s National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP). This reflects a slight recovery from 2022 but a significant drop from 34% in 2019, underscoring the ongoing educational setbacks post-pandemic.
- Pandemic Impact: Experts highlight that the pandemic significantly disrupted learning, describing the long-lasting effects as a "Zoom hangover" impacting students' basic math skills.
- Future Implications: A study indicated that if current trends persist, students might lose approximately $20,000 in lifetime earnings, potentially diminishing the overall productivity of the future workforce.
- Comparison with global standards shows that American students lag behind countries like Japan and Canada, emphasizing the need for improved educational strategies.
2. Federal Reserve and Interest Rates
- Interest Rate Decisions: The Federal Reserve recently opted to keep interest rates unchanged, pausing after three consecutive cuts. The nuanced shift in wording from the Fed suggests concerns about inflation, causing confusion about future monetary policy direction.
- Response to External Pressures: Fed Chair Jerome Powell faced inquiries about pressures from the Trump administration regarding interest rate adjustments, affirming a commitment to neutrality in decision-making despite external pressures.
3. Deportation Costs Under Trump's Policies
- Projected Costs: The Department of Homeland Security estimates a need of $26.9 billion for the first year of implementing mass deportation policies. This figure notably exceeds the current $8 billion budget allocated to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
- Comprehensive Plan for Deportation: The internal memo from ICE outlined substantial logistical needs including:
- 26 additional airplanes
- 7,000 lawyers
- 10,000 enforcement personnel
- 110,000 detention beds
- Funding Sources: There’s ongoing speculation about reallocating funds from other agencies within the Department of Homeland Security to cover these costs, reflecting the significant financial implications of the proposed deportation policies.
Key Takeaways
- Educational Trends: With only a fraction of students meeting proficiency in math, urgent reforms in educational approaches are necessary to avoid long-term economic consequences.
- Debt and Inflation: Businesses and consumers need to stay alert to federal signals concerning monetary policy as uncertainty persists around inflation targets and interest rates.
- Deportation Economics: Comprehensive deportation policies will require extensive funding and resources that challenge current fiscal capabilities, raising questions about budgetary priorities under upcoming administrations.
Conclusion
The intersection of educational performance, economic policies, and immigration underscores a complex landscape affecting American society today. The implications of these data points signal the need for strategic planning and proactive responses from policymakers and educators alike. As the episode articulates, understanding these indicators is crucial for navigating the future implications of economic and social policies.
Was this summary helpful?
Recent Episodes
Trump's tariff role model

The Indicator from Planet Money
President Trump speaks fondly of William McKinley, the 25th U.S. president who was a strong advocate for tariffs. He's credited with helping to protect the fledgling tinplate industry in the late 19th century. But did the tariff work? We take a closer look at McKinley's tinplate tariff and if it was worth the cost. Related episodes on tariffs: Trump threatens the grim trigger (Apple / Spotify)Canada's key resource against Trump's possible trade war (Apple / Spotify) Why Trump's potential tariffs are making business owners anxious (Apple / Spotify) Trump's contradictory trade policies (Apple / Spotify) How Trump's tariff plan might work (Apple / Spotify) Worst. Tariffs. Ever. (Apple / Spotify) For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Fact-checking by Sierra Juarez. Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter. Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
February 05, 2025
Trump threatens the grim trigger

The Indicator from Planet Money
President Donald Trump had promised new tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. However, after negotiations with both Mexico and Canada on Monday tariffs against those countries are paused for at least a month. He said tariffs are not a negotiating tool, but he's used them as one as recently as January in a dispute with Colombia. Today, we dissect the game theory behind Trump's use of tariffs. Related episodes: Canada's key resource against Trump's potential trade war (Apple / Spotify) How tariffs have been used throughout US History (Apple / Spotify) The game theory that led to nuclear standoffs (Apple / Spotify) For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Fact-checking by Sierra Juarez. Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter. Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
February 04, 2025
The reality stopping water pipelines to the parched western US

The Indicator from Planet Money
With so much water in the eastern U.S., why can't the region pipe some of it to its drought-prone neighbors in the West? This perennial question nags climate journalists and western water managers alike. We break down why building a pipeline is unrealistic right now for the Colorado River. Related episodes:How Colorado towns are trying to get some water certainty The trouble with water discounts For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter. Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
February 03, 2025
Canada's key resource against Trump's potential trade war

The Indicator from Planet Money
If President Trump imposes 25% tariffs, Canada could use oil as a negotiating tool in potential trade war. A business journalist on CBC discusses this potential 'last resort'.
January 30, 2025

Ask this episodeAI Anything
Sign In to save message history