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    Macro Mysteries: The Shocking Revision to UK GDP

    enSeptember 20, 2023

    Podcast Summary

    • ONS revises UK GDP figures, revealing faster recovery than expectedThe ONS revised UK GDP figures showed a faster economic recovery than initially thought, challenging the belief of a lagging UK economy, but the UK is still growing at a slower pace compared to pre-pandemic levels.

      The Office for National Statistics (ONS) in the UK recently made a significant revision to the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, revealing a faster economic recovery than initially thought. This revelation challenged the widely held belief that the UK was lagging behind other major economies in their post-pandemic recovery. The ONS revisions, while substantial in absolute terms, were relatively small compared to the scale of the GDP swing during the pandemic. The revisions came as a result of the challenges in measuring economic output during the pandemic due to widespread disruptions and unavailability of data. Despite the revision, the UK economy is still estimated to be growing at a slower pace compared to pre-pandemic levels. The monthly GDP numbers have shown inconsistent growth, with some quarters experiencing growth and others experiencing declines, indicating a potential stagnation. Overall, the revision to the GDP figures provides a more accurate representation of the UK's economic recovery, but it also highlights the challenges in measuring economic output during times of significant disruption.

    • Revised economic data shows UK's 2008 recession was worse than initially thoughtThe UK's economic recovery from the pandemic is uncertain due to factors beyond the pandemic, including historical GDP revisions revealing a more severe 2008 recession and the impact of Brexit.

      The UK's economic recovery from the pandemic is currently in the middle of the pack among developed countries, but the future trajectory will depend on factors beyond the pandemic, including the impact of Brexit. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently revised historical GDP figures, revealing that the economic downturn during the 2008 financial crisis was more severe than initially thought, with a 6.4% fall in GDP and a longer recovery time. The ONS has also adjusted its methodology to ensure consistency between frequent and long-term GDP measures. Despite political pressure, the ONS has resisted any attempts to manipulate data, demonstrating the strength of UK institutions. The revisions went back to 1997, and while the changes were larger for the pandemic era, the financial crisis revisions were also significant. The dedication and expertise of statisticians, often overlooked, are crucial for accurate economic data.

    • Significant revisions to UK inventories and output reported in latest GDP dataONS reported larger increase in inventories and larger revisions in output due to missing data in health and government expenditure

      The Office for National Statistics (ONS) in the UK reported significant revisions to inventories and output in their latest quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The inventories component, which measures the amount of stock companies are holding, was revised from a large fall in 2020 to a sizable increase. This suggests that companies were not running down their stock as much as initially thought during the pandemic. Additionally, the ONS acknowledged missing data in the health sector and government expenditure, leading to a large revision in output in these areas for 2021. The ONS uses the expenditure and income approaches to measure GDP, and while they should balance, they often don't due to data discrepancies. This results in ongoing revisions as they work to reconcile the differences.

    • Measuring the UK economy using three different approachesThe National Statistics Office uses three methods to measure the UK economy: production, income, and expenditure. Preliminary numbers are based on the output approach and are subject to revision as more data becomes available.

      The National Statistics Office in the UK uses three different approaches - production, income, and expenditure - to measure the economy's performance across 112 industries and products. These approaches are reconciled to ensure accuracy, but the detailed reconciliation is only carried out 18 to 24 months after the reference period. The preliminary numbers released each quarter are based on the output approach and are subject to revision as more comprehensive data becomes available. The income and expenditure reports are crucial for balancing the accounts, and they rely on tax reporting, company reports, and inventory levels. The process also involves converting nominal GDP to real GDP by using the implied GDP deflator, which reflects changes in the price of all goods and services in the economy. The ONS does an excellent job of explaining complex concepts, but the data is primarily backward-looking and subject to revision. The pandemic period has seen exceptional revisions due to the unprecedented circumstances, and political considerations can also influence the focus on preliminary numbers.

    • Measuring GDP in the UK: A Complex ChallengeDespite advancements in data collection and integration, accurately measuring the UK's GDP remains complex due to volatile imports, exports, oil prices, commodities, and exchange rates, leading to ongoing revisions and debate.

      The Office for National Statistics (ONS) in the UK faces a significant challenge in accurately measuring the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) due to the impact of volatile imports and exports, particularly in relation to oil prices, commodities, and exchange rates. The pandemic era has highlighted this issue, with wild swings in these variables leading to large revisions to both nominal and real GDP. The timing of these shocks in relation to output also adds complexity. Looking ahead, there is potential for real-time or near real-time GDP measures, but this would require significant investment in data collection and aggregation. The historical purpose of GDP measurement was primarily for taxation purposes, but the ability to collect and integrate large datasets in real time is a modern development that could lead to more accurate and timely GDP estimates. However, the complexity of the task and the potential for ongoing revisions mean that GDP numbers from the pandemic era and beyond will likely remain a subject of debate and contention.

    • Measuring Economic Output: GDP vs StocksGDP and stocks offer different insights into economic trends, with GDP measuring historical output and stocks providing forward-looking indications. However, the divergence between GDP and Gross Domestic Income during the pandemic complicates cross-country comparisons.

      While Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a commonly used measure of a country's economic output, it has its limitations. Stocks, on the other hand, provide forward-looking insights into economic trends. For instance, ad spend on platforms like YouTube or Google search can indicate potential earnings for tech companies, and a decrease in ad budgets could signal upcoming financial struggles. However, when it comes to measuring economic output, GDP and Gross Domestic Income (GDI) should ideally align. But since the pandemic, there's been a significant divergence between the two, with GDP growing and GDI shrinking. This discrepancy can lead to difficulties in making cross-country comparisons, as different countries employ varying methods to measure economic output. The UK, for example, measures the contribution of public services like healthcare and education differently, leading to a larger reported contraction in the UK economy compared to other countries during the pandemic. The debate about which method is more accurate continues, with some arguing that the UK's approach is superior. Ultimately, the complexity and assumptions involved in calculating GDP raise questions about its usefulness as a definitive economic indicator.

    • GDP should not be the sole measure for investorsFocus on earnings and profits of companies instead of backward-looking GDP for investment decisions. Use timely and forward-looking measures like purchasing managers' indices.

      While Gross Domestic Product (GDP) can provide valuable information about a country's economic health, it should not be the sole measure used by investors when making decisions. GDP, which represents the total value of goods and services produced in an economy, can be misleading due to its backward-looking nature and potential for false precision. Instead, investors should focus on earnings and profits generated by companies within a country. This can be done by examining earnings at the index level or using purchasing managers' indices, which are more timely and directly related to companies. These measures are less prone to revisions and provide a more forward-looking perspective. Additionally, the relationship between GDP and stock markets can be complex, as there are instances where the two can be in opposition. Therefore, a well-rounded analysis of a country's economic situation should consider multiple measures beyond just GDP.

    • Understanding Economic Data's LimitationsMultiple sources and perspectives are crucial when interpreting economic data as no single measure can provide a complete picture.

      While official economic data is useful, it can provide incomplete or conflicting pictures of the economy. For instance, purchasing manager indices (PMIs) provide a snapshot of business sentiment at a given time but don't change even if the situation evolves. Flash PMIs are quick estimates published before the final data is in, and there can be discrepancies between different official surveys. Therefore, it's essential to consider multiple sources and perspectives when interpreting economic data. For example, the labor market data in the UK, which comes from both the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and HMRC's pay-as-you-earn (PAYE) system, can paint very different pictures of employment trends. Similarly, wage growth can appear to be rising rapidly according to one survey but flatlining according to another. Ultimately, it's crucial to understand that different data sources capture different aspects of the economy and that no single measure can provide a complete picture. So, when trying to make sense of the deluge of economic data, it's essential to consider multiple sources and perspectives to gain a more comprehensive understanding.

    • Exploring Alternatives to GDP for Measuring Societal ProgressAlternative measures like Bhutan's Gross National Happiness Index, UN Human Development Index, and OECD Better Life Index offer a more holistic perspective on societal progress, focusing on various aspects of well-being beyond mere output of goods and services.

      While traditional economic measures like Gross Domestic Product (GDP) can provide valuable insights, they may not fully capture the well-being and happiness of a society. The discussion touched upon alternative methods to verify potentially questionable GDP data, such as energy consumption, freight volume, luminosity, and even satellite data. However, it was also noted that there is ongoing debate about whose happiness is being measured with these indices. The conversation introduced the Bhutan Gross National Happiness Index as an alternative, which focuses on ecological sustainability, socioeconomic development, culture, and good governance. Despite its unique approach, the Bhutan index has faced criticism for excluding certain populations. The United Nations Human Development Index, OECD Better Life Index, and other similar measures also aim to capture various aspects of well-being, including health, education, and community support networks. Ultimately, these alternative measures offer a more holistic perspective on societal progress, going beyond the mere output of goods and services.

    • Measuring Economic Success Beyond GDPGDP is a common measure of economic success, but it doesn't fully capture quality of life or happiness. Europe's more holidays and fewer work hours vs US productivity highlight this. Happiness indexes are subjective and easily manipulated, so GDP remains the best objective measure for now.

      While Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a commonly used measure of a country's economic success, it may not fully capture the quality of life or happiness of its people. The comparison between the US and Europe, for instance, highlights the difference in the number of holidays and work hours, which could result in Europe appearing less productive but offering a better work-life balance. However, happiness indexes, an alternative measure, are subjective and easily manipulated. Therefore, GDP, with all its limitations, remains the best objective measure we have for now. It's essential to remember that maximizing happiness in a totalitarian way is not desirable, and the ultimate goal should be to strike a balance between economic growth and individual well-being.

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