It's Tuesday, 28 January. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. Today, we're starting in Moscow, and some bad news for President Vladimir Putin as the European Union extends its sanctions against Russia, raising fresh questions about the cracks that appear to be forming in Russia's economy.
Later in the show, we'll return to the Middle East where Hamas announced that eight of the remaining 26 hostages set to be released as part of the ongoing ceasefire are dead. Plus, President Trump is reportedly considering an asylum deal with El Salvador, allowing the U.S. to deport migrants there, even if they're not Salvadorans.
And finally, in today's back of the brief, the president fulfills a campaign promise with a new executive order, reinstating service members discharged for refusing the COVID-19 vaccine. But first, today's PDB Spotlight.
European leaders are putting the financial screws to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, who is reportedly growing increasingly concerned over the fragile state of Russia's wartime economy. The European Union voted Monday to renew its wide-ranging sanctions on Russia over the war in Ukraine, keeping existing sector-based bans on trade with Moscow intact, while also ensuring that more than $200 billion worth of seized Kremlin assets
remain frozen. While most of the EU's 27 member countries were on board with the sanctions renewal, there were concerns that they could lapse before the January 31 renewal deadline over protests by Hungary, according to a report from Reuters. As a reminder, under EU regulations, all 27 member countries must unanimously vote to renew these restrictions every six months.
But Hungarian leaders have been seeking assurances regarding their energy security ever since the war in Ukraine broke out. And by broke out I mean when Vladimir Putin's military invaded. And we're blocking the latest sanctions renewal talks in an attempt to leverage energy concessions from Ukraine.
Specifically, Hungary wanted EU leadership to persuade Ukraine to resume gas transits from Russia to Europe, claiming that EU sanctions on Russia had caused some $20 billion in financial damage to the Hungarian economy.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who by the way maintains a close relationship with Putin, had also requested that the EU consult with the Trump administration on the sanctions before moving forward, arguing it was time for a sanctions-free relationship between Europe and Russia. But President Trump, who has himself threatened the Putin regime with fresh sanctions over the war in Ukraine, did not back the Hungarian position, leaving Orban with little room to maneuver.
Still, EU leadership offered an olive branch to Hungary, issuing a statement on Monday pledging to continue conversations on moving oil through Ukraine. The statement, which was reviewed by Reuters, said the EU's executive body was ready to involve Hungary and Slovakia in the process, and came after Ukrainian President Zelensky said that he was willing to sign a contract to move gas from Azerbaijan to Europe using Ukraine's existing pipeline infrastructure.
The official pledge from the EU was enough to move the needle with Hungary, allowing the sanctions renewal to proceed. Kajakalas, the EU's foreign policy chief, underscored the importance of maintaining maximum economic pressure on Russia, stating, quote, this will continue to deprive Moscow of revenues to finance its war. Russia needs to pay for the damage that they are causing, end quote.
Indeed, it's hard to overstate the economic decline that the war on Ukraine has caused in Russia. The Putin regime is currently grappling with persistently high inflation, labor shortages, and interest rates that are sitting at an historic high of 21%.
Their manufacturing and services sectors are also struggling to stay afloat as costs skyrocket and consumer demand softens due to the soaring inflation, which was measured, frankly, at 9.5% last year. The sanctions from Europe and the US have further strained Moscow's finances, isolating them from critical foreign markets. Russian exports to the US, for example,
dropped from $29.6 billion in 2021 to just $2.9 billion in 2024.
Moscow is now hemorrhaging cash just to keep their war effort going, spending a record 16.3 trillion rubles or around $148 billion on the war effort in 2024. That's a staggering figure, representing more than 8% of Russia's GDP and 41% of its total budget.
According to Kremlin sources that spoke to Reuters, these metrics have Putin feeling anxious about the Russian economy's long-term prospects. An angered Putin reportedly scolded senior economic officials and Russian business leaders during a meeting in December over declines in private investment. He certainly wouldn't want to have to blame his own wartime adventurism.
But business leaders themselves are growing frustrated with the Putin regime over high interest rates. According to the sources, there is now a growing band of Russian elites who are pushing for Putin to seek a negotiated settlement to the war to alleviate their economic troubles.
Now, we should note that the Kremlin has tried to paint a rosy picture of the Russian economy, of course they have, citing robust exports of oil, gas, and minerals, despite western sanctions, as well as increases in their budget revenues as compared to 2023.
But international economists have questioned the Kremlin's numbers, saying the real story, including true GDP growth, and inflation rates as likely being suppressed by the Kremlin's propaganda machine to support their narrative, that the Russian economy is stable. Well, I for one am shocked that Putin might be fudging the numbers. He seems like, I don't know, such a transparent, honest sort of despot.
Now what this means for potential peace negotiations is, of course, anyone's guess, but the financial walls do appear to be closing in on Putin. President Trump has said arrangements are currently underway to set up a meeting with Putin that with timetable remains unclear.
Alright, coming up after the break, Hamas announces the tragic deaths of eight hostages set to be released, and President Trump eyes an asylum deal with El Salvador that could send non-Salvador and migrants there. I'll be right back. Welcome back to the PDB.
Hamas has, for the first time, confirmed that eight of the 26 Israeli hostages set for release under the first phase of the ongoing ceasefire agreement are deceased. According to a spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Hamas' disclosure aligns with Israeli intelligence assessments.
Under the first phase of the ceasefire, scheduled to conclude in early March, Hamas is to release 33 Israeli hostages, while Israel will free nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. Subsequent ceasefire negotiations are expected to address the release of remaining hostages and establish broader conditions for a lasting peace contingent on the withdrawal, of course, of IDF forces from Gaza.
As we've been tracking on the PDB, the truce remains tenuous and has already been tested. Over the weekend, Israel postponed the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza, accusing Hamas of violating the agreement by withholding the release of a high-priority female civilian hostage.
mediation efforts led by Qatar resolved that standoff resulting in the release of the woman and two other hostages by Friday with three additional captives freed on Saturday. As of now, thousands of displaced Palestinians are returning to northern Gaza via the Natsurim corridor.
However, among those held still captive is Kefir Beebus, a two-year-old, kidnapped just shy of turning nine months old during Hamas' seven October 2023 attacks. His case is captured international attention, while all other child hostages were released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners during a one-week ceasefire in November 2023, the Beebus family never emerged from Gaza.
Hamas said in a statement that the toddler, along with his mother and five-year-old brother, perished in an Israeli airstrike. Despite the report from Hamas, Israelis hold out hope for the family's safe return. As the ceasefire unfolds, another contentious issue emerged. President Trump's proposal to relocate Gaza's displaced population, an estimated 1.5 million people to Egypt and Jordan.
As we covered on Monday's PDB, Trump described the plan as a potential temporary or long-term solution to address Gaza's humanitarian crisis, stating, quote, we just clean out that whole thing, end quote. Now, Trump claims he's pressed both Jordan's king and Egypt's president to accommodate large numbers of Palestinian refugees, a move that he frames as essential, given over 90% of decimation to Gaza's housing infrastructure.
However, Trump's plan faces resistance, well, as you might expect. Egypt and Jordan worry that Israel would never allow the Palestinians to return to Gaza if they are made to leave. Currently, Jordan houses more than 2 million Palestinian refugees. Meanwhile, Egypt remains skeptical about the security implications of transferring Palestinians to the Sinai Peninsula, which borders Gaza, as a risk of expanding the conflict.
Despite the resistance, Trump, however, has leverage over Jordan. The debt-strapped U.S. ally relies heavily on American foreign aid. Jordan received over 1.6 billion in 2023, much of it for security forces and budget support.
As we recently reported on the PDB, the State Department froze all foreign aid worldwide, leaving just military assistance to Israel and Egypt untouched. This action could potentially be bargaining leverage to pressure Jordan into compliance to accept Palestinian refugees in return for USAID.
Trump's proposal has also drawn significant international and domestic backlash. Germany, along with other EU nations, rejected the idea, asserting that Gaza's population, quote, must not be expelled. European Arab leaders emphasized the enduring instability in Gaza stems from the lack of viable political resolution. Well, there's a statement of the obvious.
Even Trump's allies appear divided. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham dismissed the relocation plan as impractical, urging continued dialogue with Middle Eastern leaders to identify feasible alternatives. As the ceasefire progresses and debates over Gaza's future intensify,
The stakes for regional stability will remain high. Both the success of the hostage exchanges and the broader resolution of Gaza's political crisis are pivotal to securing a durable resolution to the decades-long conflict if one actually exists.
Okay, turning to US domestic issues. The Trump administration is reportedly negotiating a safe third country agreement with the government of El Salvador. The agreement would reroute asylum seekers to the Central American nation as part of President Trump's promised crackdown on illegal immigration.
According to sources familiar with the discussions, the policy would enable U.S. immigration officials to deport migrants regardless of their country of origin to El Salvador, where they would be required to seek asylum instead of in the United States.
This marks a revival of Trump's earlier effort to broker a similar deal during his first term with Guatemala, an initiative that ultimately collapsed and was rescinded under then-President Biden. This resurgent plan underscores Trump's determined stance on restricting immigration and fortifying border security through aggressive measures.
Central to the success of this initiative is the cooperation of the Salvadoran president, Naib Bukhale, a leader whose hardline anti-gang measures, including mass incarceration campaigns targeting criminal groups like MS-13, armed in both widespread acclaim and scrutiny. The sources confirm Trump and Bukhale discussed bolstering cooperation on immigration enforcement and tackling transnational criminal networks during a recent phone call.
Among their focal points was Venezuela's trendroagua gang, or the TDA. The gang captured national headlines last year, becoming notorious for its extortion, smuggling, and violence. The group has been a growing concern for the Trump administration, which has sought to designate TDA as a terrorist organization.
as we previously reported on the PDB. Trump's directive to begin the designation process came just hours after his inauguration, signaling his intent to escalate efforts to dismantle the gang's U.S. web of operations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has pledged to prioritize curbing mass migration, is slated to visit El Salvador in early February as part of a broader Latin American tour aimed at solidifying the agreement and other immigration initiatives.
Rubio's visit, said to begin later this week, underscores the importance of Bouquetlet's government as a strategic ally in Trump's immigration agenda.
These efforts are part of a larger Trump administration strategy to tighten U.S. borders through a combination of physical and policy barriers. The administration has already reinstated the, quote, remain in Mexico policy, which requires asylum claimants to remain outside the U.S. while their cases are reviewed. Expanded Border Agents Authority to conduct rapid deportations and deployed military planes to facilitate migrant removals.
Notably, active duty troops have been sent to construct additional barriers along the border, and Trump's emergency declaration has unlocked substantial resources to bolster enforcement capabilities. If implemented, the Safe Third Country Agreement would add another layer to Trump's immigration overhaul, effectively externalizing asylum responsibilities to partner nations, yet the plan is not without hurdles, including potential legal challenges and diplomatic resistance.
Whether this initiative will actually withstand scrutiny at home and abroad. Well, that remains uncertain. But for now, the Trump administration appears to be standing firm in its push to reshape the US immigration landscape. All right. I'm coming up in the back of the brief. The president signs an executive order to reinstate service members discharged for refusing the COVID-19 vaccine, fulfilling a key campaign promise. I'll be right back.
In today's back of the brief, we've got some good news for American service members who were given the boot from the military for refusing to take the COVID-19 vaccine. Under an executive order signed by President Trump on Monday, all American troops dismissed by the Pentagon over the vaccine will be immediately reinstated with full back pay and benefits.
The order also requires that those impacted by the vaccine mandate are restored to their prior rank. That's according to a report from Fox News. The action makes good on a key campaign promise from Trump who had long vowed to rehire the acts service members and offer them an apology on behalf of the government, arguing that they had been, quote, unjustly expelled.
Defense Secretary, the newly confirmed Defense Secretary P. Tech Seth, made the same pledge during his recent confirmation hearing, saying that he stood by Trump's promise. For context, the U.S. Armed Forces instituted a vaccine mandate for all military personnel in August of 2021 under the orders of then-President Joe Biden.
While the vast majority of active duty service members received the vaccine, some 8,400 troops were forced out of the military for refusing to take the shot. The mandate was dropped in January 2023, but those who previously refused were not reinstated.
Instead, the Biden administration told those impacted by the mandate to reapply for service. Oh, that's nice. Though only 43 of the more than 8,000 affected troops elected to return to service under President Biden's leadership. The issue turned into a major headache for the Biden administration and became a rallying point for Republicans fed up with government overreach linked to the pandemic.
Last year, more than 200 active and retired service members signed an open letter demanding that the Biden administration hold U.S. military leaders accountable for the vaccine mandate, arguing that it caused irreparable harm to service members and their families.
And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Tuesday, 28 January. Now, if you'd like to listen to the show ad-free, well, that's a simple thing to do. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.