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    Fed signals fewer cuts in 2024

    enSeptember 21, 2023

    Podcast Summary

    • Fed Signals More Rate Hikes, Corporate Buybacks DecreaseThe Fed plans to raise interest rates again and keep them high until inflation decreases, causing a decrease in corporate buybacks and potentially affecting the stock market and economy.

      The Federal Reserve is becoming more hawkish on interest rates and the trend of corporate buybacks is decreasing significantly. The Fed, led by Chair Jay Powell, signaled that they will likely raise interest rates one more time this year and will hold them at restrictive levels until inflation decreases sustainably. This pause in rate hikes did not stop the 2-year US treasury yield from reaching a 17-year high. Additionally, US companies are issuing fewer share buybacks, which had been a significant source of demand and profit enhancement in recent years. Analysts believe this trend is likely to continue. The Fed's actions and the decrease in corporate buybacks could have significant impacts on the stock market and the broader economy.

    • Decline in Corporate Buybacks: Industry Factors and Economic PressuresBuybacks have decreased due to industry-specific issues and macroeconomic pressures, with banks reducing their participation and companies facing higher capital costs and expensive borrowing. Critics argue for investment in real projects or employee compensation, while some investors prefer dividends.

      Corporate buybacks, which involve companies repurchasing their own shares to increase demand and drive up stock prices, have declined due to a combination of industry-specific factors and macroeconomic pressures. Banks, which were once major buyers, reduced their buybacks due to regulatory expectations and economic instability. Meanwhile, other companies face higher capital expenditure costs and more expensive borrowing, forcing them to be more cautious with their spending. Critics argue that buybacks are a form of financial engineering and suggest that companies should invest in real projects or improve employee compensation instead. Some investors also prefer dividends over buybacks. However, the decline in buybacks isn't universally seen as a problem, as some argue that they can benefit shareholders and help companies manage their capital structure. Ultimately, the impact of this trend on the market remains to be seen.

    • Impact of Bidenomics and decrease in buybacks on stock pricesBidenomics policies may impact stock prices due to subsidies and shift towards industrial policy. Buybacks, driven by low-interest rates, are expected to decrease significantly, potentially widening the gap between larger, cash-rich companies and smaller ones.

      The trend of corporate buybacks, driven by low-interest rates and the need to address supply chain issues, is expected to decrease significantly. This reduction in buybacks could have a significant impact on stock prices and potentially widen the gap between larger, cash-rich companies and smaller ones. At the same time, the Biden administration's economic policies, known as Bidenomics, are a major focus of American politics and the global economy. Bidenomics includes initiatives like subsidies for green energy and infrastructure, and while it has been met with skepticism, it also represents a shift back towards industrial policy. In the coming weeks, the Financial Times will release a series of podcasts, "Bidenomics," exploring this complex and important issue.

    • Bidenomics: A Shift Away from Reaganomics and NeoliberalismThe Biden administration is implementing a new economic approach, Bidenomics, which includes the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS Act, and infrastructure spending, marking a significant change from Reaganomics and neoliberalism. The impact on ordinary Americans and the 2024 election remains to be seen.

      The Biden administration is shifting the focus of American economic policy away from Reaganomics and neoliberalism with the implementation of Bidenomics. This new approach, which includes the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS Act, and infrastructure spending, marks a significant change in direction. However, politically, it remains to be seen if this change will have a tangible impact on ordinary Americans in time for the 2024 election. During the discussion, Brian Deese, former head of the National Economic Council, provided insights into the conception and implementation of these measures. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, head of the World Trade Organization, offered her perspective on the international implications of Bidenomics. The Bank of England met today to discuss interest rates, with inflation data from August showing unexpectedly lower inflation. Stay updated on these and other business news stories by visiting ft.com and clicking the links in our show notes.

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