Logo

2025 trends: aerosols, oil demand, and carbon removal

en

January 30, 2025

TLDR: This podcast features part one of Nat Bullard and Shayle discussing energy transition insights from his 200-page slide deck. Topics covered: accidental solar geoengineering, US fossil fuel exports, Chinese oil demand, ESG investing trends, carbon removal startups, and more.

1Ask AI

In the recent episode of Catalyst, host Shayle Kahn converses with Nat Bullard, co-founder of Halcyon and former chief content officer at BloombergNEF, to delve into key insights from Nat's extensive 200-page slide deck on energy trends for 2025. This first part of their two-part discussion covers several critical topics impacting the energy transition, including aerosols and climate effects, fossil fuel exports from the United States, Chinese oil demand, ESG investment trends, and the burgeoning landscape of carbon removal startups.

Key Discussion Topics

1. Accidental Solar Geoengineering and Aerosols

Nat discusses the dual role of aerosols in climate regulation, highlighting their unexpected cooling effects. Key insights include:

  • Cooling Effects of Aerosols: Aerosols have historically reduced warming by about 0.57°C, primarily through sulfur dioxide emissions from coal combustion.
  • Impact of Environmental Regulations: As regulations limit these emissions (particularly in maritime shipping), the natural cooling effect diminishes, potentially accelerating global warming.
  • China's Sulfur Dioxide Emissions: Significant declines in sulfur dioxide emissions in China (down from 40 million tons to 10 million tons annually) contribute to this dynamic, demonstrating how localized air quality improvements can have broader climatic repercussions.

2. U.S. Fossil Fuel Exports

With the U.S. focusing on energy dominance, Nat emphasizes the scale of its fossil fuel exports:

  • Energy Export Trends: The U.S. now exports almost as much energy as it imported in the early 1980s, making it a key player in global energy markets.
  • Natural Gas Leadership: As the world's leading natural gas producer and exporter, the U.S. is positioned to shape global energy flows significantly.

3. Chinese Oil Demand

The episode also examines the changing landscape of Chinese oil demand:

  • Peak Oil Demand: Current indicators suggest that China may have reached its peak oil demand, with implications for how global oil flows will adjust moving forward.
  • Transitioning Demand: The focus is shifting towards petrochemicals and aviation fuel rather than light-duty transport, indicating a transformation in consumption patterns.

4. Investigating ESG Trends

Nat and Shayle address the evolving landscape of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing:

  • Declining Rhetoric from Key Influencers: An analysis of Larry Fink's annual letters reveals a drop in mentions of climate and sustainability, reflecting a reduction in the fervor surrounding ESG initiatives.
  • Assets Under Management: Despite the decline in rhetoric, the assets under management in ESG funds have remained stable but not significantly increased, suggesting a need for renewed interest and performance assessment.

5. Carbon Removal Startups

A growing number of startups are venturing into carbon dioxide removal (CDR):

  • Explosion of Startups: With around 500 CDR startups founded in recent years, the market is becoming crowded.
  • Potential for Market Consolidation: The abundance of options may lead to a shakeout as investors struggle to distinguish viable projects among numerous players.
  • Voluntary Carbon Market Dynamics: Issuance in the voluntary carbon markets peaked recently but has since declined, signaling the necessity for stronger fundamental drivers to support continued growth in the sector.

Insights and Takeaways

  • The interplay between aerosol emissions and climate warming raises critical questions about future regulatory decisions and their broader climatic impacts.
  • The U.S. solidifies its role in global energy exports, contributing to shifting dynamics with countries like China, which may signal changes in the international oil demand landscape.
  • ESG's future depends on clarifying its value proposition in investment contexts, separating climate from broader ESG concerns may be critical for retaining investor interest.
  • The carbon removal startup sector showcases innovation and potential but also highlights the challenges of market overcrowding and the need for successful differentiation to attract investment.

In this packed episode, Kahn and Bullard provide valuable insights and analysis on the forces shaping the future of energy and climate technologies. The conversation continues in the second part, promising further exploration into the intricate relationships within the energy landscape.

Was this summary helpful?

Recent Episodes

More 2025 trends: DeepSeek, plug-in hybrids, and curtailment

More 2025 trends: DeepSeek, plug-in hybrids, and curtailment

Catalyst with Shayle Kann

Didn’t catch last week’s episode on Nat Bullard’s mega slide deck on energy transition? Start there.  This is the second half of our extended conversation with Nat, the former chief content officer at BloombergNEF and current co-founder at data insights company Halcyon.  In this episode, Shayle and Nat dig into topics like: Rising solar installations and stagnating wind Why we’re wasting so much renewable power amid skyrocketing load growth The rise of Chinese plug-in hybrids and exports Whether DeepSeek’s efficiency will temper or turbocharge load growth The woeful state of transmission buildout, despite demand for it Why one quarter of Virginia’s power demand comes from data centers Recommended resources Latitude Media: Does DeepSeek call the data center boom into question? Latitude Media: To get data centers online, one Virginia co-op is proposing a new business model Latitude Media: A dizzying year at the AI energy nexus Catalyst: Demystifying the Chinese EV market Reuters: Exclusive: Global solar capacity hits 2 TW on path to climate goal, data shows Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Daniel Woldorff. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is executive editor. Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. EnergyHub helps utilities build next-generation virtual power plants that unlock reliable flexibility at every level of the grid. See how EnergyHub helps unlock the power of flexibility at scale, and deliver more value through cross-DER dispatch with their leading Edge DERMS platform, by visiting energyhub.com. Catalyst is brought to you by Antenna Group, the public relations and strategic marketing agency of choice for climate and energy leaders. If you're a startup, investor, or global corporation that's looking to tell your climate story, demonstrate your impact, or accelerate your growth, Antenna Group's team of industry insiders is ready to help. Learn more at antennagroup.com.

February 06, 2025

Are utilities ready to fully harness demand flexibility? [partner content]

Are utilities ready to fully harness demand flexibility? [partner content]

Catalyst with Shayle Kann

When it comes to decarbonization planning, utilities tend to focus heavily on the supply side. But they may be overlooking one of their most powerful tools for managing a cleaner grid — demand flexibility. Demand response and time-varying rates have been in use for decades. But many utilities still haven't fully embraced demand flexibility in their planning. As utilities push toward higher penetrations of renewable energy, the ability to shift demand becomes increasingly vital for maintaining grid stability.  The challenge? It requires a fundamental shift in mindset: from controlling power plants with knobs and dials to empowering customers through smart rate design. "For years and years and decades and decades, the utilities' incentive has been to sell customers more of their product," says Scott Engstrom, chief customer officer at GridX. "But this idea of much more targeted demand flexibility as a requirement to manage a grid dominated by intermittent renewable resources is quite new." In this episode, produced in partnership with GridX, Scott Engstrom talks with Stephen Lacey about why demand flexibility deserves more attention — and how utilities can better harness it as they transition to cleaner energy. Learn more about how GridX delivers detailed analytics for time-of-use rates, helping utilities harness grid flexibility as part of their decarbonization efforts.

February 04, 2025

The climate-ag grab bag

The climate-ag grab bag

Catalyst with Shayle Kann

The podcast discusses solutions for feeding a growing global population while minimizing land usage and emissions in agriculture. Topics include drawbacks of industrial agriculture, need for calorie growth per acre, why minimizing land use with industrial farms may cut more emissions than alternatives like regenerative farming, potential solutions like biofertilizers, cultivated meat, and addressing food waste, and the problematic energy usage of vertical farming.

January 23, 2025

FOAK tales

FOAK tales

Catalyst with Shayle Kann

In this podcast, Shayle discusses with Mario Fernandez, head of Breakthrough Energy’s FOAK finance program Catalyst, about convincing conservative infrastructure investors to support first-of-a-kind projects in industries like renewable energy and carbon capture. Topics include creating scale-up paths for pilot, demo, then FOAK project stages; managing investment runways with limited funds; and structuring flexible offtake agreements while securing customers.

January 16, 2025

AI

Ask this episodeAI Anything

Catalyst with Shayle Kann

Hi! You're chatting with Catalyst with Shayle Kann AI.

I can answer your questions from this episode and play episode clips relevant to your question.

You can ask a direct question or get started with below questions -

Sign In to save message history