In this week's episode of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, hosted by Tom Busby, Caroline Hepker, and Doug Krizner, the key topics discussed include the upcoming October jobs report in the US, the state of diversity and inclusion in the UK's financial services sector, and a preview of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting alongside Hong Kong's FinTech Week.
US Jobs Report Preview
The episode opens with a deep dive into the October jobs report, which is set to release non-farm payroll data on Friday at 8:30 AM. Tom interviews Michael McKee, Bloomberg’s international economics and policy correspondent, to gather insights on what to expect from the report. Key points include:
- Impact Factors: Two hurricanes and an ongoing Boeing strike may heavily influence job numbers, creating a wide range of forecast estimates (from zero to over 200,000 jobs).
- Unemployment Rate Outlook: The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at around 4.1%, indicating that despite external shocks, the labor market's stability may be preserved.
- Hurricane Aftermath: The report highlights the complexities of counting jobs lost in less populated areas hit hard by the storms, where traditional models may not provide an accurate picture.
- Boeing Strike Effects: The Boeing strike is anticipated to affect supply chains significantly, impacting employment data in sectors related to aerospace components.
Tech Earnings Insights
Moving on, the podcast discusses the earnings reports from major tech companies such as Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms, known collectively as the Magnificent Seven. Analyst Mandip Singh shares insights:
- Tesla's Earnings: Tesla's recent earnings demonstrated strong demand and reassured investors about its future performance, which bodes well for other key tech firms.
- AI Impact: All major tech companies are leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to boost profits, particularly in the cloud computing space. Microsoft’s Azure and Alphabet’s Google Cloud are expected to see significant contributions from AI initiatives.
- Expectations: Singh suggests that Alphabet has the lowest expectations, creating potential for a positive surprise, while other companies like Meta may face mixed reactions based on their earnings outlooks and spending.
Diversity and Inclusion in the UK
Caroline Hepker covers the state of diversity and inclusion within the UK's financial services, particularly in light of Black History Month:
- Diversity Commitment Issues: There is evidence indicating a rollback on diversity commitments made post-George Floyd’s murder, with industry insiders noting a lack of follow-through on previous pledges.
- Talent Attrition: Research indicates that Black representation struggles in financial services, with high attrition rates, particularly at mid to senior levels.
- Proposed Changes: Insights into mandatory reporting of ethnicity pay gaps are noted as a possible step forward for fostering equity and transparency in corporate practices.
- Long-Term Efforts Needed: Experts, including Mark Lomas from Lloyd's of London, stress the necessity of targeted efforts to retain diverse talent, emphasizing the importance of cultural change within organizations.
Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting
Doug Krizner shifts focus to Asia, discussing the anticipated Bank of Japan meeting:
- Interest Rate Speculation: While there is speculation surrounding a potential interest rate hike, insights indicate that the BOJ might opt for a more cautious approach, following market volatility after previous rate adjustments.
- Inflation and Currency Concerns: With the yen fluctuating around 151 against the dollar, there's ongoing discussion about the BOJ's strategy regarding intervention to stabilize the currency while fostering economic growth through controlled inflation.
Hong Kong FinTech Week
The episode wraps up with a preview of Hong Kong’s FinTech Week, set to explore digital assets and innovation:
- Event Scope: The event is expected to attract around 30,000 attendees from various jurisdictions, showcasing the evolving landscape of fintech in the region.
- Regulatory Developments: The episode discusses the regulatory environment in Hong Kong, highlighting the gradual licensing of retail crypto exchanges and the potential implications based on global regulatory trends.
Conclusion
This week's podcast episode of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend provides a comprehensive overview of critical economic indicators, corporate performance, and social challenges that could shape financial markets and corporate strategies in the upcoming week. Investors and stakeholders are encouraged to stay informed on these developments as they navigate the evolving landscape.