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bio fuel with Jacque Fatka from Co bank in Kansas City

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November 17, 2024

TLDR: Discussed biofuels with Jacque Fatka from Co bank at the National Association of Farm Broadcasters in Kansas City, Missouri.

1Ask AI

In the recent episode of our podcast, we had the pleasure of chatting with Jacque Fatka from CoBank during the National Association of Farm Broadcasters conference in Kansas City, Missouri. Our discussion revolved around the future of biofuels, specifically focusing on the imminent changes introduced by the upcoming 45Z models and the broader biofuels landscape. Below, we summarize the core insights and key takeaways from this engaging episode.

Understanding the 45Z Model and Its Implications

Upcoming Changes

  • The 45Z model is set to begin on January 1, and both producers and stakeholders are anxiously anticipating its implications.
  • Uncertainty looms as many expect limited guidance or modifications from the current administration before the transition occurs.

Potential Safe Harbor Guidance

  • Some experts speculate that the government may provide safe harbor guidance, which would offer temporary protections without comprehensive regulations but could allow for retroactive adjustments.
  • Producers face significant challenges in pricing feedstocks due to the unpredictable nature of upcoming tax credits, which could lead to losses of up to 90 cents per gallon if not adequately addressed.

The Biodiesel Sector: Current Challenges

Impact on Producers

  • The biodiesel industry is currently in turmoil, with many producers halting feedstock purchases amid confusion about future pricing and tax credits.
  • Stakeholders stress the importance of clarity to stabilize the market and maintain operational efficacy.

Small Refinery Exemptions

  • An increase in small refinery exemptions could potentially diminish demand, impacting the overall biofuels market. The upcoming administration’s stance on these exemptions is crucial for future growth.

The Role of the Greet Model

What is the Greet Model?

  • The Greet Model is essential for determining the Carbon Intensity (CI) score of biofuels, making it a key factor in the application of the new 45Z program.
  • Farmers are encouraged to adopt climate-smart practices to achieve better CI scores, which directly relate to higher tax credits.

Anticipated Changes

  • The USDA’s involvement in updating the Greet Model is pivotal. There is hope that enhancements will deliver greater credits for practices that reduce emissions effectively.
  • Previous iterations of the model failed to offer sufficient incentives for farmers to change their practices.

U.S. and International Biofuel Dynamics

Insights from USDA Reports

  • Recent USDA reports raised questions about the authenticity of imported used cooking oil from China, with concerns about the commodity being labeled incorrectly as cooking oil instead of heated palm oil.
  • Current imports from China are only at 50% of their potential, indicating opportunities for increased supply, although China is simultaneously developing its own Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) industry.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Growth

  • Currently, sustainable aviation fuel constitutes about 0.17% of global fuel consumption, which reflects a substantial growth opportunity.
  • The European Union is instituting a 2% market mandate for SAF beginning next year, indicating a rising demand and potential market growth in this sector.

Final Thoughts and Outlook

Optimism Amidst Challenges

  • Despite facing uncertainties, there is optimism regarding the future of biofuels, particularly in the SAF sector. Stakeholders believe active market mandates could promote further growth.
  • Immediate opportunities for expansion in the biofuels sector may be limited, but focused efforts can yield advancements in efficiency and cost reductions, enhancing the value chain for rural communities.

Key Takeaways

  • The upcoming 45Z models bring both promise and uncertainty to the biofuels sector.
  • Clarity around tax credits and regulations is urgent for biodiesel producers.
  • The Greet Model updates require careful implementation to ensure farmers are adequately incentivized.
  • Global dynamics, particularly in SAF, present considerable growth avenues for biofuels.

In conclusion, the conversation with Jacque Fatka shed light on the intricate and evolving world of biofuels, emphasizing the need for regulatory clarity and adaptation to foster growth in this critical sector.

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