American Ag Today- 11/7/24

and welcome into a brand new episode of American ag today produced by the American ag radio network. I'm your host Jesse Allen. Thanks for joining us here today. Well, we have the results of the 2024 elections and President Donald Trump returning to the White House. He will be the 47th president of the US.

the Republicans on the Senate side taking majority there, still waiting on some of the results in some of the house races and more, but we have certainty on who will be leading our government as we move into 2025 and beyond. Well, of course, we're watching market reaction to the news of the elections. I talked with Arlen Suderman, chief commodities economist at Stone X,

Midday on Wednesday so keep that in perspective this is a little a little under 24 hours old this commentary but we talked about the market reaction and some of the initial volatility in the grains and oil seeds in stock market and on the livestock side as well.

in reaction to the election results let's take a listen to this this was a midday commentary for our market talk program on a wednesday november sixth here is comments with our land suderman from ston x starting with his overall reaction to the election results impacting the markets. Yeah we had significant sell off in the commodities overnight that was the energies in the grain and oil seats.

A couple of factors in that. The number one was the dollar exploding higher on global currency market following Treasury yields higher and based on election response and also the expectation of a Trump tier four with China that would reduce demand for US green and oil seeds.

and also be negative for Chinese economy, which would be negative for crude oil demand as well. Since the US trade deaths have opened up, we've still seen the strong dollar at Fort new four-month highs and Treasury yields trading similarly high. But we have seen the commodity markets moderate, erasing much of the overnight losses. Leading that way in the grain and oil seeds has been the price of soy oil. And this is going to be an interesting thing to watch.

on the expectation in the hope that a Trump administration might come out with more favorable 45Z guidelines that impact the subsidies for the liquid biofuel production.

and might also limit or curtail the massive quantities of used cooking oil coming from China for production of our green diesel fuels here in the United States that are displacing soy oil and canola oil usage. And so we're seeing big strength in canola oil and soy oil prices result. That too is helping to support soybean prices in the recovery there.

I wonder too, obviously, with the sharp moves higher in the Dow, NASDAQ, S&P, gold dropping, you mentioned the dollar exploding higher. Obviously, with the Trump win, it seems to favor this pro-business market environment, and it seems like we're seeing some of that initial reaction here on Wednesday. Very much so. Wall Street is anticipating a deregulatory environment.

with at the very least no tax increases and perhaps extension of the first Trump 1.0 tax cuts that are set to expire at the end of next year if nothing is done as well as possibly additional tax cuts which would be favorable for the business environment. That's giving us a sharply higher stock market with both the Dow Jones and the S&P making new record highs today.

That tends to positively impact consumer sentiment from an historical standpoint, which would be good for demand for commodities as well. Overall, a very upbeat Wall Street providing some positive current for the commodity prices overcoming overnight sell-off by our foreign investors.

And once again, that is comments with Arlen Suderman, chief commodities economist at Stone X. He joined us on our midday commentary on Wednesday, giving his thoughts and reaction to some of the market volatility that we saw post election day 2024.

Well, as we continue to follow the election results, we see that the American Farm Bureau has been gearing up to look past the election this week in hopes it might improve prospects for a new farm bill. American Ag Networks Corinna LaRue has more in this report.

Firm Bureau director of government affairs Joe Gilson says getting the election out of the way could be a plus for AFB's top priority, which is an updated modernized firm bill. Well, I do think it always helps when you can get passed an election for politics to get taken out and a focus can be on policy.

A presidential election year isn't the best time to do a farm bill. That's been the case much of this year as the two parties have retreated to their corners to fight for key farm bill constituencies. Gilson says this election has meant a lot of uncertainty.

what kind of Congress it looks like and who will be in the White House next year. There's a lot of variables and outcomes that we're not sure. Those variables are about to be cleaned up, but crops and livestock don't live by the political clock. And Gilson says the clock that farmers use has run at a time. So we're just going to continue to make the point that farmers have waited two years for a new farm bill. And that hasn't gotten done, regardless of the political outcomes.

outcomes that may still have to be sorted out with a new Congress and new administration in a new year. While the lame duck session of Congress represents one last chance at a farm bill, industry experts say it would require compromise on a number of tricky issues. One report says Senate ad committee chair Debbie Stabenow holds the key to finishing a farm bill this year.

The question is whether she can work out a deal with the other major farm bill players. Some insider say Stabenau would like one last farm bill completion as a legacy item as she isn't running for reelection. An Agweb report from Farm Journal says some longtime Washington contracts give the odds of getting a farm bill done at only 15%. A veteran farm lobbyist says the simple resolution is for Republicans to drop snap cut demands and Democrats to agree to higher reference prices. I'm Corinne LaRue.

And finally, here on today's American Ag today, September exports of US pork and beef for higher year over year, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the US meat export Federation with pork exports well positioned to set annual value and value records in 2024. September pork exports totaling 238,047 metric tons, up 8% from a year ago, while value increased 6% to $685.1 million.

through the first three quarters of the year. Pork exports were 5% above last year's pace at 2.23 million metric tons with value up 7% to 6.36 billion dollars. Meantime, exports of U.S. beef totaling 103,980 metric tons in September up 5% year over year while export value climbed 6% to total 843.8 million dollars.

Also, exports of US lamb reached just 167 metric tons in September, down 32% from a year ago, and the lowest this year, export value was $853,000. That was down 27%. That's going to do it for American Ag today, produced by the American Ag Radio Network. I'm Jesse Allen. Have a great rest of your day.