We talk about the impact of the potentially stronger dollar and what that means for risk on assets and how much stronger and how much more can strengthen from here. We talk about tariff threats. And of course, we talk about the potential for the Bitcoin strategic reserve amongst many other topics. So there's a lot going on here, but sit back, get ready. And I hope you guys have fun with this banger from the one and only, Mr. Luke Roman.
celebrating 10 years. You are listening to Bitcoin Fundamentals by the Investors Podcast Network. Now for your host, Preston Pish.
Hey, everyone. Welcome to the Investors Podcast. Luke, welcome back to the show. Great to be here. Nice to talk with you again, my friend. Always a pleasure, Luke. This is where I want to start off. So as everybody knows, I'm an avid reader of your newsletter. And recently you had a comment talking about this.
18% when we've had the federal debt receipts when they get 18% of the GDP, we've always gotten a recession, always gotten a recession. And let me pull up a post here because you are, let me pull up your actual article here because I think that when people see this, it's kind of crazy the chart that was posted. And this was Tom McClellan that posted this chart.
And I guess my question is how people wrap their head around this, because the part that I find really interesting is this underline that you have in the note that says a recession is mathematically certain to trigger a US debt spiral of USD up US treasury yields up stocks down.
economy down until either the US policymakers inject USD liquidity or the US and global financial system and economies collapse. So this is like a really bold statement. Help the generalist or the person who's not like intimately involved in macro understand this from the simplest way that you can describe it.
Yeah, so the simplest way I can describe it is we have a debt problem from multiple angles. The United States cannot get more than 18% of GDP in tax receipts without causing a recession. That goes back to 1933. And even the chart shows in summer of 2022, we had two straight quarters of GDP declines.
When you have GDP decline with debt to GDP at 125%, number one, number two, with a deficit already at 7% of GDP, in the last three recessions, US deficit to GDP has risen by 600 basis points to GDP, 800 basis points, 1200 basis points.
We're already at 125% that the GDP. If we have a recession, the deficit will go from 7% of GDP to 13% to 20% of GDP. Yeah. Which is like flashing flashing red lights, right? Like this is flashing flash. Yeah. And what does that mean for the average listener? It means the US would have a severe recession and treasure yields would go up sharply, not down. Like they have always done in America, number one.
Number two, because foreigners, because of the structure of the dollar system and how it has been allowed to evolve, foreigners have borrowed $13 trillion in dollar denominated debt. Dollars, globe reserve currency, it's a major funding currency, euro dollar system, everything you hear a lot of people talk about. The recession would drive the dollar up as it tends to do in a recession.
That puts foreigners who have borrowed 13 trillion, and that's just short. They are short 13 trillion dollars in dollar denominated debt. They will get short squeezed. They desperately need to raise dollars to cover their dollar short, but.
Three, four and her own fifty seven trillion dollars of dollar denominated assets. Twenty two trillion dollars net, which is where the liquidity. That's where the liquidity comes from. If it's piggyback. All right. Yeah. All that is is you hear, oh, the US runs deficit after deficit after deficit.
Foreigners at surplus, after surplus, after surplus, and then it's recycled back into US stocks and bonds. Yeah. And they've been borrowing against the other side to get closer to net flat. They're not net flat. So 0.3 to all of this is as US rates go up in recession, because US deficit blows out to 13 to 20% GDP one.
Two foreigners are short so you're going to have them getting short squeezed on their thirteen trillion point three is they are going to sell dollar assets until their hands bleed as we used to say on the sales desk you know it's an old futures thing like take it take it take it take it right to their hands bleed and they will sell what they can not what they want to necessary what you can sell or the eight and a half trillion dollars of treasuries first.
So again, you're going to have the U.S. deficit at 13% to 20% of GDP in a recession and foreigners adding on to that with up to $8.5 trillion more. And there's no balance sheet. There's no private sector balance sheet. Big enough to take this on. Banks, by the way, have been regulated into buying, dah, dah, dah, treasuries as a reserve asset. Banks are going to be taking losses in a recession. They're going to need to be selling treasuries. This isn't speculation we saw in 1223.
with Silicon Valley and signature what were they trying to sell to raise cash to pay out the positors treasuries. So every and all by the way mom and pop or all of a sudden recession out of a job. Well who's been the biggest buyer marginal buyer treasures mom and pop. There's no buyer and so you end up what in plain English the entire treasury market will turn seller in a US recession you will have
People can't fathom the trillions of net effective deficits, right? US deaths will be 13 to 20% of GDP. That'll be more than big enough to drive yields up in a recession. However, you're going to have banks selling alongside that. You're going to have foreigners selling alongside that. You're going to mom and pop selling alongside that. And there's only one buyer. And that's why you get to this very binary outcome of call apps or fed prints it.
I'm sure you can see the smirk on my face as you're saying all this because my immediate thought when you're talking about equity is basically being the relief valve for people to raise liquidity. They're going to sell what they can to raise the dollars that they're short. And I'm looking at this incoming administration and I'm looking at Donald Trump. And I'm saying this guy is never going to let the equity market sell off because it's almost like his entire, I mean, I'm just thinking about his last time he was in office. He was literally signing
stock market charts that were bidding into the close on Friday, literally putting his signature on them and passing them around and tweeting about it. So like, I just don't see that happening, which means the dollar has to be the relief valve. And I think that's where you're going with your comments, right? They're going to devalue the dollar. He's not going to let equity sell off in any type of capacity that's, you know, more than 20% or more. At least I don't think that he would allow that to happen. And so then what's the mechanism? Does he have that control?
Or is the the treasury and fed acting independently or talk us through what you actually think is going to play out here? Because I think he's just going to the dollar is going to be the relief. I just don't see that happening. Yeah, I have as high conviction, right? When we talk through and simple what we just talked about, you can't raise taxes.
No, you can't raise rates. If you cut spending, you're going to drive the dollar up and that's going to trigger that same dynamic. You can't cut spending. The only way out is to drive growth. The only way to drive a growth is to weaken the dollar. So I have as high a conviction as probably as I've had in my career of anything.
that the dollar is going to be the release valve in 2025, that if we're sitting here in December 2025, the dollar will be lower than where it trades today, one, you know, whatever, 106, almost 107. It's, you know, not necessarily a lot lower, but I think it goes, you know, 95 to 100, something like that. I have as high conviction than anything I've had in a long, long time. Matt, for the next three to four months, I have no conviction in how this will go.
Because a, we're between administrations. B, you've got very powerful personalities and almost like in Elon and Vivek pushing these cuts. You've got talk of tariffs. You've got geopolitics.
And the zeitgeist among sort of the financial sort of traditional financial minds is that we can just cut. And like, that's 100% wrong. Like they will blow up the system full stop if they anything that strengthens the dollar. Yeah. And so that's why I say no conviction on the next three to four months.
There's a lot of very powerful people that are seeing hell bent on doing things that will strengthen the dollar first. And if that's the case, things will blow up. And at that point, I agree 100% with you that that isn't going to be allowed to happen for more than a cup of coffee. And so for me, practically speaking, I've been thinking about it as
Almost a turbocharged version of even the markets of 2020 possibly right which is, you know, if you remember markets peak like last week of December or last week of January, excuse me, in January 2020, if I remember, and sort of bled through 20th February as covid fears picked up and then just fell out of bed sort of late February, first half of March.
And then like third week of March, Fed comes in like, hey, 600 billion a week. Let's go. And like it was off to the races. And the point being is basically if you were running a portfolio of any real size, you could be right from January through mid March, or you could have been right for the rest of the year. But it was almost impossible to have completely restructured your portfolio from the end of January through third week of March to get ready for the COVID crash. And then
anywhere near the bottom to completely restructure that portfolio to then benefit from 600 billion a week in QE. You were either right before and wrong after or you were wrong before and right after. And I think this would be even more compressed for the exactly the reason you said, which is anything that causes stocks to hit an air pocket is a direct indictment of Trump policies. Full stop. He owns it now.
And so I don't think it's gonna be allowed to last for very long. So to me, that speaks to that. Oh, they can't fall. Of course they can fall and they will fall very fast, very sharply, if they do anything to weaken the dog tariffs, geopolitics with sash. You mean if they allow the dollar to bid, not do the dollar rises any more basically from here. I mean, look, we're at 106, 107 last three, four weeks. We've had two punk 20 year auctions, a punk 30 year auction.
And the 10 years already are four four one and act on Spry, right? Four point four one percent active spry. So the long end of the bond market is acting the way it has when the dollar is too strong. The options are kind of and and so here we are. So if they do anything, Elon Vivek.
I want to pull something up because everything you're saying reminded me of this tweet that you recently had where you responded to Elon, I'm going to pull this up for folks. So Elon says, yes, if actions not taken the curb deficit, America's in deep trouble, no different than a person who gets into too much debt. You reply with.
All we need to do is drop the deficit by more than a trillion next year as the cut rates back to 0%, and issue 100% of the debt in three-month T-bills bought by the Fed if needed. Yes, inflation and assets will surge, but so will receipts. US deficit will be close to the surplus by this time in 2026. Explain what you're really getting at with this, Luke.
Yeah, when you have a fiscal position of ours, deficit, where they are, you don't get to act in increments. Small increments, it's leverage. Leverage cuts both ways. So what I was saying is we just ran through exactly why it is a mathematical certainty that if anything strengthens a dollar, they will trigger the worst financial crime. I mean, yeah, if 3Q23, 2022, dollar up everything else down until either, you know, we have a failed treasury auction or the
Someone injects dollar liquidity. Okay. So must give the mean time is talking about exactly this. Hey, let's do something to strengthen the dollar to cut down. Right. And that was where you and this is where people who don't know you don't realize that it's a little tongue in cheek in your reply of like, hey, great idea. Like, I think everybody wants the government to get more responsible and just not be blowing money. But if you start doing this,
You're going to make the dollar rip, which is going to cause all these other implications and melt down because we're dealing with a fractional reserve banking system that is dependent on the expansion of the units, right? To just print more units. Is that the capture that correctly? I mean, the part line is we know empirically that if they do this a year from now, if they do it by trying to cut anything except interest, the deficit as a percent of GDP will be higher. Yes.
because we'll be pushing the recession by virtually dollar mechanics. We know this because Obamacare did it. In 2014, Obamacare, Wall Street Journal said it's going to reduce the deficit by more efficiently allocating government because health care because the top line goes away because the top line push. Yeah. Yeah. The top. So what you do, like, so this was Doge 1.0. We're going to push health care onto the people.
Great, that sounds makes perfect logical sense. In the real world, what happened was, is my premiums, and lots of other small business premiums went up 20, 30, 40%. And we said, oh, now I have to pay for my own health care more. We're not going to go out to eat as much. We're not going to buy a new car. We're not going to go on a vacation. Consumer spending in 2015 dropped. GDP, the revenues, like you just said, slowed massively. And 12 to 14 months later, the US deficit as a percent of GDP was
higher than the deficit to GDP when they passed Obamacare. And this was like a small cut, not a big cut like Elon's talking about, with lower debt to GDP than we have now. So it is a mathematical certainty that if they cut anything other than interest, they will have a higher deficit to GDP in under 12 months and Trump will be discredited for the next four years and Elon's political, whatever this is, will be, it's not a game he wants to play. Now,
That brings me to the tweet, which is sort of the special case asterisk to this, which I always like to extremes inform the means, right? So let's take it to the far end, because we can learn something from the, you know, let's go have a bollock with it. And that's kind of the point of that tweet, but it's like it's only partially tongue in cheek.
Second biggest line item after entitlements is interest. Yeah, wow. And right now we're on pace next year, only a seven trillion dollar bolus of debt is going to be refinance next year at a higher rate, quite a bit higher rate in some cases. So let's just use 4% average interest rate on 36 trillion in debt to make the illustration, which is very kind, which is very kind.
It's kind. It's kind. That assumes no more debt. We're not going to grow debt next year. When reality, we're going to grow up like 8% Kager as we have every year since 2018 or 2008. Excuse me. So let's just keep it flat at 36 trillion, 4%. That's a trillion two. That's a trillion four five. Let's just round it up to a trillion five for easy math. So we're going to have a trillion five interest expense next year at 4%. That's insane.
This is insane because this is like double the budget of DoD or close to like maybe 1.5. It's 160% of DoD. It's 50% of all in entitlements. Yeah. OK, how can we get rid of this? Let's cut the rate to zero and finance it all in the bill markets, which is Heather's buying. We'll get into that. We'll get into that in a second. Yeah, let's not jump ahead. But.
Okay, that's going to take a trillion-five wine item out of the budget. Financing in bills versus at further out in durations is secularly inflationary because it's much closer to essentially money printing. The issuing in bills at zero is very close to money printing versus issuing in longer durations at some sort of yield. The longer durations sterilizes at inflation. But you get the point. We get our deficit down.
percentage wise. Yeah. As a percentage of the game. Yeah. Like, and receipts are going to explode. Receipts are going to explode because the stock market is going to explode. And growth is going to explode. And inflation is going to explode. Luke, I don't mean to interrupt you, but what the person who's listening to this is thinking, I would imagine is, but yeah, so does the price for the stake that I'm already paying 50 or $60 for, like that's going to explode. And is that correct?
Yeah, and these are things we should have thought about and maybe been a little more aggressive as citizens of this country when our government did the galactically stupid things it did with borrowed money over the last 30 years. People say, well, it's going to make state more expensive.
Steak's already more expensive. It hasn't been marked to market yet because again, your choice isn't. I want a $60 steak or I want an $80 steak. That's not the choice. The choice is I want a $60 steak or I want a $30 steak except unemployment is at 30% plus and a great depression.
And i don't eat anything but dog food cuz i'm out of a job those are your choices because of the debt level that we have when your company and you spend eight trillion dollars on a investment that yields zero actually yields net losses basically imagine being a business and you said i'm gonna make a giant acquisition. I'm gonna spend eight trillion dollars on the acquisition.
And not only is the acquisition not a creative to your earnings and not only do you have to wipe that value completely off it basically you buy a fraudulent business that's worth zero with the eight trillion dollar so you have to write that down to zero but the fraudulent business you took legal control of has an asbestos liability.
That goes on for three hundred fifty billion dollars a year growing eight percent perpetuity. What is the value of that of your corporation answers your zero you're going bankrupt you've got to write it all up and start over now. Why do i bring up that example united states government borrowed eight.
trillion dollars to go to the Middle East. What did we do? We took Afghanistan from the Taliban, and then 20 years later gave it back to the Taliban. That's less than zero. We security rocks oil for China, who's now the biggest oil producer in Iraq. Okay, zero.
And for the benefit of spending a trillion rv a budget veterans affairs budget is now three hundred fifty billion dollars a year which is bigger than the entire federal deficit. When we began spending a trillion on these two zero corporate acquisitions and so when you look at it that way. That's why i say like the choice isn't all i want a sixty dollar state or thirty dollar statement.
You can have an $80 stake and we write off the $8 trillion loss plus the $350 billion of asbestos liabilities that go on in perpetuity. And if you have a job, if you have a job or, you know, 20, 30% of people don't have a job. And by the way, that will bring stake down for to 30 bucks for like six months, maybe 12 months, because the reality is when 20, 30% of people don't have a job, they don't pay their house. They don't pay their, their mortgage, their car loans or student loans or credit cards.
And so bank start to default again. And so now we go right back to 2008, we go right back to 2020, we go right back to 2023. Is the Fed going to stand aside and let the banking system fail? Are they going to let it fail? And then no, compensate depositors over 250,000.
Because if they don't do over two hundred fifty thousand corporations will be an appointment with sixty percent and like forget it's over. So you know they're going to do that and so you're going to get your choices and thirty dollar state or eighty dollar state from sixty dollar state today. Your choices eighty dollar state and we start growing and it allows us to inflate away and write off the terrible corporate acquisition we made we just wasted a trillion dollars on or we go to thirty the thirty dollar state for like six months.
And then we go right back to $100 stake because guess what? The Fed's going to turn around and bail out those banks from that 20% unemployment. We know it. It has to happen. So like there are people that understand this. Yeah. In Washington at the highest level. What I have no conviction in is whether said people have the political juice to talk sense or to overwhelm Elon.
He's a force of nature. He hasn't his head that this is a good idea. There's an order of operations that must be respected. Will it be respected? I have no idea. However, I'm very high conviction that his boss, Mr. Trump, will not allow stock markets to do what they mathematically certainly do if Elon gets his way in terms of cutting first before devaluing the dollar. So hopefully that helps people understand. Yes, it was tongue in cheek in terms of cutting rates, but like
You have to devalue the dollar first before you cut. If you do it in the other direction, you'll kill your political credibility, and then you'll devalue the dollar via bailing out the banks. And everyone in my grandma will just go, they're the same friggin thing. Banks first, and the next guy we get we vote for will be even less pleasant to have this country.
Yeah, a lot going on there. And for the record, when I said $60 stakes, I'm talking about a pack of four at Costco in their large just for the record. Now, if you're listening to this in the future, and let's say it's 2028, which a lot of our listeners are from the future, and then I'm talking about one state. Awesome.
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All right. Back to the show. All right. There was another interesting thing in your report that I want to talk about because I wasn't really fully wrapping my head around this. You're talking about this three card Monty with the Bank of England and how they're doing like this mild version of yield curve control. Walk us through this. Help us understand this from like a big picture. And in this part of the report, you said, you think this is bullish for Bitcoin. So I want to hear what you've got on this one.
Yeah, there was a bloomer article reporting on what the Bank of England, one of the governors, I think said last week or two weeks ago that basically we are setting up this facility yet again, yet again. And this facility will allow what will preserve the functioning of the guilt market in times of stress. And anybody can tap it banks, pensions, hedge funds, anybody. And we're not going to tell anybody who taps it so that if anybody needs it, they'll can just tap it.
So you're, you're effectively, you're getting the merging of the Bank of England and the Fed, right? Like that's, that's all this is, is it's emerging if they can enter into a swap line anytime they want and you don't have to talk about who it is. I mean, it's basically just the merging of two central banks, right? Functionally, yes, not really indistinguishable from that, right? I highlighted, look, the 10 year guilt and the 10 year treasury have been tied into hip for the last three to four years. Yep.
The biggest marginal buyer of US treasuries, individual buyer of treasuries from a foreign standpoint this year by far has been the United Kingdom, UK. They only own 8 billion less in treasuries as a nation than China does. Now the difference
is china runs a three hundred billion dollar surplus against the u.s and the u.k. is a twin deficit nation right so that tells us the u.k.'s treasury buying has nothing to do with trade it's all financial buyers.
So, if the UK is by far the biggest marginal buyer of treasuries, and we know it's a twin deficit nation, so we know it's all financial buyers, and the Bank of England just came out and said, well, the big marginal financial buyers of debt in our country can tap this credit line anytime things get crazy to buy gilts.
Yeah, it's de facto yield curve control light for the UK and for the US, particularly if you grab a US swap line in there with the Bank of England, a Fed swap line. So, you know, for me, it's one of these things where, you know, some people will get all, you know, enraged or shocked by this trade the markets we have. Now, we won't. We knew this is going to happen. This is the only way out. They're very creative about it. I must give them credit, right? You've got to do like this three card monty of like buying find the ace.
But there it is, and ultimately what that tells me is as an investor away from day to day and trading in monthly is the United States and the United Kingdom will not allow 10-year treasury yields and 10-year yield yields to be priced by the market beyond a certain point.
That liquidity will come in. And that's very, very powerful knowledge. It tells me, great, like Bitcoin can move up and down and give you volatile. There's going to be liquidity provided to keep those bond markets functioning. And there's nothing more bullish for Bitcoin than that.
I mean, at the end of the day, Bitcoin is just this relief out for all of this printing that has to happen. If we're just going to simplify this for the listener, we're talking about a lot of kind of fancy economic terminology, which I'm sure if people aren't intimately familiar with markets, I can be maybe frustrating to hear the depth of the conversation and not fully understand like the context or the so what to some of this. But Luke, it seems that you agree, like all of these things are just more monetary units that are going to be clacked on keys that are going to be created.
And the relief valve is Bitcoin, it appears. I mean, some of the comments from Putin himself, from you name it world leaders, we've had, you know, we didn't even talk about the Bitcoin treasury that the US is potentially going to do with an executive order on the very first day of Trump taking office on the 20th of January, which I've heard is a million Bitcoin that the US is going to try to acquire.
And then I'm also hearing that other nation states are going to co-announce their strategic reserve and that some of them are already building their strategic reserve in the Middle East. So like all of these announcements, we're seeing states. I saw Ohio is trying to do their own Bitcoin strategic reserve for the state. There's some other states that are working some of these things.
This is the relief valve. It appears for all of this crazy activity and global coordination between central bankers that just flood the system with more fiat units to paper over all these really bad policy decisions, fiscal policy decisions through all the years. Is that properly summarized? If we were going to just kind of wrap all this into like a midpoint for the listener as to like, what does this all mean? What does it all mean?
No, I think it is fair. Ultimately, when you make bad investment decisions, whether you are a person, a company, a state or a sovereign, you either take the loss or you inflate it away. And we just described when I laid out the $8 trillion going to zero with a $350 billion a year, asbestos liability going forward and perpetuity growing 10%.
There's no chance they're gonna cut off the okay there's no chance they're gonna write that debt down because that is the collateral packing the banking system and all these other as a mark they have to inflate it and so if the real value has been impaired the only thing to do is increase the nominal value is to inflate and so yeah absolutely i mean to me it's.
You know, that's been one of the big powerful things about Bitcoin is really, you know, it was very skeptical where initially and what turned me, you know, years ago was ultimately, I gave the conclusion was that its structure meant it was the smoke detector that could be turned off. You know, gold has long been a smoke detector and it's been manipulated for that exact reason via any number of ways. And, you know, maybe that's changing certainly a binary global system starts allowing gold to move more freely.
But not like Bitcoin, as you can see. Up and down, right? I mean, that volatility is not a bug. It's a feature of what's happening in the underlying. I mean, I've highlighted this chart multiple times on X that, look, you want to see a really volatile chart? Call it the month-to-month volatility of gold and buy more German Reichstmarks.
It makes the volatility of Bitcoin look like a frigging three-month tebow from the early 19 from the early 1920s is what Luke is. Early 1920s, right? Yeah. That's a currency. That's in having a problem. You know, look at a hyperinflating currency today in terms of dollars. It looks like a Bitcoin chart. I mean, the only way to look at it is in log skin. You are. The only way to look at it is in log terms that really kind of wrapped your head around it. Yeah. Yeah.
Hey, talk to us about tariffs. So Trump has come out with some really kind of bold statements. And it seems to be one of his, you know, I guess when he was calling Justin Trudeau, the governor of Canada, some of the stuff that's happening, man, this is crazy.
was calling him the governor of Canada. He's throwing around all this tariff talk. You want to play hardball? Well, we can play hardball. This is how we're going to do it. What are the implications of this Luke? So people hear this. They don't know if it's good, if it's bad. What's the knock on effect if he would go into this and step into it pretty heavily?
I think there's an immediate tactical knock on effects mechanically we can describe and i think there's a structural impact that is important highlight so let's start with the tactical i think it's relatively well understood that okay it's gonna drive dollar up right it's gonna probably be slightly inflationary here.
which we have already thoroughly discussed at the start of the show. If you're wanting what that means, it means that you're not exactly right, right? Like dollar up is going to touch off the US and global debt, death spiral. That will work. Doesn't mean they won't try, but we kind of we so, you know, dollar up, bad economic outcomes that way, bad market outcomes that way, and probably slightly inflationary here, deflationary for China in particular. Okay, that's a tactical.
The structural, I don't think, has got nearly as much airtime because it's second derivative and because it's not immediate. And so those things don't get much airtime in our media. And that is that the structure of the US dollars reserve status since 1971 requires low tariffs and free capital flows.
And when Trump said that, oh, that 100% tariff if people try to move away from the dollar, like that to me was like a splinter my brain because my 100% tariff they move away from the dollar, like 100% tariff ends the dollar system as it's been structured. Like that is, you know, a 50% tariff.
and the dollar system as it's been structured because that that's basically capital controls capital flow. The way that system works, we send our factories and jobs to China and out. They make the stuff. They send us the stuff. We send the dollars. They send the dollars back into our markets. Washington and Wall Street get rich. The rest of the country gets poorer on a real basis. China gets rich on a real basis, starts buying our companies back and telling our corporations what to do and buying our politicians like that.
What the last 25 years have essentially been being somewhat flip, but not that flip. So when you have a guy come in and say, I'm going to put 100% tariffs are trying to try to move away from the dollar. Okay. Well, then that breaks that hole like that. That is the dollar system. Those flows I just described you and this completely stops those. So what are the implications of that? What does that mean breaks the dollar system changes the dollar system?
Well, we kind of have an idea because we got a dry run with Russia in 2022, right? We're going to sanction Russian effects reserves. The robo will be rubber. Well, everyone looked at it and said, holy cat, and they sold treasuries and they bought gold at the central bank level at the fastest pace. They bought a central bank's about a thousand tons of gold a year.
Since we sanctioned Russian FX reserves, Treasury holdings are roughly flat. They fell for a while, they've come back a bit with the dollars after the dollar got fell from 3Q22 to 114 to 107 today. Treasury holdings have bounced back somewhat from a foreign perspective, foreign official perspective.
But that gives us an idea. If we put 100% tariffs on people, like the first derivative thinking is they go, China's just going to starve. No, they're not. No, they're not. They're going to go around. They're going to sign different individual deals and different, you know, they're going to net settled in gold at a different gold oil ratio than London. They're going to drain London at gold. There's going to be massive impact. I'm not saying China will get hurt.
But this view of like all we need to do to chip over china and their banking system is put these tears on this stupid it's like it's so unipolar stupid thinking. It's big ego thinking it's people here thinking all we're the best where the greatest and we can do anything we want to be it's just so idiotic it's so out of reality. Completely completely so it would be very disruptive but I think there is like I said there these tactical impacts we know there's this structural dynamic that is.
Huge, I mean, huge in terms of not just how it completely breaks the flows that define the structure of the post-71 dollar system, right? Well, we're met settling in financial assets, right? Bonds and stocks, that is broken. And so there's going to be something else that starts to be settled in. We're basing 100% tariffs as take your capital elsewhere. Go do something else with it. They're going to move to a neutral reserve asset because we know China's got a closed capital account.
I'm not going to let you buy Chinese government bonds of sell this crap. They're certainly not going to let you buy Chinese industry. It's going to be gold or increasingly in the last, it's been fascinating to me to watch post our conversation in July and Nashville that's really accelerated. It increasingly looks like Bitcoin is sort of like.
the, at least A, if not the neutral reserve asset choice of the West. Like a tweet, retweeted it on Friday or Saturday. Like, Bessent is meeting with Loomis. Like, that's fascinating to me. That's absolutely fascinating to me. And she's saying, like, we're talking about a Bitcoin reserve. Like, I would not have bet that that tweet would have taken place even a week before. So things seem to be moving really fast to your point about Russian language media came out this week or two weeks ago, excuse me, stay Duma, introduce a Bitcoin reserve.
All in Russia, you gotta, you know, I didn't see it anywhere on Bloomberg. I didn't see anywhere on Reuters. I didn't see anywhere on CNBC. I had to translate the friggin article from Russian and Google translate, but there it is. And so, like, think about the implications of the world's biggest commodity producer bidding for Bitcoin. Are you kidding me? Are you kidding me? The implications.
Insane that it's not even covered. Not even covered. And that's why I say that the big structural impact ultimately is, oh, you tactically inflation, dollar disruption, whatever. Okay. Interesting. But to me, that's not the real, that's the warm up. Like to me, the main event is 100% terrorist to force people from stop, you know, exiting the dollar system will instantaneously drive, nearly instantaneously drive
The ending of the post seventy one dollar system because the world is not going to sit in. Oh, we're going to starve because of these tears. No, they're going to be Russia. I see you're selling in Bitcoin. Great or gold. Whatever they got to do, they're going to move to gold Bitcoin. Some mixed way shape or form.
And the reality is, is like, gold and Bitcoin are priced in the correct zip code. Yeah. If this is even directionally accurate, yeah, Bitcoin need at least one, a different digit in front of it, at least. And gold probably needs one too. But.
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All right, back to the show. Let's look at this tweet you had. This one here is miraculous to me. Forbes, BlackRock recommends Bitcoin for your 6040 portfolio. And then I'll let you talk your test here. This was so funny, the reply that you had. This is massive, right? Because I mean, for the listener that doesn't understand in the financial world how BlackRock is perceived from a, you know,
You go to your ordinary every day, not analyst, but professional investment advisor. How does that person look at a recommendation from BlackRock as to portfolio construction and their recommendations, Luke? And then talk through your, uh, your retweet and your comment that you had on this.
It's like the Pope, if you're a Roman Catholic, you know, it's like, you know, so much of Wall Street, sort of traditional Wall Street is around managing career risk. And it's not polite to say, but it's true. I was at a, I gave a speech year or so ago, and I was told, look, Luke, everything you lay out makes perfect sense. And, you know, my conclusion was basically, you know, about a year ago, buy gold, sell treasures, buy Bitcoin, sell treasures. And it worked out pretty well. But again,
12, 14 months ago, I was told, look, if I buy gold and it goes down 30%, I lose my job. If I buy treasuries and they go down 30%, I keep my job. And so like a key when I say it's like the pope for a Roman Catholic is like, when Blackrock tells you to do something, there is an army of financial advisors, et cetera, RIA's out there that go, okay, this is now, we've been greenlighted.
I can point, well, BlackRock's advising it, so now it's safe. So I thought that was really big from that point. The lesser understood part of that is, remember, in Jim Rickard's book, Road to Ruin, 2014, he details a meeting in which he is sitting in, in which Larry Fink at BlackRock, the CEO of BlackRock's, Rickard doesn't name this woman, but says he's basically, she's basically Fink's conciliar.
And that this woman's job is the interaction between the US government and BlackRock. And that she tells records that, oh, yeah, like in a moment's notice, the US government could tell BlackRock, stop selling. Yeah. And it was the ice nine was this, I think there's a book where a record's coined the term, you know, use the, I think it's Fahrenheit 454. Anyway, the ice nine term like freeze the markets, like just like stop.
And so that, like, I think the whole Black Rock as, you know, poked to the Catholics for sort of the managing of career risk for an army of RIA and investment advisors is somewhat well understood. I'm not sure it's as well understood that like, Black Rock wouldn't do that probably unless parts of the US government at least were like, at the very least benign neglect, right? At the very least, I'll give you another example on that. And what I mean by benign neglect.
It was post 2014. It was probably 15 or 16. I was told there was an investment fund that had done all the analysis on Russian bonds. And objectively, from a fiduciary responsibility, they were superior to some dollar bond.
And so they were a big enough investment fund. Obviously, we were tensions with Russia were already high by 15 or 2015 or 2016. The fund went to their compliance department internal, which all funds, all big funds have internal compliance departments and said,
This we are thinking of buying Russian bonds. We are aware of no sanctions by the US on these Russian bonds. Will you call your contact at Treasury and make sure that we're in the clear? This is what compliance does at these high levels, why it's called Treasury.
Treasurer says, correct, there are no sanctions that would prohibit you from buying these bonds, but we highly recommend you don't. And that was the end of it. The fund did not buy the bonds, even though there were no specific sanctions and even though they were superior and beneficial to their clients.
Carry that back to the BlackRock, Rickards, 2% of Bitcoin allocation. My read on that away from the career risk management, which I think people well understood for me was an even bigger deal because I look at this and go, if the US government did not want that to happen, that would not have happened. Full stop. Full stop. I'm not saying all of the US government does. I think it continues. I think there are multiple parties of sort of, you know, the Ruben, Summers, Walsh, you know, what's good for Goldman is good for America crowd.
And i think there's a growing what's good for america is good for america crowd what's good for do d is good for america crowd and i think the what's good for america do d crowd has increasing sway and i think the fact that black rick is talking about two percent bitcoin allocation is evidence of that and so i thought it was a much bigger deal maybe than generally people sort of took it as which is hey you know like like the pope the roman catholics.
Which is valid in its own right i'm not saying i'm not downplaying that but i think there's an even bigger you know what you sort of get the inside baseball of you know what records talked about with black rock and what you my own personal experience you know being in this business for thirty years i was a bigger deal than that.
So here's for people that are just listening to the show, this tweet that talks about the BlackRock recommending the 2%. Luke had a reply said, okay, so is this a late stage bubble signpost? That's the first one. Is this a systemically important institution is advocating undermining the dollar? Is it that? Is this it's not undermining the USD, it's supporting the USD, or they're trying to shift retail away from gold?
Which one of these is it, Luke, in your opinion, that's the real question. Which one of those is it? Thank you. You think it's the first one, I think. Well, I think there's elements of all of it, right? So there are elements of all of it. Right. Right. One of the benefits of having as many followers on Twitter is there's a two-way flow of information, right? Like, you know, I can learn by what I read and I can learn by what I don't read and I do a lot.
Okay, late stage bubble. In what? In Bitcoin or in Treasuries? Yeah, in Treasuries, yeah. I think it's in Treasuries with the fiat system. Bubble on a nominal basis or bubble on a real basis. I think in a real basis, I think Treasuries will be fine. You might actually make money. If the dollar goes down next year, you're going to make money in long-term Treasuries. In dollar terms, in Bitcoin and gold and stock terms, you're going to get killed, right? In Bitcoin terms, you're going to get killed in anything other than owning Bitcoin.
it's so the second one was late stage bubble second or first was late stage bubble was the second one while undermining us. Yeah, it's undermining the USD or it's not undermining the USD it's supporting the USD which would be your tether discussion right.
is one of my favorite. I know a lot of people ask me like, why aren't you worried that it was a creation of the CIA, right? And like they always, have I ever thought about it? Absolutely. I've thought about it. Yeah. Is it possible? Sure. I don't know. Yeah. But what I find fascinating again is no one ever pulls that thread. Like I say,
Pull that threat let's pull that threat let's pretend we know for fact it's a creation of the cia okay i don't know explain to me like i'm a two-year-old why the cia would create something that according to many economists under mines u.s dollar why would they do that.
It's a fascinating question because it completely. I mean, if you knew the dollar was going to die one way or the other, then you have to replace it. So maybe that would be the argument, right? That would be the argument. You can make the argument that what started as a small group is now a sizable group of professionals in the DOD and intelligence world.
that understand that this dollar system is actually crushing. It is a significant threat to U.S. national security. It has crushed the U.S. defense industrial base that has been proven empirically by what happened in Ukraine, where we got out produced in key military technologies by a country with one tenth, our GDP in Russia.
So yeah, and what's the fix to that? The fix to the dollar system and ending the trifons dilemma is what you and I have talked about ad nauseam. You have to have a neutral reserve asset that floats in all currencies. Yeah. And arguably, if you're the CIA, using gold advantages, the Russians and the Chinese more or, you know, it's some gold people say, look, the American gold's gone. Well, look, if the American gold's gone, you freaking better create something new.
So there's a lot of ways you can take it, none of which, you know, I don't know which one's right, but I know that all of them completely and directly contradict the sort of mainstream economist view of Bitcoin, which is interesting to me, right? The third one was, uh, what, uh, getting people off of, I think there's an element where they are getting off a goal, you know, it does redirect some flows away from gold. Sure. I mean, I think that's empirically, you can see that, right? That's a fact.
To what end? Who knows? Is it because we want to use Bitcoin and we don't have any gold left? Or is it because it empowers China and Russia more than us? Or is it so that the US government can wave it in and or it can flow where it needs to go and then they're going to re-value it later? I don't know. I can make a credible case all three. I don't know. And then I guess was there one other one? No, you got them all. Yeah, you got them all.
Here's my final question for you, and it's super speculative, and I want you to give me a binary answer. You don't have to, but I want you to. Is the first day when Trump takes office on the 20th of January, is he going to use an executive order to establish a Bitcoin reserve?
If I was in my win actually really, yeah, I wouldn't actually talk us through this. Well, I would you say that only because and you I mean full disclosure, you're a Bitcoin or you have Bitcoin, right? Yeah, like full disclosure, Bitcoin is my biggest position. I love Bitcoin. I think it's all right. Okay. And I also fold this book. I know all the Bitcoin. You're going to afraid hate me for saying that.
No, I love that you have a, you know, a contra take. Let's hear it. For me, if I'm him, I want to leave my flexibility open. If I do it day one. So what you're really saying is you want to basically do the reserve without announcing to the world that you're doing the reserve in the background and then announce it after you've acquired a real position size.
I would do it that way. It's hard to imagine a way where he could get more favorable to Bitcoin without taking that final step of actually out there buying Bitcoin. The other thing, again, I think moving to a gold or Bitcoin neutral reserve asset, like I said, this administration very much seems to be shifting toward Bitcoin objectively.
which I think makes a lot of sense. As I've long said, Bitcoin does a lot of things and gold does better than gold. It's an energy link, neutral reserve asset. That's what we need to sort of have this global economic renaissance. So, like, however it happens, I'm not religious or dogmatic about whether it's gold or Bitcoin. Like, I just want what's best for my kids, for our country, for my compatriots, which is a neutral energy link to reserve asset. Okay.
If I'm him, I can do it quietly, but I think I just keep making positive noise about it. I mean, he's got a crypto czar. Aren't you allowing everybody to front-run you if that's the approach? I'm hearing rumors that there are countries already front-running us. I hear the same rumors. I hear the same rumors. Yes. You are going to take heat for this online.
I think ultimately, the reason I say I don't think he's doing it right is that I don't have confidence that's sort of the traditional economic advisors. I mean, get on Twitter and look at sort of every traditional economic person and what they're saying about whether strategic Bitcoin reserve is a good idea or not.
I'm not saying he won't ever do it day one. I just don't think he'll do it day one. But again, I would be happy to be 100. I don't have great connections on that. I suspect he's going to sign some type of executive order to establish it. But as far as like the teeth on the execution of it, that's what I don't know. You know, I'd have to go do a lot more research as to like, he can go out there, sign an executive order to basically encourage Congress to push something through. But I think Congress is the ultimate authority to get something like that established. Is that?
So two things and this is kind of ties into why I think maybe one is number one, like he is a businessman, right? So he can just want to waste. He can announce it day one and the market's going to run away from it. Right? So how is that in American interest? Right? Oh, hey, I'm going to do it day one and now the market's going to run away from me and enrich my training partner versus
I have told Pew that we're moving in this direction and then you can get more, you can wave more in in a way that paints a picture for people. If he comes out and says, you know, I'm favorable Bitcoin, Bitcoin's good, all the things he's talked about in the last six months.
And Bitcoin goes from 100 to 30. He looks like a freaking idiot. The market's saying you're an idiot. In the meantime, if he talks more and more favorably about it, and Bitcoin just goes up and up and up and up and up, he looks smart. It's like me saying, the sun's about to rise at 6 a.m. and pointing my hand. And I'm going to make the sunrise, right?
But I think from a optics and narrative perspective, it makes more sense to not answer day one, continue to talk positively about it, buy it in the background and manage the chart as you talk positively about it. And then after the fact, say, hey, by the way, I have established the Bitcoin Reserve, because then the market's going to run away from you.
Versus doing a day one where the market and there's some experience in this and this also kind of inform my thought process is. Let me help you out for the people online. Let me help you out for the people online. You're basically saying talk is cheap, show the proof of work and action first and then talk about what you did is what you're really saying. I'm saying that we saw it in the 70s with the Saudis when the Saudis are like we're going to start buying gold. Yeah. And they announced that they're going to start buying gold. Guess what the price of gold? Yeah. Yeah. They never get to buy any. It ran away from them.
Yeah. And so you're better off managing that process. It's a political process. It's, you know, you can't just run it for the mean, so to speak, right? Like you actually got to do something. And so now I don't think they're going to beat you up as much, Luke. I think that that's clear. Yeah. So, yeah, no, that's kind of the way I flush it out. And does he need Congress? I'm not as well versed on that, what I am. What I can't say is he can do whatever he wants with the exchange stabilization fund.
And the exchange stabilization fund releases a balance sheet once a year. And so anybody curious, like number one, ESF can do whatever they want in support of the dollar subject to only the approval of the present and the secretary of the treasury. Okay, we know Besant seems to be at least talking about Bitcoin because he just got, he was just shown meeting with Loomis last week. Okay.
If you can go back and look at the balance sheet of the ESF annually going back years, what they'll find is I'm going from memory here, but I'm pretty sure that during the COVID crisis, the balance sheet of the ESF lacks up from $90 billion to like $600 billion in assets in a year. No approval. No nothing. Do it.
Subject only the approval of the president and the secretary of the treasury. So I think you could do it with ESF and then, you know, like, look, everybody loves tagging along on a winner, right? Like if I'm the president and I think Congress may or may not approve it, like, you know, Senator Warren will hold it up blah, blah, blah. Great.
You know what i'll do i won't announce it they want i'll buy a bunch and i'll let it run up a bleed out that i'm positive i'll buy it up with the esf and then i'll turn around and announce it it will have risen by that point to some really big number and now if congress says well this is a bad idea.
They're going to look like friggin morons. Why is it a bad idea? It's gone from 100 to, you know, 105 to 200 or 250 or 300 or 500 and the US Reserve exists. It's actually weakening the dollar against the Yuan while strengthening the dollar.
system because it's financing our T build deficits, you know, creating balance sheet capacity of finance deficits. So it's, it's lowering rates, lowering the dollar against the yuan in a way we need to do to be more competitive while also strengthening the dollar system and pulling more global capital into the US. How is this a bad deal? Senator Warren, why is this bad? How's this hurt the United States? And she's gonna go, uh, uh, yeah, she's not gonna answer.
Hey, so I did a little bit of AI on this particular topic, so people have a little bit of understanding of it. It says to stand up a Bitcoin strategic reserve akin to a gold reserve. The president would need more than an executive order. It would almost certainly require new legislation passed by Congress, providing both the legal framework and the necessary funding authorization.
without Congress buy in such a strategic reserve would not be legally or fiscally feasible. I said, how about, you know, what if it was an emergency declaration? And then the response came back, even if the president were to declare a national emergency or invoke certain emergency powers, the authority to create and fund a substantial Bitcoin strategic reserve would still be heavily constrained. And it goes on and on and gives a bunch of pretty insane that we can.
ask these questions and just get answers popped out like that i have no idea if that answers right i suspect pretty close but for people that are curious this is where the lamas proposal for the bill and it seems like they might be able to get support for this based on you know how many republicans are in the house in the senate.
So yeah, maybe you're right, Luke, maybe this wouldn't be the best thing to come out and sign some executive order because in here, hold on, I was saying that the limited executive discretion while the president can issue executive orders to direct agencies to study cryptocurrencies, develop regulations or coordinate on digital asset policy, such orders cannot legally compel agencies to undertake large purchases of the Bitcoin.
So basically he can charge them to do more studies in this kind of thing through an executive order, but to basically stand up the strategic reserve, you can't do that by executive order. So, yeah, we'll see. I mean, it's like, I have no reason to doubt that that ESF has very wide latitude, like he can buy gold, he can buy, you know, if he can buy gold,
If it's in the interest of the dollar or dollar system, you know, why couldn't buy, you know, maybe it requires some sort of, you know, maybe you could maybe the commodity angle could work. I just don't know what their discretion is as far as like holding commodity does gold, the terminology that you used for them to buy gold is that that would be maybe an angle. So yeah, I mean, yeah, right, because SEC is defined Bitcoin as a commodity, right? So you could in theory, you go to the National Defense Production Act, the Obama side, like that executive order.
That can literally commandeer factories, commodities, your human labor. The National Production Act that Obama signed could literally force you and I into the army. He just has to declare a national emergency. It's incredible. There's some loopholes there I think that could be used. But to me, the overall flow, I think, stands. Yeah.
I asked that, but they can buy gold and it's a commodity. So it could Bitcoin fit into that terminology. And then I got a whole other giant response here. Well, gold is often treated as commodity or monetary reserve asset. By the US government, its status as a strategic reserve asset is grounded in longstanding legal framework and historical president. In other words, the authority to hold gold in reserves comes from laws and policies specifically enabling the US treasury to hold the gold. So it's
It's not buying it, but you know, these are some interesting questions. I think I like your points a whole lot more after kind of seeing what would that even do if he did an executive order? Like what would it even enable? So maybe it isn't the smartest idea. I don't know. Yeah, I mean, I don't think you need to. I think you need to keep talking positively and maybe flexibility. This is going to generate some good conversation. I think if you're in the comments on, you know, after this comes out, we'd love to hear what you guys think.
Luke, always a pleasure, brother. You know, I'm obviously a huge fan of your newsletter. I learned a ton, a ton from this thing. What other things do you want to highlight to the audience? Oh, you know, just if you're interested in learning more about it, just FFTT dash LLC dot com for more information about institutional and mass market, or research products. And as you know, you can find me on X at Luke Groman. All right, we'll have links to all this in the show notes. Luke, thank you so much for making time and coming on the show.
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