PDB Afternoon Bulletin | December 26th, 2024: Did Russian Air Defense Cause Deadly Azerbaijan Crash? & Pakistan Escalates Attacks On Taliban in Afghanistan

It's Thursday, 26th December. Welcome to the PDB afternoon bulletin night. It's to be fair, the late afternoon bulletin. I'm on the road still. It's the Where's Waldo game coming to you this week from East Asia. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed.

First, we'll look at the deadly crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight over Kazakhstan on Wednesday as evidence mounts that it was likely caused by a Russian air defense system. Then, Pakistan is escalating their fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan, unleashing a series of airstrikes that killed at least 46 people late Tuesday night. Now, it's just the latest incident to raise tensions with the Afghan Taliban government

who, not surprisingly, vowed retaliation. But first, our afternoon spotlight. We'll begin with a Christmas Day tragedy out of Kazakhstan, where an Azerbaijan Airlines flight crashed on Wednesday in an incident suspected to be caused by Russian anti-aircraft fire.

The flight was heading from Baku in Azerbaijan to Grozny in Russia, but was diverted for unknown reasons over an area where Moscow's air defenses have been engaged in intense aerial battles with Ukrainian drones in recent weeks. After turning around and flying east over the Caspian Sea, the plane struggled to stay airborne and ultimately went down over Western Kazakhstan, killing at least 38 people, and that's according to a report from the Wall Street Journal.

Miraculously, as many as 29 passengers survived the fiery crash landing, which was captured by locals on video. Suspicions soon fell on Russia, despite initial reports that the crash was caused by a mid-air collision with a flock of birds. Ukrainian national security officials subsequently said that intelligence suggested the flight was likely downed by the Russian military.

Osprey flight solutions and aviation security firm also conducted an initial assessment of the footage Wednesday evening, which they said implicated Russian military air defense systems due to what appeared to be shrapnel damage on the tail section of the airplane. They said such damage could not have been caused by birds, particularly when considering the altitude that the plane was flying at.

By Thursday morning, four sources with knowledge of the preliminary findings of Azerbaijan's investigation confirmed the Reuters that the plane was indeed shot down by a Russian air defense system. They added that the plane's communications were paralyzed by electronic warfare systems as they attempted to approach Grozny in Chechnya, Russia.

The circumstances surrounding the flights diversion over the Caspian Sea, which took it hundreds of miles off its planned route, were not immediately clear. But officials in Kyiv suggested it was due to a deliberate decision made by Russian officials. A senior national security official in Ukraine told the Wall Street Journal, quote,

Russia should have closed the airspace over Grozny but failed to do so. The plane was damaged by the Russians and was sent to Kazakhstan instead of being urgently landed in Grozny to save lives. Ukraine's military has repeatedly targeted Russia's southern region over the past few months with military drones. Response to Moscow's relentless bombardment of Ukrainian cities.

The attacks have regularly triggered Russian air defenses, and Wednesday was no different, with the Russian Defense Ministry claiming to have shot down some 59 Ukrainian drones over several regions. Somewhere down in closed airspace, over regions bordering Ukraine and flights to Russia's Kazan Airport were temporarily suspended on Wednesday due to the activity. But the airspace, where the Azerbaijan Airlines flight was traveling, reportedly remained open.

An Azerbaijani source told Reuters, quote, no one claims that it was done on purpose. However, taking into account the established facts, Baku expects the Russian side to confess to the shooting down of the Azerbaijani aircraft, end quote.

Now, so far, the Kremlin is attempting to downplay the accusations, saying such speculations are inappropriate until the conclusion of the investigation. Leaders in Kazakhstan have also declined to place blame, saying on Thursday that the cause of the crash was still unknown. Coming up, Pakistan is escalating their fight against the Pakistani Taliban in Afghanistan, unleashing a series of airstrikes that killed at least 46 people late Tuesday night.

We'll discuss the applications when we return.

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Welcome back to the afternoon bulletin, admittedly the late afternoon bulletin today. Pakistan's military launched a series of airstrikes late Tuesday night on Afghanistan's Paktika Province, leaving 46 people dead and escalating tensions with the Afghan Taliban government, which vowed swift retaliation.

According to an update from an Afghan government spokesman on Wednesday, six additional people were wounded in the strikes, which killed mostly women and children. The strikes were reportedly aimed at dismantling training facilities and strongholds linked to the Pakistani Taliban, also known as the TTP in Afghanistan.

The strikes mark a significant development in Pakistan's ongoing battle with the terror group, which has intensified in recent months as relations between Islamabad and Kabul continue to deteriorate. For background, the TTP, while pledging allegiance to the Afghan Taliban, operates independently with a stated objective of imposing its version of Islamic law across Pakistan. This goal mirrors the governance style of the Afghan Taliban.

who've held power in Kabul since August of 2021, following the Biden administration's somewhat disastrous troop withdrawal. And when I say somewhat disastrous, I guess I mean disastrous. Pakistani security officials speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the operation to the Associated Press said the strikes were part of broader efforts to neutralize cross-border terrorist threats.

However, conflicting casualty figures have further complicated the narrative. The TTP claimed that 50 people, including 27 women and children, were killed. While the Afghan Taliban government condemned the attack, insisting that many victims were refugees from Pakistan's Waziristan region, which borders Afghanistan's eastern Pakitika province, previously scarred by TTP terrorist attacks.

Adding to the volatility of the situation, Pakistan's interior ministry announced the same day that 13 TTP terrorists were killed during a separate intelligence-based operation in South Waziristan. This series of events underscores Pakistan's longstanding challenge in managing threats from the TTP while navigating its delicate relationship with Afghanistan's Taliban-led administration.

For years, Islamabad has accused Kabul of providing safe haven for terrorists and failing to curb cross-border attacks. Allegations that the Afghan government denies claiming it doesn't allow attacks on foreign soil. Yet the facts on the ground paint a different picture. Terrorist activity within Pakistan has surged

leaving a trail of destruction and instability. Just last weekend, TTP terrorists killed at least 16 Pakistani soldiers during an assault on a checkpoint in the country's northwest. In March, Pakistan launched similar airstrikes in Afghanistan's border regions, targeting TTP hideouts in an effort to stop the group's growing influence.

With mounting casualties and rising distrust, the already precarious relationship between these two neighbors appears to be unraveling well even further. As Pakistan and Afghanistan escalate their rhetoric and military actions, fears are growing of a potential broader regional conflict.

That, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Thursday, 26th, December. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb at thefirsttv.com. And of course, to listen to the show ad-free, well, I think you know it's simple. You just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. See, I told you it was simple. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then,

Well, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool.