American Ag Today- 10/18/24

And welcome into a new episode of American Ag today produced by the American Ag Radio Network. I'm your host Jesse Allen. Well, farm bill rumors have surfaced anew as lawmakers look past the upcoming election to a lame duck Congress. Much will depend on the outcome of the election in which parties control the House and Senate. But Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley says rumors about a last minute farm bill have resurfaced.

Some work between the House and Senate agriculture committees that maybe a compromise could be worked out and passed just before we go home at Christmas. But Grassley says those talks are being led by ranking Senate ag Republican John Boseman with an emphasis on getting more farm in the farm bill, which means more support for reference prices, which are too low compared to the inflation we've had an input cost.

But given the months-long partisan stalemate over farm versus nutrition spending and a short lame-duck schedule, Grassley expects another one-year extension of the 2018 Farm Bill. With other things we have to do like the defense bill and all 12 appropriation bills, it just doesn't seem to me that it's going to be time for a farm bill. But another year-long extension has its own drawbacks and not just no updated subsidy floors.

It kind of takes the pressure off of Congress to get something done, but I'm still going to repeat what I said for Chuck Grassley. It's going to be a top priority. We've got to move quickly with the farm bill. So that would be hopefully before the Easter recess.

But this Congress or next, margins will likely still be narrow and Grassley says a new farm bill must be bipartisan to pass. A foreign policy news says that as the fall harvest of record-recorded soybean crops is in full swing, Mississippi River conditions continue to get worse at stalling barges trying to move up and down the channel, especially in the lower Mississippi River.

That means barge drafts and tow sizes have been cut. A draft is the distance between the water line and the deepest points of the boat, which typically is 12 feet at 1500 tons. On the Illinois River, barges are loaded to about a 9 foot draft at 900 tons. Each reduction in the draft means a barges cargo is cut by 200 tons. That'll cost shippers more money as they're paying for the same amount, but shipping less freight than normal.

more barges will be needed to pick up the slack of these costs get passed on typically to the farmers who haul grain to river terminals. So we continue to watch the water level situation on the Mississippi River and see how that impacts things as we move through the final months of 2024 and beyond.

Also here today on the show, more than 24 diplomats from all over the world visited an Indiana farm to learn more about U.S. agriculture. Matthew Whirl, Minister Council for Agriculture at the Australian Embassy was on the trip and talked about the opportunity.

culture is owned and operated by family farms which you know understands the case here in the US so it's always interesting though to get a just a better feel for another country's ag sector and how that compares to some of the issues that are facing Australian farmers which are a lot in common.

He says, there are more in common than differences between US and Australian agriculture, which is why the ag relationship has been good. It's true to say that US and Australia with you farming as a commercial enterprise, very much keen for sustainable productivity growth and the profitability of the sector. So it's a commercial business. And I think, you know, that's something that we have in common, you know, at a national government level, we work really well together because of that in some of the key sort of

Global decision making forums that sort of set the international trade standards that impact on agriculture and we work very closely between the US and Australia. Awesome. May not think of Australia as a top trading partner. World says the partnership is a valued one.

obviously our geographical separation that poses a better challenge but at the same time the US is a major supplier of farming inputs so and also one of the major if not the largest investor in Australian ag land as well so there's quite strong connections commercially there as well as at a government level.

And the Ag Attachays from countries like Hungary, Chile, Canada, and South Korea also attended the event. While there is hope that a new farm bill could be passed during the upcoming lame duck session of Congress, there is concern in farm country that little, if anything will be done during the remaining portion of 2024. Laura Wilder, Executive Director of the Idaho Barley Commission, says the lack of a farm bill means uncertainty and potentially a lack of funding for growers. She says it also hurts the Barley Commission.

Also, there are marketing incentive programs that help us as a commission work on developing export markets and other opportunities that maybe provide more selling opportunities for growers. Now, despite the challenges of low prices, the lack of a farm bill and weather challenges this year, Wilder says Idaho barley growers choose to bounce back.

Farmers are the most resilient people on the planet. They farm because they love the lifestyle and they love growing crops and food to feed the world. And in Barley's case, provide beverages. It's in their DNA and they love what they do and they don't want to stop farming. Once again, Laura Wilder, Executive Director of the Idaho Barley Commission.

Well, a new economic analysis out from the National Corn Growers Association and the American Soybean Association looks at the impacts of a tariff-induced trade war, depending on the outcome of the upcoming election. American Ag Network's Corinne LaRue has more.

A recent economic study highlights the potential fallout from a renewed trade war between the U.S. and China, signaling dire consequences for American farmers and rural communities. The analysis reveals that U.S. tariffs would impose steep costs on domestic producers while providing a competitive edge to ag exporters in Brazil and Argentina.

As tensions between the two nations escalate, the study emphasizes that American soybeans and corn, which are vinyl export commodities, would bear the brunt of retaliatory tariffs. With U.S. farmers already grappling with financial pressures, the imposition of new tariffs could exacerbate their struggles, leading to significant declines in exports and production value.

The study suggests if China reinstates previous tariff levels, U.S. soybean exports could plummet by 51.8 percent, while corn exports may decrease by 84.3 percent. In a more drastic scenario involving a 60 percent retaliatory tariff, U.S. soybean exports to China could decline by over 25 million metric tons and nearly cutting off corn exports.

Meanwhile, Brazil and Argentina stand to gain market share, further entrenching their positions as key competitors in the global agriculture landscape. As policymakers consider their next steps, the findings underscore the urgent need for a balanced approach to trade that protects American farmers while addressing trade imbalances with China.

Now farmers for free trade, the national trade advocacy coalition, including America's largest agate food associations released a reaction to the new analysis. Bob Hemesoth is the board president for farmers for free trade says the analysis shows that American court of serving farmers will be devastated by the reemergence of a trade war. He said in part, quote, the very real possibility that tariffs rise sharply would mean corn exports to China.

dropped by well over 80% in soy exports would drop by half. The analysis also shows that the trade war would reduce U.S. soybean and corn prices, which would harm rural economies across the country." That's going to do it for this episode of American Ag Today, produced by the American Ag Radio Network. Thanks for joining us. I'm Jesse Allen. Have a great rest of your day.