December 26th, 2024: Top 6 Global Stories of 2024: A Countdown with Mike Baker

It's Thursday, 26 December. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed.

Today, the day after Christmas, of course, we're doing something a little different. As the year comes to a close, we're taking stock of the events that reshaped global geopolitics. We'll be looking back at the top stories in foreign policy and national security, stories that didn't just make headlines, but altered the direction of the year ahead.

Now, this isn't a ranked list, okay? It's not in any particular order of importance. Each story essentially stands on its own. All right, let's get started. We're calling this first segment a terrible year for tickron. That could be the title of a Broadway musical, although probably not a very entertaining one.

Okay, topping the list for Tehran's troubles, the collapse of the Assad government in Syria. 50 years of Assad family rule came to a dramatic and decisive end just weeks ago when rebel forces swept through Damascus toppling President Assad's regime. The fall of his regime is one of the most significant geopolitical ships in the Middle East in decades.

For Iran, the implications, frankly, are profound. The Assad regime was a critical pillar of Tehran's so-called axis of resistance, a network of allies and proxies stretching across the region. Syria served as Iran's corridor to funnel arms, funds, and logistical support to Hezbollah, its crown jewel in Lebanon. With Assad gone, that corridor is, frankly, severed, and Tehran's regional strategy has taken a devastating hit.

But the fallout extends beyond Iran. Syria has now become a geopolitical chessboard with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran scrambling for influence as the country's future remains uncertain. And while our focus in this segment is on Iran, there's also Russia. Let's not forget them. Assad's closest military backer. Russia is also maneuvering to secure its interests as a post-Assad-Syria takes shape.

Putin's military spent years helping Assad suppress and kill Syrians in order to maintain power. And now, with two key military bases in Syria, the question is whether the new Syrian leadership has any interest in working with Assad's former BFF.

The big questions for 2025. Can Syria stabilize and form a lasting government or will extremist groups capitalize on the chaos? Will Iran attempt to destabilize the country further in a desperate bid to restore its influence? And what role, if any, will the U.S. play as this power vacuum unfolds?

Our second story related to the Iranian regime marks an unprecedented escalation, the direct conflict between Israel and Iran. For the first time, these two adversaries moved beyond proxy battles and covert operations to openly exchange missile fire. It shattered decades of shadow warfare and raised fears, of course, of a regional conflagration.

It began back in April when an Israeli airstrike targeted Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria, reportedly killing senior members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC. The Iranian regime retaliated with a barrage of ballistic missiles aimed directly at Israeli territory. Within hours, Israel countered with strikes on military installations inside Iran, marking the first ever direct engagement between the two nations.

Then, in October, tensions erupted again. Israel conducted a series of targeted assassinations, eliminating Hamas leader Ishmael Hanye in Tehran. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other high-ranking IRGC generals also went. Iran responded with yet another missile barrage, further testing Israel's Iron Dome defense system.

For decades, Israel and Iran fought each other in the shadows, through groups like the Iranian backed and built Hezbollah at Hamas. Israel relied on sabotage and targeted strikes to blunt Iran's nuclear ambitions. But this year, well, this year broke that mold. The open exchange of fire has not only exposed the risk of a broader war, but underscored Iran's advancing missile capabilities. It also laid bare Iran's vulnerabilities.

Here's what we're watching in 2025. Will this year's clashes remain isolated incidents or are we entering a new more dangerous phase of open Iran-Israel hostilities? Will Iran attempt to rebuild their broken proxies in an effort to continue their often stated objective of removing Israel from the map? And how far is Israel willing to go in its mission to stop Iran's nuclear ambitions?

Those are the first two major stories of 2024, both defining regional moments in a year that saw the Iranian regime face unprecedented setbacks. All right. Coming up, we'll move to Europe, where the war between Ukraine and Russia continued throughout 2024 to shape global power dynamics. I'll be right back.

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Welcome back to the PDB. Next up in our look at 2024 is the war in Ukraine, which is about to enter its third year without major changes to the battlefield. Both sides dug in, and the result has been mounting casualties, massive economic strain, and what feels like a World War I stalemate.

But despite the slow grind of trench warfare, 2024 wasn't without its surprises. This year, North Korea, bizarrely, got directly involved, sending some 10,000 troops to fight alongside Russian forces. North Korean boots on the ground, yeah, that's a certain headline for 2024.

For Russia, it's been a way to shore up their struggling manpower. And for North Korea, because they're not doing it pro bono, it's a rare chance to flex their military muscles and deepen ties with Moscow. Not to mention, to barter their soldiers for Russian weapons technology and assistance.

Now, as the war prepares to move into its fourth year, think about that, its fourth year, Europe is feeling the squeeze. The war has driven up energy prices, fueled inflation, and sparked heated debates across NATO about how long the alliance can sustain its support for Ukraine. And in the US, that same debate is growing louder. A.D. Ukraine has become a divisive issue in Washington with some questioning if it's time to rethink just how much we're sending.

And then there is the wildcard, North Korea's involvement. It raises the stakes in a way that we haven't seen before, creating more uncertainty about where this war could go next.

Looking ahead to 2025, there's one big question, and that is, can there be a diplomatic solution, a negotiated settlement? With a new President-elect Donald Trump entering the White House and reportedly focused on striking deals, there is a chance so we could see both sides come to the negotiating table. But will both sides be willing to make compromises after the years of bloodshed? And how will North Korea's involvement shape these talks, if at all?

Our fourth major story of the year is a direct result of our third, and that would be the expansion of NATO. Finland officially joined NATO on April 4, 2023, becoming the Alliance's 31st member, and Sweden then followed suit this year on March 7, marking a historic enlargement of the Alliance into Northern Europe.

Now this expansion does have significant implications. With Sweden and Finland on board, NATO has bolstered its presence in the Arctic and Baltic regions, enhancing its ability to respond to potential Russian aggression. This move further isolates Moscow, which has long viewed NATO's eastward expansion as a direct threat to its sphere of influence.

Looking ahead to 2025, several questions arise. How will Russia respond to NATO's strength in northern flank? Will this lead to increased military posturing or provocations from Moscow? And what does this mean for Europe's overall security strategy? The integration of Sweden and Finland into NATO not only shifts the military balance but influences diplomatic relations and defense policies across the continent.

Okay, for our fifth story, we turn to what we on the PDB have been calling Russia's shadow war in Europe. It's a hybrid warfare campaign that's escalated significantly over the past year. Since its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has increasingly turned to clandestine sabotage and hybrid attacks across NATO countries, attempting to destabilize the alliance and undermine support to Kyiv.

According to a report by the Helsinki Commission, there have been roughly 150 Kremlin-backed hybrid operations on NATO soil since 2022. The pace of these operations has only accelerated throughout 2024, with the Kremlin's methods becoming more sophisticated and dangerous.

These hybrid operations have taken many forms. Cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, including train stations and energy grids, have caused widespread disruptions. Mass bomb threats, often traced to Russian servers, have been reported from the Baltic states to southern Europe. Russia's operatives have also targeted NATO military installations, including attempted bomb plots at US bases in Germany and espionage efforts aimed at American military sites in Europe.

even Russian orchestrated terrorism plots were thwarted, such as a sabotage attempt at a paint factory in Poland and a bomb plot near Paris's Charles de Gaulle airport. Putin is conducting this effort with an eye towards plausible deniability. Many of these operations are outsourced to cyber criminals, low-level operatives, or even allied nations like Belarus, allowing Moscow, supposedly, to maintain a veneer of separation while spreading chaos across Europe.

Now, you ask yourself, why does this matter? Well, it's a good question to ask yourself. Russia's hybrid warfare. It's not just about creating isolated incidents. It's part of a broader strategy to erode NATO's resolve and deter Western nations from supporting Ukraine. By destabilizing European societies and undermining confidence in NATO's collective defense, Moscow hope it's too weak in the alliance at its core.

As we look to 2025, NATO faces critical questions. How can it confront these hybrid threats while continuing to support Ukraine? Are the alliance's members prepared to ramp up investments and adopt a wartime mindset to counter this campaign, as the NATO Secretary-General suggested? And how can the US and its allies effectively deter Russia's provocations without escalating into broader conflict?

Okay. Coming up in our final segment, we'll turn our attention to Asia, where China's aggression toward Taiwan and North Korea's escalating missile tests dominated headlines in 2024. I'll be right back.

For our fifth story in today's look back at 2024, we're heading to Asia to look at China's escalating aggression toward Taiwan, a stark reminder of Beijing's one China policy. That policy asserts that Taiwan is a breakaway province, not a sovereign nation, and China's President Xi Jinping has vowed to retake it by force if necessary.

This year, Beijing ramped up its military pressure on Taiwan with some of the most aggressive actions we've seen to date. In October, China conducted massive military drills that surrounded Taiwan, a clear message to the world and the Taiwan's leaders that Beijing isn't backing down. Over 125 Chinese aircraft and 34 naval vessels formed a ring around the island during these exercises.

Chinese officials described the drills as, quote, punishment after Taiwan's president gave a speech valing to resist annexation and defend the island's sovereignty. Then in December, China staged another show of force. This time Beijing deployed nearly 90 ships, including warships and Coast Guard vessels along Taiwan's waters in what Taiwanese officials called one of China's biggest ever military exercises.

Nearly 50 Chinese aircraft were also detected near the island in just a 24-hour period. The exercises came in response to the Taiwanese President's visit to the United States earlier in the month, further of course heightening tensions. These provocations, the military drills, are part of a long-term strategy to intimidate Taiwan and to test the resolve of the United States and its allies.

Taiwan sits at the heart of the global semiconductor supply chain, and any conflict there could, of course, have devastating consequences for the world economy. But beyond that, China's moves are a direct challenge to the US-led order in the Indo-Pacific.

Looking ahead to 2025, the big question is, just how far China is willing to push its military aggression? And how prepared are Taiwan, the US and allied nations, to deter a potential conflict? Will Beijing's provocations stop short of an invasion? Or is it laying the groundwork for a takeover in the not too distant future?

Okay, the sixth and final story in our look at 2024 that I wanted to highlight today is North Korea's full speed push to expand its missile program. This year, Kim Jong-un's regime ramped up its weapons tests with each launch, frankly more brazen than the last.

One of the biggest headlines came on October 31st. No, look at that, Halloween. When North Korea launched what he called the world's strongest, in quotes, the world's strongest intercontinental ballistic missile. Now, of course, a lot of that was typical Pyongyang propaganda. But the test itself, frankly, was no joke.

The missile flew higher and stayed in the air longer than anything they've tested before. It's a big step toward their goal of building a nuclear-armed ICBM that could hit, potentially, the U.S. mainland.

Now, they're not quite there yet. Experts say North Korea still has some work to do, especially with figuring out how to make its warhead's survival entry into the Earth's atmosphere. But here's where things get even more concerning. Moscow might be lending a hand. And when I say might be, I mean, Moscow is lending a hand.

North Korea's blossoming romance with Putin is really, frankly, a simple relationship, trading weapons and now troops in exchange for technical knowledge. If Moscow helps fill in the gaps in a significant way, the technical challenges that North Korea has been facing could disappear a lot faster than anyone expected.

Meanwhile, the missile tests have ramped up tensions across the region. Japan and South Korea are beefing up their missile defenses and the U.S. has been stepping up joint military drills with its allies in the Indo-Pacific to send a clear message to Pyongyang.

And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Thursday, 26th December. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb at thefirsttv.com. And as I suspect you know by now, to listen to the show, add free and simply become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. Couldn't be any simpler.

I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.