Today is addition of back roads of Illinois. We were bringing you lasted for farming sources and information sponsored by AgriGold. We will talk about the grains markets for right now.
Otherwise, we're joining with Ed Osset from the University of Minnesota Twin Cities, then we'll talk about the commodities markets with car came from agmarkets.net in Bloomington, Illinois. Otherwise, this is your rural news sponsored by Agri Gold.
This weekend is going to have a tariffs for Canada and Mexico to be hitting the agricultural industry, then maybe China is next for next couple weeks. Next week will be the cattle upon in San Antonio for cattle ranchers and cattle farmers in San Antonio.
Finally, in the X production, the prices are going to be high because of the bird flew from backyard flock and wild birds. This has been your Rural News for this afternoon.
This is your commodities market for this afternoon answered by Kyle Bumstead. He's your commodity profit. One day on a corporate rate of the green markets have closed on Friday afternoon. It's slower. Corn futures is down at five to 10 cents. Corn being futures is down at three to six cents on the hat.
Chicago reaches down at three to four percent. Let's take a look for the livestock market at afternoon. Cattle is up at three to five cents. Feedly cattle is up at five to four cents on a half for this afternoon. Lean hogs with the minimum of nine to five cents.
This has been your commodities markets for this afternoon. We'll talk about the commodities markets with car cameo from agmarkets.net in Bloomington, Illinois. Let's discuss about the commodities markets, especially in the beans markets.
Our concern for the beans markets. What's been a dynamic week news a while wise affects about all the commodities actually this tariff talk. We started with Columbia then came back and
got that kind of resolved short term. Then as we approached the weekend, we saw a little bit of tariff concerns with our great trading partners, Canada and Mexico. So that's kind of the big topic. But as far as the bean market goes, the markets kind of
shifting from demand here in the U.S. to that southern hemisphere as Brazil's getting a fairly good start on their harvest. We've got 4% of the beans harvested in Brazil. It's quickly going to jump up.
The main thing is weather and it's going to cooperate a little bit better here as we move forward. So we'll see if we'll see that harvest pressure in Brazil. Beanwise, there was a terminal in the southern hemisphere. I believe it was a train terminal.
that caught fire. So the logistics or transportation issue is going to be the next thing we talk about in that Southern Hemisphere as they try to get some harvest activity complete. It's kind of interesting visiting with or listening to a producer in that Southern Hemisphere. It said early, being yields are fairly good. Of course, on some of these yields,
uh, they're mainly good in test plots. It's kind of like here in the upper Midwest where if you're a seed salesman and all the good yields are right there. So we'll see if those yields continue. Uh, as you know, the January monthly supply demand report showed that southern hemisphere, fairly strong yields,
Brazilian bean yields has been as high as 177 but we're seeing some of these analysts backing off on those higher expectations and with the idea that we're still going to have a record production in the southern hemisphere
But it might not be as large as some of them would project. The other thing about the B market is, as we've seen in the national news is bird flu. And hopefully this bird flu gets under control because poultry is one of our largest consumers of meal. And we want to keep that market intact here, Caesar.
Do you have any concerns about these issues for next couple weeks with China?
Tariff Talk. Today we saw Tariff Talk, Canada, Mexico, supposed to take February 1. Then there was some talk data. It would be March 1. Then it was back to February 1. But you know, it's 25%. And where I'm going with China is, we're seeing them on the Tariff list and it's 10% with them. So
a little bit down the road. We need to see how this tariff news unfolds. China has rejected some South American products due to sand being in the meal from Argentina and also Brazilian beans maybe having some problems or issue with them. So
China is looking at needing some beans from the southern hemisphere. Boats are lining up in the southern hemisphere. So they might be playing the quality game here. So we'll see how that unfolds here. China is the big buyer in beans, and hopefully we won't see them getting in a trade dispute with the new administration. Of course,
It's a secondary story about the drought on this crop in Brazil. What is your thoughts on the corn production from Brazil?
Yeah, it's a Brazilian corn expect to be 127 million metric tons. A year ago, we were 122. So it's still above last year, same thing in Argentina, 51 versus 50. So the Brazil was a little too wet to start with. They've actually needed to dry out in the northern part. Southern Brazil has been a little dry and they've received moisture late.
on it. So that Brazilian forecast has been a mixed bag. But overall, the average of some of these analysts out of the Southern Hemisphere feel will still have a fairly good crop in Brazil. You know, the key course is Argentina. They're a little later and they've experienced a little bit more of a drought or weather concern versus Brazil. These are
How about in Argentina, Chris? Yeah, Argentina is later. So hopefully these later range would help those producers as far as production goes. As a North American farmer, I'd like to see them be the one experiencing some weather problems. But it's a situation where
51 million metric tons is ample supply. We'll see how these yields turn out here as they start to rev up harvest here in a few weeks in Argentina, Caesar. Do you follow the livestock market, son, today? What is your thoughts on that?
Most of the action continues to be in the cattle complex. The significance of the cattle complex is we've seen the market move to all-time highs. It's just been like a bottle rocket at times or even the feeder market being very, very strong. We're still dealing with overall tight numbers. Some of the edge has been taken off with some meat imports out of the southern hemisphere, particularly beef.
But overall consumption remains fairly strong. The consumers got an appetite for beef. Some of this substitute stuff is not really going very well. We're seeing some strong
domestic consumption of beef and with tight supplies. We feel the market can hang in there quite well here as we move forward. It won't be long. Weather cooperates will be in cookout season. We'll see how these cookout features go as we move down the road.
uh hogs has kind of been a follower in through here uh that they continue to hang in there uh the thing on the livestock side is we don't want the grain market to get too high to cut into some of these uh returns on especially the
cattle, if you buy these high priced feeders, you'd need to some fairly cheap corn and meal or DGGs to feed them to come out ahead. The margins are fairly tight, but it's been a bull market in the cattle complex, Caesar. Mm. Mm. Mm. Mm. Mm. Mm. Mm. Mm.
Do you have any concerns about the prices spill in the corn markets because the prices are currently high on the feed? Yeah, ever since last fall there, particularly after the January crop report, grain corn prices has been real strong, a lot stronger and most anticipated.
If you go back when we started the supply demand balance sheet on this crop, we just harvested here last fall. We had projections of 2.2, 2.3 billion bushel carryout. And we were above five bucks because we went through the growing season into fall. The carryout kept getting lower, lower, lower.
then we saw the market go lower and lower, then all of a sudden, you know, harvest is over with and we've got a little vacuum going up. Now corn carry out 1.5 billion bushels, so that's relatively tight. So we might be looking at $5 corn. The thing that's going to give the corn market the big news is we get into the growing season to see what type of weather pattern we have here in the upper Midwest, Caesar.
Do you have any final thoughts on the Greens markets for today from the board on today?
Yeah, just watching market action is getting more two-sided. Some fairly good price swings in through here. We're going to see volatility continue to pick up as we move forward here. Just a lot of uncertainty in front of us. We don't know how this tariff situation is going to unfold in through here. So volatility is picking up. There's price risk up, price risk down.
And also in this tariff thing, one thing we got to think about too is we buy a lot of products like from Canada, potash and so forth and crude oil. And so this world trade situation is going to add volatility to the grain markets. So if you don't like the market, wait a little bit. It's going to be different in a few minutes, Caesar. Science curve.
Well, you're welcome. This is Kurt Camille from AgMarkets.net on back roads of Illinois. We will talk about the grains markets for right now. Otherwise, we were joining with that asset from the University of Minnesota Twin Cities.
They add power things with the grains markets for this morning as we are talking about it for this morning as record for this. Well the markets today for the month of January they've been very good. Today we peeled back a little bit and corn and wheat but the March corn contract
is currently trading around 483. Now that's off from its high a couple of days ago of 497, but that is 483. Cesar is 80 cents off the lows we set back in late August at 403. So an 80 cent rally is, that's good. Do you have any concerns about that?
Well, I've been saying for months that I'm looking for a rally to sell and are looking for rallies to sell and I think in the world of corn, we've got that rally right now. I hesitated before the new year and I think people are selling corn in soybeans and I say that because the basis
has backed off for both corn and soybeans in the nearby markets. That indicates that the buyers are able to buy corn and soybeans relatively easily. The farmers are finding out about their balance sheet for the spring.
Well, I travel and talk with the financial people. And it's a concern for corn and soybean and wheat growers, those balance sheets. And as we look ahead to 2025 and where the prices are, currently it's going to be a tough year in the year ahead. And a lot of hard decisions will have to be made.
on what commodities to grow. I suspect, Cesar, in the year ahead, that both corn and soybean prices are not good, but I think the soybean situation is more difficult than corn. I think we're going to see more corn acres grown at the expense of soybeans and probably more than most of us expect that change will be bigger than we expect.
How is the inputs cost like fertilizer seeds for the spring? Well, the difficult part, without getting specific, just big picture, I know that prices are way down from a year ago, yet I've got smart people at the U that I work with, and we have real farms in our thin-bin database.
And I am being assured, excuse me, I am being assured that despite the lower prices we see this year from last year, that the cost of producing corn and soybeans has not come down. And in fact, I'm assuming the same break even cost of production
in 2025 as I did in 2024. Kind of surprising. Usually when prices come down as they have over the last year, year and a half, there is pressure to bring down input costs and never as much as the decline in grain prices, but there's pressure to come down
But I am being assured that no, the cost of producing grain in 2025 will be very much in line and similar to the costs of a year ago. Do you think about the Brazilian is going to be bigger than before?
Well, they are projecting a bigger crop than a year ago. And yes, I do. But Caesar, I'm always reluctant to put a number on it. I'm not a crop scout. I'm not down there measuring things and seeing my own. So yes, it's going to be a bigger crop, unfortunately.
Do you have any final thoughts on the corn production from the world's supply and demand report on February? Well, we had a big surprise in January. As recently as October of last year, the October WASD report, we had carryouts in corn in the US at 2 billion bushels plus.
And the latest report in January, we've carved that down to a billion five. That's a big change in the carry out outlook for the corn market in the US.
There's reason why the March contract is up 80 cents off its lows. And that was a constructive change for the corn market. Unfortunately, the soybean market is still weighed down by heavy stocks, even though they aren't as heavy as we thought they were.
I'll stick with it, Caesar. I've been saying, look for rallies to sell. And in the last couple of weeks, I've been telling people, you know that rally you've been looking for? I think it's here. Get something done. How about the planning intention report on March?
The big overriding question in the planning intentions report is how will acres shift between corn and soybeans? I've seen some people talking about a two to three million acre shift away from soybeans in the corn.
And just my own sense, I think your average corn belt producer is more confident with their corn yields than soybean yields. And prices being the way they are, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the shift away from soybeans and into corn is larger than 3 million acres.
Thanks, Seth. I enjoyed our conversation for today. Cesar, I always enjoyed touching base with you. Good luck to you here in the next few weeks. This is Ed Ausset from the University of Minnesota Twin Cities on back roads of Illinois.
Thanks to Ed Ausset from the University of Minnesota and Kirk Camille from AgMarkets.net. This has been Back Roads of Illinois. I am Cesar Delgado. You have a great weekend.