markets in ag industry
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November 20, 2024
TLDR: Discussed commodities markets with Karl Seltzer from Conus Ag on this episode of Back Roads of Illinois
In this episode of Back Roads of Illinois, host Caesar Delgado discusses the ever-evolving commodities markets in the agriculture industry, with expert guest Karl Seltzer from Conus Ag. The conversation touches on various essential aspects, including the upcoming Cattle on Feeds report, global production trends, and market dynamics affecting crops and livestock.
Key Insights from the Episode
Cattle on Feeds Report
- The Cattle on Feeds report is expected to highlight a declining national cattle herd, currently shrinking to approximately 100% of the previous year's cattle as of November 1.
- Key Statistics: A slight increase in placements (103%) is anticipated due to dry conditions in grazing areas and cheaper feed grains enticing farmers to place more cattle.
- The report is critical for understanding market demand, particularly for choice cuts amid strong consumer interest.
Current Market Dynamics
- Corn and Soybean Futures: Reports indicate corn futures down by 9 to 8 cents and soybean futures down by 5 to 10 cents.
- Livestock Markets: Cattle futures increased by 6 to 8 cents, while feeder cattle fell slightly. Lean hog prices also saw minor declines.
- There is a mixed trade in cattle with some buying interest ahead of the Cattle on Feed report, despite limited packer purchasing across the market.
Crop Yields and Harvest Insights
- The harvest season is concluding positively in the Eastern Corn Belt, with average corn yields around 180 bushels per acre in southern Michigan and soybeans averaging 60-65 bushels.
- Regional Trends: Variations in yields are noted across states due to drought stress, particularly in Ohio, where yields are slightly lower compared to previous years.
- Overall Production: Wheat production, reportedly strong, is known to be well into the 100 bushels per acre range for many areas.
Global Agricultural Dynamics
- Attention is shifting toward South America, where Brazilian and Argentine production conditions are being monitored closely.
- Concerns are emerging about adverse weather conditions impacting growing areas, complicating the production outlook due to potential La Niña conditions.
- As the export season begins in four to six weeks, the dynamics between Brazil and China regarding trade agreements can significantly influence US markets.
Expert Opinions
- Karl Seltzer emphasizes the importance of staying attuned to global production numbers and trade relations, particularly concerning the US's competitive edge against Brazil after planting season.
- The discussion highlights that upcoming reports in January will be crucial as they will provide final old crop production numbers and domestic stock status.
Practical Takeaways
- Farmers and Investors: It's vital to keep track of market fluctuations post-harvest and ahead of critical reports that can dictate future commodity pricing and plant decisions.
- Monitoring Weather Patterns: As conditions like La Niña could adversely affect yields, staying updated on weather forecasts can inform better decision-making for planting and selling strategies.
- Consumer Trends: Increased retail spending in markets like China could boost global meat demand, which is another vital factor for farmers to consider in their production strategy.
Conclusion
The episode wraps up with a positive outlook on agricultural prospects despite various challenges. Karl Seltzer illustrates that careful monitoring and strategic planning are essential for farmers in navigating the complexities of the agriculture market landscape.
Listeners are encouraged to stay engaged with market reports and expert insights to better position themselves amidst changing conditions. As the market evolves, new opportunities and challenges will arise, making ongoing education vital for success in the agriculture industry.
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