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How are Quebec businesses faring leading up to the holiday season?

en

November 18, 2024

TLDR: Quebec businesses see increased foot traffic but lower sales this year, possibly due to budget-conscious shopping or holiday season anticipation; analyzed by Pasquale Pizzi on the podcast with Andrew Carter.

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In this insightful podcast episode featuring Pasquale Pizzi, head of Business Development at Moneris, host Andrew Carter explores the dynamics of Quebec's retail landscape as the holiday season approaches. Despite increased foot traffic, Quebec businesses are facing challenges as consumers exhibit more budget-conscious shopping behavior. Here’s a comprehensive summary of the key points discussed in the episode.

Introduction to Current Trends

  • Higher Foot Traffic but Lower Sales: This year, Quebec has seen an uptick in foot traffic; however, this customer influx is not translating into higher sales figures.
  • Consumer Behavior Shift: Shoppers seem to be making more frequent purchases, but the value of each transaction has decreased, indicating a shift towards more budget-conscious spending.

Key Insights from Transaction Data

  • Statistical Analysis by Moneris: Moneris processes one in three transactions across Canada, providing robust data that informs retail trends.
  • Transaction Count vs. Size:
    • The number of transactions increased significantly in February, with growth rates up 13% year-over-year.
    • Conversely, transaction sizes have seen a decline, with a notable dip as high as 6% year-over-year as of March.
  • September Update: Recent data shows that transaction counts remain stable compared to last year, while transaction sizes are down by 3%.

Predictions for the Holiday Season

  • Critical Importance of Holiday Sales: As businesses approach the holiday season, the shift in consumer behavior becomes particularly crucial. Year-end sales are vital for retailers hoping to close the year on a positive note.
  • Historical Spend Data: Analysis of previous years suggests that while consumers are shopping more often, they are spending less per transaction. In 2022, overall spend in Quebec increased by 4%, driven by a surge in transaction count despite reduced transaction sizes.

Black Friday and Holiday Shopping Trends

  • Black Friday Dominance: Pizzi notes that Black Friday remains a key shopping day for Quebecers, with spending up 23% week-over-week during the holiday season and 31% growth specifically in Quebec.
  • Retailer Expectations: Given the current trends, there is hope that increased activity during Black Friday and following events will boost sales figures, as transaction counts continue to be a significant factor in revenue.
  • Consumer Spending Habits: The data reflects that while shoppers are visiting stores more frequently, they are modifying their spending behavior to accommodate rising prices, thereby affecting the overall sales outcome for retailers.

Conclusion

  • Understanding Retail Dynamics: The conversation highlights the complex relationship between consumer behavior, economic factors, and retail performance as the holiday season looms. While increased traffic is a positive sign, retailers must navigate the challenges posed by smaller transaction sizes.
  • Hope for a Strong Finish: With the holiday sales period on the horizon, retailers are keenly watching consumer trends, with aspirations that this shopping season will help counterbalance the sales downturn seen earlier in the year.

Final Thoughts

"Wishing all your listeners an amazing holiday season and happy shopping,” says Pizzi, reflecting the optimism that retailers need to carry into the busiest shopping time of the year. This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in the intersection of consumer behavior and retail strategies in Quebec as 2023 draws to a close.

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