This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK. BBC sounds, music, radio, podcasts. Welcome to 2025. And at the start of this new year, we thought here on the pod squad or the today podcast that it would be a good idea to do something almost as foolish as making a resolution. I've never managed to keep a resolution. So frankly, I've stopped making them.
And it's equally unlikely that the predictions we make in this episode won't stand the test of time. But we're going to give it a go because trying to work out what might happen in the next 12 months does tell you quite a lot, even if you sometimes get it wrong.
So what can we expect from 2025? We're going to tell you what we think might just happen and we're also going to hear from the one and only Gary Richardson who joined us for our look back at 2024 but just couldn't quite help looking ahead to 2025.
He's going to win the Australian Open, but if he does, will he then retire? And a lot of people that I've spoken to on the circuit say, if he does, when you see him towards the end of January on the court in Australia, in Melbourne, he might say, I've won and enough is enough. It's going to be really, really interesting. Should we find out who he's talking about? Yeah, let's do it.
Hello, it's Emol in the Today podcast studio. And it's Nick. Happy New Year. Every week we take a step back and look at a big story at greater length and in more detail than we get time for on the mornings today program. You can listen on demand wherever and whenever you want at your leisure. So please do consider joining our club. Download the BBC Sounds app on your phone. Search for the Today podcast and just hit subscribe. You'll then get a pop-up alert every time Nick and I release an episode.
I was set, as you were, quite a big challenge, actually, by the producer of this podcast. Think of something, implication something original. Think something that hasn't been said by somebody else. Think what an extraordinary thing to ask about what the next 12 months might bring. So I was mulling, because we'll talk about Trump, which is obviously the big development in the world in this year, in a moment.
I was trying to think about here. And here's a theory for you. A thesis? A thesis. I think this may well turn out to be a year of popular protest. Why do I say that? I say it because, unless Donald Trump can produce a Trump bounce in the global economy, and by the way, there are some people who think he might well do that, but unless he can do that, it seems to me we are doomed to face in this country as well as large parts of the rest of the world.
low growth, continuing stagnating living standards, slightly higher than expected inflation, albeit much lower than it once was, and therefore higher than expected interest rates too. And this government has already announced a spending review, which it means it's going to take some pretty uncomfortable choices. And it seems to me that as we head for the first anniversary of the general election,
This Labour government is going to tot up yet more groups that it disappoints or enrages. We saw recently the disappointment of the waspy women. The women who for years have been supported by Labour MPs, not least Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, saying that there had been an injustice in the way that the state pension had been changed and they hadn't been compensated.
they're not getting compensated by this government because it says it hasn't got enough money to do it. I thought about labour and this change of heart.
Well, it's disappointing. Labor MPs have been very supportive when in opposition and obviously we expected that once they came into power that that support would continue and indeed it does. We've seen the anger of the farmers, the rabbit inheritance tax and the way in which their subsidies are organised. Morning, I'm Chris from the BBC. How angry are you? Fairly angry.
We've seen the anger of the pensioners. The first group to lose money is a result of the winter fuel allowance being cut. And it seems to me that there is a guarantee there will be many, many more groups who had hopes that a change of government after 40 years of conceptive rule would mean the cash tills were ringing for them.
And they're not going to ring, not least in the public sector, where yes, there were some pretty big public sector pay rises in the immediate weeks after the general election. But already government is signaling you only get a pay rise above inflation. If there's increased productivity and already the likes of the general sector, the National Education Union are beginning to say, hold on a second. We thought this was going to be a period of catch up after the years of austerity. So my instinct is more protest.
What are the triggers for those protests going to be? Well, we've got a spending review in the spring. We've got local elections in May. I tell you, he's getting very excited about local elections. It's the leadership of the Reform Party. We're going to need over 2,000 candidates. We're going to need you organised behind them, helping them. I genuinely believe if we get next May right,
We can produce a result that is truly astonishing. Is there a universe in which perhaps aided by a significant cash donation from the richest man in the world in Elon Musk reform performed well in the local elections? There are very, very important elections actually next year, 2026 in Wales, which could be
one of the areas that reform really target and thrive in. And I also think, Nick, the point you say about running out of money, you sort of think, what are the issues of policy? What are the areas where you could imagine people saying, no, thank you to a current policy direction of the Labour Party? And I'd suggest too, this year 2025 could be, depending on when the figures are collated, it could be the year that depending on the numbers are coming out of China,
Global emissions of CO2 have peaked. This comes at a time when Britain is responsible for about 1% of CO2 emissions, China for about 30%. I think that if those emissions peak, a lot of people might look at some of the net zero policies of the Labour government, in particular advanced by Ed Miliband, and say, you know what?
Even if you say they're going to save us money in the long term, in the short term they're going to cost us, no thank you. Another area that I think we'll have to see whether or not Labour have done the thinking on this whilst they were in opposition for 14 years. But another area that's going to be very sensitive is the amount of money we spent on welfare. We talked in an episode a few weeks back with Jose Manuel Baroso, former leader of the European Commission about the fundamental trends reshaping Europe,
where there's a big demographic change, very fast aging populations. We've plugged that lack of workers with lots and lots of migration. There's less and less support for that. How do you fix that hole? You've got to reform welfare. You've got to get people out of social security or benefits or welfare.
and into work and therefore things like the two-child benefit cap and how we spend money on welfare is going to be a big trigger. So net zero and welfare are two of the policy areas I'm looking at this year in a big way. Local elections spending reviews could be big triggers and watch out for a reform UK surge. That's not us talking it up. It's just what the polls tell you. Yes, but what's interesting about the policy areas that you just mentioned is a reminder that you may well get protests on the left.
as well as on the right. That's right. Remember, we talk about reform surging, which they are in the polls. Broadly speaking, everybody stayed flat in those opinion polls, but Labour have gone down and reform have gone up. But look at Scotland, for example. It's the SMP you've picked up and that John Sweeney looked like things were pretty dreadful for the SMPs on course. It's a long way away. Things could change, but on course, to retain power in the Scottish government and the Scottish Parliament.
in the elections in 2026. And it might well be that there is a gap open on the left as well as on the right. People are angry that public sector workers are not getting the pay rises, that they want people who are angry about tough decisions on welfare, for example.
people who might think that, for example, the two-char benefit cap was going to be lifted by labor and doesn't get lifted if, as I suspect, it doesn't get lifted in that spending round. So there were a series of things that may produce protest on the left if
There is any slowing down on climate change, for example, young people who support the Greens in larger numbers may protest, as well as the process on the right that had got more attention in recent times, partly because of the success parties right across Europe on the right, partly because of Trump, partly because of the success of Reform UK here. But I had to remind myself the other day, we often talk about this rise of the populace, right? It was the left that won in France in the parliamentary.
I mean, the right did very well at Lebens party as well, but it was the combined force of the left. So I think protests will not come from one direction.
Absolutely right. In just a few weeks as well, we're going to have the extraordinary scene of an American president being inaugurated. And, interestingly, someone who will definitely be there is Nigel Farage, who has been invited by Donald Trump and will be very keen, I'm sure, with his big social media following to let us know how he got on. It's worth saying, perfect indication of just how much politics matters, why people like you and me, and expend so much for our lives. Thinking about it, in a Kamala Harris world, had Kamala Harris won the presidential election,
the world will be looking at events and forecasting events in a very, very different way. What can we say about a world governed by Donald Trump? Well, he's essentially extremely unpredictable. But there are things that he has said, commitments he has made, which he will not want to resolve from. Not that he has to be taken literally, not that he necessarily will follow through, and all of them. But there are promises that he has made, which he will be judged on, and he knows he'll be judged on. And one of the areas where he's made big promises is the Ukraine-Russia conflict, or to give it his proper name, a war.
Too many people being killed. That is a war. That's too many people. You've got to make a deal. And who has to make a deal? Donald Trump has said he will end it on day one. I'm telling you now that he won't. But when you have a situation where everyone involved stands to gain more from that war ending than from that war continuing, you would think there was a kind of remorseless logic to politics, which would suggest that that war ought to end. Why do you think they all have something to gain?
Well, there's an interesting, that's a very, very good question. I mean, Ukraine has something to gain because it's currently losing. Donald Trump has something to gain because geopolitical instability is bad for America. Constructive relationship with Putin and Russia is good for America. But the thing about Russia, which is interesting, is some people would say that Vladimir Putin has benefited from this war because it gives him legitimacy, he's a war present at home. There's quite a lot of people in the know that I speak to say that Russia's economy is really tanking.
If you could end up with a negotiated settlement which involves Russia winning, Putin would be able to legitimately say that he's one because he's grabbed a bit more of Ukraine's land.
Doesn't that sort of get him what he wanted? Doesn't that sort of get him a moral and historic victory where he's expanded Russia? I think that might be the case. Terrible for Ukraine, I think, by the way, and potentially for the world because a sovereign European nation would have had some of its territory stolen by violence. Well, it certainly might allow him to claim that he's had a victory.
But I've always thought there are two different things being fought over here. One is simply territory and the territory in the east that he wants to control as well as crime here, which he took in 2014. The east of Ukraine, yeah. But the other big question is which way Ukraine faces in inverted commas?
does it start to see itself as a westernised country? In its clearest form, as a member of NATO, the defence alliance, which would be entitled to protection by all other members of NATO, if Russia was to invade again. But short of that, there's membership long term of the EU, and short of that, there's just a sense that it is a western nation. Now, the real threat that Putin perceived was that rather than the territory.
the perception that Ukraine was becoming a country turning its back on Russia and the Russian Empire and turning towards Brussels, Paris, Berlin, NATO, the United States, NATO and all the rest. So it seems to me that's where the argument is. And if Putin thinks he's gained territory but lost the political argument about where Ukraine goes next,
It seems we might not be willing to do a deal unless he feels forced to for the reasons that you've said. That's very, very interesting. In terms of what else we know is coming in this incredibly unpredictable geopolitical outlook, I'm afraid this is the year that it's highly likely based on current evidence that a famine will be called and labelled as such in Sudan.
I have to say, and I hope I can say this in this period of impartiality. I feel proud to work at a news organization that sent its chief international correspondent, Lee's, to set to Sudan, a country where some 25 million people face acute humanitarian need. There's still an accurate taste in the air. Smell this place was burning.
The shops are charred, the doors blow over. This is where gunmen went on a rampage. This is where a massacre happened, routine rape, killing, ethnic cleansing, Arab fighters,
The rapid support forces their allies against non Arabs. It's been the story of death. It was widely described towards the end of last year as the worst humanitarian catastrophe in history amidst stiff competition. That's something that we'll obviously keep an eye on at something on the today program. We've returned to time and again, albeit Sudan is a very, very difficult country to report from.
Yes, there are so many foreign stories that we're going to have to keep an eye on, not just Ukraine and Sudan, obviously the Middle East. And whether, as I suggested the other day, Israel becomes a much more dominant player in the Middle East, because although it's lost so many friends abroad, it's got the undying hostility. It seems to be of a generation of young people in the West.
on the stage. In the Middle East it is seen as the victor against Iran, against Syria, against its opponents in Lebanon, and to some extent against Hamas in Gaza as well. We'll be watching the politics of Europe that we discuss with Josie Manuel Barrozo a little while ago, and whether the election of a new German Chancellor, together with the ongoing crisis in France, is resolved to give Europe some real leadership
And then there are some of the themes, I think we'll talk about this year, because of Trump tariffs. Every damn thing that they sell into the United States is going to have like a 25% tariff until they stop drugs. Tariffs are going to be a big part of the global conversation. He's going to introduce them. He says on eye-watering scale, but we don't know whether that is talk.
a mere threat to get his way or whether we will actually do it, but it will certainly reshape the conversation about globalization and trade. And then one other I'll throw to you is the ex-media tech. When we're beyond politics, beyond geopolitics and wars, still be talking about the great questions of tech, whether it's AI, whether it's control of social media, whether it's the desperation of governments to get a grip on the great global corporations that dominate our lives.
What's so interesting about technology and the fact that artificial intelligence on the one hand and quantum computing, which we should probably all talk about a bit more and try to understand a bit better, those things are accelerating away. There's been this massive trillions of dollars of cloud in. But one of the things that's really interesting about how the relationship between technology and politics has changed,
is it used to be, even five or six years ago, that in America and the West, tech companies often saw themselves in opposition to democratic governments. It was technology versus democracy. Silicon Valley often was at war with Washington and regulators. You remember those notorious sessions where Mark Zuckerberg and other tech leaders were interrogated by congressmen and senators. Mr Zuckerberg, let me start with you. Did I hear you say in your opening statement that there's no link between mental health and social media use?
Senator, what I said is I think it's important to look at the science. I know it's people widely talk about this as if that is something that's already been proven.
Whereas in China, the tech companies are seen as an extension of the government, Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, very much in bed with government. Something has changed. And that is that particularly through Elon Musk, but also through other very influential people like Peter Teal, who's a big Trump backer, like people like Mark Andreessen, who's a very, very big investor, there seems to be a much closer relationship now in America between Washington and the tech companies, a much more if you like.
Chinese relationships. So that's worth keeping iron. And in that context, of course, we've got to keep an eye on all through the events in Taiwan. Taiwan could be the dog that didn't bark as it were. This prosperous, this leafy, beautiful island off the South China Sea, which China has talked about belonging. Xi Jinping has talked about as belonging, essentially, to mainland China. Taiwan wants to be an independent sovereign democracy, affiliated with China, trading with China, but independent.
and China thinks otherwise. And the big thing about Taiwan is it has all of these, it has something called the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which is very, very powerful, something like 98% of all these little chips that power all computers all around the world come from there. So we'll keep an eye on that too. Plenty to keep us busy.
Now when former Today Sports presenter Gary Richardson came in at the end of last year to give us his review of sport in 2024, he talked about Andy Murray's retirement and how Murray is now interestingly coaching his old rival and indeed friend Novak Djokovic ahead of the Australian Open which starts later this month. Yes and during that conversation he made a prediction about Novak Djokovic.
which we thought you might want to hear. They're good mates, they play together as juniors. I'm going to give you a figure now, 24. That's the number of Grand Slams that Novak Djokovic has won. Why is it significant? He wants 25 and the reason, the great Australian player, Margaret Court, is also on 24. Now, Novak Djokovic is 37. He knows the meter is running.
And he could win the Australian Open. He likes a celebrity coach in the past. He's had people like Boris Becker, Andre, Agassi, Gorin even Isovitch. The Agassi relationship didn't work quite so well. And he's brought in Andy Murray. And why has he done that? Well, as I say, they played together as juniors.
Significantly, Murray has beaten Djokovic. He beat him in a Wimbledon final. So he knows mentally, you are really, really strong. Obviously, he's strong. But really significantly, Andy Murray has also beaten Janik Sinha, the world number one. And he's also beaten Carlos Alcaras, a real rising star. Those two players have won all the Grand Slams. And what Novak Djokovic knows, Murray
will analyze, go through the data, and he might just say, Sinner, play to his backhand, Alcaraz, do this, because Andy Murray loves that sort of stuff. Is it also an age thing, which is, in a sense, Murray has played, you know, at an age, and also, frankly, because of the incredible medical conditions he's had to overcome,
that he might be able to say, here's how you can adapt your game as you get older and inevitably a bit slower. Absolutely. And the other thing, it's a good point you make, Nick. They're both 37 and they were born within a week of one another. Yeah, just all within a week of one another. Here's the question for you. And, you know, get me back in 2025 if I'm right.
Novak Djokovic, is he going to win the Australian Open, but if he does, will he then retire? And a lot of people that I've spoken to on the circuit say if he does.
when you see him towards the end of January on set on the court in Australia, in Melbourne, he might say, I've won and enough is enough. It's going to be really, really interesting. Then you can get the retirement interview because a model, of course, did a bit of it. Yes, I'd give old Nova a call. I mean, I think he's unquestionably, this is definitely not impartial. I think he is the greatest player of them all. And to win as many as he's won, more than anyone else, in an era of rougher, Nadal and Roger Federer and Andy Murray,
It's just completely astonishing. He likes Australia, doesn't he? He's won eight or nine titles. He has. I mean, Murray played, I think, in four finals against Jockovic. Murray played five all together. But yeah, he absolutely loves it. But of course, you know, Margaret Court 24. And I think she's won something like 60 doubles titles that the whole total gets up in the 60s. We'll see where the Gary's right. And we might have to get him back in fact, tease him if he's not. I'm sure Gary's right. He's always right.
Nick, we like to be cheerful on this podcast, don't we? We're often accused with this growing worries about news avoidance that the news gets people down. People always say to me, I switch on the radio, tell me how all for the world is. I'm going to end with a couple of reasons to be cheerful, okay? One is that I read. I'm not going to pretend for a moment to be expert in this. I read that 2025 is a very, very big year in what some ironies called one of the holy grails in modern medicine.
And that's the idea of cancer vaccines. Cancer vaccine has been talked about for many, many decades. I've been tried and failed. That's the nature of scientific experimentation. This is the year that we get some key results in many of the early, very exciting cancer vaccines, particularly on things like pancreatic cancer. And who knows? The idea that you could go to a doctor, you could go to a medical facility and get an injection and it would stop you getting a cancer is a thrilling prospect for billions of people. That might just happen. And the other reason to be cheerful, I'll go on.
The other big thing is cancer blood tests. Yes, of course. There are a lot of cancers, so don't get your hopes up too high. There'll be some that aren't sorted by this and others though, but there's a lot of very good work being done on taking a simple blood test and saying you either have gone cancer or you've got the possibility of getting it, which will mean you get treated earlier and it's very simple. Get treated early, you survive. Early detection is everything. And for people who don't know, Nick is saying that having
The other thing to say, which is a broad kind of optimistic thought, it is true to say that for most of humanity, and I know it doesn't always cut through in the politics and the way we cover it on the Today program and elsewhere, but for most of humanity, there's never been a better time to be alive.
You know, 100 years ago, a warm shower was an absolute luxury for most people. These days, more than half of humanity has access to that warm shower. If you look at most of the metrics to do with infant mortality, to do with health outcomes, to do with longevity,
even to look at wealth when the incidence of absolute poverty in different populations, things are getting better for most people in most places. It doesn't always feel like that if you listen to the news, but I don't want to go Stephen Pinker on our pod squad and he's the M.
He's one of the rational optimists together with people like Matt Ridley wrote a book called The Better Angels Our Nature. Loads and loads, reams of data showing that life's getting better for most humanity. It may not feel like that, but it's worth having the perspective to know that things are getting better. There was a book written a world by Hans Rosling called Factfulness. Fantastic book. The late Hans Rosling. Yeah, which was our series of reasons. There is one problem with it there. Because while it says
while it produces lots of facts that we can all celebrate about the increased standard of living and the eradication of lots of diseases that kill people.
The reason people feel miserable here is it's generally an increased standard of living for people who live somewhere else. So it is about the fact that in India, in China, in Indonesia, in large parts of Africa, people have riches that they once couldn't dream of. I don't mean riches, they're billionaires. I mean, they have a fridge, they have a car, they have reasonable public health in a way that was unthinkable a while back. But of course,
That's come alongside the relative decline and it is relative decline of people living in Western industrialized countries who were used to the idea of getting richer every year and every generation and are now finding it very difficult to get used to the idea that that might not be happening anymore. You've got any reasons to be optimistic.
As always, Man City might not win the Premier League. Yes, I mean, that's already absurd, surely, but unfortunately for me, Liverpool might win it instead. I am actually an optimist. I always look at the day's news thinking, well, that's pretty grim, but look, that might happen. I think...
Do you think I think the way to deal with this idea that people have that they're disempowered, that they have no control over what's happening in the world, is that there's always something that comes out of a piece of news thing. Oh, hello. That might have been the development and somebody will gain from that. I don't want to be a Pandora sin, but I think there's still plenty of reasons to feel cheerful about the world. Here, here.
Well, whatever happens this year, we will be here to help make sense of it all. Yes, we'll keep bringing you in-depth analysis of the bigger stories and insights from behind the scenes of the Today program. To make sure you don't miss an episode search for the Today podcast on BBC Sounds and hit subscribe. That way, if you're listening on the app and you've got push notifications on your phone turned on, you'll get an alert every time we release a new episode. We'll be back next week. Speak to you then. Goodbye. Bye.
World of Secrets is where untold stories are exposed and in this new series, we investigate the dark side of the wellness industry. Following the story for women who joined a yoga school, only to uncover a world she never expected. I feel that I have no other choice. The only thing I can do is to speak about this.
where the hope of spiritual breakthroughs leaves people vulnerable to exploitation. You just get sucked in so gradually and it's done so skillfully that you don't realise. World of Secrets, the Bad Guru. Listen first on BBC Sounds.
Yoga is more than just exercise. It's the spiritual practice that millions swear by. And in 2017, Miranda, a university tutor from London, joins a yoga school that promises profound transformation. It felt a really safe and welcoming space. After the yoga classes, I felt amazing.
But soon, that calm, welcoming atmosphere leads to something far darker, a journey that leads to allegations of grooming, trafficking and exploitation across international borders. I don't have my passport, I don't have my phone, I don't have my bank cards, I have nothing. The passport being taken, the being in a house and not feeling like they can leave.
World of Secrets is where untold stories are unveiled and hidden realities are exposed. In this new series, we're confronting the dark side of the wellness industry, where the hope of a spiritual breakthrough gives way to disturbing accusations. You just get sucked in so gradually.
and it's done so skillfully that you don't realise. And it's like this, the secret that's there. I wanted to believe that, you know, that
Whatever they were doing, even if it seemed gross to me, was for some spiritual reason that I couldn't yet understand. Revealing the hidden secrets of a global yoga network, I feel that I have no other choice. The only thing I can do is to speak about this and to put my reputation and everything else on the line. I want truth and justice.
and further people to not be hurt for things to be different in the future. To bring it into the light and almost alchemise some of that evil stuff that went on and take back the power. World of Secrets Season 6, the Bad Guru. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.
