The day is addition of back roads of Illinois. We were bringing elastic for farming sources and information sponsored by Agri Gold. We were here with our first guest of 2025 Matthew Cruz from Comstock in West Demones, Iowa. We were talking about the commodities markets for today's program.
Well, we are approaching the new administration about tariffs and demand. How much does it cost to have a tariffs to China? Otherwise, we will see what happened in a few days. This is your rural news sponsored by Agri-Gold-Reps-Bredlar.
The Midwest is likely to have an inches of snow on Friday morning in the Midwest and around for an central Illinois near Peoria and south of I-74 near Springfield. The statistic of the hurricane season of 2024 to the Gulf Coast is not $24 billion in Florida for the hurricane million.
This hurricane season of 2024, a subject of the category 5 Hurricane Milton to the Panhandle of Florida and Georgia, especially in North Carolina and East Tennessee. Finally, the world supply and demand report is coming up on January 10th from the Department of Agricultural
This is your Rural News. What happened in the agricultural industry? We were here with our first guest of 2025 Matthew Cruz from Comstock in West Des Monies, Iowa. How are you for this morning and a Happy New Year? Happy New Year, I'm doing good.
Hopefully we get a better rally to start off 2025. Let's begin with our discussion on the E15 for around the year and the 45 Z for Wednesday. I was explained to our audience about in Washington
Yeah, so there's been a lot of discussion on is E-15 going to be year round E-15, I should say, because we do have E-15 for part of the year in the summer and in only certain states.
But the success of that is fairly limited, right? Because a lot of gas stations don't want to go to the time and expense of putting in E15 pumps or changing their pump structure if it's not something that they can sell your round. And so in this latest update in the Farm Bill, there was
The early drafts had it in there to be put in year round. And that was a big deal because I've seen estimates where every 1% that we increase in ethanol uses in our gasoline blend that could represent an additional 100 million bushels. And so you go from what we're at now, E10, 10% blend to 15% blend. You're talking at half a billion bushels.
Each year just from that little change and so it's a it's a big deal for us, but you know unfortunately in the in the final draft that they passed it was taken out in the last minute in the last draft and and I think we Have the house speaker from Louisiana Kind of an oil state to thank for that. So Unfortunately, you know, we're still back to square one that there that's kind of the latest news that I have so
As far as 45Z, you know, we're still waiting for more clarity. So just still kind of in that, that sit and wait approach. I haven't really seen any updates there. I don't, you're probably not going to see any updates in my opinion for a little while. Certainly not till Trump probably takes over. And I don't know that it's going to be a huge priority for him, day one.
But I'm hopeful that eventually they'll get that figured out. So maybe by this spring, we'll get some clarity there. What happened with the 45Z from Wednesday? And did you look at it from Treasury Department?
I guess I haven't. Maybe I missed something, but I haven't seen any major update there. Maybe you have some more information there, but I think we're still waiting on some more clarity from the Treasury Department. We know that you're in Brazil. How is it going with the crops in Brazil for right now?
I'm still I'm still here in Brazil actually and I won't come back to Iowa until the end of January and you know buying all the crops in Brazil look great. You know pretty much the I would say 80 to 90 percent of the country's growing region is getting
adequate to above adequate rainfall and so it's uh there's parts of monogrossa where they're just kind of starting to harvest already um you know but the bulk of it won't really begin until late january or early february but uh the forecast you know for january for most of brazil
looks to be very good. It's really just the southernmost state of Rio Grande de Soule, which I think is leaning dry here in the forecast. It might have some some crop stress and then on over into Argentina, which is also leaning drier. I think that's going to be the case going on into next week.
And then kind of into mid-January, I see some scattered showers coming back into Argentina and southern Brazil, which I think will kind of help improve conditions there. But yeah, overall, I mean, yield, I think, is getting larger in Brazil. And it's probably flat-lined. And in Argentina, maybe getting a little smaller, but not
you know, nothing huge yet, but that can change quickly, you know. So, but by and all, I don't think the trend has really changed very much. I think you should still be expecting a large crop overall from South America. How is the beans planting season and second corn crop and manta gracil for right now?
So yeah, they don't begin their second crop of corn until they get the beans out. And so it really doesn't begin here in force until late January. Now there are some, I've seen gotten videos on social media are sent to me of some farms that have gotten a really early start, but that's a pretty minor cases. And so for the most part, the bulk
of the second crop corn crop will start until late January and most of it actually go in February and then the laggards will kind of finish up in early March. So it's still pretty early there but
So it's no major indication yet of what the crop is going to be. The first crop of corn is in right now in Brazil and they finished planting. And I think you might see some reports here soon. A first crop corn actually being harvested. And that's a lot smaller than the first crop, but I think overall conditions are pretty decent for that.
Is there any thought about a cattle market saying hogs markets for right now?
Well, in the case of the cattle, it's surprisingly strong. I mean, we just keep coming back anytime there's a pullback in the market. We go back and re-challenge, re-test the highs again. And so we saw yesterday we had a really strong update. I think they're just markets looking at pasture conditions. And as the weather is going to get real cold here,
It's kind of starting this weekend in a lot of the the Western United States and and And so it could hurt some of the the production there, but But yeah, I don't know I keep thinking this market's going to turn at some point, but it hasn't so far but You know, so far every every correction that we've had just kind of been a buying opportunity and the market seems to come back but
You know in the case of hogs we've had a good run here, but Kind of another another setback as well, you know, we just keep improving our productivity and our our litter count for Continues to improve and and just you know anytime. There's a shortfall. We just given time we build up production to kind of fill it in the case of the hogs and so You know that that trend has been happening for a long time isn't anything new and so I don't know why it would
would change going forward. What was the catalog feeds report back from December before Christmas?
What was the Kettle on Feed report in December? I think it came in pretty neutral. If I remember, I don't know that there was any major surprises there. I think placements were right in line with what the market was looking for. I think just lately here, it's kind of looked at the weather and kind of the pasture conditions, in my opinion.
Is there anything else that would you like to tell the farmer about the corn basis for right now until January 20th?
Well, basis is pretty regional. You know, in those areas in Illinois, where they got those hellacious yields of 280 bushels. You know, I don't know that the basis is probably going to improve all that much. You know, in our area of Northwest Iowa, we've we had a decent basis.
You know, I think historically at harvest can be 40 or 50 under and we're probably already at, you know, we've been between 10 and 20 over. And so.
You know, I think as time goes on, depending on where you're at, you know, in the Western Corn Belt where the crop was maybe a little bit shorter, I think you can expect it to improve given time. But I don't know that you can make that case if you're in one of those fortunate areas where they had really strong production. And so I think it's
You know, if I was in Illinois, I'd probably be a little bit more aggressive selling on this most recent rally. And I think it comes back. I want to say we're two thirds sold right now of our of the old crop and still hanging on to the last third and and we're.
On this rally, we're getting pretty close to where I'd probably let go of the last third here pretty soon. If we get one more move up higher, like what we've been seeing. If you see the corn chart, we've been kind of forming a rounding bottom and I think we got one, one more move, at least one more move higher, I think, in the corn.
you know, before the market kind of begins to look out to the acreage and in what we're going to be planting next year and that'll kind of start to take place here in early March. Do you have any final thoughts on the beans markets in Brazil?
Well, I think this recent rally here was probably a gift, in my opinion. Maybe what's the dryness is provide a little bit of support to the market where
You know, we're not maybe gonna drop below $9 anymore, but the, any loss in Argentina is being made up in Brazil. I'd put it that way. And so I don't think that anything has really changed in the last couple of weeks. Overall South America crop has gotten larger during the holidays, not smaller.
Thanks, Matthew. We'll talk to you soon. Thank you, sir. This is Matthew Cruz from Comstock in West Demonies, Iowa on back roads of Illinois.
This is your open numbers of the commodity markets sponsored by Kyle Bumstead from Allendale Incorporated Corn Futures are down at 4 to 6 cents for March corn. Soybean Futures are down at 5 to 4 cents for January beans.
Week futures are up at 3 to 5 quarter. For May week, let's go to the livestock markets for today's opening. Cattle futures are up for a January contract with 5 to 10 cents. Peter cattle are up at 3 to 4 cents for a February cattle. Lean hogs are down at 6 to 8 cents on February hogs.
Crude oil are up to 9 to 8 cents per barrel. Dow Jones is up to 8 points. This is your cash hog weight from the Department of Agricultural and Demonies, Iowa from Iowa and Minnesota Hogs weight.
The Iowa weight is confidential because of the new year and the holiday season. Let's take a look at the loin and the buck markets as price 79. 25 for the loin markets as price 109. 55 for the buck markets. This has been your cash hog weight on the markets.
This is your commodity markets from kyle bumstead from allamdale and court-related all things considered down for today's close. Here we go. March corn was down at 4.60 on the quarter.
January beans was down for today's exchange for 8 to 5 cents on 991. May Chicago wheat was down at 529 to 5 to 10 quarter. Let's go with livestock markets for today's close. January cattle are down at 196.
5 for 50 cents to the quarter. February will cattle are down at 264. 17, 5 for 25 cents off to the high of the day. February hogs are down at 80. 7, 7, 5 to the quarter.
Thanks to Matthew Cruz from Comstock in West Des Monies, Iowa. You can listen to the show for today's program on YouTube, and whenever you get your podcast, this has been Backroads of Illinois. I am Cesar Delgado of a Good Weekend.
