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489- Talking Terumo

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November 26, 2024

TLDR: In this episode, Phil and Danielle analyze Terumo, a medical technology company, using various investment principles to evaluate its fundamentals while discussing the impact of consistent financial data. They also touch on the topic of increased access to investment information.

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In the latest episode of Invested Podcast, titled "489 - Talking Terumo," Phil and Danielle Town delve into the world of value investing with a focused analysis on Terumo, a prominent medical technology company. They discuss key investment principles, the importance of thorough research, and the evolving landscape of accessible financial information. Here’s a breakdown of the key takeaways from the episode.

Importance of Modern Tools in Investing

The podcast emphasizes that modern technology has significantly transformed how investors analyze companies. Increased access to financial data enables investors, both seasoned and novice, to inform their investment decisions:

  • Tools for Analysis: Modern tools allow for real-time data access, making financial analysis quicker and more effective.
  • Informed Decisions: Investors can balance long-term trends with short-term market movements, deepening their understanding of the value of stocks.

Key Concept: The Rule of 72

Phil and Danielle touch upon the Rule of 72, a fascinating mathematical formula that helps investors estimate how long it will take for their investment to double:

  • Formula Explanation: Divide 72 by the annual interest rate (in percentage) to get the number of years needed for the investment to double.
  • Practical Use: This rule acts as a quick mental math tool for assessing potential growth rates in investments like Terumo.

Spotlight on Terumo

Their deep dive into Terumo reveals exciting insights about the company’s fundamentals:

  • Business Overview: Established as a leading manufacturer of medical technology, Terumo specializes in products for blood donation and transfusion systems. They operate globally and employ over 30,000 people.

  • Market Position: Terumo is described as a market leader with little to no competition in certain product domains. Phil's curiosity stems from the company’s potential strong moat in its niche market.

  • Financial Performance: Discussions about Terumo’s stock performance highlight its growth trajectory, with notable stock price increases since its initial public offering (IPO):

    • IPO price in 2009: $4
    • Current price: approximately $20
    • Averaging a 12% annual return

The Impact of Consistency in Financial Data

One of the significant discussions revolves around the consistency of Terumo's financial metrics:

  • Predictability: Phil introduces a predictive tool they are developing that evaluates the consistency of financial data and helps identify reliable growth rates.
  • Analysis of Growth Rates: A reliable growth rate is essential for investors. Phil elaborates on assessing long-term trends versus short-term spikes by analyzing Terumo’s historical financial performance.
  • Industry Growth: With an aging population and increased healthcare demands, the medical technology sector is projected to grow, further solidifying Terumo’s potential.

Key Insights on Value Investing

The Value of Research

The podcast reiterates the timeless importance of thorough research in investing:

  • Informed Investing: Phil encourages listeners to uncover deeper metrics beyond just stock prices to make educated investment choices.
  • Timeliness: He emphasizes the need for decisive action when uncovering potential investment opportunities to capitalize on market efficiencies before others do.

Consistency vs. Variability in Investments

Danielle questions the traditional value placed on consistency in Wall Street:

  • Subjective Measurements: Investing growth potential often relies on subjective assessments of historical data. The Towns discuss how modern tools can add a layer of objectivity.
  • Volatility Awareness: Phil mentions how understanding variability in earnings can lead to better decision-making.

Conclusion: Navigating the Investment Landscape

The discussion wraps up with Phil and Danielle reflecting on the intersection of modern technology, consistent financial analysis, and value investing principles. They encourage their listeners to look beyond surface-level metrics and engage deeply with financial data to inform their investment strategies effectively.

By focusing on companies like Terumo, investors can uncover opportunities in less crowded markets, applying both historical insights and predictive analytics to make sound investment decisions. This episode serves as a reminder that, in the fast-paced world of investing, thorough research combined with strategic thinking is critical for success.

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