January 2nd, 2025: Putin's Economic Crisis & Migrant Gangs Escalate Attacks Ahead Of Trump's Return

It's Thursday, the 2nd of January 2025, in case you were curious about the year. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. Kicking off 2025.

We'll have a preview of the domestic challenges that are facing Russian President Vladimir Putin, namely Russia's economy, which some would say is somewhat on the edge, on the brink, as the Kremlin continues to pour resources into its war on Ukraine.

Later in the show, we'll unpack Chinese President Xi Jinping's annual New Year's address. Did you catch that one? In which he attempted to show up confidence regarding Beijing's struggling economy, while warning that no one can stop China's, quote, reunification with Taiwan. Plus, an update on the violent, trend eragua gang, the TDA gang, as the group escalates attacks on US border crossings in Texas,

in an effort to embed more members in the U.S. before President-elect Trump takes office. And in today's back of the brief, Israeli spies who infiltrated deep into Hezbollah's terror network over the past year reveal some intimate details regarding the group's former leaders, including a top commander's plans to marry his four mistresses, not one, not two, but four mistresses. But first, today's PDB Spotlight.

2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for Vladimir Putin, but not just because of what's happening on the ground in Ukraine. While much of the focus has been on the battlefields, Putin is facing an equally critical fight, and that would be keeping his nation's economy afloat.

Now, I'm not an economist. You may have guessed that since listening to the PDB, but I had my team here at the President's Daily Brief, pull some data for me, and the numbers, while they frankly don't lie. Russia's economy is showing some serious cracks, and they're tied directly to the ongoing conflict.

If things spiral further, it won't just hurt Russia's finances. They could threaten Putin's hold on power itself. First, inflation in Russia is soaring. Prices for everyday essentials, things like eggs, fish, fruits and vegetables are climbing fast. Inflation is running at 9.5% this year, which means that Russians are paying nearly 10% more for goods and services than they did a year ago. And to fight this, Russia's central bank has set its interest rate

at a rather staggering 21%. Now, for context, that's the highest level in years. The high interest rate makes it more expensive, of course, to borrow money for things like homes or businesses, slowing down the economy even more.

Now, let's talk about manufacturing and services, the backbone, really, of any economy. These sectors are still growing, but just barely. We know this from something called the Purchasing Managers Index, or the PMI. Now, this is a survey that measures how businesses and industries like factories and retail are doing. A score above 50, well, that means growth, well, below 50, signals contraction.

Russia's manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.8 this past month, and that's barely above growth. And it's a drop from the previous month. In simpler terms, companies are producing less because costs are going up and demand is softening. It's like I'm teaching an economy class here. I guess that would be an economics class. I'm certainly not teaching an English class, apparently.

And even that, anemic amount of growth is fragile and heavily tied to the country's war spending. Factories have produced military equipment, ammunition, and other defense-related goods are operating at full capacity, driving up overall manufacturing output. But if that slows for any reason, well, Russia's economy will be in serious trouble.

The services sector, which includes things like restaurants and tourism, is also struggling. Really, they're not getting as many tourists in Russia as they used to. Its PMI fell to 51.2, meaning growth is slowing down there as well. Russians are tightening their belts, and businesses are feeling the pinch. And then there's the labor market. Now, at first glance, they look strong, and employment is a record low of 2.3%.

But here's the problem. That low number isn't because the economy is thriving. It's because so many workers have been pulled into the defense industry or the military to support the war effort. High paying jobs in these sectors are making it hard for other industries to find and keep workers. Construction, agriculture, and even tech companies are struggling to compete for employees. Labor shortages like this are a red flag. They mean businesses can't grow and it puts a drag on the entire economy.

And let's not forget the impact of international sanctions. While these haven't completely collapsed Russia's economy, thanks to their friends in China and Iran and North Korea, they are slowing down critical areas like the military industrial sector and technology. They haven't crushed Russian livelihoods yet, but they're blocking innovation and progress that will hurt down the road. So, here's why all this spells trouble for Putin. It turns out that war, well, it's pretty expensive.

In 2024, the Kremlin spending on the war with Ukraine reached a record 16.3 trillion rubles. That's around $148 billion, more than 8 percent of the country's GDP and 41 percent of its total budget.

It's draining Russia's resources and forcing the government into a classic dilemma, often referred to as guns or butter, a choice between military spending and funding for civilian needs. In Putin's case, the priority is clear. Defense spending is taking precedence, leaving, well, little room to address other critical areas of the economy.

A weak economy means lower public support for Putin's policies both at home and abroad, and combine that with sanctions and labor shortages, and Putin's ability to sustain the Great War, well, or any long-term conflict, becomes, quite frankly, a lot harder.

In short, the cracks in Russia's economy are growing, and they're directly tied to its war in Ukraine, more let's say Putin's war in Ukraine. How long he can paper over these cracks? Well, that remains an open question.

All right. Coming up next, we'll have a breakdown of Chinese President Xi Jinping's annual New Year's address, which included a veiled threat regarding Taiwan, plus the violent TDA gang is escalating attacks on US border crossings in Texas in an effort to embed more members in the US before President-elect Trump takes office in January. I'll have those stories when we come back.

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Welcome back to the PDP. Turning to China, President Xi Jinping delivered his annual New Year's Address on Tuesday, which he used to show up confidence around China's struggling economy. Look at this. It's all about the economy this morning, while wanting that no one can stop China's reunification with Taiwan.

Xi Jinping finds himself in a precarious position as 2025 begins, particularly with the return of Trump to the global stage, who's promised to hit China with aggressive tariffs once a second term gets underway. The prospect of a new trade war threatens to compound China's longstanding economic woes, including a ballooning debt, slow wage growth, and high youth unemployment. That's according to a report from the Financial Times.

China's economy, which is the second largest in the world behind the U.S., also continues to face broad deflationary pressures, as well as generally low business confidence and sagging consumer demand. This economic storm has driven skepticism among international investors about whether leaders in Beijing can turn the situation around anytime soon.

In his address, Xi claimed that the nation's economy is on, quote, an upward trajectory. Oh, but also gave a rare acknowledgment of the strains it's placed on his citizens. With consumer confidence at a low, Xi vowed to make economic growth his, quote, top priority. China just missed their growth target of 5% over the past year, if you can believe their books, with GDP coming in at 4.8%.

China has struggled to maintain healthy economic growth since lifting their zero-COVID policy back in 2023, which had driven their GDP down to just 3% in 2022. Not to mention the Chinese regime's failure to provide any transparency around the origins of COVID, but that's another story.

Still, she appealed to a citizen to stay optimistic, saying, quote, we can prevail with our hard work as always we grow in the wind and rain and we get stronger through hard times, end quote. She plans to pour even more resources into high-tech manufacturing to help drive growth, focusing state investments on electric vehicles, batteries, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence.

He added that China's extensive international ties, particularly their economic partnership with Russia, will also help offset their domestic stagnation. As our listeners are likely aware, back in February of 2022, just days before Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine, China and Russia agreed to a no-limits partnership, while all convenient was that.

While that relationship has bolstered trade between the two eastern powers and, frankly, has kept Putin's war machine operating, it comes with its own set of drawbacks. In response, the Biden administration, remember him? Well, they've sought to restrict China's access to computer chips, clamp down on Chinese investment into the US and target Chinese companies with economic sanctions.

With President-elect Trump gearing up for a further crackdown on Chinese economic interests, tensions between the U.S. and the Chinese Communist Party, the CCP, will likely only increase. Which brings us to the issue of Taiwan. China has significantly escalated their harassment of the island democracy over the past year, conducting regular military drills in the waters of the South China Sea.

China claims the democratically governed Taiwan as its own and is not ruled out using military force to retake the island if Taiwan's leadership, backed by the U.S., continues to resist what they call reunification.

She used his New Year's address to issue a fresh warning to the CCP's global adversaries, saying, quote, the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are one family. No one can sever our family bonds, and no one can stop the historical trend of national reunification, end quote. Well, he did not expand on his plans. We can likely further expect military escalations in the region as 2025 gets underway.

All right. Shifting to the U.S., the violent trend of a ragua gang are escalating efforts to breach the U.S. border in El Paso, Texas, issuing alarming new threats targeting security personnel as they attempt to expand their criminal campaign across the nation. All the TDA is threatening U.S. law enforcement. And that's interesting.

According to a Texas law enforcement memo obtained by the New York Post, the gang members armed with knives, tire irons, and broken bottles are vowing to attack Texas National Guard soldiers stationed at the border. Well, good luck with that, TDA gang members. It's reportedly part of a push to embed more members in the U.S. before President-elect Trump takes office. The memo reveals that just last week, 20 gang members attempted to force their way through a border gate in El Paso and warns plans for additional assaults.

I'm not a member of the Texas National Guard nor am I a border security expert, but I think there's an answer to this that might work. An anonymous informant reportedly tipped off Texas authorities, cautioning that these violent break-ins, quote, would continue every night.

The informant further warned, quote, they intend to cause harm, noting the gang members are likely to exploit moments when border guards are left without federal agents to assist them. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has taken an aggressive stance against TDA, declaring it a foreign terrorist organization and imposing mandatory 10-year minimum sentences for smugglers associated with the gang.

While not officially labeled as a terrorist organization, the Department of Homeland Security labeled the TDA a transnational criminal organization in July. A retired Homeland Security agent described the surge in violence as a reaction to the incoming administration stating, quote, you're saying that violence at the border because they know that it's going to change, meaning the situation at the border.

But the gang's operations extend far beyond the U.S. border. Fox News reports that the TDA gang has now spread to at least 19 states with recent arrests shedding light on the scope of its reach. In New York, police recently raided gang hideouts in Brooklyn and the Bronx, arresting nearly two dozen individuals.

Now, as we've discussed here on the PDB, the gang made national headlines last year in Aurora, Colorado by overwhelming an apartment complex and engaging in assaults, human trafficking and sex abuse. In December, authorities detained 14 individuals tied to a violent residence invasion in the area.

Meanwhile, in Tennessee, Interpol apprehended a high-ranking TDA member linked to human trafficking and terrorism in November. Additionally, the brother of the migrant who murdered Augusta University student Lake and Riley last February was known to have ties to TDA.

Compounding the situation, the TDA's operations increasingly involve partnerships with Mexican cartels who are aiding in the smuggling of weapons, drugs, and people while advancing in anti-American ideology. As a retired Homeland Security agent puts it, quote,

They hate the United States just like terrorists do." Now lawmakers, such as Texas Representative Tory Nells, attribute the surge in illegal crossings to the Biden administration's border policies. I didn't even know they had border policies, citing the rollback of numerous Trump-era restrictions. Representative Nells stated, quote, the sad reality is the Biden administration knows that violent criminals are coming into our country. They just don't care, end quote.

at the El Paso border crossing. The challenge for federal and state authorities is clear. Act swiftly and decisively to contain TDA's spread or risk further entrenchment of this transnational menace.

All right, coming up in the back of the brief, Israel's deep infiltration into Hezbollah's terror network over the past year reveals some intimate details regarding the group's former leaders, including a top commander's plans to marry his four mistresses. More on that when we come back.

In today's back of the brief, Israel's meticulous infiltration of Hezbollah's top ranks has unveiled startling details about the personal activities of its commanders, including the deceased fraud shulker, who was under such intense surveillance, even his plan to marry his four mistresses.

was uncovered. That's some actionable intelligence. A New York Times investigation published this week detailed how deeply Israeli operatives penetrated into Hezbollah's inner sanctum, planting listening devices in bunkers and hideouts. This unprecedented access not only allowed Israel to track leadership movements with surgical precision,

but also facilitated a series of deadly targeted strikes, demonstrating the sophistication of Israel's intelligence capabilities. Shoker, the senior commander of the Iranian-backed terror group, was long sought by Israel and the U.S. for his role in a 1983 Marine barracks bombing that killed 241 American service members. He was among the most heavily monitored Hezbollah leaders.

In addition to his operational activities, Israeli agencies tracked nearly every aspect of his personal life, including his, well, his intimate relationships. At one point, he arranged for Hezbollah's top cleric to perform marriage ceremonies over the phone for his four mistresses. Well, isn't that romantic? Shukar apparently felt uneasy about his affairs and turned to the group's highest religious authority for help.

As a reminder, Shooka's involvement in a deadly rocket attack on the Golan Heights in July, which killed 12 civilians, including children, provoked a rare and high profile strike by Israel on Beirut days later, which ultimately resulted in his death. But Shooka's demise was just one chapter in a broader campaign.

as previously reported on the PDB. Mossad operatives managed to permeate every level of Hezbollah's terrorist organization, leveraging human sources and advanced surveillance to uncover hideouts and track leadership movements. These efforts culminated in September with the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah for three decades. Despite warnings from his commanders to relocate, Nasrallah underestimated Israeli's intelligence for each and chose to remain in his fortified Beirut, Lebanon, and

Israeli F-15 fighter jets unleashed thousands of pounds of explosives on the bunker, eliminating Miss Rolla, and an Iranian general. The revelations about the extent of Israeli infiltration capturing both operational secrets and personal vulnerabilities paid a picture of a, well frankly, relentless intelligence apparatus determined to preempt threats and maintain their regional stability.

All right. That, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Thursday to January. If you have any questions for me that you'd like to address on the air, reach out to me, please, at pdb at the first TV dot com. And, of course, as you may already know by now, to listen to the show ad-free, well, it is simple. Become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdb premium dot com. It really is that simple. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today.

with the PDB afternoon bulletin and an update on that terrorist incident in New Orleans that shattered the peace and revelry on New Year's Eve. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.