Deep State Dynamics: The 'deep state' refers to entrenched bureaucracies controlling U.S. foreign policy, leading to little difference between Democrat and Republican agendas over the decades.
In the conversation, experts John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs discuss the concept of the 'deep state' in American politics, referring to entrenched bureaucracies that influence foreign policy regardless of which party is in power. They point out that both the Democrats and Republicans largely follow similar agendas, making it hard to distinguish between them. They emphasize that the administrative state, built over decades, has become powerful enough to dominate foreign policy decisions, leading to a continuity of strategies among administrations since the early 1990s. Mearsheimer argues that even when leaders change, the policies often remain unchanged due to the influence of these bureaucrats who have established interests. This perspective raises questions about whether true political change is possible given the existing structures within the U.S. government.
Foreign Policy Focus: American foreign policy often seeks to maximize power by promoting democracy, but critics argue it can backfire, causing harm to both other nations and the U.S. itself, questioning the practicality of such interventions.
One important idea from the debate is that American foreign policy aims to maximize global power, often under the notion of spreading democracy. However, there's skepticism about this approach, as it's seen to damage both the targeted countries and the U.S. itself. Critics argue that the U.S. often pursues its interests without genuinely caring about the well-being of other nations. They point out that attempts to enforce democracy can lead to negative consequences, like backlash and conflict, citing Iraq and Afghanistan as examples. While some believe in the noble cause of aiding free nations, questions arise about the true intentions behind U.S. actions and whether imposing liberal democracy is feasible or even appropriate. Ultimately, while power and values shape foreign policy, understanding and respecting the complexities of other countries is crucial for achieving desirable outcomes without compromising American values.
Power Projection: U.S. foreign policy is often motivated by national interests and power projection, rather than altruistic goals of democracy promotion. Containing China is essential, while relationships with Russia should be approached with caution to maintain balance in global politics.
In international relations, the United States often prioritizes its national interests, even if it means aligning with dictators. While it may seem noble to intervene against oppressive regimes, actions are frequently driven by a desire to project power rather than genuine intentions to promote democracy. Experts argue that pursuing containment strategies, especially against China, is crucial, while relations with Russia should be more cooperative. Engaging in conflicts like Ukraine and the Middle East can hinder U.S. efforts to address the larger challenge posed by China. Ultimately, a careful balance of power is necessary, and understanding motivations behind interventions can clarify the complexities of global politics.
U.S.-China Dynamics: The U.S. and China conflict stems from views on power; cooperation can foster prosperity, while escalation risks nuclear war. A balanced approach is key to stability.
The conflict between the U.S. and China arises from differing views on power and security. Economists emphasize that cooperation and trade with China can benefit the U.S. economy, while others see China’s rise as a direct threat to American dominance. The focus should be on productive relations rather than confrontation, as avoiding conflict could lead to mutual prosperity. Maintaining peace is essential, as escalating tensions could risk nuclear war, which poses the most substantial threat to national security. Thus, a balanced approach prioritizing cooperation while recognizing the complex power dynamics is crucial for global stability.
India's Strategic Role: India's strategic approach and sovereignty make it a crucial player for U.S. interests in balancing China's influence, highlighting the need for careful and collaborative geopolitical strategies amid rising tensions.
India is seen as a critical ally for the United States, especially in responding to China's growing influence, particularly in the Indian Ocean. While India seeks to maintain its own interests, including strong ties with Russia and working with the U.S., its distinctive priorities as a superpower emphasize its sovereignty. Although some U.S. strategies aim to restrict China's growth and access to markets, this containment can lead to unintended economic consequences for all parties involved. The balance of power in the region is precarious, with nuclear implications making it vital for countries to communicate and find collaborative approaches. A focus on India could be beneficial as the U.S. navigates these complex geopolitical dynamics, especially as companies like Apple shift production there, signaling a notable economic transition. Cooperation may offer a pathway to reduce tensions and ensure stability in the face of the evolving landscape.
Geopolitical Tensions: Geopolitical tensions between Israel, Iran, and the U.S. are complex. While Israel seeks U.S. involvement against Iran, both Iran and the U.S. prefer to avoid war. Future outcomes will depend on U.S. leadership.
The conversation highlights the current geopolitical tensions surrounding Israel, Iran, and the United States. Israel's military actions in the West Bank and Gaza seem to be well-contained, without much regional military response expected from neighboring countries like Jordan or Egypt. However, the situation could escalate dramatically if Israel and Iran engage in direct conflict, particularly since Iran is linked to powerful allies like Russia and China. While both Iran and the U.S. do not desire war with each other, there is a concern about Israel's attempts to pull the U.S. into a significant conflict, especially regarding Iran's potential nuclear capabilities. The future of this situation largely depends on the leadership of next U.S. administration, which may influence U.S.-Iran interactions and can potentially prevent further escalation involving Israel.
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
215 Episodes
Recent Episodes from All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
(0:00) Announcement from Friedberg
(0:20) Besties intro Elon Musk!
(4:19) The Battle of Free Speech
(13:21) Potential government efficiency agency
(30:41) SpaceX updates, overreaching regulations
(39:06) Thoughts on Boeing's culture
(41:23) The 80/20 AI Future
(56:59) Elon and Jason share unaired SNL skits
Intro song credit:
M83 - Outro
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In conversation with Mark Cuban
(0:00) The Besties intro Mark Cuban: Voting record, working with Ross Perot's campaign in 1992
(5:43) The history of Cuban's love/hate relationship with Trump
(19:08) Trump's performance as President: what he got right and wrong
(40:46) Party nominations: Kamala vs. Trump
(49:18) Biden's performance as President: what he got right and wrong
(55:45) Should Kamala share blame for Biden's failures?
(1:07:01) International conflict, national debt, crypto regulation
(1:21:33) General sense of Kamala Harris, why she's been avoiding adversarial interviews, why Sacks supports Trump
(1:31:47) Selling a majority of his Mavericks stake, changing business landscape of the NBA, what he's working on at Cost Plus Drugs
(1:44:50) Thoughts on AI, what's next for him
(1:51:37) Relationship with Elon, re-evaluating the Twitter deal, OpenAI's new fundraise
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Referenced in the show:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN
https://www.architecturaldigest.com/story/wait-are-windowless-bedrooms-going-to-be-a-thing
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
(0:00) Announcement from Friedberg!
(0:21) Sacks intros John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs
(1:32) What is the Deep State Party, and what are their goals?
(13:56) Should America leverage its power against dictators?
(22:07) The China threat: avoiding the escalatory path to nuclear war
(36:08) India's growing role; are China's wounds self-inflicted?
(47:07) Conflict in the Middle East and the path to peace
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OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
(0:00) Bestie intros: In Memoriam
(6:43) OpenAI's $150B valuation: bull and bear cases
(24:46) Will AI hurt or help SaaS incumbents?
(40:41) Implications from OpenAI's for-profit conversion
(49:57) Meta's impressive new AR glasses: is this the killer product for the age of AI?
(1:09:05) Blue collar boom: trades are becoming more popular with young people as entry-level tech jobs dry up
(1:20:55) Risk of nuclear war increasing
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Referenced in the show:
https://openai.com/our-structure
https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1658664383717978112
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1839121268521492975
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/26/zuckerberg-meta-white-house-pressure-00176399
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/16/the-toolbelt-generation-why-teens-are-losing-faith-in-college.html
https://www.wsj.com/tech/tech-jobs-artificial-intelligence-cce22393
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
(0:00) Bestie intros + All-In Summit recap
(6:50) Fed cuts 50 bps: Economic tailwind, scary signal, or both?
(17:35) AI is coming for call centers; how agent training works
(33:41) US government wasting $50B for rural internet and EV charging stations
(47:10) Reflecting on some rough years in VC: is the model broken?
(1:07:18) Reacting to the first Trump/Kamala debate, what factors will make each candidate can win or lose the race
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Referenced in the show:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/19/investing/stocks-fed-rate-cut/index.html
https://x.com/brendancarrfcc/status/1836079197967532497
https://reason.com/2024/05/30/7-5-billion-in-government-cash-only-built-8-e-v-chargers-in-2-5-years
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/17/spacexs-starlink-has-2500-aircraft-under-contract.html
https://x.com/brendancarrfcc/status/1836435062994121053
https://x.com/brendancarrfcc/status/1834009499931463705
https://x.com/molson_hart/status/1835650978906857948
https://x.com/danprimack/status/1824506087116058665
https://x.com/Jason/status/1768073854545449228
https://chamath.substack.com/p/2023-annual-letter
https://x.com/Jason/status/1836820167449326063
https://www.axios.com/2024/04/03/us-global-venture-capital-q1
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
https://x.com/GrageDustin/status/1836178999178866766
"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
(0:00) Bestie intros! Jason goes "Founder Mode"
(1:03) All-In Summit lineup announcement
(9:01) Understanding "Founder Mode"
(32:52) Bolt is back in the news as Ryan Breslow goes "Founder Mode"
(52:28) Tech's Section 230 protections might be in danger after new ruling
(1:08:45) DOJ charges two Russians with infiltrating US media company
(1:22:42) Kamala's economic pivot
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Referenced in the show:
https://paulgraham.com/foundermode.html
https://x.com/chamath/status/1831003871344501069
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/PANW:NASDAQ
https://a16z.com/on-micromanagement
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0679762884
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ABNB:NASDAQ
https://www.amazon.com/Five-Dysfunctions-Team-Leadership-Fable/dp/0787960756
https://techcrunch.com/2022/01/14/online-checkout-bolt-decacorn
https://www.paymentsdive.com/news/bolt-ceo-ryan-breslow-steps-down/618058
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/10/business/bolt-start-up-ryan-breslow-investors.html
https://techcrunch.com/2023/07/21/bolt-ex-ceo-ryan-breslow-subject-of-sec-probe
https://techcrunch.com/2023/10/06/bolt-ceo-discusses-moving-on-after-sec-probe
https://www.axios.com/2024/08/22/bolt-investors-baffled
https://x.com/MikeSacksEsq/status/1828795866590896599
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JTcxIVlQfU
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1830440852411326782
https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1366266/dl
https://www.axios.com/2024/09/05/putin-harris-trump-2024-election-russia-interference
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/30/tech/2020-election-russia-disinformation/index.html
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-rise-of-vince-lombardi-democrats
In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
(0:00) Bestie intros: Buttons are back for fall
(1:48) Reid Hoffman joins the show, reminiscing on PayPal stories with Sacks
(7:52) State of AI: Nvidia, cluster buildouts, competition
(19:51) OpenAI's corporate structure and thoughts on Elon's lawsuit
(29:09) Inflection AI's deal structure with Microsoft, Lina Khan's impact on the tech industry
(41:27) Reid's perspective on Kamala being hot swapped for Biden, funding groups that attempted to keep RFK Jr. off ballots
(52:02) Reid's thoughts on growing antisemitism
(55:03) Thoughts on Kamala's economic proposals: price caps, wealth tax, etc.
(1:04:19) How Silicon Valley views both candidates, why Reid funded legal action against Trump
(1:19:03) Robert F. Kennedy Jr. joins the show and recaps his campaign and decision to back Trump
(1:31:13) Falling out with the Democratic Party
(1:37:26) Potential role in the Trump Administration, Make America Healthy Again agenda
(1:58:01) Sacks recaps RFK Jr's campaign, RFK Jr. on Trump's legacy
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Referenced in the show:
https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-second-quarter-fiscal-2025
Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
(0:00) Bestie intros!
(1:59) Labor department revises down nonfarm payrolls by 818K
(15:02) MIT publishes data from first incoming class post race-based admissions ban
(36:16) Decision 2024: State of the race, Polls vs prediction markets
(52:33) Tale of two tickets: Private sector vs. Public sector
(1:05:19) Kamala Harris supports Biden's tax plans, including a 25% wealth tax on those with more than $100M in assets
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https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg
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https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1826290040374243821
https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1664788807059660800
https://www.statista.com/statistics/269959/employment-in-the-united-states
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
https://polymarket.com/event/fed-interest-rates-september-2024?tid=1724345228774
https://x.com/chamath/status/1826360792351957141
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/15/us/harvard-asian-enrollment-applicants.html
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1826469365069271419
https://blockworks.co/news/polymarket-july-all-time-high-trading-volumes
https://www.crfb.org/blogs/kamala-harris-agenda-lower-costs-american-families
https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/131/General-Explanations-FY2024.pdf
Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
(0:00) Bestie intros: Jason gets a dish named after him!
(5:27) DOJ considers breaking up Google after last week's antitrust ruling
(28:10) Starbucks replaces CEO with Chipotle chief
(45:37) Work culture, WFH's damage to informal mentorship
(59:20) Election update: Harris flips the polls despite unclear policy; reports of price control focus
(1:21:27) Boeing's Starliner disaster strands two astronauts in space
(1:33:54) Russia/Ukraine update: Ukraine wins land in Kursk, Nordstream report
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https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg
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https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://x.com/harry_schuh/status/1822030518038491400
https://www.wsj.com/business/starbucks-replaces-ceo-as-activist-investors-push-for-changes-43c33bff
https://s203.q4cdn.com/326826266/files/doc_financials/2024/q3/Q3-FY24-Earnings-at-a-Glance.pdf
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CMG:NYSE
https://www.wsj.com/articles/low-wage-workers-climb-the-earnings-ladder-20acd8af
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzLCpmRad5o
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nearly-half-dell-full-time-215348261.html
https://x.com/Jason/status/1823826884112867609
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
https://x.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1823913395986305342
https://www.npr.org/2024/08/08/nx-s1-5068668/vance-walz-stolen-valor-military-record
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/08/15/kamala-harris-economic-policy-2024
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whip_Inflation_Now
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/WMT:NYSE
https://time.com/7009317/reintroduction-of-kamala-harris
https://x.com/TIME/status/1822951410956218385
https://www.axios.com/2024/08/11/kamala-harris-trump-taxes-tips-service-workers
https://www.socialcapital.com/ideas/2019-annual-letter
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BA:NYSE
https://www.azquotes.com/quote/1413855
https://spacenews.com/41891nasa-selects-boeing-and-spacex-for-commercial-crew-contracts
https://newatlas.com/space/first-manned-crew-dragon-flight-date
https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-26d9f1dddb4d24469b593b28f40d277b-lq
https://spaceflightnow.com/2016/08/02/boeing-nears-fix-for-cst-100-starliner-design-hitch
https://spacenews.com/crewed-starliner-test-flight-could-slip-to-2019
https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/launch/archive.html
https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2024-06-05-Boeing-Starliner-Spacecraft-Completes-Successful-Launch
https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2024-06-05-Boeing-Starliner-Spacecraft-Completes-Successful-Launch
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/27/nord-stream-gas-pipelines-damage-russia
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-real-story-da24839c
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/03/nord-stream-bombing-yacht-andromeda
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
(0:00) Bestie intros: Jason is back from COVID!
(3:55) Yen carry trade unravels, Japan's unique economic issues
(27:22) Recession odds growing, is the US already in a "lowkey recession"?
(45:46) Why Buffett is selling Apple and massively increasing Berkshire's cash position
(55:54) Major antitrust ruling against Google, predicting outcomes
(1:22:41) Kamala picks Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate
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Intro Music Credit:
https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://www.wsj.com/health/wellness/covid-guidelines-2024-cdc-symptoms-contagious-cdefb6b8
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/interest-rate
https://pebblewriter.com/the-yen-carry-trade-explained
https://www.statista.com/statistics/604424/median-age-of-the-population-in-japan
https://x.com/GoldmanSachs/status/1793998451291615316
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/10/business/archegos-bill-hwang-guilty.html
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-this-year
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SPY:NYSEARCA
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ABNB:NASDAQ
https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1799085407394845087
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ
https://www.ft.com/content/2aa3b542-d4e4-4afb-8d81-89bb734d7b17
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25032786-googleruling
https://x.com/Jason/status/1820823406503157764
https://x.com/chamath/status/1817893425137508474
https://www.vox.com/2018/10/31/18039528/tech-employees-politics-liberal-employers-candidates
https://www.natesilver.net/p/tim-walz-is-a-minnesota-nice-choice
https://x.com/NickFondacaro/status/1820840411335737852
https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1820918063966962143
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/08/06/politics/tim-walz-inside-harris-vp-pick
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/07/us/politics/vance-walz-military-record.html